经济学人深刻解读中国二孩政策.docx

经济学人深刻解读中国二孩政策WHEN Chinas government scrapped its one-child policy in 2015, allowing all couples to have a second child, officials pooh-poohed Western demographers fears that the relaxation was too little, too late. Rather, the government claimed, the new approach would start to reverse the countrys dramatic ageing.中国政府在2015年放弃了一孩政策，允许所有的夫妻可以生第二个孩子。西方人口统计学家称这次放开的幅度太小，时间太晚，中国官员则对此嗤之以鼻。相反，政府声称，新的政策将使得国家人口的剧烈老龄化态势得以反转。On January 22nd the National Health and Family Planning Commission revealed data that seemed to justify optimism: it said 18.5m babies had been born in Chinese hospitals in 2016. This was the highest number since 2000an 11.5% increase over 2015. Of the new babies, 45% were second children, up from around 30% before 2013, suggesting the policy change had made a difference.1月22日国家卫生和计划生育委员会公布出的数据似乎证明了情况的确乐观：数据显示2016年全年有1850万婴儿在中国的医院出生。这是自2000年以来的最高数字-相比2015年增长了11.5%，其中45%是二孩，相比2013年以前提高了约30%，这显示出政策的变化已有成效。Confusingly, the National Bureau of Statistics announced its own figures at the same time: it said the number of births had risen by 8% to 17.9m. These numbers were based on a sample survey of the population, not hospital records, hence the difference. But both sets of figures used valid methods of calculating a birth rate and both showed a significant rise. Yang Wenzhuang of the health and family-planning agency said the increase showed the introduction of a two-child policy had come “in time and worked effectively”.令人费解的是，国家统计局同时也公布了其数据：数据显示新生婴儿的数量增长了8%，增长至1790万。这些数字是对于人口的一个样本调查所计算出的，并不是医院的数据，因此有所不同。但是两组数字都采取了有效的方法来计算出生率，且都显示出人口出生率有显著的增长。健康和家庭规划机构的杨文庄称此增长显示出二孩政策的出台是“及时且有效的”。It is far too early to claim victory. There are several reasons for thinking the rise in births is a spike, and very few causes to believe the underlying fertility rate (the number of children a Chinese woman can expect to have during her lifetime) has risen much, if at all.然而，言之胜利又犹为过早。有一些迹象可以表明出生率正在上升，但是要相信潜在的人口出生率（每个中国女性在一生中想要生的孩子数量）已经上升还缺少依据，就算真的有的话。It always seemed likely that the one-child policy was a little like a dam, with couples wanting a second child banked up behind it. As soon as the flow of the dam was changed, they would have their desired babies quickly. That seems to have happened. It might also have made a difference that 2016 was the year of the monkey in the Chinese zodiacal calendar. This is considered a propitious year.一孩政策似乎总是像一座水坝，把想要生二孩的夫妻挡在了后面。当水坝的流量改变的时候，很快他们就会重新燃起生孩子的欲望。这似乎已成事实。其实还有可能起作用的是2016年是中国十二生肖年历中的猴年，猴年往往被认为是吉利的一年。Chinese couples have sometimes chosen to have a child under such a sign, rather than (say) in the less lucky year of the chicken, which begins on January 28th. So there were one-off reasons for the number of births to rise.中国的夫妻有时会选择让孩子诞生在这样的寓意下，而不是1月28日开始的鸡年，鸡年相比猴年则没有那么的吉利。所以出生数量的上升还存在这么一个独立的因素。Even so, the increase was smaller than expected. When they introduced the two-child policy, family-planning officials forecast that between 17m and 20m babies would be born every year between 2015 and 2020an increase of about 3m a year. In the event the increase in 2016 was only 1.3m. Moreover, if pent-up demand explains much of the increase, that influence will fade.尽管如此，出生率的增长还是比预期要低。当二孩政策出台之时，家庭规划的官员预测在2015至2020年每年会有1700万至2000万的婴儿出生-每年增长约300万。在2016年增长的数量仅为130万。此外，如果说此前被抑制的需求是数量增长的主要原因的话，那么这个因素所产生的影响将逐渐减弱。After a brief spate, the flow of water through the dam will go back to what it was beforeunless there is a change in Chinas underlying fertility rate, meaning unless the average woman of child-bearing age decides she wants more children.在一个适量的泄洪之后，通过水坝的水流量将会恢复到从前-除非中国的潜在人口出生率发生变化，意思是适龄产妇改变想法，想要更多的孩子。So far, that does not seem to be happening. It is true that the short-term rise in births may be hiding long-term changes but, anecdotally, there is little sign yet of a shift towards wanting larger families. More than 30 years of relentless propaganda have persuaded most Chinese that “one is enough”.目前，这种变化应该不太可能发生。确实短期出生率的提升背后也许隐藏着长期的变化，但是，据我们所知，目前还没有迹象表明他们想要更大的家庭。三十余年不懈地宣传已经让大多数中国人觉得“一个孩子就已足够”。In a government survey in 2015 three-quarters of couples said they did not want a second child, citing the cost of child care and education. Peoples Daily, the Communist Partys main mouthpiece, recently lamented that Chinas fertility rate, at 1.05, was the lowest in the world. It has fallen consistently since 1950.在政府2015年的一个调查中，四分之三的夫妻称他们不想要二孩，这是因为孩子医疗和教育高昂的花费。中国共产党的主要喉舌人民日报近期哀叹道，中国的人口出生率为1.05%，这是世界上最低的。出生率自1950年起就一直在下降。Even if the fertility rate were to rise, it might not be enough to offset the continuing influences of the one-child policy and the destruction of female fetuses that accompanied it. Because of these, the number of women of child-bearing age (15-49 years) is due to fall by about 5m each year in the next four years. So if the fertility rate stays the same, the number of births will start falling, because there will be fewer mothers to bear children.即使出生率将要提升，但是这也不足以抵销一孩政策所产生的影响，以及其所伴随的抛弃女婴的现象。由于这些原因，适龄产妇（15至49岁）的数量在未来四年里将每年减少500万。所以如果出生率保持一样，那么出生的数量将开始减少，因为适龄产妇将越来越少。And that in turn would mean the remorseless greying of China would continue. At the moment, one in seven of the populati