宏观经济计量与核算ppt课件.ppt

1 二 宏观经济计量与核算MEASURINGANATION SINCOME 2 国民收入帐户 投入产出表 资金循环表 国际收支表 国民资产负债表 国民帐户体系ASYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS 3 RichardStone 理查德 斯通 1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖 二战期间 完成 战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计 白皮书 时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说 我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中 1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任 1950年 受联合国统计委员会委托 出版 国民帐户体系 SNA 1968年修订后正式出版 1975年出版 社会和人口统计系统 SSDS Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics 4 WassilyLeontief 沃西里 里昂惕夫 1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖 1906年出生在圣彼得堡 1929年任中国铁道部顾问 1931年进入美国国民经济研究局 NBER 1946年哈佛大学经济学教授 1941年出版 美国经济结构 1919 1929 第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析 1966年出版 投入产出经济学 5 Grossdomesticproduct GDP isameasureoftheincome 收入 andexpenditures 支出 ofaneconomy Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservices 最终产品和劳务 producedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod GrossDomesticProduct国内生产总值 6 ImportantFeaturesofGDPGDP的重要特征 Outputisvaluedatmarketprices Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods notintermediategoods thevalueiscountedonlyonce Itincludesbothtangiblegoods有形商品 food clothing cars andintangibleservices无形服务 haircuts housecleaning doctorvisits 7 ImportantFeaturesofGDP Itincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced nottransactions交易involvinggoodsproducedinthepast Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry 8 ImportantFeaturesofGDP Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime usuallyayearoraquarter threemonths 9 WhatIsCountedinGDP 哪些经济活动应计入GDP GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegally合法的inmarkets 10 WhatIsNotCountedinGDP 哪些经济活动不能计入GDP GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly非法的 suchasillegaldrugs 11 GrossNationalProduct国民生产总值 Grossnationalproduct GNP isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation spermanentresidents常住居民 regardlessofwheretheyare 12 ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome另外三个收入变量 NetNationalProduct NNP 国民生产净值PersonalIncome个人收入DisposablePersonalIncome个人可支配收入 13 NetNationalProduct NNP 国民生产净值 Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation折旧 14 PersonalIncome个人收入 Theincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive 15 DisposablePersonalIncome个人可支配收入 Theincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment 16 GrossNationalProduct FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates 17 GNP NationalandPerCapitaIncome FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates 18 NationalIncome FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates 19 TheFourComponentsofGDP构成GDP的四个要素 GDP Y isthesumofthefollowing Consumption C Investment I GovernmentPurchases G NetExports NX Y C I G NX 20 TheFourComponentsofGDP Consumption C 消费 Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoodsandservices withtheexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing Investment I 投资 Thespendingoncapitalequipment inventories andstructures includingnewhousing 21 TheFourComponentsofGDP GovernmentPurchases G 政府购买 Thespendingongoodsandservicesbylocal state andfederalgovernments Doesnotincludetransferpaymentsbecausetheyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsorservices NetExports NX 净出口 Exportsminusimports 22 BreakdownofU S GDP 1996 23 BreakdownofU S GDP 1996 Consumption69 24 Investment15 BreakdownofU S GDP 1996 Consumption68 25 Consumption68 GovernmentPurchases19 BreakdownofU S GDP 1996 Investment15 26 NetExports 1 BreakdownofU S GDP 1996 Consumption68 Investment15 GovernmentPurchases19 27 RealversusNominalGDP实际GDP与名义GDP NominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices现行价格 RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices固定价格 28 RealversusNominalGDP AnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator缩减指数 29 价格指数 PriceIndex 拉斯佩雷斯 Laspeyres 指数 帕斯卡 Pascke 指数 30 GDPDeflatorGDP缩减指数 TheGDPdeflatormeasuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear基年 IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced 31 GDPDeflator TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows 32 GDPDeflator TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows 33 ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDP NominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows 34 ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDP NominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows 35 ConsumerPriceIndex消费者价格指数 Theconsumerpriceindex CPI isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostofliving生活费用overtime Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber 36 ConsumerPriceIndex WhentheCPIrises thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving 37 TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator消费者价格指数与GDP缩减指数 EconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo 38 TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator TheCPI includesonlyconsumergoods includesimports ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices固定的一篮子商品和劳务 39 TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator TheGDPPriceDeflator includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically excludesimports ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices 40 GDPandEconomicWell BeingGDP和经济福利 GDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell beingofasociety GDPperpersontellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy 41 GDPandEconomicWell Being HigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving生活水准 GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthehappinessorqualityoflife生活快乐和质量 however 42 GDPandE