格16瞿雅茹资产评估作业(英).doc

MSc Portfolio: Distance LearningProperty AppraisalASSIGNMENT: PORTFOLIO PROJECTSTUDENT: Qu Yaru Student ID:000905334ASSESSMENT CRITERIA:%MARKBackground data:Analysis and discussion:Recommendations and conclusions:Structure and presentation:203030 20Total100CHECKLIST OF SPECIFIC ATTRIBUTESQuality of analysis: Excellent Good Room for Improvement FairClarity of argument: ExcellentGood Room for Improvement FairStructure of assignment: ExcellentGood Room for Improvement FairPresentation: Excellent Good Room for Improvement FairASSESSORS COMMENTS/FEEDBACK:Please discuss any queries with your tutor ASSESSOR:DATE:Study of a Real Estate Company Portfolio - A Case Study of Evergrande在作业中明确说明了，我们作业的主题是资产组合分析及其对公司前景的影响，站在投资者的角度分析公司资产和资产组合以后，建议投资者是否需要购买公司股票或资产等作为本课程，还是需要数据计算等内容，而非仅仅是干巴巴的文字描述参考文献的格式需要修改格式很差，标题、专有词语中实词首字母必须大写。注意中英文标题符号的差异！需要较大调整或重写建议：1.按照我写的作业提示PPT中的主要内容分成6部分说明2.参阅你班其他同学的较好作业看一下1. BackgroundEvergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., referred to as Evergrande Group, located in Guangzhou, China, is a livelihood residential, cultural tourism, FMCG, agriculture, dairy industry and sport as one of the Enterprise Group. Total assets of over 460 billion, 80,000 employees. 2014 annual sales of 100.4 billion; seven months of 2015 sales of 90 billion, 11.9 billion tax. Forbes Chinese network announced strong 2015 global enterprises list in 2000, Evergrande ranked 500th.Corporate strategic layout of Evergrande is: the high-end series mainly focus on the layout of the country second and third tier cities, to achieve fast and efficient business expansion. Among them, the high-end and midrange series: residential real estate is for the current mainstream home crowd in to high-income earners. The series is complete and perfect and beautiful environment of a large residential area. Tourism Series: positioned as a living, business and tourism as one of the resort project. High-end series: high-end luxury project location for the city, for the local high-income groups.Strategic orientation on the product series:（1） Listed company as a well-funded, the ability and the needs of enterprise business can grow rapidly;（2） Second and third tier cities become in recent years the expansion of the regional real estate market remains relatively the high-end positioning helps to maintain the second and third tier cities in the enterprise market competitiveness.（3） Standardization of operations in order to achieve replication, maintain speed and cost, in order to get to the scale and brand to enhance the regional impact of the project in the second and third tier cities, with the quality and relatively low-cost strategy to ensure that the high-end status.（4） Eventually forming product series, the difference between the series of products is mainly reflected in the high degree of replication positioning and location above product few bright spots, rarely innovative.2The targetEvergrandes goal is to achieve its full-year sales ranking Chinese housing prices in the first legion. Its insistence on innovation-driven, focus on the implementation of brand strategy, create international brand.Some housing prices in order to achieve the set goal, the target set by Hengda, always used to override.In addition to the real estate industry, diversified development Hengda in 2015, the same rapid, Hengda football industry and the health industry have achieved a listing in 2015. In addition, Hengda cultural tourism also has distribution in Guangdong, Chongqing, Tianjin and other provinces and cities nationwide.3Hengda Group Financial Statement AnalysisIn order to better horizontal analysis, I selected a few shares in listed companies in real estate. They are: R & F Group, offshore real estate, Hengda Real Estate.(A) Long-term solvency(1) Asset-liability ratio = total liabilities / total assetsAsset-liability ratio indicates how much of the companys total assets was raised through debt, the index is a comprehensive index evaluation company debt levels. The following companies for the past five years, the balance ratio chart:Table 1Assets and liabilities2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group97%71.3%79.6%80.2%86.1%R & F 77%72.8%74.5%74.4%73.2%COSCO58%61.1%62.3%66.5%68.1%You can see from the chart, Hengda Groups gearing ratio is high, but you can see in the assets than liabilities listed in the decrease can be seen Hengda Group has developed rapidly, it is worth the investment!Lets asset-liability ratio of Evergrande horizontal and vertical comparison:97% from 11 years to 15 years 86.10% overall tends to a healthy stage, reduced by 11 percentage points.Compared with the R & F Group and COSCO, Hengda gearing ratio decreased more.Summary: The current international generally believed, asset-liability ratio maintained at 60% better! As can be seen from Figure Hengda to asset-liability ratio is, the need to strengthen solvency.(2) the equity ratio = Total liabilities / shareholders equity 100%Equity ratio refers to total liabilities ratio of owners equity account, reflecting the owners equity level of protection of the interests of creditors. According to these companies report results for each company five years equity ratio chart:Table 2Equity ratio2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group3253%245.23%390.60%406.18%439.89%R & F329%268.15%292.25%291.23%273.61%COSCO137%159.20%165.96%198.45%210.10%As can be seen from the table, Hengda equity ratio has been declining, indicating that the increase in solvency. However, compared with R & F Group and COSCO, still maintains a high ratio, solvency needs to be strengthened in order to reduce the risk of creditors.