浮动汇率对经济的影响.doc

浮动汇率对经济的影响（一）浮动汇率对经济的有利影响防止外汇储备太量流失。在浮动汇率制度下，各国货币当局没有义务维持货币的固定比价。当本币汇率下跌时，不必动用外汇储备去购进被抛售的本币，这样可以避免这个国家外汇储备的大量流失。节省国际储备。在浮动汇率制度下，汇率随着外汇供求的涨落而自动达到平衡，政府在很大程度上听任汇率由外汇市场支配，减少干预行动，国家需要的外汇储备的需求量自然可以减少。这就有助于节省国际储备，使更多的外汇能用于本国的经济建设。3自动调节国际收支。根据市场供求，汇率不断调整，可以使一国的国际收支自动达到均衡，从而免除长期不平衡的严重后果。当一国国际收支逆差，本国通货就会开始贬值，这种情况对出口有回将同时分布在盈余国和赤字国身上。4有利于国内经济政策的独立性。浮动汇率制度使各国可以独立地实行自己的货币政策、财政政策和汇率政策。在固定汇率制度下，各国政府为了维持汇率的上下限，必须尽力保持其外部的平衡。如一国的国际收支出现逆差时，往往采取紧缩性政策措施，减少进口和国内开支，使生产下降，失业增加。这样国内经济有时还要服从于国外的平衡。在浮动汇率制度下，通过汇率杠杆对国际收支进行自动调节，在一国发生暂时性或周期性失衡时，一定时期内的汇率波动不会立即影响国内的货币流通，一国政府不必急于使用破坏国内经济平衡的货币政策和财政政策来调节国际收支。5使经济周期和通货膨胀的国际传递减少到最小限度。贸易上有密切联系的国家间容易通过固定汇率传播经济周期或通货膨胀。1971年至1972年发生的国际性的通货膨胀，就是同固定汇率制密切相关的。在浮动汇率制度下，若一国国内物价普遍上升，通货膨胀严重，则会造成该国货币对外货币汇率下浮，该国出口商品的本币价格上涨便会被汇率下浮抵消，出口商品折成外币的价格因而变化不大，从而贸易伙伴国就少受国外物价上涨压力。但在固定汇率制度下，为了维持固定汇率，各国不得不经受相同的通货膨胀。已缓解国际游资的冲击。在固定汇率制度下，由于要维持货币的固定比价，会使汇率与货币币值严重背离，各种国际游资竟相追逐可以用来保值或用来谋求汇率变动利润的硬货币，这会导致国际游资的大规模单方面转移。在浮动汇率制下，汇率因国际收支、币值的变动等频繁调整，不会使币值与汇率严重背离，某些硬通货受到巨大冲击的可能性减少。在浮动汇率制下，资本外流会使该国货币在外汇市场上贬值。这种贬值又会使该国的生产者更容自动调节国际收支。利于国内经济政策的独立性。5使经济周期和通货膨胀的国际传递减少到最小限度。 (二)浮动汇率对经济的不利影响助长投机，加剧动荡。在这种制度下，汇率变动频繁且幅度大，为低买高抛的外汇投机提供了可乘之机。不仅一般投机者参与投机活动，连银行和企业也加入了这一行列。 1974年 6月，德国最大的私人银行之一赫斯塔特银行因外汇投机损失2亿美元而倒闭，其他如美国佛兰克林银行、瑞士联合银行等也都曾因外汇投机而导致信用危机。这种为牟取投机暴利而进行的巨额的、频繁的投机活动，加剧了国际金融市场的动荡。不利于国际贸易和国际投资。汇率波动导致国际市场价格波动，使人们普遍产生不安全感。外贸成本和对外投资损益的不确定性加大，风险加大，使人们不愿意缔结长期贸易契约和进行长期国际投资，使国际商品流通和资金借贷受到严重影响。货币战加剧。实行汇率下浮政策的主要目的是为了刺激出口，减少进口，改善贸易收支，进而扩张国内经济，增加生产和就业。浮动汇率可能导致竞争性贬值，各国都以货币贬值为手段，输出本国失业，或以它国经济利益为代价扩大本国就业和产出，这就是以邻为壑的政策。而实行汇率上浮政策，则主要是为了减少国际收支顺差，减少国内通货膨胀压力。例如，从 1980年第四季度起，美元汇率上浮，到1983年 9月，美元对10大工业国的币值平均上升了46。实行高汇率使美国的通货膨胀率急剧下降，1979年1980年通货膨胀率高达1213，1983年则降为39。据估算，1981年1983年美元汇率上浮使美国通货膨胀率下降45。当然，高汇率也不利于美国的出口，其间美国同西欧各国贸易逆差扩大，这又迫使美国加强贸易保护措施。使其与西欧和日本的矛盾和摩擦加剧。具有通货膨胀倾向。浮动汇率有其内在的通货膨胀倾向，可使一国长期推行通货膨胀政策，而不必担心国际收支问题。因为其汇率的下浮可一定程度上自动调节国际收支。一国际协调困难。浮动汇率制度助长各国在汇率上的利已主义或各自为政，削弱金融领域的国际合作，加剧国际经济关系的矛盾。提高了世界物价水平。在浮动汇率制度下，基金组织对国际储备的控制削弱了，以致国际储备的增长超过了世界经济发展和国际贸易增长所需的程度。所以总的来讲浮动汇率制度是提高了世界物价水平。对发展中国家不利。外汇汇率上升时，使广在发展中国家进口工业制成品价格上涨，而这些产品又是发展中国家经济建设所必需，故进口成本上升。外汇汇率下跌时，出口初级产品价格下跌，而初级产品需求弹性小，不会在价格下跌时使外贸收入增加，贸易收支得不到改善。浮动汇率还加剧了外债管理的难度，增大了风险。固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度在特定条件下均能发挥好的作用，条件改变后其缺点可能又很明显或突出。当今的浮动汇率制度，主要是防止浮动“过度”。从长期讲，以货币购买力平价作为浮动汇率的平均线，浮动幅度偏离均衡线就是“过度”。从短期看，要从货币资产的行市中去找均衡线，因为金融市场的行市变化快，对汇率的反应十分灵敏。The euro (sign: ; code: EUR) is the official currency of the European Union (EU), and is currently in use in 16 of the 27 Member States. The states, known collectively as the eurozone, are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.2 The currency is also used in a further five European countries, with and without formal agreements, and is consequently used daily by some 327million Europeans.3 Over 175million people worldwide use currencies which are pegged to the euro, including more than 150million people in Africa.The euro was established by the provisions in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty. In