经济学人 文章选读 1.doc

2011.05.26Time for a change 改变的时刻Why a euro-zone finance minister, even a talented one, should not lead the IMF为什么欧元区的财政部长，即使能力超群，也不应该入主国际货币基金组织OFFICIALLY the search for a new head of the IMF, to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who awaits trial on charges of sexual assault, has barely begun. The funds member governments have until June 10th to propose candidates, after which a shortlist will be drawn up. But in practice the race seems all but over. That is because European countries, which hold over a third of the votes on the IMFs board, have rallied around a single contender: Frances finance minister, Christine Lagarde.原国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁多米尼克斯特劳斯-卡恩目前因面临性侵犯指控留监候审。从正式角度讲，该组织寻找新老板来接替卡恩的工作才刚刚开始。IMF的成员国政府要到6月10日才会提名候选人，最后候选人名单将随后出炉。但实际上，这场角逐看似已近尾声，因为拥有IMF三分之一以上投票权的欧洲国家都力挺一个竞争者：法国财政部长克里斯蒂娜拉加德。In contrast, emerging economies, which have long argued that the fund should have a non-European boss, have so far conspicuously failed to fix on an alternative candidate. The Americans, kingmakers in this contest, have said little in public but in private seem happy with Ms Lagarde, not least because they hope to keep both the deputys job at the fund and the presidency of the World Bank. Barring embarrassments, one French politician is likely to succeed another.恰恰相反的是，新兴经济体一直嚷嚷着该组织应该推选一位非欧洲籍的总裁，但很明显的是，他们至今未能物色到其他候选人。美国人能够决定该职位最后花落谁家，虽然他们在公开场合三缄其口，但私底下很乐意拉加德当选，其中一个重要原因就是：他们希望继续由美国人担任IMF第一副总裁和世界银行行长（作为平衡，这两大国际金融组织的一把手不会都来自同一国家）。而且，让法国人接替法国人，也能避免尴尬。Ms Lagarde has many strengths. She has been a steady and successful finance minister, no mean feat with a boss as mercurial as Nicolas Sarkozy. A lawyer by profession, she lacks the technical background that the IMFs best bosses have had, but she is a superb communicator, a good negotiator and, by all accounts, an excellent manager. Given the circumstances of Mr. Strauss-Kahns departure, the fact that she is a woman is a bonus. It is not hard to see why even Western finance ministers with a low opinion of Mr. Sarkozy have rushed to anoint her.拉加德女士有许多优势。作为财政部长，她在法国多届内阁中职位稳定、成绩斐然，跟着尼古拉萨科齐这样善变的老板，这也着实不易了。拉加德女士本是律师出身，缺乏IMF历届最优秀总裁拥有的专业知识，但她交际能力出众、谈判能力一流，并且据说是一位卓越的管理者。考虑到斯特劳斯-卡恩先生离开的前因后果，身为女人这一事实又给她加了分。不难看出为什么即使对萨科齐评价不高的西方国家财长们也迫不及待地美化她。But it is still wrong. To begin with, the stitch-up, whereby the head of the IMF is a European and the head of the World Bank is an American, is a disgrace. International posts should be filled according to merit. And the growth of emerging economies makes it even less defensible.但这还是错误的。首先，这种IMF总裁来自欧洲、世界银行行长来自美国的搭配本身就不大光彩。国际组织的职位应该选贤任能，而新兴经济体的发展更让这种组合难以服众。Not exactly Europes moment还算不上欧洲时刻Moreover, the case against appointing a euro-zone finance minister as head of the IMF now is overwhelming. The main issue facing the fund is the euro zone. The fund is supposed to be an impartial arbiter of good economic policy. It is the only organisation likely to force a rethink of the euro zones failed strategy towards Greece, Ireland and Portugal. There were already fears that Mr. Strauss-Kahns presidential ambitions led the fund to be too soft on Europe. Ms Lagarde has played a central role in forming the euro zones response to its debt crisis, and whatever her private views, she has a public record of defending the indefensible. Staggeringly, some Europeans have tried to argue that only one of their own can understand their continents complex politics; imagine the laughter if somebody had made the same argument for Argentinas finance minister in the 1980s or Thailands in 1997.而且，反对任命一名欧元区国家财长出任IMF总裁的理由也是极其充分的。欧元区是该组织面临的主要问题。IMF本身就应该是一个不偏不倚的仲裁者，来评判经济政策得当与否。它是唯一一个可能促使大家重新思考欧元区在希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙问题上所采取的失败战略的组织。已经有人担心，斯特劳斯-卡恩先生因为想要竞选法国总统，从而导致IMF对欧洲的态度过于软弱。拉加德女士在欧元区应对债务危机过程中起了关键作用，不论她个人持何种观点，大家都会记得她曾努力捍卫很难捍卫的欧元区。令人惊讶的是，一些欧洲人试图争辩说，只有欧洲人才能了解这块大陆复杂的政治；试想，如果有人在20世纪80年代和1997年分别为阿根廷和泰国财长如此拉票，将会怎样贻笑大方。Besides, there are people who could do the job well who do not happen to be euro-zone finance ministers. Stanley Fischer, the governor of Israels central bank and former number two at the IMF, has vast experience of international economics and financial crises. Agustn Carstens, head of Mexicos central bank and also a former official at the fund, is another safe pair of hands. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapores finance minister and head of the IMFs policy advisory committee, is widely admired for his technical and political skills. Among central banker types, Mark Carney (currently at the Bank of Canada) and Arminio Fraga (formerly president of Brazils outfit) have stood out. Admittedly, none of these men is perfect: Mr. Fischer, for instance, is too old under existing rules and had a patchy record as deputy head of the fund. But none of them is as compromised as Ms Lagarde.并且，有些能胜任该职位的人碰巧不是欧元区国家财长。以色列中央银行行长、原IMF第一副总裁斯坦利菲舍尔熟谙国际经济学之道，处理金融危机的经验丰富；曾在IMF任职的墨西哥中央银行行长奥古斯丁卡斯滕斯也是合适人选；新加坡财政部长、IMF政策咨询委员会主席尚达曼因其卓越的专业知识和娴熟的政治技巧而广受赞誉；现任加拿大央行行长马克卡尼和原巴西央行行长阿米尼奥弗拉加则是各国央行行长中的佼佼者。我们得承认这些人选都不完美：例如，在现行规定下，菲舍尔先生年事过高，而且在担任IMF第一副总裁期间表现时好时坏。但是，任何一个都比拉加德女士要强。It is still not too late