Risk Mgt Ms-1303-09-01.ppt

1 Intheworldofrisks themasterofriskistodistinguishthepasttomoderntimes Murphy slawisanadageinWesternculturethatbroadlystates Anythingthatcangowrongwillgowrong Introduction Madoff50billionUSDLoss Anythingthatcangowrongwillgowrong 2 Riskisaconceptthatdenotesthepreciseprobabilityofspecificeventualities Technically thenotionofriskisindependentfromthenotionofvalueand assuch eventualitiesmayhavebothbeneficialandadverseconsequences However ingeneralusagetheconventionistofocusonlyonpotentialnegativeimpacttosomecharacteristicofvaluethatmayarisefromafutureevent Alifewithoutriskwillbetooboring tomanyriskswouldmakealifetooshort Thebiggestriskinlifeisnottakingrisk WhatisRiskandRiskmanagement 3 Inthiscourse thenatureofriskandriskmanagementwillbeintroduced especiallyrisksincontextwithengineeringprojectsThisisacourseonhowcompaniesandprojectmanagersmakeuseoftheinsightsandtoolsofriskmanagement Thefocusisonhowcorporationsusetheinsightsandmodelstoimprovetheirprojectoperations toincreasethevalueoftheirprojectsintermsofsafety cost scheduleandquality ortocreatethefinancialflexibilitynecessarytoimplementtheircorestrategy WearealsogoingtodealwitharealinternationalprojectexecutedbyaChinesecompanyabroadanddiscusstheresultsinaclass roomworkshop CourseObjective 4 Therearemanytypesofriskmanagementgoingonindifferentpartsofaprojectoracompanyatthesametime ThemostfamiliarplaceofriskmanagementisEngineering procurementandConstruction ButmanyotherpartsoftheCompanyareinvolvedinriskmanagement Themarketingdepartmentdesignstypesofcontractsforcustomersthatsharerisk Businessunitmanagersevaluateprojectswithdifferentriskcharacteristics anddecideonwaystoalterprojectssoastominimizeriskwithoutsacrificingreturn Thetax legalandaccountingdepartmentsareconcernedwithrisk withhedgingandwiththecorporategovernanceissues CourseObjective 5 Atthehighestlevelofthecompany keyquestionsaboutthefirm sstrategyanditsabilitytofunditsoperationsmustbeansweredwithaneyeontherisksofeachalternativeandstrategicdecisionsthatcansecurethegreatestvalueforshareholders Eachofthesedifferentriskmanagementactivitiesfocusesondifferentaspectsofriskmanagement TheproblembeforeacontractmanagerisnotthesameproblemthatisbeforetheSubcontractor CourseObjective 6 TopicOutlineThecoursewillbeorganizedaccordingtothefollowingoutlineoftopics Duetotheshortnatureofthecourse thedepthintowhicheachisexploredwillvarygreatly However theoutlineisveryusefulfororganizingthethinkingabouttheplaceofriskmanagementinthefirm sbusiness TheRoleofRiskManagement1 HowCompaniesManageRisk2 HowtheMarketforRiskisOrganized3 WhyManageRiskTheToolsofRiskManagement4 MeasuringRisk5 RiskBreakdownStructure6 RiskMapping 7 TopicOutlineScope applicationanddefinitions1 1Scope1 2Application1 3DefinitionsRiskmanagementrequirements2 1Purpose2 2Riskmanagementpolicy2 3Planningandresourcing2 3 1Managementcommitment2 3 2Responsibilityandauthority2 3 3Resources2 4Implementationprogram2 5Managementreview 8 TopicOutlineRiskmanagementoverview3 1General3 2Mainelementsa Establishthecontextb Identifyrisksc Analyzerisksd Evaluateriskse Treatrisksf Monitorandreviewg Communicateandconsult 9 TopicOutlineRiskmanagementprocess4 1Establishthecontext4 1 1General4 1 2Establishthestrategiccontext4 1 3Establishtheorganizationalcontext4 1 4Establishtheriskmanagementcontext4 1 5Developriskevaluationcriteria4 1 6Definethestructure4 2Riskidentification4 2 1General4 2 2Whatcanhappen4 2 3Howandwhyitcanhappen4 2 4Toolsandtechniques 10 TopicOutlineRiskmanagementprocess4 3Riskanalysis4 3 1General4 3 2Determineexistingcontrols4 3 3Consequencesandlikelihood4 3 4Typesofanalysisa Qualitativeanalysisb Semi quantitative analysisc Quantitativeanalysis4 3 5Sensitivityanalysis4 4Riskevaluation 11 TopicOutlineRiskmanagementprocess4 5Risktreatment4 5 1Identifyingoptionsforrisktreatment4 5 2Assessingrisktreatmentoptions4 5 3Preparingtreatmentplans4 5 4Implementingtreatmentplans4 6Monitoringandreview4 7Communicationandconsultation 12 PrerequisitesandReferencesKnowledgeofEnglishandProjectManagementrelatedSubjectsPMBOK2004 Chapter11AS NZS2004 FirstinternationalstandardsonRiskmanagementISO31000 2009CaseStudy RiskManagementGuidelineforSinopecEngineeringCaseStudy AnalysisofInternationalEPCProjectinRabighSaudiArabia MSI SinopecEngineering 13 CourseFormatThecoursewillbetaughtwithamixtureoflecturespresentingspecifictoolsandoutlinesofprojectriskproblemsandcasediscussionsinwhichstudentsattempttoapplythetoolsandconcepts Thefirstsegmentwillbealecturepresentationwithplentyoftimeforquestions discussionandinteraction Thecourseisofferedona100scorePass Failbasis Thesecondsegmentofeachmeetingwillbecasediscussion Classparticipationisobviouslycritical Apassinggra