漂亮的紫色背景条纹PPT模板.ppt

INDIA SFUTURE 29January2007 RBRoyChoudhuryMemoriallectureMumbai 资料PPT中国PPT资源网收集提供 版权归原作者所有 Eventhoughtheworldhasjustdiscoveredit theIndiagrowthstoryisnotnew Ithasbeengoingonfor25yearsold WhatistheIndiastory 1 RisingGDPgrowth averageannualGDPgrowth1900 19501 01950 19803 51980 20026 02002 20068 0Sources 1900 1990 AngusMaddison 1995 MonitoringtheWorldEconomy 1990 2000 CensusofIndia 2001 2000 2005FinanceMinistry IndiaStory 2 Populationgrowthisslowing averageannualgrowth1901 19501 01951 19802 21981 19902 11991 20001 82001 20101 5Sources 1900 1990 AngusMaddison 1995 MonitoringtheWorldEconomy 1990 2000 CensusofIndia 2001 IndiaStory 1950171990522000652010 proj 80Source CensusofIndia 2001 3 Literacyisrising IndiaStory MillionPeople19808652000222202010 proj 32368Source TheConsumingClass NationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearch 2002 4 Middleclassisexploding IndiaStory 198046 200026 2010 proj 16 1 ofthepeoplehavebeencrossingpovertylineeachyearfor20years Equals 200million 5 Povertyisdeclining IndiaStory 6 Productivityisrising IndiaStory 30 to40 ofGDPgrowthisduetorisingproductivity US ppp 1980117820003051Source WorldBank 7 Percapitaincomegains IndiaStory 8 Indiaisnowthe4thlargesteconomy IndiaStory AnditwillcrossJapanbetween2012and2014tobecomethe3rdlargest THEINDIAMODELISUNIQUE DRIVERSOFGROWTH IndiaEastandS E AsiaDomesticExports DRIVERSOFGROWTH IndiaEastandS E AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturing DRIVERSOFGROWTH IndiaEastandS E AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturingConsumptionInvestment DRIVERSOFGROWTH IndiaEastandS E AsiaDomesticExportsServicesManufacturingConsumptionInvestmentHightech capitalLowtech labourintensiveindustryintensiveindustry IMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL DomesticledInsulationfromglobaldownturnsLessvolatility IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL ServicesledHaveweskippedtheindustrialrevolution Howdowetakepeoplefromfarmstocities IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL ConsumptionledPeoplefriendly Consumptionas ofGDPIndia64Europe58China42Lessinequality GINIINDEXIndia33U S41China45Brazil59TheworldneedsanotherbigconsumingeconomyaftertheU S ReasonsforSuccessIndia ssuccessismarketledwhereasChina sisstateinduced TheentrepreneurisatcentreoftheIndianmodel RiseofgloballycompetitiveIndiancompanies Reliance JetAirways Infosys Wipro Ranbaxy BharatForge TataMotors TCS Bharati ICICIandHDFCBanks Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion 1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion 1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment 125Fortune500companieshaveR DbasesinIndia Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion 1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment 125Fortune500companieshaveR DbasesinIndia 390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion 1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment 125Fortune500companieshaveR DbasesinIndia 390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia 2 badloansinIndianbanks vs 20 inChina Indiahasavibrantprivatespace 100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS 1billion 1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment 125Fortune500companieshaveR DbasesinIndia 390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia 80 creditgoestoprivatesector vs 10 inChina Butpublicspaceisaproblem Althoughwehavea Dynamicdemocracywithhonestelections Publicspaceisaproblem Althoughwehavea Dynamicdemocracy Free livelymediaandpress Publicspaceisaproblem Dynamicdemocracywith Free livelymediaandpressButthereis Poorgovernance Publicspaceisaproblem Dynamicdemocracy Free livelymediaandpress Poorgovernance Highpopulistsubsidies whichresultsinahighfiscaldeficit Publicspaceisaproblem Dynamicdemocracy Free livelymediaandpress Poorgovernance HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit Nomoneyforinfrastructure Publicspaceisaproblem Dynamicdemocracy Free livelymediaandpress Poorgovernance HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit Creakyinfrastructure Inefficientgovernmentcompanies Earlierwehadworldclassinstitutions buttheyarenowfailing BureaucracyJudiciaryPolice Contrastbetweenpublicandprivatespaceraisesthequestion IsIndiarisingdespitethestate Economygrowsatnightwhengovernmentisasleep WhatexplainsIndia seconomicsuccess Evenslowreformsaddup stategettingoutoftheway everygovernmenthasreformedsince1991 KeyReforms OpenedeconomytotradeandinvestmentDismantledcontrolsLoweredtariffsDroppedtaxratesBrokepublicsectormonopolies WhatexplainsIndia seconomicsuccess Evenslowreformsaddup stategettingoutoftheway2 Youngmindsareliberated MentalRevolution IwanttobeBilgay Raju ssecretofsuccess Banianisationofsociety 100cablechannelsfor 3 Hinglish WhatexplainsIndia seconomicsuccess Evenslowreformsaddup stategettingoutofthewayYoungmindsareliberated3 Indiahasfounditscompetitiveadvantageintheknowledgeeconomy LookingForward 7 8 economicgrowthDemocracywillnotpermitmorethan8 1 5 Populationgrowth 200021002005305020205800204016 800206637 000 Thismeansapercapitaincomeroughlyof onapppbasis Whywillgrowthcontinue Demographicdividend Demographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactors 25 yrs 0 25yrs DemographicSplit 1 5bn 1 1bn LaborForce LaborForcewilldoubleinthenext20years Demographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactors AgeDependency SavingsRate HighersavingsandinvestmentratewilltranslateintohigherGDPgrowth India sdemographicadvantagemeansthatitshighgrowthwillcontinuelongertermwhileChinawillslow 19808200022201032202050WestoftheKanpur Chennailine204050EastoftheKanpur Chennailine INDIAWILLGRADUALLYTURNMIDDLECLASS By2010Indiawillhaveworld slargestnumberofEnglishspeakers When300millionIndiansspeakawordinacertainway thatwillbethewaytospeakit Prof DavidCrystal CambridgeEncyclopediaoftheEnglishLanguage Whatcouldstoptheshow FiscaldeficitInfrastructureBadgovernanceNuclearwar REFORMSCHOOL Labour REFORMS