价格形态百科-楔形(2).doc

44、Wedges, FallingRESULTS SNAPSHOTAppearanceA downward price trend bounded by two intersecting, down-sloping trendlines.Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term(up to 3 months) bullish consolidationFailure Rate10%Failure Rate if waited for breakout2%Average Rise43%, with most likely rise between 20% and 30%Volume TrendDownwardPremature Breakout27%Throwbacks47%Percentage meeting predicted price target88%Surprising FindingThe most powerful breakouts occur between 50% and 80% of the distance to the apex (centered around 65%).See alsoPennantsThere are no outstanding surprises among the statistics shown in the Results Snapshot. The failure rate for falling wedges is low at 10%. This low failure rate, coupled with an average rise of 43% and a likely rise of between 20% and 30%, suggests it is a profitable formation to trade. However, it is also quite rare. The percentage of falling wedges meeting the predicted price target, at 88%, is very high but then the benchmark is easy. Prices need only rise above the top of the formation to hit the target. My statistics show the most powerful breakouts occur at 50% to 80% of the distance to the apex (the center of this range being two-thirds of the way to the apex). By powerful, I mean that stocks falling within the range show larger gains, on average.数据快照里没有什么令人惊异的统计数据。失败率只有10%。如此低的失败率，而平均涨幅达到43%(最可能是20%到30%)，下降楔形是一个可获利的交易形态。然而，它又很少出现。？。TourFigure 44.1 shows a falling wedge. Prices began declining in January 1992 from a high of 75K to the wedge start at 52/4. Prices recovered somewhata retrace in a downtrendrounded over and headed lower. Prices tagged a new low in late July and bounced upward again. This time, the upward momentum did not carry quite as far as before. Another up and down oscillation occurred during mid-August just before prices finally reached a new low. If you draw a trendline along the bottom of the minor lows and another along the tops, you see the familiar shape of a falling wedge. Falling wedges are rare formations that have price movements bounded by two down-sloping trendlines. When drawn on the chart, the picture looks like a wedge tilted downward.图44.1展示了一个下降楔形。1992年1月开始，价格从75K起开始下降。到52 1/4时价格开始反弹-下降趋势中的反弹-反弹上去形成略低的头部。价格在七月底创新低之后反弹回去。这次，上行运动没有上次持久。八月中旬，再次上下的波动价格最终创出新低。分别绘出高点和低点的连线，可以看到一个熟悉的下降楔形。下降楔形是个少见的形态，价格运动在两条下行趋势线之间往复。从图表上来看，价格形态像是向右下倾斜的楔子。Once prices break out upward, they rise and quickly climb above the top of the formation. Many times prices continue moving up and score outsized gains. 一旦价格向上突破，它将迅速攀升，爬过形态的最高点，通常价格会继续爬升。Identification GuidelinesTable 44.1 shows identification guidelines, of which there are few. As mentioned before, two trendlines outline the price action. Both trendlines slope downward, with the top trendline having a steeper slope than the bottom one. Eventually, the two trendlines intersect at the wedge apex. You can see this in the wedge pictured in Figure 44.2. This wedge forms as part of a consolidation pattern in an uptrend. Prices oscillate from one trendline to the other several times before breaking out of the narrowing price pattern in mid-June. I usually regard five touches as the minimum necessary to safeguard a good formation. The reason for the multiple touches is that the price pattern creates several minor highs and minor lows, each succeeding one narrower than the last. Having a five-touch minimum prevents a price pattern that resembles a rise and gradual decline from being labeled as a wedge. There needs to be several, opposing, touches of the trendline as prices progress through the formation. For example, Figure 44.2 shows six touches of the trendlines, five of which occur on the opposite side of the previous touch.The minor highs and lows are descending even as they narrow. Down-sloping trendlines outlining the minor highs and lows are another key to correct identification of a falling wedge. Avoid a horizontal or near horizontal bottom trendline as the formation is most likely a descending triangle. For a falling wedge, both trendlines must slope downward.Taken together, the wedge should have a minimum duration of 3 weeks and seldom does it last over 4 or 5 months. The formations in this study, for example, have durations from 3 weeks to 4 months. Durations shorter than 3 weeks are probably pennants.The volume trend should be downward. This is not an inviolate rule; it is only a guideline that