15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照.docx

空气污染 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气 Air pollution空气污染The big smoke雾都Britain needs to do more to clean up its dirty air 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气VISITING Oxford Street, a road teeming with tatty shops and overcrowded with people, is plainly a trial. Less plainly, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a noxious gas, have been found to be around three times higher there than the legal limit. In 2013 the annual mean concentration of NO2 on the street was one of the highest levels found anywhere in Europe.来到牛津街，你会看到街道两边布满了各式杂乱的商店，而道路上人满为患。行走在这条街上，很明显是个磨练。不为人觉察的是，这里有毒气体二氧化氮(NO2)测出含量超出法定水平的约三倍以上。年，这条街的NO2年均浓度是欧洲最高之一。British air is far cleaner than it was a few decades ago. Fewer people use coal-burning stoves; old industrial plants have been decommissioned. But since 2009 levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, coarse or fine particles that are linked to lung cancer and asthma, have fallen more slowly. The exact number of deaths caused by dirty air is unknown. But in 2010 a government advisory group estimated that removing man-made fine particulate matter from the atmosphere would increase life expectancy for those born in 2008 by an average of six months.英国的空气比几十年前干净多了。使用燃煤炉灶的人越来越少；老工业厂已经停产。但自2009年起，氧化氮、微粒物质、以及与肺癌和哮喘相关的粗、细颗粒含量的下降速度减慢了。因污浊空气所引发的死亡人数是未知的。但2010年，一个政府顾问组估算如果将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话，2008年的出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月。Much of the slowdown is the result of fumes from diesel cars, which were championed by successive governments because they use less fuel and thus produce less carbon dioxide than petrol cars. In 2001 only 14% of all cars ran on diesel; by 2013 the proportion had increased to 35%. (Greener “hybrid” and electric cars have increased ninefold since 2006, but account for just 0.5% of the entire fleet.) Second-hand cars are particularly noxious, but even newer ones have not been as clean as hoped. Many cars that belched out few pollutants in tests produced more when on the roads.下降速度放缓的大部分原因在于柴油汽车排放的尾气这为历任政府所支持，因为柴油汽车耗用更少的能源，比汽油汽车排放更少的二氧化碳。2001年，仅14%的汽车使用柴油。2013年，这个比例上涨到了35%。（更绿色的“混合动力”和电瓶车自2006年以来增加了九倍，但仅占汽车总量的0.5%。）二手汽车尤其有害，但新车也没所期望的那样清洁。很多车在污染物排放测试中排放量低，车在上路时却排放了更多。Climate change and geoengineering气候变化与地质工程学Fears of a bright planet地球发光，令人担心Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed为更好地利用工程学手段研究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of “geoengineering”. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experimentsusing seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath a large balloon 20km up in the sky.发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验就是用装有海水的喷雾器射出大量使云彩发光所需的相同大小的粒子，或者从升到距地面20公里处的大型气球下喷洒硫粒子。The aims are modest. The scientists hope to understand some of the processes on which these technologies depend, as a way of both gauging their feasibility (can you reliably make tiny puffs of sea salt brighten clouds?) and assessing their risks (how much damage to the ozone layer might a stratospheric haze do, and how might such damage be minimized?). The experiments would be far too small to have any climatic effects. The amount of sulphur put into the stratosphere by the experimental balloon would be 2% of what a passenger jet crossing the Atlantic emits in an hour.这样做的目标并不宏伟。科学家们希望能够了解这些技术所依托的一些过程，也是作为衡量其可行性（能否可靠使用微小的海盐粒子让云彩发光？）和评估其风险（附着在平流层的雾状物会给臭氧层造成多大危害，如何把危害降到最低？）的方式。这些实验对气候变化的影响微乎其微。实验所用的气球投入平流层的硫总量相当于横越大西洋的喷气式客一小时喷射气体总量的2%。Nonetheless, these experimentsand this whole line of researchare hugely controversial. Many scientists are skeptical about geoengineering and most greens are outraged. Opponents object to them for a range of reasons. Some are against the very idea of geoengineering and any experiments in the area, even those which pose no immediate risk to the environment. They abhor the hubris involved in trying to affect the mechanics of the climate and despair at the potential diversion of attention from controlling carbon emissions as the route to countering climate change. They find the idea of somepossibly manycountries having the power to change the climate for the whole planet a geopolitical nightmare. Even modest experiments in geoengineering, according to this logic, are the beginnings of a slippery slope, one that will engender a false sense of security and domesticate an idea that should have always remained outrageous.尽管如此，这些实验以及整个研究领域存在巨大争议。许多科学家怀疑地质工程学，多数绿党成员感到很气愤。反对的原因很多。