土库曼斯坦经济概况(英文).docx

Economy of TurkmenistanTurkmenistanis one of the worldsfastest-growing economies. It is largely adesertcountry with intensiveagriculturein irrigated areas, and hugegasandoilresources. In terms of natural gas reserves, it isranked 4th in the world. Regarding agriculture, the two largest crops are cotton, most of which is produced for export, and wheat, which is domestically consumed.4Turkmenistan is amongthe top ten producers of cotton in the world. From 1998-2005,Turkmenistansuffered from the continued lack of adequate export routes for natural gas and from obligations on extensive short-term external debt. At the same time, however, total exports rose by an average of roughly 15% per year from 200308, largely because of higher international oil and gas prices. As in the Soviet era, central planning and state control pervade the system, and the Niyazov government (in power 19912006) consistently rejected market reform programs. The state subsidizes a wide variety of commodities and services. Since his election in 2007, PresidentGurbanguly Berdimuhamedowunified the countrys dual currencyexchange rate, ordered the redenomination of the manat, reduced state subsidies for gasoline, and initiated development of a special tourism zone (Avaza) on the Caspian Sea. Since 2009, Turkmenistan maintans the fixed exchange rate of 1United States Dollarto 2.85Turkmenistan manat.4Fiscal PolicyThe budget making process and its implementation goes according to the Law “On Budget System”. The law fixes legal foundations of organizing management and operating budget system, regulates interrelations between budgets of all levels. The Government ofTurkmenistandiscusses the State budget draft and submits it to thePresident of Turkmenistan. Prior to one month of the beginning of the financial year thePresident of Turkmenistansubmits to theAssembly of Turkmenistan(Mejlis) the State budget draft for consideration and adoption. Budget statistics are unreliable because the government spends large amounts of extra-budgetary funds. In 2012, it is estimated that the budget expenditures are US$26.9 billion, and revenues are US$26.4 billion, creating a slight deficit.Monetary policyInflationSince 1991 the last year of existence of the USSR up to 1993 the last year of rouble zone existence the rate of inflation was measured in tens, hundreds and even thousands per cent per year. However the price growth continued and by November 1996 the total price level in Turkmenistan had increased tens of thousands times in comparison with December 1991. Simultaneously with the price growth the currency (dollar) exchange rates dropped. First it was rouble rate (1991)and later on, with the launching of the national currency. The Turkmen national currency manat was launched on November 1, 1993. The official exchange rate was established as $1equal to 2 manats.In 19931995 Turkmenistan increased monetary base by 20 - 28% monthly; thus prices reacted by a monthly growth of 25 43%.The cash growth in circulation in 19931995 constituted 47.8%. The issue of cash increased 3 times and made up 7 billion manats. For the recent years the process of involving internal sources of investment into the sphere of currency turnover and currency accrual has become unprecedented in its scale. The tendency of the growth of this process and its significance require special study. It is worth noting that the major factors accounting for the quality of monetary policy are: rate of monetary base growth, rates of changes of velocity of money and rates of real GDP growth. Transition from a soft to a tougher monetary policy in the middle of 1996 immediately affected the dynamics of prices. In the world economy one of the most important sources of maintaining high rates of monetary base increase (though not the only one) is monetization of a budget deficit its financing at the cost of issuing money instruments.IndustryHQ of the Ministry of Oil and Gas of Turkmensistan, AshgabatIn the post-Soviet era, Turkmenistans industrial sector has been dominated increasingly by the fuel and cotton processing industries to the detriment of light industry. Between 1991 and 2004, some 14 new cotton-processing plants were opened, sharply increasing the capability of processing domestically produced cotton. The construction industry depends mainly on government building projects because construction of private housing is a low priority.GasTurkmenistans major gas deposits were discovered in