usually rings true. For this study, 7 out of every 10 formations show a downward volume pattern. Once prices pierce the upper trendline, they continue higher. Figure 44.2 shows prices staging a breakout in mid-June and reaching the ultimate high in early October. The rise, at 17% from the breakout, is well below the average rise of 43%.Why do falling wedges act as they do? About two-thirds of the formations act as consolidations of the prevailing trend. Like the wedge shown in Figure 44.2, prices are heading upward when they run into turbulence. Investors pause from their buying spree and sit on the sidelines. Prices retrace their gains by creating the wedge, oscillating in ever-narrowing patterns, until the buying enthusiasm resumes. Volume supports this lack of enthusiasm as it recedes. When buying momentum resumes, prices and volume shoot upward again after the breakout. Think of a falling wedge not as a pattern of weakness, but one of strength. Think of the formation as a spring winding tighter and tighter. As a spring tightens, it shrinks, and so too do prices and volume in the falling wedge. During a breakout, the pent-up force releases, and prices burst through the formation boundary and zoom upward.Table 44.1Identification Characteristics of Falling WedgesCharacteristicDiscussionTwo down-sloping trendlines两条倾斜趋势线Draw two trendlines, one along the tops and one along the bottoms. The trendlines must both slope downward and eventually intersect. 绘制两条趋势线，分别连接高点与低点。两条趋势线必须向右下倾斜且最终相交。Multiple touches多次触及Most formations have at least five touches, three along one side and two along the other. Be skeptical of formations with fewer than five touches. 多数情况下需要至少5个触点，三点在一端，两点在另一条趋势线上。少于5个触点的形态是可疑的。Three-week minimum三周以上A falling wedge has a minimum duration of 3 weeks. Anything less is probably a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 4 months long. 下降楔形的周期下限最少三周。少于此周期更可能是旗形。该形态很少延续超过四个月。Volume trend交易量趋势Volume usually trends downward until the breakout. 成交量在突破发生之前呈下降趋势。Focus on FailuresIn a perfect world there are no failures, but even with a 10% failure rate, you occasionally come across one. Like many formations, falling wedges have two types of failures. The first I call a 5% failure (see Figure 44.3). The falling wedge acts as a reversal of the upward trend. Although not shown on the chart, prices began rising in early December 1994. During creation of the chart pattern, prices move lower in a narrowing channel. After the breakout, prices climb and reach a high of 453/8, less than 5% above the breakout price of 431/4. From the high, prices head down and reach the ultimate low in late October at a price of 36%. The inability of prices to continue rising more than 5% after a breakout constitutes a 5% failure. In the 125 formations studied, only two suffer 5% failures. The others are failures such as that shown in Figure 44.4.完美世界是不存在失败的，但即便只有10%的失败率，你有时也是会遇到失败的。像很多形态一样，下降楔形有两种失败方式。第一种成为5%失败，下降楔形成为了上升趋势的反转。价格突破后涨到5%后就无力继续上涨，构成了5%失败。其占失败的少数。Of the 12 failures found in this study, 10 are of the variety shown in Figure 44.4. Prices break out downward and continue down. If you could zoom away from the chart, you might recognize a large head-and-shoulders formation with each shoulder and head lasting from 3 to 4 months. The chart shows the rounded-appearing right shoulder. The latter part of the shoulder takes on the appearance of a falling wedge. The top trendline is sloping more steeply than the lower one. Together, they both slope downward and eventually join some distance to the right.绝大部分失败是如图44.4所示的。价格向下突破然后继续下降。There are a number of alternating touches of the two trendlines. The volume trend is irregular but recedes according to the slope of the linear regression line of volume. In short, the formation passes the various identification guidelines discussed earlier (see Table 44.1). Why, then, do prices breakout downward? You might pin the blame on the head-and-shoulders formation that connotes weakness. Of course, if prices moved higher then there would be nothing to say, nothing to blame. I could find no reason to explain this failure and the others like it. Fortunately, they are rare and if you play the percentages, it will happen only once every 10 trades.我无法解释为何出现这种失败。幸运的是，它极少出现，平均十次交易才会出现一次。