一些人反对地质工程学这一学科和涉及该领域的实验，甚至对环境不会立即造成风险的实验也遭到了反对。他们讨厌尽力影响气候机制而产生的傲慢行为，并对应对气候变化过程中可能将注意力远离控制碳排放的行为感到绝望。他们发现，一些（也可能是许多）国家有能力改变全球气候的想法是一个地缘政治的梦魇。根据这一逻辑，即使是很小的地质工程实验也是大灾难的开端，会产生不真实的安全感，并滋生一种永远都令人气愤的想法。Yet caving in to this opposition would raise, rather than reduce, the dangers to the planet. Geoengineering is not an alternative to mitigating climate change by cutting carbon emissions, but it may be needed as a complement to it. Although pressure for cuts in carbon emissions through negotiations such as those currently taking place in Lima is yielding resultswitness the recent agreement by China and America on new reduction targetsit has so far been insufficient to the task, and emissions look set to rise for decades yet.然而，向这种反对声音投降会增加而非减少对地球造成的危险。通过减少碳排放来缓解气候变化，地质工程学并不是其备用方案，但可能是一种补充方案。尽管通过协商来解决减少碳排放问题的压力会带来好的结果（例如目前在利马召开的气候变化峰会见证了中美两国制定新的减排目标）,但是到目前为止，这么做是远远不够的，而且排放量还会在几十年里有所增加。Even if emissions do eventually start to fall, the cuts will take decades to have any effect so temperatures are likely to go on going up for some time. Although they have not soared in the past couple of decades as they did in the 1980s and 1990s, there is a fair chance that this year will tie with the hottest on record. The planet is not getting cooler and the pressures on the climate are unlikely to go away. It is therefore not too hard to imagine a world, decades hence, in which emissions are falling but temperatures are rising steeply and the ability to adapt to them has been stretched too far. An additional way to stabilize temperatures might then seem in order. Geoengineering offers that possibility.即使排放量最终真的会开始减少，也要在几十年之后才会见到成效，所以在一段时间内温度还是可能会上升的。尽管过去几十年温度不像上世纪八九十年代那样上升得那么厉害，但是今年很有可能追平过往的最高温度纪录。地球不会降温，气候带来的压力也不可能消失。所以不难想象，几十年后的世界，排放量减少，但是温度陡升，适应这样的环境无法做到。到那时，让温度稳定下来的额外方式似乎可能成形，而地质工程学就会实现这一目标提供可能。Knowledge can be dangerous; ignorance can be worse知识有危险，无知更危险。Research on a question of such gravity will have implications beyond its scientific results. But that is a reason to hold the scientists to high standards, not to duck the experiment entirely. If the research consists of safe, well-conceived experiments designed to improve scientific understanding of the processes involved; if it is conducted by people who openly discuss with the public the implications of their research; if it is funded by bodies that take the need for transparency and debate about the risks inherent in such research seriously: then it deserves to be approved.关于这一严重性问题的研究可能会带来科学以外的结果。但是这是让科学家保持高标准要求而不是完全回避实验的一个原因。如果研究是由安全的，构思缜密的，旨在增强对操作过程的科学理解的实验组成，如果做研究的人公开讨论过研究的意义如果为实验提供资金的机构能够认真对待研究本身的透明度和所造成风险的讨论，那样的话实验才能获得批准。There are all sorts of reasons why geoengineering may prove impossible, either politically or scientifically. It may be too dangerous to countenance, and the circumstances which might make it an appealing complement to cutting emissions may never arise. But to treat research into the subject as taboo on the basis that ignorance is a viable defense against folly would be a dangerous mistake.地质工程学不可能实现有各种各样的原因，有政治上的原因或者科学上的原因。地质工程的做法太危险，无法获得批准，而将其作为减少碳排放的补充方案也无法实现。但是如果忌讳这一研究领域，原因是无知可以切实地捍卫愚蠢的话，那这就是一个很危险的错误了。Government dithering has not helped. Part of the problem is that several departments are responsible for air pollution. This means nobody has taken a lead on it, complains Joan Walley, a Labour MP who chairs an environmental committee that has released a series of damning reports. And few politicians are keen to bash drivers. Talking to Britons about car ownership is “like talking to an American about hand guns”, quips one air-pollution scientist政府的犹豫不决并没有起到作用。部分问题在于有好几个部门都对空气污染负有责任。这意味着没有人愿意出头，琼沃利抱怨道，她是一名工党议员，也是一已发布一系列谴责报告的环境委员会的主席。很少有政客愿意解雇司机。一名空气污染科学界嘲讽说，跟英国人谈论汽车所有权就像“跟美国人谈论手枪一样。”Some improvements have been made. In 2008 a “low-emission zone” was created in London, which targets large vans and coaches. A smaller “ultra low-emission zone” has been proposed for 2020, which would charge all vehicles that are not of a certain standard 12.50 (18.80) a day. European Commission fines for breaching limits may encourage cities to do more. But other countries are more ambitious: 60 such zones exist in Germany, targeting private cars as well as vans. In December Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, announced that she wanted to ban diesel cars by 2020. Cities in Denmark and the Netherlands do more to boost cycling.成效还是有的。2008年，伦敦设置了一个“低排放区域”，针对的是大卡车和长途公车。已有提案建议在2020年建立一个更小的“超低排放区”，对没达到一定标准的所有车辆一天收费12.5英镑（18.8美元）。欧盟委员会对排烟限制的罚款措施可能促进城市采取进一步的行动。但是其他国家更加具备野心：德国有60个类似的区域，既针对卡车也针对私人汽车。12月，巴黎市长安娜伊达尔戈宣布她希望在2020年前淘汰柴油汽车。丹麦城市和挪威更侧重于鼓励骑自行车。