(B) Analysis of operating capacity(1). Accounts receivable turnover ratio (times) = Operating income / average accounts receivable balanceAccounts receivable turnover ratio is the ratio of net income to the average credit period of time business accounts receivable, accounts receivable turnover ratio is the cash flow rate supplement, he is a measure of a business accounts receivable turnover rate and management efficiency. Table 3:Table 3Accounts receivable turnover (times)2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group113128764511R & F6711118COSCO113344108117From above, this figure can be drawn Hengda Groups accounts receivable turnover ratio (times) in 2011 from a high level to a low level in 2015, we can see that the low payment capacity from accounts receivable, very easy to produce bad debt losses. Have a huge impact on the flow of funds, but also to decrease short-term solvency is not conducive to business activities.(2) Average total, total asset turnover ratio (times) = Operating income / assetsTotal asset turnover study is an important indicator of corporate assets on operating efficiency, first look at the following chart。Table 4Total asset turnover ratio (times) = operating income / Average total assets2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group0.1480.1260.0910.4380.217R & F0.2730.2790.2740.3180.315COSCO0.1520.150.1420.1480.18As can be seen from Table 4, Hengda Groups total turnover (times) increased significantly, indicating that Hengda Group revenue increased steadily.( c) Profitability analysis（1）The main business net profit margin = net profit main business income 100%Main business profit rate is an important indicator reflecting the profitability of the business, the higher the index, indicating the ability of enterprises to obtain income from the main business profit stronger. The indicator reflects the most basic business activities of profitability, not big enough OPE will not be able to form the final profits.Table 52011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group61.9%23.5%21.9%30.2%31.9%R & F55.6%35.2%29.5%36.8%37.8%COSCO54.5%38.4%33.2%30.8%27.8%As can be seen from Table 5, Hengda Group in 2011, the highest profitability, but from 2012 to 2011, Hengda Group profit fell, but from 2014 to 2015, the main business profit rate, but still need cost control and expense management.（2） Return on total assets = Net profit / Average total assets * 100%Total assets of all assets profit margin indicates the level obtain benefits, fully reflect the profitability and input-output state of the business. Through in-depth analysis of the indicators, the parties face can enhance enterprise asset management concerns, encourage enterprises to improve the level of unit income assets. The following are some of the companys total assets profit margin.Table 62011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group9.17%2.97%1.99%13.21%6.89%R & F15.10%10%8.09%11.73%12.13%COSCO8.30%5.76%4.71%4.55%5.01%As can be seen from Table 6, from 2011 to 2013, Hengda Groups total assets declining margins, but from 2013 to 2015 as a whole that you rise to an upward trend.（3）. ROE = net profit / average net assets * 100%ROE is the ratio of net income to average net assets, she is a measure of the overall efficiency of basic indicators of investor capital and dynamic capability Capital of capital operation.Table 72011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group9.17%2.97%1.99%13.21%6.89%R & F15.10%10%8.09%11.73%12.13%COSCO8.30%5.76%4.71%4.55%5.01%It can be drawn from Table 7: Hengda Group from 11 to 15 years ROE at a relatively stable rate. In contrast, R & F Group ROE better, indicating strong profitability in Hengda Group. But compared to Hengda Group and COSCO, from the end of 12, ROE better with COSCO.（4）The main business cost rate = main business cost / main business income * 100%Main business cost rate this indicator is the main business costs as a percentage of the main business income, the higher the ratio, the more instructions the lower operating profit, made it clear that the cost is high, the business very profitable. Lets look at Table 8:Table 82011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group61.43%58.90%65.99%70.82%64.94%R & F62.46%66.42%68.40%62.29%58.29%COSCO66.83%56.53%69.89%69.94%68.55%(D) Development prospects（1） Business growth rate = (current business revenue - on of business revenue) / on of business revenue * 100%Table 92011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group59.67%13.89%58.66%700.34%-30.33%R & F45.01%3.98%18.47%35.45%11.07%COSCO55.04%12.82%36.01%55.49%45.01%As can be seen from Table 9, the period from 2011 to 2014, Hengda Group sales growth rate is greater than zero, especially in 2014, reaching 700%, but in 2015, has become a -30.33%. Compared with the other two companies, Hengda still volatile.（2） Net asset growth = (closing net assets - beginning of period net assets) / opening net assets * 100%The net asset growth is the company closing net assets at the period end with the removal of the difference between the ratio of net assets to total assets, reflecting the companys net asset growth.Table 102011年2012年2013年2014年2015年Hengda Group225.45%1195.64%55.67%60.44%32.90%R & F53.09%18.43%13.24%16.87%13.84%COSCO348.84%5.24%40.32%32.96%13.51%As can be seen from Table 10, the period from 2011 to 2015, Hengda net assets decline in growth, but compared to the same industry, but, it is still in the lead.Real estate investment decision-making and control of the risks of having a complex, which is characterized by: a large amount of capital investment, long payback period, high-risk, good return. These features are specific resources used by real estate investment companies need to develop - land scarcity, particularity of immovable