StatisticsTable 44.2General Statistics for Falling WedgesDescriptionStatisticNumber of formations in 500 stocks from 1991 to 19961991-1996年，500只股票出现次数92Number of formations in 297 stocks from 1996 to 19981996-1998年，297只股票出现次数33Reversal or consolidation反转/调整77 consolidations, 48 reversalsFailure rate失败率12 or 10%Failure rate if waited for upside breakout2 or 2%Average rise of successful formations43%Most likely rise20% to 30%Of those succeeding, number meeting or exceeding price target (measure rule)超越目标价位的次数所占比例101 or 88%Average formation length平均形态周期1.5 months (44 days)Table 44.2 shows general statistics for falling wedges. To find enough falling wedges, I had to search my alternate database too. Together, I only found 125 of these rare chart patterns. Most of them (62%) act as consolidations of the prevailing price trend. This means once the formation completes, prices resume rising just as they were before the formation began. The failure rate at 10% is quite low and is even better if you wait for an upside breakout. Then the failure rate drops to 2%. Only 2 out of 125 formations fail to continue higher by more than 5 % before ultimately turning down. Although falling wedge formations seldom fail, they are not easy to identify and they are rare, so you might factor those variables into your trading plan. I suggest waiting for the breakout before placing a trade.The average rise is a very high 43%. However, the most likely rise is between 20% and 30% as shown in Figure 44.5.1 construct the graph by using a frequency distribution of the percentage gains for successful formations. If you ignore the right column showing gains over 90%, the two highest columns are at 20% and 30%. These two columns have the highest frequency and represent the most likely gain. The chart shows the effect on the average by the outsized gains (those over 90%); they pull the average up to 43%. 平均涨幅是43%，但是收益被90%的柱夸大了，去掉它的影响，最可能的情况是20%-30%的涨幅。I discuss the measure rule at length in the Trading Tactics section of this chapter. Suffice it to say that the measure rule says prices will rise above the top of the wedge, at a minimum. Since meeting this rule does not usually entail a large price move, prices easily reach the target. Almost all the formations (88%) with upside breakouts have prices that meet or exceed the measure rule (prices rise above the top of the formation). The average length of a falling wedge is about 1 /2 months. The duration varies from 20 days to 125 days (about 3 weeks to 4 months). What does a premature breakout look like? Consider Figure 44.6, which has both upside and downside premature breakouts. I define a premature breakout to be when prices close outside the formation trendline then return to the formation. During November, for example, prices rise above the top trendline and stay there for a few weeks. Then prices plunge through the formation and shoot out the other side. The downside premature breakout lasts only 2 days before returning to the formation. Again, prices move above the top trendline then sail back below it. Eventually, prices move up and away from the top trendline without returning to the formation. This is when the genuine breakout occurs. Until that point, the other outliers are premature upside or downside breakouts.Table 44.3 shows statistics for premature breakouts. Thirty-four formations (27%) experience premature breakouts. Most of them (20%) are downside breakouts; the remainders (12%) are upside breakouts. Some formations have both types of premature breakouts (see Figure 44.6). 27%的下降楔形会出现假突破，其中大多数是向下突破；剩余部分是向上突破。某些会同时出来这两种假突破。What is the likelihood that you will buy on an upside premature breakout only to have the formation break out lower? Only three formations (2%) fall into this category. Is there a way to tell a premature breakout from a genuine one? No. Premature upside breakouts occur 61 % of the way to the apex, whereas genuine breakouts happen at the 65% point, on average. 有没有办法区别过早突破和真正的突破？没有。The volume trend also offers no clue. For premature breakouts, 53% experience above average volume (using a 2 5-day moving average of the volume) compared with the same percentage for genuine breakouts. In short, premature upside breakouts look just like the real thing. 成交量趋势也不能提供任何信息。