INBEV啤酒中国市场拓展 哈佛MBA毕业论文.pdf

The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 1 0 000 000 REV MAY 3 2007 GONCALO NEVES CORREIA RODOLFO CHUNG The Largest Brewer in the Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China In 2005 China surpassed the US to become the largest beer market in the world in volume terms accounting for 19 of world consumption This combined with its high growth rate value 01 06 CAGR of 7 2 1 makes China a potentially very interesting market to be present in for the world beer majors However as discussed in RC Strategy and AGS a large market size and high growth are on their own not enough to justify diversification into this market This paper focuses on InBev the world s largest brewer and its expansion into China We specifically try to analyze whether it makes strategic sense for the company to be present in China and if so how they should develop their expansion strategy in the country We first provide a general overview of the global and Chinese beer markets profiling the main characteristics and competitors before analyzing in detail the specific case for InBev in China Part 1 General Industry Profiling and Discussion World Beer Market Overview In 2005 the world beer market stood at ca 155bn litres and ca US 440bn exhibiting growth rates of 2 7 and 5 0 in volume and value terms respectively 2 Within these numbers however there are strong regional differences in market sizes and growth rates as we will see It can be argued that one important trend the global beer market has seen over the past 5 years is that of consolidation not only at a regional level but also on a global scale Over the 2001 2004 period the global market share of the top 5 players in the industry has increased from 27 to 36 Exhibit 1 Over this time among other important M their spending power and influence on consumption will only increase from here 91 Aggregation in Theory What is being described above is an example of intra China aggregation By increasing the geographic scope of one particular brand InBev will be able to create economies of scale by having centralized functions like marketing sourcing and R 2 development of non state business in terms of the ratio of industrial output by private sector to total industrial output 3 development of product markets in terms of the degree of regional trade barriers 4 development of factor markets captured by foreign direct investment and labor mobility 5 development Marketization 1 Legal EnvironmentProperty RightsDeregulation ARP 2 ValueVolumeVol ShareVol Growth 00 06 ValPCVolPC BrewersRevenuesProfitsProfit MarginARPB Anhui6 4 5 3 6 6 0 6 3 5 3 126 6 895 9 2 9 30 5 47 4 13 6 21 0 1 462 8 49 8 3 4 69 7 Beijing5 6 7 8 7 4 0 7 9 7 5 318 3 550 3 1 8 24 5 351 8 36 4 10 0 4 336 5 26 8 0 6 433 7 Chongqing6 3 3 7 4 1 4 1 2 909 6 705 6 2 3 29 5 88 3 21 4 7 0 988 3 117 5 11 9 141 2 Fuijian8 0 6 2 6 8 2 7 5 5 5 297 5 968 6 3 2 30 3 147 7 27 0 21 0 3 404 6 505 2 14 8 162 1 Gansu4 9 3 9 5 3 0 3 4 1 1 801 2 440 5 1 4 35 6 64 7 15 8 23 0 1 398 5 22 4 1 6 60 8 Guangdong8 3 7 1 7 8 2 9 7 0 16 080 9 2 312 3 7 6 33 8 196 1 28 2 24 0 8 233 2 660 3 8 0 343 1 Guangxi6 0 4 9 6 3 1 2 3 5 3 875 9 1 093 4 3 6 40 1 77 6 21 9 2 0 1 369 2 156 2 11 4 684 6 Guizhou4 5 4 2 4 8 0 3 3 6 1 500 5 415 1 1 4 33 7 37 6 10 4 7 0 293 1 47 3 16 1 41 9 Hainan6 4 6 3 8 7 1 6 3 5 844 1 244 7 0 8 44 3 101 1 29 3 1 0 426 9 21 6 5 1 426 9 Hebei6 4 5 0 5 7 1 2 3 9 7 784 1 2 020 7 6 6 35 3 110 7 28 7 23 0 2 