2010年亚洲电信产业研究报告

CompanyGlobalMarkets ResearchAsia Pan-Asia Telecommunic ations 2 July 2010 Asian Telecoms Sector Half-time review in a challenging year William Bratton Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6186 william.brattondb .c om 1H10 trends generally support our regional sector view The Asian telco sector has had a relatively good 1H10 with strong performances in Malaysia, China and Thailand while the Indian, Phili p pine and Indonesian telco sectors have performed the worst. We expect the key 1H10 themes (smartphones, competition and NBNs) to persist into 2H10 and maintain our regional preferences. Within the sector we recommend ov er-weighting China, Indonesia, T aiwan and Thailand and under-weighting India, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. Our preferred telcos remain AIS, CHT, LGT, STH, TLKM and Unicom. A relativ ely good 2010 first half for the Asian telco sector The MSCI Asia ex-JP Telecom Services Index (MXASJTC) is up 3% over the last six months and has out-performed the MSCI Asia ex-JP Index (MXASJ) by approx 8%. Nearly two-thirds of DB covered telcos achiev ed absolute price gains and most DB covered telcos out-performed their local benchmark s since end-2009. Specifically, the best 1H10 performing sectors across the region in terms of total mark et cap changes were Malaysia (+9%) and China (+8%) while the worst were India (-12%), the Philippines (-7%) and Indonesia (-7%). The best performing telco was XL Axiata while both Axiata and PCCW achieved 20% price gains over the last six months. In contrast, during 1H10 TCNZs price fell 24% (close to 20yr lows), Tata is down 22%, Bharti lost 20% and Telkom declined 19% (see inside for 1H10 reviews for specific stocks). Key 1H10 themes likely to persist into 2H10 1H10 sector themes were generally dominated by smartphones and mobile data (in Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), competition trends (especially in India and the Philippines) and National Broadband Network dev elopments (in Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore). We expect these same issues to continue to dominate into 2H10. However, the actual impact of NBNs on market competition and structures is likely to become clearer (we believe concerns that NBN will result in long-term structural changes are misplaced) while we also expect a greater understanding in 2H10 of the actual economics of mobile data (we think mobile data growth will not be as beneficial for telcos as often believed). However, although the sectors fundamental themes remain difficult, some markets and specific stocks still remain attractiv e. In addition, the sector may benefit from general uncertainty given its underlying defensiv eness. Maintaining our regional sector preferences into 2H10 Our regional sector strategy is significantly influenced by competition trends. As a result, although YTD trends have generally reflected our regional preferenc es, we maintain our recommended sector weightings into 2H10. Specifically, we recommend investors stay or go overweight the Chinese, Indonesian, Taiwan and Thai telco sectors, and stay or go under-weight the Indian, Korean, Malaysian and Philippine sectors. Within this context, our regional top picks are AIS, Chunghwa, LGT, Starhub, Telkom and Unicom. In particular, Chunghwa is our regionally preferred defensiv e yield telco and we recommend both Unicom and Telkom for investors seeking exposure to the sectors increasingly rare growth opportunities. Our standard valuation methodology is DCF analysis and key risks are competition, regulation and technology (see p17). See p15 for regional comps. Industry Update Top picks AIS (ADVA.BK),THB86.75 Buy China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD10.54 Buy CHT (2412.TW ),TWD64.20 Buy LG Telecom (032640.KS),KRW 7,740.00 Buy Telkom (TLKM.JK),IDR7,700.00 Buy Companies featured AIS (ADVA.BK),THB86.75 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 14.6 13.6 14.1 E V /E B ITDA (x) 5.6 5.6 6.1 Price/book (x) 3.6 4.5 4.5 China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD10.54 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 21.4 30.2 22.0 E V /E B ITDA (x) 4.6 5.0 4.7 Price/book (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 CHT (2412.TW ),TW D64.20 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 14.0 14.4 14.4 E V /E B ITDA (x) 5.8 5.8 5.7 Price/book (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6 LG Telecom (032640.KS),KRW 7,740.00 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 7.8 6.3 5.9 E V /E B ITDA (x) 2.9 1.8 1.7 Price/book (x) 1.15 1.05 0.94 Starhub (STAR.SI),SGD2.30 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 11.0 13.9 12.8 E V /E B ITDA (x) 6.4 7.6 7.2 Price/book (x) 29.3 59.4 121.2 Telkom (TLKM.JK),IDR7,700.00 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 14.6 