When a thick “pea souper” smog enveloped London in 1952, causing the deaths of around 4,000 people in one week, the government was compelled to push through legislation to clean the air. Perhaps the largest problem now is that, with rare exceptions such as a Saharan dust smog that covered the capital in April 2014, this new pollution is invisible. But policy-makers should not lose sight of it.当1952年伦敦被浓浓的”淡黄色烟雾”笼罩时，在一周内造成了约4，000人死亡，政府不得不立法来净化空气。也许现在最大的问题是，除了像2014年4月笼罩首都的撒哈拉沙尘烟雾这样的少数情况外，这种新污染是看不见的。但是政策制定者们不能看不见这一点。Household wealth家庭财富The balance-sheet boom资产负债表的繁荣Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in 2015预计2015年家庭财富和债务将膨胀WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over, Britons are planning their budgets for the new year. Their decisions will be crucial for the economy. After paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the financial crisis, consumers are spending again. Yet wealth, like wages, remains lower than in 2007. A recovery in riches is an essential component of official forecasts for further growth.随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声，英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。金融危机之后几年，在偿还完资产负债表的债务后，消费又开始消费了。然而家庭财富和工资一样，仍然低于2007年。财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。When the financial crisis hit, wealth immediately suffered (unlike real wages, which hardly budged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). Household net worthie, assets minus debtsplummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall in housing wealth, which makes up just under half of all household assets. The hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housing wealth168,000 ($261,000) per householdremains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. Financial wealth, which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but is still down 4% on 2007. 当金融危机袭来时，财富首当其冲遭受损害（不像实际的工资，2008年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降）。家庭净值，也就是资产减去债务，在2008年骤然下降了12%，这是受了约占家庭资产一半的房屋财富下降13%的影响。这个窟窿至今还没有被填上：通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户168，000英镑（261，000）美元)保持在比危机前峰值低13%的水平。包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色，但仍比2007年低7%。As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. Savings jumped from around 7% of income pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. By 2013 the average household had 62,000 worth of debt, down 16% in real terms on 2007. Largely as a result of this frugality, household net worth, which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered about half its losses from the crisis.其结果就是，自2008年以来，家庭减少了债务。危机前约占收入7%的储蓄在2010年达到了11%。2013年，每家约有62，000镑的债务，扣除物价因素比2007年降低了16%。在这种俭省的影响下，2013年平均为320，000英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. Yet consumers have been spending more; since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis level. And forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britains fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, from 6.6% of income in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019.这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。然而消费者已经开始增加支出了，自2013年，储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。英国财政监督部门预算责任办公室(OBR)预测，储蓄将会进一步下降，从2014年收入的6.6%下降到2015年的5.4%，然后到2019年的4.8%。Several factors lie behind the reversal. Better employment prospects mean workers are less in need of rainy-day funds. They might also expect wage growth and want to borrow against that future income. But the most significant factor is recent house-price growth, which boosts homeowners wealth without them needing to save. House prices are up 17.5% on average since 2012 (30% in London) and the OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in 2015.这个逆转背后有几个因素。更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。他们也可以期望涨工资和预支工资。但最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长，这使房主的财富增长，不需要存钱了。自2012年以来，房价平均上涨了17.5%（伦敦上涨了30%）。OBR预测2015年可能会进一步上涨7.4%。It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to reach a record high of close to 170% before the crisis. The OBR now forecasts another balance-sheet boom, with debt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and reaching 184% of income by 2020.正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高，约是危机前的170%。OBR预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣，债务将在2017年超过危机前最高水平，在2020年达到收入的184%。