283 0 123 9 5 4 99 3 Heilongjiang5 0 5 3 6 3 0 7 4 1 3 702 4 901 9 3 0 29 3 96 0 23 4 49 0 2 960 1 121 5 4 1 60 4 Henan5 6 4 8 4 2 0 3 3 6 7 266 8 2 029 3 6 7 33 5 72 3 20 2 33 0 3 279 7 190 1 5 8 99 4 Hubei5 5 4 9 6 3 0 6 3 9 8 261 5 2 116 9 6 9 36 0 131 9 33 8 17 0 4 731 0 489 8 10 4 278 3 Hunan5 5 2 4 2 5 0 3 4 2 6 004 3 1 435 4 4 7 35 0 87 9 21 0 16 0 1 077 7 17 7 1 6 67 4 Inner Mongolia4 7 4 9 4 7 0 7 3 7 1 855 1 502 1 1 6 28 0 74 4 20 1 20 0 1 057 7 80 9 7 6 52 9 Jiangsu7 9 6 2 7 7 1 4 5 3 6 446 8 1 223 0 4 0 25 0 85 0 16 1 57 0 4 972 4 44 3 0 9 87 2 Jiangxi5 4 4 7 6 3 0 3 3 7 3 309 7 892 9 2 9 31 7 75 6 20 4 21 0 917 8 60 5 6 6 43 7 Jilin5 5 5 7 7 3 0 7 4 4 3 465 6 796 1 2 6 27 0 124 2 28 5 8 0 1 295 2 40 9 3 2 161 9 Liaoning6 2 5 4 7 0 1 2 4 6 8 452 4 1 855 4 6 1 34 3 196 3 43 1 34 0 3 865 5 167 8 4 3 113 7 Ningxia4 0 5 0 8 7 0 3 4 6 343 6 74 6 0 2 30 3 57 9 12 6 3 0 170 7 6 7 3 9 56 9 Qunghai3 2 4 6 5 4 0 3 5 7 304 3 53 9 0 2 19 0 55 0 9 7 NANA Shaanxi4 1 3 0 5 5 0 3 3 9 2 632 9 668 6 2 2 32 7 69 7 17 7 7 0 1 475 0 201 2 13 6 210 7 Shandong7 1 5 4 5 3 1 4 4 3 10 204 8 2 355 6 7 7 62 4 109 1 25 2 62 0 11 586 9 778 5 6 7 186 9 Shanghai6 7 6 8 8 9 1 8 10 4 4 283 0 413 4 1 4 14 7 301 2 29 1 7 0 1 475 6 140 8 9 5 210 8 Shanxi4 5 5 5 6 7 0 3 3 3 2 332 4 709 4 2 3 37 4 67 8 20 6 8 0 435 5 6 8 1 6 54 4 Sichuan5 6 4 6 5 3 0 6 4 1 7 454 6 1 807 2 5 9 32 2 78 7 19 1 21 0 3 265 7 486 2 14 9 155 5 Tianjin6 7 6 9 7 9 1 4 7 8 2 755 2 353 9 1 2 17 5 261 2 33 5 2 0 302 1 36 1 11 9 151 0 TibetNANANANA8 5 151 8 17 8 0 1 14 2 56 0 6 6 1 0 176 2 58 7 33 3 176 2 Xianjiang2 8 3 9 4 8 0 7 4 4 1 496 4 340 3 1 1 30 7 75 7 17 2 10 0 667 1 63 3 9 5 66 7 Yunnan4 8 3 8 6 0 0 7 4 8 2 534 9 524 2 1 7 28 2 56 2 11 6 10 0 835 3 23 8 2 8 83 5 Zheijiang8 2 5 7 6 3 1 4 7 0 12 324 6 1 749 9 5 7 24 3 247 7 35 2 54 0 4 753 5 188 2 4 0 88 0 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 29 of market intermediaries and legal environment We use the average of the 1999 and 2000 indexes in our analyses Source Fan G Wang X L 2003 NERI Index of Marketization of China s Provinces Economics Science Press In Chinese Legal Environment This index measures the development of market intermediaries protection of property rights protection of copyrights and consumers We use the average of the 1999 and 2000 indexes in our analyses Source Fan G Wang X L 2003 NERI Index of Marketization of China s Provinces Economics Science Press In Chinese Property Rights This index measures 1 market order calculated based on the total economic value of legal cases settled standardized by GDP of the region and 2 court efficiency a ratio of the solved legal cases to total cases received We use the average of the 1999 and 2000 indexes in our analyses Source Fan G Wang X L 2003 NERI Index of Marketization of China s Provinces Economics Science Press In Chinese Deregulation The amount of preferential treatments granted to a region by the central government to set up special economic zones during 1978 to 1998 Source Demruger S Sachs J D Woo W T Bao S Chang G Mellinger A 2002 Geography Economic Policy and Regional Development In China Asian Economics Papers 1 146 197 ARP Average Retail Price RMB Litre ValPC Value per Capita in RMB VolPC Volume per Capita in Litres ARPB Average Revenue per Brewer Source 1 The individual sources for the numbers are given in the definition of each category However this data was all obtained in the following secondary source Fan Joseph P H Wong T