成功的决策.doc

Successful Decision MakingDecision-making is a key aspect of leadership in any organization, whether public or private. Frequently, however, the thinking behind these leaders decisions is intuitive and implicit rather than logical and explicit, creating the illusion that decisions just happen. In todays knowledge economy, research has shown that this approach to decision making neither engenders trust in the leadership nor commitment to the decision. What is offered here is a straightforward process for decision-making that can be used by individuals, either as an individual, or as a member of a group. Use of this process provides a framework for making the thinking behind a decision both logical and explicit and facilitates learning from experience.A good decision has several parameters.l It is based on data and incorporates multiple knowledgeable points of viewl It is timed to market (customer/consumer) needs and the companys organizational and financial capabilityl It is aligned to both long and short-term organizational goalsl It requires effort that is proportional to its impactl It takes a multidimensional viewpoint that includes resourcing/people, market/financial and technology aspects.There are both internal and external pressures that can push leaders away from successful decision-making. Internally, leaders themselves are often successful because of their bias for action. While there are times when a bias for action is very useful, it also can result in jumping to conclusions rather than follow a systematic process for decision-making. At the same time, leaders in both the public and private sectors experience external pressures. They are expected to solve problems as soon as they surface. Leaders who take time to study the problem and search for the best solution, rather than take the first one that comes to mind, are often seen as indecisive.Teams of managers make many business decisions. Due to many factors (i.e., groupthink, influence of strong personalities, etc) teams are often as vulnerable as individual managers to jumping to conclusions. This can undermine the commitment of the team to follow through on the decision and decrease the probability of success as well as the credibility of the team.Every decision is a learning opportunity. In fact, we could say that there are two distinct value propositions in every decision. One is the value from the outcome of the decision itself the product produced or the capacity built. The other is the learning from both the decision process and the outcome of the decision. Ignoring learning is tantamount to throwing away half of the value from the decision. However, under time pressure, leaders do just that. They often neglect to take the time to reflect and evaluate and learn from each decision. Learning becomes very haphazard, and leaders repeat the same expensive mistakes or miss opportunities to reapply successes.Following a process is one way to help leaders avoid jumping in and implementing the first solution that comes to mind. It creates an environment of systematic decision- making and creates opportunity for learning.Tool: A Decision Making ProcessWhat It Is: A simple process to follow to improve decision making, which helps improve individual decisions and creates a framework to learn about how decisions are made in your organization.What It Can Do: 1.Help leaders make better more informed systematic decisions.2. Impose a discipline on decision-making that helps avoid the trap of lunging to the first solution that comes to mind.3. Creates a vocabulary that allows leaders to share their thought process.4. Creates opportunities for learning about how decisions are made.How It Works: Breaking each decision into a six-step process increases the probability of success and of learning from each decision and applying those learnings in future decisions.Following the process helps prevent jumping to easily available, but not necessarily optimum inferences. It helps leaders assess the situation and draw well-reasoned conclusions. It also creates a framework to explain the reasoning behind decisions that helps to build commitment to the decision. The six-step process is:1. Frame the Decision2. Gather Information3.Analyze the Information4.Draw Conclusions5.Take Action6.Learn from ExperienceFrame the DecisionFraming is the window through which