美联储的美元大赌局(转自财富中文网).doc

美联储的美元大赌局 作者: Allan Sloan 时间: 2013年01月25日 来源: 财富中文网 位置： 商业金融 字体 大 中 小 窗体顶端打印 窗体底端发表评论伯南克的低利率政策已经推低美元汇率，美元贬值提升了美国产品和服务在全球市场上的竞争力。但也令中国、日本等贸易伙伴利益受损。各国央行正在酝酿以本币贬值方式夺回一局。 转贴到： 新浪微博 关注 腾讯微博 开心网 加入 人人网 豆瓣美元贬值使美国制造商在全球市场更具竞争力，如图中通用电气公司位于路易斯维尔的家电工厂。落健生发液（Rogaine）和美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve，简称美联储）的经济刺激政策有什么共同点？请不要往本伯南克和艾伦格林斯潘的发际线这个方向去考虑。想不出来了吧？答案是：副作用。正如您可能知道的，落健生发液最初是作为血压药开发的，但后来“更改用途”，因为它有促进头发生长的副作用。今天我们将讨论美联储的两大副作用与一些主要贸易伙伴的潜在货币战以及降低联邦预算赤字。虽然落健生发液更为家喻户晓，但是美联储两大副作用要比生发液重要得多。作者没有任何冒犯秃头男性的意思。美联储的第一个副作用，即货币战争，表明通过降低利率来刺激经济这种好事可能也有弊端。由于美联储降息比大多数其他央行来得更快且幅度更大，导致美元兑许多主要贸易伙伴国货币的汇率走软。当然，美联储并没有大张旗鼓地向公众表示它乐意看到这样的局面。但事实正是如此，因为美元逐渐贬值会使美国的出口产品更便宜，而进口自他国的产品变得更昂贵，这样一来就会促进美国本土的就业增长。问题是，如果所有国家都寻求本币贬值，大家都不会得到好处。【事实上，在80年前的大萧条（Great Depression）出现前，这个问题就曾一度抬头。】而且，不仅没有好处，相关经济体还会面临广泛的不稳定性、恐惧和贸易战争。对于这种可能性，即使像我这样的先天乐天派都会感到有一点点紧张。读者可以从下图看出，自2009年以来，美元兑主要贸易伙伴国货币的汇率已下跌超过10%。正是在国际金融危机全面爆发的2009年，美联储推出了一个又一个的计划，以期压低利率。尽管美元可能在2009年处于虚高水平，但它随后的下跌对贸易产生了重大影响。What do Rogaine and the Federal Reserves economic-stimulus policies have in common? No, it doesnt involve Ben Bernankes or Alan Greenspans hairlines. Give up? The answer: side effects.Rogaine, as you may know, was originally developed as a blood pressure medication but was repurposed because it had the side effect of promoting hair growth. The two Fed side effects well discuss today - prospective currency wars with some major trading partners, and a reduction in the federal budget deficit - are far less known than Rogaines. But, with all due respect to follicularly challenged males, theyre a lot more important.The first Fed side effect, currency wars, is an example of how something good - stimulating our economy by lowering interest rates - can have a downside. Cutting interest rates faster and more deeply than most other central banks has weakened the dollar against the currencies of many of our major trading partners. The Fed doesnt exactly run around telling the public that its happy to see this happen. But thats the case, because a gradually declining dollar encourages job growth in our country by making our exports cheaper and our imports more expensive.The problem, which reared its head in the run-up to the Great Depression 80 years ago, is that if everyone devalues, no one benefits. Instead, you get widespread instability, fear, and trade wars. The prospect of that makes even a congenital optimist like me more than a little nervous.You can see from the chart below that the dollar has dropped more than 10% against the currencies of our major trading partners since 2009, when the world financial crisis was in full swing and the Fed invented one program after another to drive down interest rates. The dollar may well have been artificially high in 2009, but nevertheless, its subsequent decline has had a major impact on trade.图表显示，随着美联储打响“反”美元战争，开始下调利率以来，美元汇率不断走低，10年期美国国债收益率也开始下降。（资料来源：美联储）美国制造业正在显示出复苏迹象，部分原因在于美元贬值已使美国国内生产的产品较外国产品更具竞争力。不过，甲之蜜糖，乙之砒霜。对于美国而言的好事对于其他国家而言就成了坏事，因为其他国家的产品将因价格相对上涨而被美国市场抛弃，并被迫在其他市场与更为便宜（以本币衡量）的美国商品展开竞争。作为经济刺激计划的一部分，日本新首相安倍晋三正在向日本央行施压，迫使它走日元贬值的路子。中国也正考虑类似路线。德国也在推动各项计划，它们名义上是为了帮助经济上陷入困境的欧元区国家，但实际上也将压低欧元汇率，使德国产品更具竞争力，虽然直接控制欧元的是欧洲央行，而非德国。美联储正在玩一个复杂的、高风险的游戏。美元是世界储备货币，这使得美国能够吸收来自世界各地的资金，并将这些资金用于贸易和解决预算赤字问题，而无需平衡账户。在美国国内情况（美元走低是利好）以及美元作为储备货币的角色（美元贬值过快可能会使投资者恐慌并导致其失去储备货币地位）之间存在矛盾关系。而美联储低利率政策的第二大副作用是纯粹的好事即为解决联邦预算赤字问题提供资金。自四年前大力实施刺激计划以来，美联储已经获得巨额利润，而且这些利润几乎全部交给了美国财政部。去年，美联储宣布获利约910亿美元，其中889亿美元交给了美国财政部。2008年，也就是上一个近乎正常的年度，交付金额为317亿美元。2009年至2011年交付金额分别达474亿美元、793亿美元和754亿美元。美联储的利润不断飙升，因为其证券投资组合规模已从2007年年底的约7,500亿美元上升至去年年底的2.65万亿美元左右。美联储一直在大力收购美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，以期推高它们的价格，而这会压低利率。