Table 44.4 shows genuine breakout statistics. On average, breakouts occur 65% of die way to the wedge apex. A scatter plot of the breakout-to-apex distance versus the ultimate gain shows the most powerful breakouts occur at 50% to 80% of the apex distance. This range centers on 65% where the average breakout resides.Table 44.4Breakout statistics for Falling WedgesDescriptionStatisticUpside breakout distance to apex65%Upside breakout115 or 92%Downside breakout10 or 8%Upside breakout but failure2 or 2%Throwbacks54 or 47%Average time to throwback completion12 daysFor successful formations, days to ultimate high7 months (206 days)Percentage of breakouts occurring near 12-month price low (L), center (C), or high (H)L44%, C32%, H23%Percentage gain for each 12-month look-back periodL47%, C42%, H36%Upside breakouts occur in 115 formations (92%) and the remainder of the formations (8%) have downside ones. Only two formations have an upside breakout and fail to continue upward by more than 5 %. Throwbacks for upside breakouts occur 47% of the time. This is a bit too low to pin an investment strategy on (such as wait for a throwback before investing). The average time for prices to complete the throwback and return to the breakout price is 12 days.For successful, upside breakouts, prices reach the ultimate high in 206 days, on average. The ultimate high is the highest point reached before an extended (20% or more) downward trend change occurs. Where in the yearly price range do the formations occur? Most (44%) have breakouts in the lower third of the yearly price range. Mapping the percentage gain onto the yearly price range, we find that those formations with upside breakouts occurring in the lower third of their price range do best, with a 47% rise. Those with breakouts in the top third have average gains of only 36% and so perform worse.This is at odds with the results from other bullish chart patterns. Usually, the best performing formations are those that have breakouts near the yearly high. The momentum players grab hold of the stock and bid it up. With falling wedges, that is not the case. Why falling wedges behave this way is a mystery. Perhaps a larger sample size would firm up the results. Only a few statistics (see Table 44.5) relate to the volume of falling wedges. Most (72%) show a downward volume trend. I determine this by viewing the slope of the linear regression line of volume tabulated over the formation. A receding volume trend is apparent in many of the figures that accompany this chapter.Table 44.5Volume Statistics for Falling WedgesDescriptionStatisticNumber showing downward volume trend90 or 72%Volume for breakout day and next 5 days compared with day before breakout138%, 122%, 117%,104%, 106%, 111%Percentage of low volume breakouts versus high volume breakouts subject to throwback 40% versus 42%Table 44.5 shows the breakout volume statistics for the breakout day until a week later. Volume is high on the day of the breakout and trends downward, as you would expect, but it rises the last 2 days. Usually, the volume trend continues moving downward throughout the week after a breakout. This suggests upside buying momentum increases once investors see the turnaround is at hand. Are low volume breakouts more likely to throw back? No. It is more likely that high volume breakouts will throw back and the results follow a pattern we have seen in other formations. For falling wedges, the differences are slight, but 40% of the throwbacks occur after a low volume breakout, whereas 42% happen after a high volume breakout. Incidentally, high and low volume is 150% and 50%, respectively, of the 25-day volume moving average.Trading TacticsTable 44.6 suggests some trading tactics for falling wedges, beginning with the measure rule. The measure rule for falling wedges is simple as there is no computation involved. The minimum predicted price is the highest reached in the formation. Figure 44.7 makes this clear. 下降楔形的交易策略是很简单的，因为不牵涉任何计算。最小目标价位是形态中达到的最高点，如图44.7所示。The highest price is just as the formation starts in early June at 485/8, and it becomes the target price. After the breakout, prices hesitate and attempt a throwback to the formation trendline, but cannot quite reach it. After that, it is straight up. Prices reach the target in early August. The old high is a place of resistance and it takes about 2 weeks before prices are able to push decidedly above that level. Prices move higher until hitting 51 before stumbling and entering an extended downtrend.目标价格正是六月初期形态开始发展时的价格48 5/8。突破之后，价格犹豫并且回测趋势线，但是没能接近。之后，价格扶摇直上，在8月到达了目标价。此时，目标价位表现为阻力位，价格用了2周时间突破阻力达到51美元。Table 44.6Trading Tactics for Falling Wedge