we see the decision, and it puts the decision in context. Framing is setting the scope and deciding which aspects of the problem are most important and should be emphasized. Without a frame we would be attempting to boil the ocean with every decision. Framing is key it cannot be delegated. It is the leaders responsibility to set the context for every decision, and thereby establish the scope and priorities.Framing is so natural that people tend to do it without thinking. Generally, people are unaware of their decision frames, which typically have roots in their experience and expertise. For example, an executive with a background in engineering tends to frame decisions as technical problems, while an executive from marketing tends to frame the same decisions as market issues. Frames for most business and public sector decisions need to include the resourcing/people, market/financial, and technology factors to be effective.Leaders must be aware of their frames to test them against the demands of the situation and to articulate why it is the right frame for this decision. Their frames must be broad enough to cover the important business issues, and precise enough to give clear direction.Avoid Falling back on old familiar frames without considering if they are appropriate for this situation.Gather Information收集信息Once the leader has set the frame, gathering information can be delegated. A well defined and understood frame drives what information needs to be applied in each situation. However, an unrecognized frame can hide important factors and sources of information. 一旦领导设定了框架，收集信息可以委任给他人。一个明确定义和容易理解的结构限定了在应用在每个情况下的需要收集的资料。而一个无法辨识的结构会隐藏一些重要因素和信息的来源。When gathering information, it is important to know what you dont know. Thus, the first step in gathering information is an honest assessment of what you know and what you dont.当你收集信息的时候，了解你不知道什么非常重要。因此，收集信息的第一步是对你了解和不了解的信息做一个诚实的评估。Hidden assumptions can dangerously hide important information. So it is important to determine what you know that aint so - question all assumptions about what is known. Ask yourself disconfirming questions to uncover hidden assumptions.隐藏的假设会危险地隐藏一些重要的信息。因此，判断那些你所知道并非它们的真貌也很重要质疑所有已知的猜想，要求自己驳斥那些问题，来发现隐藏的假设。Future trends are important in gathering information. Investigate PEST projections (political, economic, social, technological factors) for possible areas of change in the future.未来的趋势对收集信息很重要。使用序贯实验参数据算法的预测（政治的，经济的，社会的，技术的因素）调查每个未来可能有改变的领域。Avoid Overconfidence in your assumptions and what “is known” can lead to a failure to collect key information.避免对你的猜想和对你所谓已知的过分自信，因为这会导致收集关键信息的失败。Analyze the Information分析信息Like gathering the information analyzing it, or reducing it to usable chunks, can also be delegated. Whoever analyzes the information, it is important to be systematic. Use a weighting system to make sure no information is ignored or over emphasized. Weigh possible outcomes considering both the likelihood that they will occur and the consequences if they do.如同收集信息，分析信息或者是删减成可用的部分，也可以委派给他人。无论是谁分析信息，系统的分析非常重要。使用一个权衡的系统来确定没有忽视或者过分强调任何信息。权衡可能的结果考虑它出现的可能性和可能导致的结果。Analyze data considering its resourcing/people, market/financial & technology impacts. For example, basing a product decision on technology considerations can be disastrous if the market is not ready for it. Or overextending to meet perceived market demands without sufficient people to successfully complete a product or project is ignoring an important aspect of the decision that could have serious consequences.分析数据要考虑它的资源/人力，市场/金融&科技因素。例如：如果市场还没有成熟，基于技术考虑的产品决定可能很糟，或者是过分扩展地迎合已经意识到市场需求而没有足够的人来成功地完成一个产品或工程师是忽视能有严重后果的决定的重要方面。Use SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) to organize analysis. Strengths and Weaknesses are internal to your organization know what your organization can accomplish and what it cannot. Opportunities and Threats are environmental understand the market opportunities and the threats from competition.使用SWOT分析法（优势、劣势、机会和威胁）来组织翻译。优势和劣势是组织的内在，知道你的组织能完成什么和不能完成什么。机会和威胁是有关环境的了解市场机会和竞争的威胁。Avoid Failing to be systematic in combining information, and over- or under-weighing a piece of information because it is salient or was relevant in the past.避免不能系统的综合信息，避免过分重视或轻视一条信息，因为它是重要的或者在过去才是有价值的。