its central and eastern areas in the 1940s and 50s, and in the 1980s the republic became the second largest producer of gas in the Soviet Union, behind theRussian SFSR. During the Soviet era gas was exported mainly to other Soviet republics, as Turkmenistan steadily increased delivery from about 9.2 million m in 1940 to about 234 million m in 1960 and about 51 billion m in 1975. This export was under centralised control, and most of the export revenue was absorbed into the Soviet central budget. This changed in 1991, when Turkmenistan gained independence and established full control over gas export and export revenues. However, Soviet-era pipelines dictate that much of the gas goes to the Caucasus, Russia and Ukraine. In the 1990s many of Turkmenistans gas customers in theCISfailed to pay on time or negotiated barter deals. In the mid-1990s Turkmenistan stopped delivering gas to some CIS members, citing failure to pay and unprofitable barter deals. At the same time, the government tried to attract investments in building gas pipelines via Iran to Turkey and Western Europe via Afghanistan to Pakistan. Neither deal went through due to an unfavourable regional security environment and high costs; inflation and the budget deficit rose but privatisation was resisted. In the late 1990s the government renegotiated its export and price arrangements withGazpromand renewed deliveries toGeorgia,Ukraine, and some other countries.It also opened its first pipeline not to pass through Russia, theKorpezhe-Kurt Kui Pipeline.The figures in the table below are taken from BP Statistical Review. The unit is billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. It lists gas production, consumption, exports as total and also divided into countries. One observes that the production and exports peaked in 2008 and dramatically decreaded in 2009. This is due an explosion that occurred in theCentral AsiaCenter gas pipeline systemin April 2009 for which Turkmenistan blamed theGazpromcompany.7Since then Russia restricted its imports to only around 10 bcm. The production and exports started increasing again from 2010 owing to an opening of theCentral AsiaChina gas pipeline.YearProductionConsumptionExportsExports to RussiaExports to ChinaExports to Iran20055716.140.935.105.8200866.120.545.639.106.5200936.419.916.710.705.8201042.422.619.79.73.56.5201159.525.034.510.114.310.2201264.423.341.19.921.39.0OilAs of 2010, Turkmenistan had 202,000 barrels per day oil production. Dragon Oil produced around 50,000 barrels per day. Domestic consumption was about 100,000 barrels per day.The oil production data in the table below are taken from BP Statistical Review.YearProduction (thsd. bar/d)Production (mil. tonnes/y)Consumption (mil. tonnes/y)200218393.920051939.54.3200820810.35.1200921110.44.6201021710.74.5201121710.74.7201222211.04.8Construction MaterialsThree cement plants operate in Turkmenistan. These are located near Ashgabat, Balkan and Lebap provinces. Total production in 2013 is estimated to exceed 2 million tonnes. Chemical IndustryTurkmenistan is construction potash plant with annual capacity of 2.8 million tonnes of potash fertilizers. The bulk of them will be exported since the domestic demand in the country does not exceed 10,000 tonnes.The construction of the plant that would produce 640,000 tonnes/year of urea (carbamide) and 400,000 tonnes/year of ammonia is due to be completed by June 2014.By 2016, the country is expected to produce 1m tonnes of urea (carbamide) annually. ServicesBankingThe financial system is under full state control. The banking system, which was reduced substantially after the 1998 financial crisis, includes 12 national banks. These institutions have the same basic division of responsibility as in the Soviet era, overseen by theCentral Bank of Turkmenistan. Lending operations and household savings have not been important functions of this system. In 2005 an estimated 95 percent of loans went to state enterprises. Turkmengosstrakh, the state insurance firm, has a complete monopoly of the very small insurance industry.AgricultureIn the early 2000s, the contribution of Turkmenistans state-run agriculture sector to gross domestic product increased under close state supervision. As during the Soviet era, cotton is the dominant agricultural commodity because it is an export staple. However, in recent years state policy makers have increased the range of crops with the aim of making Turkmenistan self-sufficient in food. In