order to participate in the currency, Member States are meant to meet strict criteria such as a budget deficit of less than three per cent of their GDP, a debt ratio of less than sixty per cent of GDP, low inflation, and interest rates close to the EU average. In the Maastricht Treaty, the United Kingdom and Denmark were granted exemptions per their request from moving to the stage of monetary union which would result in the introduction of the euro.Flexible exchange rates The ECB targets interest rates rather than exchange rates and in general does not intervene on the foreign exchange rate markets, because of the implications of the Mundell-Fleming Model which suggest that a central bank cannot maintain interest rate and exchange rate targets simultaneously because increasing the money supply results in a depreciation of the currency. In the years following the Single European Act, the EU has liberalised its capital markets, and as the ECB has chosen monetary autonomy, the exchange rate regime of the euro is flexible, or floating.edit Against other major currencies After the introduction of the euro, its exchange rate against other currencies fell heavily, especially against the U.S. dollar. From an introduction at US$1.18/, the euro fell to a low of $0.8228/ by 26 October 2000. After the appearance of the coins and notes on 1 January 2002 and the replacement of all national currencies, the euro began steadily appreciating, and regained parity with the U.S. dollar, on 15 July 2002. The euro has not fallen below parity with the U.S. dollar since December 2002 but has risen in value.Euro exchange rate to USD, JPY, and GBPExchange rate evolution of the euro compared to USD, JPY and GBP. Exchange rate at start is put to 1.Green （USD）: in Jan-1999: 1 = $1.18; in Jul-2008: 1 = $1.57Red（ JPY）: in Jan-1999: 1 = 133; in Jul-2008: 1 = 168Blue （GBP）: in Jan-1999: 1 = 0.71; in Jul-2008: 1 = 0.80On 23 May 2003, the euro surpassed its initial ($1.18) trading value for the first time. At the end of 2004, it reached $1.3668 (0.7316/$) as the U.S. dollar fell against all major currencies. Against the U.S. dollar, the euro temporarily weakened in 2005, falling to $1.18 (0.85/$) in July 2005, and was stable throughout the third quarter of 2005. In November 2005 the euro again began to rise steadily against the U.S. dollar, hitting one record high after another. On 15 July 2008, the euro rose to an all-time high of $1.5990 (0.6254/$). In a reversal, in August 2008 the euro began to drop against the U.S. dollar. In just two weeks the euro fell from its peak to $1.48 and by late October it reached a two and a half year low below $1.25 before moving back above $1.50 by November 2009.60 On 29 December 2008, the pound sterling fell to an all-time low of 0.97855 (1.0219/) against the euro, although its value recovered somewhat in 2009.61 In early 2010, con