Draw Conclusions下结论Like setting the frame drawing conclusions cannot be delegated. It is the leaders role to see the bigger picture and to use the analyzed data to draw the effective conclusion for the organization. The analyst, who gathers the information and analyzes it, is often an expert in one field. He or she can go into great depth and see many important nuances that the leader could miss.如同制定框架，下结论是不能委任的。看到更大的局面和使用分析好的数据来为机构做有效的决定是领导的角色。分析员，收集并分析了信息，通常是某个领域的专家。他能深入信息并看到一些领导可能未察觉的重要的差别。It is the leaders role to understand the larger multidimensional industry or public context. For example, only the leader is in a position to decide if a product that is technically feasible with excellent market possibilities, should be attempted when the key knowledge workers are involved in other important work that cannot be set aside. Avoid Getting in to the details too much and not taking a step back, and thus failing to put the decision in the larger organizational context.领导的角色是理解更大的多面的产业或者公共背景。例如，如果某个位置领导决定当关键的知识工作者参与其他重要的不能搁置的工作时是否应该尝试生产一个有着良好的市场可能性的技术可行的产品Take Action 执行In many decisions, it may not the role of the decision-maker to take action. Typically the action is delegated to professionals in technology or manufacturing or finance or other areas. Commitment on the part of those professionals is essential to success. Without it the best decision will fail.许多决定可能不是做决定的人来执行。通常，执行会委任给在技术或生产或金融或其他领域的专家。这些执行专家的保证是成功必要的保证。没有他们，最好的决定也将失败。In the knowledge economy, creativity and expertise are resources that are locked in employees minds. Sharing them can only happen voluntarily. Fair Process, as defined by Kim & Mauborgne, builds the trust and commitment necessary to succeed in the knowledge economy. They define three steps to Fair Process: Engagement, Explanation, and Expectation.在知识经济时代，创造和专业知识都储存在雇员的脑海里。分享它们仅仅只发生在自愿时。公平的过程，由金和莫博涅定义的，建立了信任和承诺对知识经济的成功非常必要。他们界定公平的过程有三个步骤：了解，解释和期望。1. Engagement - Involve affected individuals in the decisions. Everyone should beheard and understood.了解涉及了在决定中有关人。每个人都应该了解。2.Explanation - Explain the thinking behind the decision. Helps people support adecision when their ideas have been rejected.解释解释决定背后的思考。帮助人们支持决定当他们的想法被拒绝。3. Expectation - State clearly the new rules of the game and what is expected fromthose affected.期望清楚的陈述游戏的新规则和对相关人的期待什么Fair Process is a key leverage point for employee commitment to a decision.对职员的保证来说，公平的过程是一个决定的关键的杠杆平衡点Avoid Not involving critical players affected by the decision in the decision process, and expecting them to carry out a decision that they do not fully understand.避免不牵涉重要的在决策过程中会受影响的选手而期待他们能执行一个他们不是完全理解的决定。Learn from Experience从经验中学习All learning depends on feedback. Decisions can have effects within the company and in the marketplace. Both are sources of vital information. Using this information can improve future decisions. However, there are both individual and organizational barriers to getting and then using feedback.所有的学习都依赖于回馈信息。决定对公司和市场都会产生影响。他们都是重要信息的来源。实用这些信息能改进将来的决定。但是，他们都是个人和组织得到和使用回馈信息的障碍。There is an old saying, “Victory has a thousand fathers; defeat is an orphan.” This comes from two behaviors that distort our ability as individuals to learn from experience. When the outcome turns out well, research has shown people have an illusion of the amount of control they had even over random events. When the outcome turns out poorly people are apt to rationalize away errors that could have been controlled. This tendency to attribute success to skill and failures to bad luck and influences outside our control clouds our ability to learn from experience.古话说：“胜利有一千个父亲，而失败是个孤儿。”这来自两种歪曲我们个人的能力来从中学习经验的行为。当结果证明很好时，调查给人一种人们能控制一切的假象，即便是那些随机的事件。当结果不好时，人很容易找到那些可以控制的错误发生的原因，这种把成功归于技巧而把失败归因于厄运和我们无法控制的外界的影响模糊了我们从中学习经验的能力。Every decision made and every action taken is an opportunity to learn. Yet if theorganization does not keep track of decisions it misses this opportunity. Include in every important decision a plan on gathering information and learning from experience.做每一个决定和采取每一步行动都是学习的机会。但是如果组织没有了解决定则失去了这个机会，这包括每个重要的决定，收集信息和学习经验的计划。To take advantage of the learning opportunity of decisions, the US Army uses a process known as After Action Reviews (AARs) to help decision makers learn from experience. During training exercises and after real military engagements, specialists conduct “rank-blind” feedback sessions. The sessions are decidedly “low-tech” focused around four basic questions. 1) What went well? 2) What went poorly? 3) What should be sustained? 