J Zhang Tianyu February 2007 Organizational Structure as a Decentralization Device Evidence from Corporate Pyramids Source 2 Source Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 30 Exhibit 9 2004 Company Shares of Beer in China by Global Brand Owner Company Shares of Beer by National Brand Owner 2000 2004 total volume 200020012002 20032004 Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd 8 610 812 1 12 313 1 China Resources Enterprise Co Ltd 4 97 49 6 9 811 2 Beijing Yanjing Beer Group Corp 6 67 48 5 8 59 5 Harbin Brewery Group Ltd 1 93 13 7 4 44 5 Henan Jinxing Brewery Group 2 12 62 9 34 3 InBev 3 8 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Group Co Ltd 3 43 33 3 3 43 7 Fujian Sedrin Brewery Co Ltd 0 91 31 8 22 6 Chongqing Brewery Co 2 92 33 1 3 52 3 Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery Co Ltd 1 4 Shenzhen Kingway Brewery Co 0 50 70 8 11 4 Suntory Brewery Shanghai Co Ltd 110 9 11 3 KK Group 0 90 90 9 0 91 1 Hangzhou Xihu Beer Asahi Co Ltd 0 40 7 0 81 Budweiser Wuhan International Brewing Co Ltd 0 50 80 9 0 91 Hubei Jinlongquan Brewery Co Ltd 1 51 41 4 1 20 8 CBR Brewing Co Ltd 0 90 70 7 0 70 7 Lanzhou Huanghe Beer Co Ltd 0 40 40 3 0 40 7 Yantai Beer Asahi Co Ltd 0 90 90 8 0 60 6 Wusu Brewery Co Ltd 0 40 40 4 0 40 5 Shanghai Asia Pacific 0 30 30 4 0 40 5 Yunnan Carlsberg Dali Beer Group Co Ltd 0 30 3 Guangzhou San Miguel Brewery Co Ltd 0 30 30 3 0 30 3 Beijing Beer Asahi Co Ltd 00 2 Zhuhai Kirin President Brewery Co 0 10 10 1 0 10 2 Hainan Asia Pacific Brewery Ltd 0 10 10 1 0 10 2 Tibet Lhasa Brewery Company Limited 0 10 10 1 0 10 1 Guangdong Carlsberg Co Ltd 0 20 10 1 0 10 1 Heineken NV 0 10 10 1 0 10 1 Interbrew NV SA 00 20 2 3 7 Fujian Huiquan Brewery Group 1 51 71 7 1 6 Lion Nathan Suzhou Brewery Co 0 50 40 4 0 6 Lion Breweries Ltd 2 52 62 6 Dali Beer Group Co Ltd 0 30 30 3 Hubei Wuhan Ouliandong Xihui Brewery Group 11 4 Guilin Liquan Brewery Co Ltd 11 Hangzhou Beer Factory 0 60 6 Others 53 144 940 7 37 732 7 Total 100100100 100100 These breweries were consolidated under InBev China umbrela by 2007 Together they totaled 12 of the market in 2004 Source Euromonitor Beer China Euromonitor International June 2006 p5 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 31 Exhibit 10 Competitive Landscape Map of Beer Market in China Source Denise Chai Intensifying Competition from Global Majors Merril Lynch December 8 2006 p 12 via Multex accessed April 2007 XinjiangXinjiang CR Snow SAB Miller InBev Carlsberg Tsingtao Anheuser Busch Henan Jinxing Harbin Anheuser Busch Yanjing Suntory Competition between S N Carlsberg and CR Snow Competition between Tsingtao Inbev Zhujiang Carlsberg Heineken Kingway Competition between Yanjing and InBev Competition between Tsingtao CR Snow and InBev Competition between A B Harbin and CR Snow Competition between CR Snow Yanjing and InBev Competition between Carlsberg and CR Snow Competition between Tsingtao and Carlsberg NOTE Color denotes dominant player The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 32 Exhibit 11 Consumer Considerations when purchasing Beer in 6 Largest Cities China 2002 Ranking in order of importanceBeijing Shanghai G zhou Chengdu Wuhan Xi an Shenyang Pleasant taste 1111111 Reasonable price 2322222 Famous brand 3233333 Easy to buy 4544544 Date of manufacture 6778665 Out of habit 5655456 Place of production 7897777 Word of mouth 91089998 Gift 812121112149 Influence of advertising 104668810 Offered by work unit 