the post-Soviet era, the area planted to grains (mainly wheat) has nearly tripled. However, most agricultural land is of poor quality and requires irrigation. Turkmenistans irrigation infrastructure and water-use policies have not responded efficiently to this need. Irrigation now depends mainly on the decrepit Garagum Canal, which carries water across Turkmenistan from the Amu Darya. The Dostluk dam, opened at Serakhs on the Iranian border in 2005, has increased available irrigation water and improved efficiency. Plans call for a similar dam on theAtrek Riverwest of Ashgabat. Private farmers grow most of Turkmenistans fruits and vegetables (chiefly tomatoes, watermelons, grapes, and onions), but all production phases of the main cash cropsgrain and cottonremain under state control. In 2006 grain crop failures led to steadily increasing bread lines and reinstatement of a ration system in most regions. At the root of those failures was a culture of falsifying output figures together with poor administration of the sectorExternal tradeThe Turkmen Government claims to have placed great emphasis on foreign economic relations and foreign trade and an open door trade policy, as declared by the President.At present 73 countries are partners of Turkmenistan, including the republics of the NIS. The most prominent trade partners of Turkmenistan are theUnited States,Turkey,Switzerland,Hong Kong,Germany, theUnited Kingdom,Cyprus,Iran, and theUnited Arab Emirates. Turkmenistan is a member of theEconomic Cooperation Organization(ECO).Export of industrial and agricultural raw materials remain the most important goals of the Turkmen Government. Price controls on most goods, the stabilization of reproduction processes, the creation of stable economic growth, and flexibility to innovations and a socially oriented economy also are very important. The government is attempting to strengthen state regulation of foreign trade and create a state system of insurance to expand and consolidate foreign economic relations. Because of considerable growth of foreign investments, improvements are taking place in the economy. Privatization of medium and large enterprises are proceeding slowly.In January 2006,Saparmurat Niyazovordered to stop paying pensions to (more than 100,000) of elderly people, cutting pensions to another 200,000, and ordering to pay the pensions received in the past two years back to the State. This has resulted in a huge number of deaths of old people, who may have had their pension (ranging from $10 to $90) as the only source of money. LaborRecent statistics are not available on Turkmenistans labor force. In 2003 the labor force was estimated to include more than 2.3 million workers, 48 percent of whom worked in agriculture, 38 percent in services, and 14 percent in industry and construction. Because the state dominates the economy, an estimated 90 percent of workers are in effect state employees. Unemployment statistics are not available because unemployment does not exist officially. It is believed that downsizing the government workforce, which began in 2003, increased unemployment in subsequent years.The average monthly salary in Turkmenistan in 2007 was 507 TMT (178 USD) and the same indicator in 2012 was 943 TMT (331 USD). This is equivalent to 86% increase. This dramatic increase is mainly due to the yearly increase of 10% of the state employer salaries by the Government of Turkmenistan.PrivatizationBy 1999, privatization in trade, catering, consumer services was fully completed. Availability of adequate legal base, opening of credit lines, including the foreign ones, simplified the procedure of private enterprises opening and licensing, led to enlarge-ment of the sphere of entrepreneurship. The private sector dominates in agriculture (60%), trade (70%) and transport (56%). Turkmenistan plans to privatize several state companies during 2013-2016. Other statisticsHousehold income or consumption by percentage share: lowest 10%:2.6% highest 10%:31.7% (1998)Industrial production growth rate:official government estimate: 22% (2003 est.)Electricity: production:15.02TWh(2009) consumption:11.22 TWh (2009) exports:1.56 TWh (2009) imports:0 kWh (2002)Electricity - production by source: fossil fuel:99.9% hydro:0.1% nuclear:0% other:0% (2001)Exchange rates:Turkmen manats per US$1 5,200 (January 2000), 5,350 (January 1999), 4,070 (January 1997), 2,400 (January 1996)in recent years the unofficial rate has hovered around 24,000 to