宏观经济学第十版ppt课件.ppt

15 1 15 2 15 TheDemandforMoney ItemItemItemEtc 15 3 Introduction Whatismoney Whydoesanyonewantit Ineconomics money mediumofexchangeWhateverisacceptedinexchangeInU S M1 currencyandcheckabledeposits comesclosesttodefiningmeansofpaymentAttheendof2005 M1 4 596perpersonDebatewhetherbroadermeasure M2 mightbettermeetthedefinitionofmoneyinamodernpaymentsystemDemandformoneyreferstothestockofassetsheldascash checkingaccounts andcloselyrelatedassets specificallynotgenericwealthorincome 15 4 ComponentsoftheMoneyStock IntheU S therearetwomainmonetaryaggregates M1andM2M1comprisesthoseclaimsthatcanbeuseddirectly instantly andwithoutrestrictions LIQUIDM2includesM1 plussomelessliquidassets ex savingsaccountsandmoneymarketfunds Asliquidityofanassetdecreases theinterestyieldincreasesAtypicaleconomictradeoff inordertogetmoreliquidity assetholdershavetosacrificeyield 15 5 TheFunctionsofMoney Therearefourtraditionalfunctionsofmoney MediumofexchangeMoneyisusedtopayforgoodsandservicesEliminatestheneedfora doublecoincidenceofwants StoreofvalueAnassetthatmaintainsvalueIfmoneywerenotastoreofvalue itwouldnotbeusedasamediumofexchangeUnitofaccountTheunitinwhichpricesarequotedStandardofdeferredpaymentMoneyunitsareusedinlongtermtransactions ex loans 15 6 TheDemandforMoney Theory Thedemandformoneyisthedemandforrealmoneybalances peopleholdmoneyforitspurchasingpowerTwoimplications Realmoneydemandisunchangedwhenthepricelevelincreases andallrealvariables suchastheinterestrate realincome andrealwealth remainunchangedEquivalently nominalmoneydemandincreasesinproportiontotheincreaseinthepricelevel giventherealvariablesjustspecified Anindividualisfreefrommoneyillusionifachangeinthelevelofprices holdingallrealvariablesconstant leavestheperson srealbehavior includingrealmoneydemand unchanged 15 7 TheDemandforMoney Theory ThetheoriescoveredherecorrespondtoKeynes sfamousthreemotivesforholdingmoney Thetransactionsmotive whichisthedemandformoneyarisingfromtheuseofmoneyinmakingregularpaymentsTheprecautionarymotive whichisthedemandformoneytomeetunforeseencontingenciesThespeculativemotive whicharisesfromuncertaintiesaboutthemoneyvalueofotherassetsthatanindividualcanhold Transactionandprecautionarymotives mainlydiscussingM1Speculativemotive M2 aswellasnon moneyassets 15 8 TransactionDemand ThetransactiondemandformoneyarisesfromthelackofsynchronizationofreceiptsanddisbursementsYouarenotlikelytogetpaidattheexactmomentyouneedtomakeapayment keepmoneyonhandtomakepurchasesbetweenpayperiodsThereisatradeoffbetweentheamountofinterestanindividualforgoesbyholdingmoneyandthecostsofholdingasmallamountofmoneyBenefitsofkeepingsmallamountsofmoneyonhandisinterestearnedonmoneyleftinthebankCostofkeepingsmallamountsofmoneyisthecostandinconvenienceofmakingtripstothebanktowithdrawmore 15 9 TransactionDemand Supposethefollowing Y 1800 monthPersonspendstheYevenlyoverthemonth atarateof 60 dayAlternative1 Personcouldkeeptheentire 1800incashandspend 60 dayCashbalancesfallssmoothlyfrom 1800to 0attheendofthemonthAveragebalanceofForgoneinterestof Alternative 2 Personcoulddepositentireamount andeachdaytaketheneeded 60outofthebank earninterestonmoneyleftinthebankoverthecourseofthemonthCashbalancesfallfrom 1800 