美联储用实质上凭空创造出来的资金购买这些证券，然后将资金计入出售证券的金融机构在美联储的账户。美联储对卖家留在这些账户上的资金支付名义利息，而从这些账户中提取用于其他目的（如发放贷款）的资金则无利息支付。同时，美联储收取其已购买证券的利息。因此，扩大投资组合让美联储获得了巨大的盈利。新泽西州普林斯顿全球经济和金融市场研究公司四通麦卡锡研究协会（Stone McCarthy Research Associates）联席创始人雷斯通是美联储问题领域的专家，他说：“美联储实施这些计划并不是为了寻求自身利润最大化，这只是一个副作用。”他预计，相比去年，今年美联储将实现更高利润，交付给美国财政部的资金也会更多。此外，预计美联储今年将收购约5,400亿美元的美国国债，而这将间接为今年的联邦预算赤字填补约一半资金缺口。如果您能搞明白这点，那可以说得上是相当了不起了。那就再接再厉吧！落健生发液和美联储降息之间还有一个关键区别：持久力。您可以一直使用落健生发液，但美联储不断降低利率的计划不具有无限的保质期。伯南克将美国利率推低至现代最低水平，但他不能将利率降至零以下。即便美联储不愿意收紧货币政策，但它无从控制世界它不能无限期地承受来自金融市场及其他央行的压力。当美联储不可回避地开始加息时，美元将随之上涨，美联储的利润和交付给美国财政部的资金也将下降。总之，医药刺激是永恒的。但美联储的刺激不是。（财富中文网）U.S. manufacturing is showing signs of recovery, in part because the dollars decline has made domestically produced products more competitive with foreign products. But whats good for us is bad for countries whose products are being priced out of our market and are being forced to compete with cheaper (in terms of their currencies) U.S. goods in other markets, including their own.The new Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is pushing his countrys central bank to run down the value of the yen as part of his economic stimulus program. China is thinking along similar lines. Germany, which doesnt control the euro directly - the European Central Bank does - is pushing programs that are nominally aimed at economically struggling euro countries, but that will also drive down the euros value, making Germany more competitive.The Fed is playing a complicated, high-stakes game here. The dollar is the worlds reserve currency, which allows us to suck in money from all over the world to fund our trade and budget deficits without having to balance our accounts. Theres a tension between our internal situation (a lower dollar is good) and our role as a reserve currency (a dollar that falls too rapidly risks spooking investors and costing us our reserve-currency status).By contrast, the second side effect of the Feds low-rate policies - helping finance our federal budget deficit - is an unalloyed good thing.The Fed has been making huge profits since its stimulus programs kicked into high gear four years ago, and it has contributed virtually all of them to the Treasury. Last year, the Fed says, it made about $91 billion in profits and sent $88.9 billion of that to the Treasury. Thats up from $31.7 billion it sent in 2008, the last almost-normal year, and $47.4 billion, $79.3 billion, and $75.4 billion from 2009 through 2011, respectively.The Feds profit is soaring because the size of its securities portfolio has risen, to about $2.65 trillion at the end of last year from about $750 billion at year-end 2007. The Fed has been buying Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by the boatload in order to raise their prices, which has the effect of driving down interest rates.The Fed bought these securities with money that it essentially created out of thin air and then credited to the Fed accounts of the financial institutions that sold the securities. The Fed pays nominal interest on the money that sellers leave in those accounts, and no interest on the money withdrawn from them for other purposes, such as making loans. Meanwhile, the Fed collects interest on the securities it has bought. Thus, expanding the portfolio has been hugely profitable.The Fed isnt running these programs to maximize its own profit; thats just a side effect, says Ray Stone of Stone McCarthy Research Associates of Princeton, N.J., a leading Fed maven. He predicts that the Fed will post higher profits - and send more money to the Treasury - this year than it did last year.On top of that, the Feds projected purchases of about $540 billion of Treasury securitie