11121312141011 Appealing packaging 1191010101012 Introduced by shop staff 14101314131213 Special offer 13141113101313 Source Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 p65 Exhibit 12 Merger Interbrew and Ambev Source Authors diagram based on InBev s corporate website 2006 data The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 33 Exhibit 13 Global EBITDA Margins of Beer Majors 31 9 21 9 29 7 32 6 21 9 0 0 5 0 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 InBevSABMiller Anheuser Busch Grupo Modelo Heineken 2006 Global Beer Industry EBITDA Margins Source 2006 company Annual Reports The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 34 Exhibit 14 InBev Brand Portfolio per Province in China Source Authors diagramation based on InBev s corporate website data and Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 p224 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 35 Exhibit 15 Major Foreign Acquisitions in the China Beer Industry Price Historic Price Price Price Price EBIT EBITDA Date Buyer Seller Euro mn Stake Vols mhl HL Sales EBIT EBITDA Margin Margin 11 Jan 02 InBev Zhujiang 1924 00 7 0110 678 62 1 7 1 4 Mar 03 Anheuser Busch Tsingtao 16522 50 28 82612 66 88 4 14 4 18 Apr 03 InBev KK Brewery 3270 00 2 518111 77 26 1 9 9 29 Jun 03 SABMiller Harbin 7629 60 10 425215 28 713 4 23 4 9 May 03 InBev Lion Breweries 12250 00 11 022 28 Jan 04 Heineken APB Kingway Brewery 5721 00 4 068 11 Feb 04 S N Chongqing 5219 50 9 827 3 Jun 04 Anheuser Busch Harbin 50970 90 12 060531 222 716 1 22 1 21 Jun 04 InBev Zhejiang 4370 00 2 12911 65 00 15 Jul 04 Carlsberg Lanzou 1550 00 1 619 25 0 20 Sep 04 InBev Lion Breweries 113250 00 13 020 15 Sep 04 SABMiller Lion Nathan China 154100 00 2 270 15 20 8 Nov 04 InBev Hunan Debier Brewery 1845 00 0 629 7 7 31 Mar 05 Heineken APB Jiangsu DaFuHao 2240 00 1 4392 5 23 Jan 06 InBev Fujian Sedrin 614100 00 8 4733 918 11321 5 30 0 24 Jul 06 SABMiller CRE Zhejiang Yinyan 38100 00 1 038 24 Jul 06 SABMiller CRE Anhui Huaibei Xiangwang 8100 00 0 712 Note InBev has management control over Lion Breweries Source Denise Chai Intensifying Competition from Global Majors Merril Lynch December 8 2006 p 12 via Multex accessed April 2007 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 36 Exhibit 16 InBev s International Brand Portfolio Posters Source Authors diagramation based on information from InBev s corporate website South Korea Brazil Belgium Belgium Russia Germany Canada Brazil Canada Germany The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 37 The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 38 Exhibit 18 Breweries distribution of InBev Heineken A B Tsingtao and SABMiller The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 39 End Notes 1 Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 p13 2 Euromonitor Global Sector Briefing Beer World Euromonitor International December 2006 p4 3 Euromonitor Global Sector Briefing Beer World p2 4 Zhigang Tao Chinese Beer Industry 2004 HKU372 Hong Kong The University of Hong Kong 2005 p1 5 Ibid p2 6 This paragraph is adapted from Stage 1 section of Zhigang Tao Chinese Beer Industry 2004 p2 7 This paragraph is adapted from Stage 2 section of Zhigang Tao Chinese Beer Industry 2004 p2 8 This paragraph is adapted from Stage 3 section of Zhigang Tao Chinese Beer Industry 2004 p2 9 John W Slocum Jr et al Fermentation in the China Beer Industry Organizational Dynamics Vol 35 No 1 pp 32 48 2006 p33 10Ibid p33 11 