国际先驱论坛报(美国).doc

Inside the China-Philippines Fight in the South China SeaBy DIDI KIRSTEN TATLOWNg Han Guan/Associated PressChinese paramilitary police march outside the Philippines Embassy in Beijing on May 13.Fish, oil and bananas all play a role in the latest round of the high-stakes sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea, a problem that may rival Europes own 19th-century “Schleswig-Holstein Question.” That long-simmering territorial dispute, between Denmark and Germany, led the British politician Lord Palmerston to quip that only three people had ever understood it: a dead prince, a German professor who went mad, “and I, who have forgotten all about it.”Theres less chance of forgetting in the South China Sea, a vast sea territory disputed by half a dozen Asian nations where trillions of dollars in oil and gas deposits are at stake and tempers have flared for weeks, with accusations of bullying between competing nations and even of war preparations by China.The recent bout of trouble began in April, when Philippine Navy personnel boarded Chinese fishing vessels at Scarborough Shoal, an area about 800 kilometers, or 500 miles, south of China and over 160 kilometers west of the Philippines that is claimed by both countries.The Philippines claimed to have found large quantities of illegal coral and fish on the vessels, and said Chinese surveillance ships had intervened to prevent the fishermens arrest, my colleague Jane Perlez reported.Relations between China and the Philippines have deteriorated sharply, with a China Daily article, carried by the Peoples Daily Web site, warning Manila today “not to escalate tension.” That follows weeks of growing calls by nationalist Chinese netizens to “teach the Philippines a lesson” and statements in state-run Chinese media that China would consider all options to resolve the dispute.After weeks of tension in the area, which China calls Huangyan Island and the Philippines calls the Panatag Shoal (internationally, its generally known as the Scarborough Shoal; see this report from the International Crisis Group), China announced this week that it would begin an annual, 10-week fishing ban in waters including the region, but stressed that the ban was not connected to the dispute.Nicholas Kamm/Agence France-Presse Getty ImagesFilipino activists pray during a demonstration in front of the Chinese embassy in Washington,DC on May 11 to protest against an escalating territorial dispute over the Scarborough Shoal, a tiny rocky outcrop in the South China Sea.The ban, which is aimed at replenishing fishing stocks, “has nothing to do with the present Huangyan Island incident,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said, in comments carried widely in state-controlled media.Nationalist Chinese citizens are spoiling for a fight. One, using the name mubaqiuzi, wrote on the popular S opinion site: “I really hope to see a first display of the masters hand, ” meaning Chinese military action.Another commenter, kexinren de jia, wrote: “We should act, we cant be patient any longer, Chinese people cant be bullied!” Many more comments can be found here, in Chinese.Fish, oil and now bananasChina has blocked the import of more than a thousand boxes of bananas from the Philippines, leading President Benigno S. Aquino III on Monday to warn banana exporters that they must diversify their markets, according to this story in The Philippine Daily Inquirer.Banana exports are worth $720 million annually to the Philippines economy and China is a key market, The Inquirer said. The Mindanao Banana Farmers Exporters Association has called on President Aquino “to do everything” in his power to “save the banana industry.”Mr. Aquino said a team of experts from the Department of Agriculture would travel to China this week to witness the opening of roughly 1,500 containers of Cavendish bananas being held in at least three Chinese ports, allegedly due to pest infestation, The Inquirer reported.Both in terms of trade and militarily, China has the upper hand in this dispute, with dozens of warships and other vessels now at the shoal, said Scott W. Harold, an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation.A lone Philippine Navy ship that had been at the shoal has returned to base for needed repairs, said Mr. Harold. “I dont think this is going much further for now,” he said by telephone.“Beijing has an undeniably superior power position and physical control of Scarborough Shoal at present, so they have nothing to gain from using force, and the Philippines is so weak militarily that I think they will be very cautious,” he said.If a military conflict between the two nations would be highly unequal, Chinas aggressive stance, as shown in hints in state media that the country would consider military action to back its claims, has hurt Chinas reputation, said Mr. Harold.“Theyve already done a lot of damage to their regional image through their handling of this standoff,” said Mr. Harold.On Tuesday, speaking in the southern province of Guangdong, Huang Shanchun, political commissar of the Guangdong Military Region, appeared to try to placate Chinas hawkish citizens.Recent online discussion of how China would fight the Philippines “shows that our online friends and the masses care very much about and pay attention to our nations benefit and safety,” he said in comments carried by The Beijing News.“Firstly, Huangyan Island is Chinese territory since ancient times,” and nothing the Philippines can do will change that, said Mr. Huang.“Secondly, our masses, our online netizens, should please be confident that our central government and military