12.4 11.4 E V /E B ITDA (x) 5.1 4.5 4.1 Price/book (x) 4.78 2.98 2.60 Related recen t resea rch Date Asian Telecoms: Buy Unicom & Telkom for increasingly rare growth W illiam Bratton 22 Jun 2010 Asian Telecoms: Philippines outlook still tough but more positive on Indonesia W illiam Bratton 14 Jun 2010 Asian Telecoms: Six telcos with potential to accelerate returns W illiam Bratton 26 May 2010 Asian Telecoms: Key take-aways from our DB Access Asia expert speakers W illiam Bratton 18 May 2010 Asian Telecoms: W here we are different from Consensus and why W illiam Bratton 27 Apr 2010 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other v endors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies cov ered in its research reports. Thus, inv estors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Inv estors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inv estment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALY ST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 007/05/2010 2 July 2010 Telecommunications Asian Telecoms Sector Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 1H10 in review For a full comps table please turn to p15, for more details on relative price performance please refer to p16 and for an overv iew of the general sector valuation methodology and associated risks, please see p17. Australia: NBN issues will continue to dominate into 2H10 Andrew Anagnostellis (+61 2 8258 2218, ) Figure 1: Relativ e price performance versus local benchm ark S&P/ASX 200 Telstra 1M chg -2.9% +10.2% 3M chg -11.8% +8.3% 6M chg -11.7% -5.2% 12M chg +8.8% -3.0% Note: Until close 30th June 2010 Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP, Deutsche Bank Telstra has declined 5% year-to-date but this number disguises some significant price mov ements over recent months. For example, Telstra had a relatively difficult start to the year falling 15% from end Dec 09 through to its Mar 2010 lows. Much of this decline was in second half Feb after it reported 1H10 results below expectations and on the back of news- flow about Telstras potential separation. The stock subsequently remained constrained through to 25 May 2010 (when it hit a ten year A$2.89 low) but it has since rallied and is up approximately 12.5% subsequently on increased clarity on the relationship between Telstra and NBNCo (the company which will operate the National Broadband Network). Specifically, in Jun 2010, an agreement was proposed (subject to shareholder, regulatory and Gov ernment approval) which would 1) pay Telstra to decommission its copper network and deactiv ate its cable broadband service； 2) pay Telstra a fee per subscriber migrated to the NBNCo network； 3) give NBNCo access to Telstras network infrastructure (e.g. ducts) via long-term leasing； 4) allow Telstra to bid for broadband wireless spectrum； and 5) reduce Telstras Universal Service Obligation (USO) commitment. In total, the deals value is estimated at A$11bn to Telstra of which A$9bn comes from migration of its subscribers to the NBNCo network and A$2bn from policy reforms (e.g. the reduced USO levy). What to watch for in 2H10 There is one key issue in the Australian telecom sector the National Broadband Networ k (NBN) and how it potentially impacts Telstra. This should be the focus of attention over the next six months and increasing clarity / understanding on its impact will be a key driver of Telstras price performance. In addition, howev er, it wil l be necessary to keep any eye on Telstras underlying operational trends given the weak 1H10 and the challenging outlook. In fact, in the potential absence of any further specific developments on the NBN, we believe the focus could shift back towards the underlying operating conditions. Regional sector view: Still neutral on Australia. Telstra may offer a compelling yield (8.5% expected over next three years) but ongoing uncertainty over NBN impact prevents us from getting too excited. 2 July 2010 Telecommunications Asian Telecoms Sector Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 China: One of the best performing telco sectors in 1H10 Alan Hellawell (+852 2203 6240, ) Figure 2: Relativ e price performance versus local benchm ark HSI CM CT CU 1M chg +1 .8% +7 .0% +7 .1% +11.3% 3M chg -5.2% +3.5% -3.6% +19.2% 6M chg -8.0% +7.3% +16.0% +2.5% 12M chg +9.5% +0.8% -2.6% +2.7% Note: Until close 30th June 2010 Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP, Deutsche Bank The Chinese telco sector has been one of the best performing YT D (second only to Malaysia) with all three telcos outperforming the benchmark HSI index since end-2009. In part, we believe this relatively good performance reflects our previously highlighted view that competition was unlikely to be as sev ere as earlier feared (see China Unicom: Benefiting from a new competitiv e thesis, u/g to Buy, 