Ibid p33 12 Zhigang Tao Anheuser Busch versus SABMiller Bidding War in China s Beer Industry HKU411 Hong Kong The University of Hong Kong 2004 p4 13 Ally Zhang InBev China Director of External Growth interview by authors Boston MA April 10 2007 14 Bruce M Owen et al Antitrust in China The Problem of Incentive Compatibility Journal of Competition Law and Economics 1 1 pp123 148 p131 15 Gustavo Pimenta InBev China Commercial Vice President interview by authors Boston MA April 2007 16 Ibid 17 Newton Abe InBev National Sales Process Manager interview by author Brazil November 2006 18 Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis p70 19 Ally Zhang interview 20 Gustavo Pimenta interview 21 Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 table 2 6 22 Gustavo Pimenta interview 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 This section is adapted from Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 Section 2 p58 69 26 Ally Zhang interview 27 Ally Zhang interview 28 Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 p67 29 Access Asia Beer in China A Market Analysis Access Asia Limited 2006 p66 30 The data from this paragraph was researched from InBev Web site accessed April 2007 31 Labatt Our Company Labatt Web site accessed April 2007 32 InBev History InBev Web site accessed April 2007 33 InBev Web site accessed April 2007 34 Gustavo Pimenta interview 35 This paragraph was based in the previous knowledge of one of the authors Rodolfo Chung a former employee of AmBev from 2000 to 2005 36 Ibid 37 InBev AmBev Interbrew Merger Presentation InBev Website accessed April 2007 38 Ibid The World s Largest Brewer in The World s Largest Market A Strategic Analysis of InBev s Expansion to China 40 39 InBev Web site accessed April 2007 40 Ibid 41 InBev InBev Investor Relations InBev website accessed April 2007 42 Anheuser Busch Web site accessed April 2007 43 SABMiller Investor Relations SABMiller website accessed in April 2007 44 InBev 2006 Annual Report p05 45 Ibid 46 InBev 2004 Annual Report p02 47 Euromonitor Global Sector Briefing Beer World p22 48 InBev 2006 Annual Report p12 49 InBev Web site accessed April 2007 50 Access Asia Limited Beer in China a Market Analysis 2006 table 1 24 51 Ibid p 98 52 Zhigang Tao Anheuser Busch versus SABMiller Bidding War in China s Beer Industry HKU411 Hong Kong The University of Hong Kong 2004 p1 53 Access Asia Limited Beer in China a Market Analysis 2006 p 28 54 Mure Dickie INVESTING IN CHINA Two Barrel Approach for Anheuser BEVERAGE INDUSTRY Financial Times February 14 2007 55 Ally Zhang interview 56 SABMiller Our history SABMiller Web site accessed April 2007 57 Wikipedia Miller Brewing Company http en wikipedia org wiki Miller Brewing Company accessed April 2007 58 Food and Drink Europe website accessed April 2007 59 Bavaria S A History co ingles queesbavaria historia php Bavaria S A Web site accessed March 2007 60 SABMiller About SABMiller SABMiller Web site accessed April 2007 61 SABMiller plc 2006 Annual Report 62 Access Asia Limited Beer in China a Market Analysis 2006 p178 63 Ibid p150 64 SABMiller Our Markets China SABMiller Web site accessed April 2007 65 Thornburn Investment Management report accessed April 2007 66 Heineken Our History Heineken Web site accessed April 2007 67 Access Asia Limited Beer in China a Market Analysis 2006 p35 68 Anheuser Busch esta cada vez mais proxima da InBev Valor Economico Feb 15 2007 69 InBev Anheuser Busch Rise on Merge