4) What should be improved? Officers get immediate feedback. Information from many AARs is collated together and examined for trends that are then incorporated into future Army training.为了利用学习做决定的机会，美国军队使用一套被称作“行动后的回顾”的程序来帮助做决定的人学习经验。在培训训练的期间和在真正的军事战斗之后，专家开展秩盲的回馈会议，这个会议明显低技术的集中于四个基本问题：1)哪些进展很好？2)哪些进展差？3)哪些应该保留并坚持？4）哪些必须改进？长官们得到及时的回馈。从“行动后的回顾”得到的信息会被集中整理并纳入军队训练趋势研究，Avoid Losing vital information by not keeping track of decisions and their outcomes and checking for trends and possible biases.避免因不跟踪了解决定以及其结果和检查趋势以及可能的偏向而失去重要信息Some Things to Consider考虑项目Managers and leaders are often rewarded for action. Taking the time to be systematic may take some discipline in the beginning. In the long run it pays off by improved decision making. Consistently using a checklist to track and audit decisions enforces a discipline and reinforces the learning by helping clarify trends over time.管理者和领导经常因行动得到报酬，把时间系统化可能在开始时设定一些规章制度。在长期经营中的成功来自提高的做决定。坚持使用一个记事清单而随着时间的推移帮助清楚阐明趋势来追踪和审查决定来执行纪律和加强学习Decision Making Checklist决定清单Yes是No否Frame the Decision设计决定Has the leader created a clear description of the decision to be made?领导是否对将要做的决定有清楚的描述？Has the leader articulated a frame that is understood by the team and can be used to drive the following steps?领导时候清楚的表达这个框架使得团队能够理解和按照步骤使用？Gather Information收集信息Is it clear who is responsible for gathering information?谁负责收集资料是否清楚？Have assumptions been closely examined?猜想是否仔细地检查？Were diverse opinions sought out and discussed是否找出不同的观点并讨论？Is it clear who is responsible for analysis?是否清楚谁负责分析？Analyze Information分析信息Has the information been analyzed considering its technology, market/financial, and resource/people impacts?分析信息是否考虑到它的技术，市场/金融，和资源/人力因素？Has a weighting system been established to be sure no data is overlooked or given too much importance?权衡系统是否能确立没有数据被过分重视？Draw Conclusions下结论Have the conclusions been drawn by the leader(s) and not by a delegate?是否是由领导而不是代理下结论？Does the conclusion take the bigger picture and long term goals into account?结论是否考虑到更大的局面和长远的目标？Take Action执行Were the three steps of Fair Process (engagement, explanation, and expectation) implemented to gain commitment?公平的过程三个步骤（了解，解释和期望）是否执行？Are those affected by the decision committed to it? 那些是否受到致力于它的决定的影响？Learn fromExperience从经验中学习Is there a tool or process in place for gaining and using feedback?是否有工具或者程序用来取得并时候回馈信息？Example: A systematic approach for making a decision例子：一个系统的做决定的途径Suppose you are the CEO of a moderate sized manufacturing company. Your company has factories in two small towns, but both of the factories are working at absolute capacity and are beginning to miss promised delivery dates on some orders. You know that key customers are beginning to look for other sources, and you begin the process of deciding what to do.假设你是一个中等规模的制造工厂的执行总裁。你的公司在两个小镇有工厂，但是两个工厂都以最大能力在工作而开始不能完成一些订单的承诺的交货日期。你知道主要的客户开始寻找其他的货源，你开始决定该做什么的程序。First you frame the problem. You explain to your analysts that the most important aspect of this problem is to create a solution in the shortest time that will satisfy customer demand at the lowest cost. You further refine the frame to explain that costs and time are important, but satisfying customer demand is the number one criterion.首先设定问题的框架。你向你的分析师杰斯这个问题最重要的方面是创建解决方案，在最短的时间以最低的成本来满足客户的需求。你进一步定义这个框架来解释成本和时间是重要的，但是满足客户需求为第一标准。The analysts begin gathering data. They dont want to assume that demand will remain steady so they commission the market research group to provide forecasts of future customer demand. They research the cost of the various options分析师开始收集数据，他们不想断定需求将一直保持稳定所以他们委任市场调查组提供未来客户需求的预测。他们研究各种选择的成本。Your analysts discover that there are three possible options: 1) Expand the existing facilities, which can be done at moderate costs, but does not allow for introducing new tools and machines that can increase productivity. 2) Build a new facility at a third location. This is an expensive option that makes more time, but it allows for installing the latest machines and tools. 3) Do nothing. This option creates no outlay of money, but it leaves the company vulnerable to missing more delivery dates. Since the world is an uncertain place, your market forecasters provide probabilities for various demand levels in the future. They indicate the there is a low likelihood that demand will lessen, moderate likelihood that it will grow, and a high probability that it will remain steady.你的分析师发现了有三种可能的选择：1)扩展现有的能以中等成本完成的设施，但是不允许引进新的技术和机器来增大产出。2)在第三个位置建立设施。这是一个昂贵