中小企业板论文：中小企业板会计盈余、现金流量与股票价格的相关性研究.doc

中小企业板论文：中小企业板会计盈余、现金流量与股票价格的相关性研究【中文摘要】会计信息与股票价格的相关性是资本市场会计研究的主要内容之一,它不仅开拓了会计学的研究领域,而且推动了会计研究方法的创新。自1968年Ball & Brown发表会计收益数据的经验评价开创实证会计研究开始,关于会计信息有用性的研究便成为实证会计研究的焦点。目前中小企业已经占据了我国国民经济的主要地位,中小企业板的建立为中小企业提供了的融资渠道,它是创业板的前奏,为创业板的建立和进一步完善提供了丰富的经验,中小企业板与主板在法律环境、投资者目标定位、未来发展趋势等方面存在不同,中小企业板所肩负的历史使命必将使得它在未来的制度创新中显示出蓬勃生机。中小企业板会计信息价值相关性的研究有着重要的理论和实践意义,首先,这一研究将进一步丰富我国的实证会计理论研究；其次,会计信息价值相关性是衡量资本市场有效性的重要因素之一,研究结果将为衡量中小企业板有效性提供重要依据,为该板投资者的投资提供决策依据。但由于该板创立时间较短,目前会计理论界关于该板的研究甚少,中小企业板会计信息与股票价格相关性的研究几乎处于空白。理论研究的缺失不论是对我国资本市场会计研究还是对中小企业板上市公司的投资者而言都是一大缺憾,因而中小企业板的会计研究亟待进行。本文主要探究中小企业板上市公司会计信息与股票价格的相关性,以期能够为今后中小企业板会计理论研究做出有益的探索。本文的研究建立在Feltham-Ohlson模型上,选取深交所中小企业板上市公司数据,通过理论和实证分析相结合的方法展开研究。本文具体由四部分构成,各部分的主要内容如下：第一章,介绍会计盈余、现金流量与股票价格相关性研究的、意义与,进行国内外研究综述,提出本文的研究思路与方法,指出本文研究的创新与不足；第二章,首先介绍了中小企业板的特征和制度保障,这是本研究课题的环境背景,接着提出会计信息与股票价格相关性的理论前提,然后从信息观、计价观和契约观的维度阐释会计盈余、现金流量对股票价格的信息作用机理,分析了会计信息与股票价格的作用路径；第三章,介绍了本文的研究假设与变量设计,进行样本和数据的选取和相应处理,接着提出本文所需模型,进行基于相对关联和增量关联研究的实证检验,最后对检验结果进行分析并最终得出实证结论；第四章,针对研究结论提出建议和展望,结合实证结果提出进一步加强中小企业板会计信息价值相关性的建议,并对如何逐步改进和完善今后该领域的会计研究进行展望。本文的创新及特色在于：首先,目前对该板会计信息价值相关性的研究多是从净资产、会计盈余、经营现金流量的角度展开研究,本文考虑到中小企业板的特殊性,在目前研究的基础上,将自由现金流量和公司规模作为拓展变量加入到实证研究中来,共同验证市场的会计信息价值相关性；其次,本文通过深入分析中小企业板的特征,选择Feltham-Ohlson模型,并对该模型进行拓展,采用相对关联和增量关联的方法对该板上市公司会计信息价值相关性进行验证；再次,选取了2007年-2009年的年报数据,这三年的数据恰好可以描绘出我国中小企业板上市公司在金融危机爆发前、爆发中以及爆发后的综合财务面貌,因而基于这三年数据的实证研究结果将为特殊经济环境下中小企业板上市公司会计信息价值相关性研究提供有利的支持。【英文摘要】The relevance of accounting information associated with the stock price is one of the main content of the capital market researchs in Accounting, which not only openes up the field of accounting research, but promotes innovations in accounting research methods. Since 1968, when Ball & Brown published “An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers “ to create the beginning of Positive Accounting Research, the study of the usefulness of accounting information has become the focus of empirical accounting research.Precently SME has occupied the main part of the national economy, with more financing channels and methods provided by the SME board. The SME board is a prelude to the GEM, providing wealthy experiences for it, with differences from the major board in the legal environment, targeted investors and the future development trend, so the SME board is bound to show vitality because of its historical mission in the future innovations. The research of value relevance of accounting information on the SME board has important theoretical and practical significance, firstly it will enrich empirical study of accounting theory; Secondly, as the value relevance of accounting information is one of the important factors measureing the effectiveness of the capital market,the study can provide an important basis for the effectiveness of the SME board meanwhile providing important basis for investors.However, as the board established at a short time, with little accounting researches on the board, the study of the correlations between accounting information and stock price is nearly blank, thus it is a major shortcoming not only for the accounting research but for investors in the SME boards,so it is urgent for accounting research in this board. This paper tries to explore the relevance of accounting information and stock prices in the SME board, wishing to make a useful exploration of future theoretical research.This paper bases on the Feltham-Ohlson model, selects 2007-2009 annual data of listed companies in SME board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, using the method combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to explore the explanatory power of accounting earnings and cash flow for stock prices to find internal correlations and recently changes of them. This concrete consists of four parts, the main contents of each parts are as follows:The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the correlation of accounting earnings,cash flows and stock prices, reviews the relevant literatures at home and abroad, again to put forward ideas to this research and writing methods, and finally the lacks and innovations of this study. The second chapter firstly describes the characteristics of the SME board and its security systems, which is the background of this research,then proposes the theoretical premise of the correlation of accounting information associated with the stock price,then analyzes the mechanism of accounting information from the information view,pricing view and the contract view and the path in-depth.The third chapter describes the assumptions and variables, put forward the sample, data corresponding processing requirements, and model based on the relative relevance and incremental-based association study of the empirical test, and finally draw empirical conclusions on the analysis of the test results. The forth chapter is the recommendations and prospects, proposing how to further strengthen the value relevance of accounting information on the SME board and to gradually improve future researchs.Innovations and features are:Firstly, as the present study on the value relevance of accounting information is more than from the net assets, earnings, operating cash flow points, this paper use free cash flow and size as variables to expand the empirical study to jointly verify the value relevance of accounting information based on which considering the special nature of the SME board; Secondly, based on the SME board, this paper selects the F-O model, expands it to verify the value relevance of accounting information using the relevant and incremental research methods;Thirdly,selecting datas from the 2007-2009 annual financial reports of the listed companies, which just can depict the consolidated financial outlook in the SME board in China before the financial crisis, after the outbreak and the outbreak.So the empirical resear