This is troubling. If puffed-up house prices prove temporaryas in 2007high debt could leave households vulnerable and harm the financial system. Housing is illiquid, meaning that in a crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall rapidly. Even at current levels146% of incomethe Bank of England rightly frets about household debt, and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). The banks concern makes the OBRs forecast look either wrong or terrifying.这很棘手。如果和2007年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的，高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。住房是不动产，意味着在危机大甩卖中，房价可能骤跌。即使在现在水平收入的146%，英国央行担忧家庭债务也无可厚非，在10月份，央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的银行数（自那以后市场就稍微冷却了）。央行的担忧使得OBR的预测看起来要么错了，要么令人惊恐。In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a recent working paper by John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of Warwick University. The (recently revised) statistics fail to count pension payouts as running down savings. Adjust for this and the savings rate fell to -0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBR forecast is borne out. So much for an end to Christmas excess.另外，根据养老金顾问约翰拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德卡西的一篇工作论文所说，实际储蓄比数据显示的要低（最近修订的）数据没有将养老金支出当作储蓄流失算进去。对此进行调整后，2013年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%，如果OBR的预测成真，那这一负数将更大。这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。Astrophysics天体物理Dust to dust尘归尘，土归土A dramatic recent “discovery” in physics is looking rather dodgy近期，物理学中的一项戏剧性发现看上出非常模糊IN MARCH Chao-Lin Kuo, an astrophysicist at Stanford University, filmed himself knocking on the door of his colleague Andrei Linde. In the 1980s Dr Linde was one of several cosmologists who developed the theory of cosmic inflation, which holds that, in the first instants of its existence, the universe underwent a brief period of faster-than-light expansion.三月，斯坦福大学天体物理学家郭兆林拍下了自己造访同事Andrei Linde的一幕。上世纪80年代，Linden博士是少有的几位发展了宇宙膨胀论的宇宙学家。宇宙膨胀论认为，在其出现的那一瞬间，宇宙经历了一段超光速膨胀。Because inflation neatly cleaves several knotty problems in cosmology, many astrophysicists (though not all) subscribe to the theory. But direct, unambiguous evidence for it has been lacking. That was why Dr Kuo was visiting Dr Lindeto tell him that, thanks to the work of a telescope in Antarctica called BICEP-2, such evidence had now been found. After digesting the news, an emotional Dr Linde broke open a bottle of champagne to celebrate. The video has been viewed almost 3m times.因为膨胀论能完整解释宇宙学中的一些难题，许多天体物理学家都倾向于该理论。但是膨胀论仍缺乏直接、清晰的证据。这正是郭博士拜访Linde博士的原因在南极洲的BICEP-2天文望远镜发现了这种证据。收到消息后，Linde博士开了一瓶香槟来庆祝。这段视频已经被浏览了将近300万次。It now seems that Dr Kuo might have to make a new video, informing Dr Linde that he has wasted a bottle of bubbly. A paper just released by the team behind Planck, a European space telescope, casts serious doubt on the BICEP-2 result. What looked like a clear window back into the earliest moments of the universe might simply have been a faint glow from the diaphanous clouds of dust that exist between the stars.现在好像郭博士不得不再做一个视频，告诉Linde博士他浪费了一瓶香槟。新近有文献报道称，欧洲的普朗克天文望远镜拍到了对BICEP研究构成重大质疑的结果。回溯到宇宙最初时间，看上去似乎是清晰的窗户的图像可能仅仅是恒星间的透明灰云折射的淡淡光芒。The BICEP-2 team, led by John Kovac of Harvard University, had been studying the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB)a weak bath of radiation, left over from the Big Bang, that suffuses the universe. They were looking for evidence of primordial gravitational waves. These are ripples in the fabric of space, created, if the theory of inflation is correct, as the early universe was undergoing its post-creation growth spurt.由哈佛大学John Kovac领导的BICEP-2小组长期研究宇宙微波背景辐射，即一种由大爆炸产生的微弱辐射，弥漫在宇宙中。他们在找寻原始引力波的证据。如果膨胀论是正确的的话，那么这种由宇宙在初创后迸发过程中产生的波会存在于空间架构中。A dusty trail布满尘埃的小径Such waves should have left a distinctive, polarised mark imprinted upon the CMB. And, in a press conference on March 17th, that is exactly what the BICEP-2 team claimed to have found. It was the biggest news in physics since the discovery, in 2012, of the Higgs boson, and it was widely covered (including in The Economist). Not only would the BICEP result have confirmed the theory of inflation, but studying the gravitational waves it purported to have found would have given cosmologists a way to look back to the very earliest moments of the universe.这种波应该在宇宙微波辐射背景上留下了一个独特的、极化的记号。并且，在3月17日的新闻发布会上，BICEP-2小组宣布发现的，正是这个记号。这是从2012年希格斯玻色子发现以来，物理学界最大的新闻，并广为传播（包括经济学人）。BICEP的结果不仅确认了膨胀论这么简单，研究他们宣称所发现的引力波，将为宇宙学家提供一条回溯宇宙最开始的时刻的方法。But gravitational waves are not the only things that BICEP-2 might have picked up. The Milky Way is filled with thin clouds of interstellar dust which, under the influence of the galaxys magnetic field, scatter and polarise starl