26 Feb 2010) which prompted us to upgrade our China weighting within the regional sector context from under-weight to ov er-weight (see Asian Telecoms: Going positive on China but more cautious on Indonesia, 26 Feb 2010). China Telecom experienced the best 1H10 price performance (+16.0% ) among the three operators as it continued to make very steady progress in both its fixed line and mobile businesses. For example, the companys mobile division has achiev ed solid net adds through 1H10 (averaging 3m each month), while the broadband division also gained traction (averaging 800k net adds per month). In addition, the bundling of fixed line voice with broadband has slowed the migration of fixed voice subscribers to competitors. China Mobile has been generally range-bound over the last six months. The company still has the largest share of Chinas net adds, av eraging over 5m per month, is still generating substantial cash and has been substantially de-rated over recent years (currently trading at 11.8x forward earnings). As a result, we recently upgraded China Mobile to Buy (see China Mobile: Slimming subsidies, cutting capex, upgrade to Buy, 31 May 2010). In addition, although its use of TD-SCDMA technology remains an ov er-hang, the company is now promoting TD as a “fixed wireless terminal” a strategy which may reduce concerns over the relevance of the TD technology. China Unicom underperformed the other two players on lackluster net adds through to Apr 2010. In May, howev er, the company intensified its acquisition efforts by expanding its promotional offers such as greater iPhone subsidies and the introduction of the increasingly popular Lenovo LePhone. The resulting recov ery in May net adds suggests initial success (3G net adds for May exceed ed 1m, an increase of 50% over Aprils net adds) and has resulted in a 10% price gain since Unicom announced its May net adds (see China Unicom: An encouraging month, 18 Jun 2010). We expect gradual MoM growth in Unicom net adds over 2H10 and into 2011e and as a result, Unicom remains our preferred Chinese telco and one of our regional top picks (especially for investors still seeking growth). What to watch for in 2H10 Competition: With Unicom increasingly aggressive in its promotion of its WCDMA serv ices through subsidies and potential tariff cuts, it is possible that both Mobile and Telecom may be forced to respond if Unicom gains significant traction. Capex increase: It is possible capex may not fall as much as earlier anticipated as operators may focus on increasing network capacity to support fixed and mobile broadband services. 2 July 2010 Telecommunications Asian Telecoms Sector Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong China Mobiles expansion into fixed line: If China Mobile aggressively positions itself in the fixed line sector then it is possible that its move may impact both Telecoms and Unicoms existing fixed line businesses. Regional sector view: Still our preferred growth market and from a regional sector perspectiv e we recommend over-weighting China especially as we expect competition to remain benign. We have Buys on all three Chinese telcos but China Unicom remains preferred and it is one of our regional top picks especially as we expect further evidence through 2010 of improved operational performance. Hong Kong: A quiet 1H10 and no change expected in 2H10 William Bratton (+852 2203 6186, ) Figure 3: Relativ e price performance versus local benchm ark HSI PCCW 1M chg +1.8% +7.5% 3M chg -5.2% -0.9% 6M chg -8.0% +21.9% 12M chg +9.5% +12.9% Note: Until close 30th June 2010 Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP, Deutsche Bank The only 1H10 ev ent in HKs telecom sector of any note was the successful privatisation of HTIL by Hutchison Whampoa (13 HK, Buy, HK$48.9). Otherwise, competition tr ends hav e stayed benign and there have been no significant regulatory dev elopments. Within this stable env ironment, PCCW has been one of the best performing telcos across the sector with a 22% price gain over the period despite no obv ious catalyst and despite the Street still being generally cautious on the company (6 Sells, 2 Holds and 3 Buys). Nev ertheless, we still like PCCW and recommend Buy with a HK$2.90 target versus HK$2.28 last close. What to watch for in 2H10 It is difficult to identify a particular potential 2H10 ev ent or trend to highlight. We still believ e competition trends should remain benign while there are no obv ious regulatory changes scheduled over the next six months one of the reasons we still like HK from a regional sector perspectiv e and recommend an over-weight stance. Regional sector view: It may be a small market with PCCW the only remaining listed telco of any particular size, but given our positive view on PCCW and our expectations that competition will remain subdued and regulato