property and real estate regional market for this commodity caused. Too many real estate investment uncertainty, risk, from the macro analysis is realized risk, purchasing power risk, operational risk, social risk, risk of natural disasters; Analysis by factors affect investment income cash flow risk, the risk of future cash flow from operations capital value risk, opportunity cost risk, time risk and the risk of holding period. High risk is generally associated with high-yield, under other conditions remain unchanged, the higher the risk, the higher the required return on investment, it is a high rate of return on real estate investments become the driving force people into the real estate market.4The problems foundUsing the traditional approach to the analysis of the real estate portfolio, there are a lot of flaws and shortcomings, mainly reflected in the following aspects:（1） Real estate investment division of the object is too simple. Traditional methods only the real estate investments are divided into portions and aggressive defense part, can not objectively reflect the actual situation in real estate investment and portfolio optimization. In fact, real estate investments include not only the many types of residential, office, commercial and industrial property and other property, including the land development, comprehensive transformation of the old city and other different business models. Optimal combination of real estate investment is not only a combination of different types, but also including reasonable combination of different operating modes.（2） Lack of risk quantitative analysis. Traditional methods of risk analysis is only qualitative, not quantitative analysis, investment decision making subjectivity, it is not conducive to business decision-making to the scientific direction.（3） The ratio of investment to determine the lack of optimization process. The optimal combination of traditional decision-making method is only by virtue of experience or intuitive judgments, and to determine the type of investment and the scale of investment under the investment plan, although it has a certain rationality, but could not reach the minimum risk portfolio of the best investment objectives.5. DiscussionBy using modern portfolio theory, the relevant models to the real estate investment portfolio optimization analysis.Establish the optimal combination investment model aims to introduce the concept of risk, the risk-benefit as intermediate variables, to determine the proportion of investment in real estate investment optimal combination of each item, so that the real estate business to achieve maximum return on investment objectives. For this purpose, special make the following assumptions:（1） Investment projects are complete feasibility study report or investment plans that each type of investment or business model according to the investment environment, investment policies and urban planning requirements were fully demonstrated the economic feasibility of the project, technical feasibility think They are reasonable.（2） Each type of investment and business model may be able to determine their yield and the yield of each size to achieve a probability based on market survey and forecast data.（3） In the real estate business is determined according to the type of investment or investment business model based on optimized combination fully consider the impact of enterprise financial resources, financial resources and may determine the optimal combination within the range.（4） Real estate investments are risk-averse companies and the pursuit of maximum benefit, that are considered desirable investment portfolio optimization based on the rate of return and risk.Real estate investment optimal combination of the following three objectives:（1） At a certain level of expected return, through a combination of optimized real estate investment, real estate companies will undertake a minimum of investment risk;（2） At a certain level of risk, through the optimal combination of investing in real estate, real estate companies will get the maximum expected return;（3） In the case of the expected benefits and risks are not determined by the risk of real estate investment optimal combination of expected return and the real estate enterprises undertaken to achieve the best level.Through the above discussion, we can establish the following investment optimal combination of model: Pursuit of optimal combination investment model to maximize profits; Seek to minimize the risk of investment optimal combination model; Pursue the best risk-return portfolio model.6. ConclusionAbout Hengda Groups financial statements through the analysis of its short-term liquidity and long-term solvency. Study the companys financial statements for the past five years of data, you can see Hengda Group liquidity ratio rising, indicating that short-term liquidity in the enhanced; and the long-term solvency Hengda Group analyzed, although their assets high debt ratio, but you can see the proportion of assets and liabilities is decreasing, you can see Hengda Group development is very block, it is worth the investment!Currently, the international generally believed, asset-liability ratio remained above 60% better! Through financial statement analysis, Hengda Groups gearing ratio is still relatively high, but also the need to strengthen solvency.By Hengda Groups equity ratio was analyzed, this ratio continued to decrease, indicating strong solvency. But compared with other listed real estate companies still maintain a very high proportion of solvency needs to be strengthened in order to reduce the risk of creditors.7The proposedHengda Group, as one of Chinas largest real estate companies, faced with