30tozeroeverydayAveragebalanceofForgoneinterestof 15 10 TransactionDemand Ingeneral StartingincomeofYntripstothebank TheaveragecashbalanceisEachtripscoststc Thecombinedcostoftripsplusforgoneinterestis Choosentominimizecostsandcomputetheaveragemoneyholdings Baumol Tobinformulaforthedemandformoney 1 15 11 TransactionDemand TheBaumol Tobinmodelisamodelofthetransactiondemandformoney Demandformoney 1 Decreaseswiththeinterestrate2 Increaseswiththecostoftransactions3 Increaseswithincome 15 12 ThePrecautionaryMotive TheBaumol TobinmodelignoreduncertaintyPeopleareuncertainaboutthepaymentstheymightwantorhavetomake thereisdemandformoneyfortheseuncertaineventsThemoremoneyapersonholds thelesslikelyheorsheistoincurthecostsofilliquidityThemoremoneyapersonholds themoreinteresthe shewillgiveup similartradeoffencounteredwithtransactionsdemandformoneyAddedconsiderationisthatgreateruncertaintyaboutreceiptsandexpendituresincreasesthedemandformoneyTechnologyandthestructureofthefinancialsystemareimportantdeterminantsofprecautionarydemand 15 13 SpeculativeDemandforMoney Speculativedemandformoneyfocusesonthestore of valuefunctionofmoney concentratesonroleofmoneyintheinvestmentportfolioofanindividualWealthheldinspecificassets portfolioDuetouncertainty unwisetoholdentireportfolioinasingleriskyasset diversifyassetholdingsMoneyisasafeassetDemandformoneydependsupontheexpectedyieldsandriskinessoftheyieldsonotherassets JamesTobin IncreaseintheopportunitycostofholdingmoneylowersmoneydemandIncreaseintheriskinessofthereturnsonotherassetsincreasesmoneydemand 15 14 EmpiricalEstimates Empiricalworkestablishesfouressentialpropertiesofmoneydemand Thedemandformoneybalancesrespondsnegativelytotherateofinterest Anincreaseininterestratesreducesthedemandformoney Thedemandformoneyincreaseswiththelevelofrealincome Theshort runresponsivenessofmoneydemandtochangesintheinterestratesandincomeisconsiderablylessthanthelong runresponse Thelong runresponsesareestimatedtobeabout5timesthesizeoftheshort runresponses Thedemandfornominalmoneybalanceisproportionaltothepricelevel Thereisnomoneyillusion inotherwords thedemandformoneyisademandforrealbalances 15 15 TheIncomeVelocity Theincomevelocityofmoney thenumberoftimesthestockofmoneyisturnedoverperyearinfinancingtheannualflowofincome ItisequaltotheratioofnominalGDPtothenominalmoneystock or 2 canalsobeinterpretedastheratioofnominalincometonominalmoneystockORtheratioofrealincometorealbalances 15 16 TheIncomeVelocity TheconceptofvelocityisimportantlargelybecauseitisaconvenientwayoftalkingaboutmoneydemandDemandforrealbalancesis Substitutingintoequation 2 velocitycanbewrittenas Moneydemandcanbewrittenas Velocityofmoneyis Thisgivesaconvenientwayofthinkingabouttheeffectofinterestratesonmoneydemand 15 17 TheIncomeVelocity Figure15 1showsM2velocity leftscale andtheTreasurybillinterestrate rightscale M2isrelativelystable aslefthandscaleisonlybetween1 5and2 2overa40yearperiodVelocityhasastrongtendencytoriseandfallwithmarketinterestratesOverthelastdecadeM2velocityhasbecomemuchlessstablethaninthepast Whenmonetaryaggregatesbecomerelativelyunstable monetaryauthorityshouldusetheinterestrateratherthanmoneysupplyasthedirectoperatingtarget InsertFigure15 1here 15 18 TheQuantityTheory Thequant