经济的相关词汇和文章.doc

经济衰退：1. economic recession2. economic slump3. economic downturn4. U型经济衰退 U-shaped global recession请看中国日报的报道：The entire global economy will contract in a severe and protracted U-shaped global recession that started a year ago, Roubini said. A hard landing for emerging-market economies may also be at hand.鲁比尼说：“全球经济将陷入一场较为严重且长期持续的U型经济衰退，而这种衰退早在一年前就开始了。新兴市场经济体制的硬着陆也即将到来。”上面的报道中，U-shaped recession就是“U型衰退”。经济学领域常用U型、V型、W型、L型来描述经济衰退的形势。其中，U型衰退比V型衰退处于底部的时间较长，但不会出现W型衰退的反复。最可怕的是L型衰退，也就是说原有经济增长模式无法延续，而内需无法得到激发，导致国内生产能找不到出路，从而陷入长期低迷。目前经济界普遍认为此次经济衰退趋向于U型衰退。hard landing，“硬着陆”（采用强力的财政货币政策一次性在较短的时间内通过牺牲较多的国民收入将通胀率降到正常水平）soft landing“软着陆”（国民经济的运行经过一段过度扩张之后，平稳地回落到适度增长区间）。5. V-shaped recession6. W-shaped recession7. （经济的二次探底）double dip a recessionary relapse8. 希腊债务危机 Greeces debt crisis经济复苏：1. economic revival2. economic recovery3. green shoots经济复苏的迹象（early signs of economic recovery）请看相关报道：We have agreed that green shoots have emerged in the international economy and financial markets, said Zhu. However, the economic foundation is far from being sound, and the current situation remains severe, Zhu warned.朱光耀说：我们（中国和美国）一致认为在国际经济和金融市场上复苏的绿芽已经在萌生。但是，他指出，经济基础还很不稳固，目前的形势依然严峻。在经济领域中和颜色有关的形象表达还有很多，如red ink（赤字），black money（来源不正当而且没有向政府报税的钱），pink slip（解雇通知单），以及yellow pages（分类电话簿/黄页）等。4. 其他世界银行The World Bank 经济发展潜力 economic potential 扩大内需策略the strategy to expand domestic demand 抵抗全球经济衰退to combat the global economic slump. 点子公司consultancy company最新阅读材料（请仔细研读）：全球面临双底型经济衰退THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION IS RISING全球经济正开始从自大萧条(Great Depression)以来最严重的衰退和金融危机中见底回升。2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度，多数发达经济体经济萎缩的速度，与大萧条初期国内生产总值(GDP)直线下降的速度相当。因此，去年年底，政策上一直滞后的政策制定者终于开始动用手头的大多数武器。The global economy is starting to bottom out from the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 the rate at which most advanced economies were contracting was similar to the gross domestic product free-fall in the early stage of the Depression. Then, late last year, policymakers who had been behind the curve finally started to use most of the weapons in their arsenal.此番努力已见成效，经济活动直线下降的趋势有所缓解。目前来看，在经济前景方面有三个问题尚无定论：全球经济衰退将何时结束？经济复苏的轨迹如何？经济是否有再度恶化的风险？That effort worked and the free-fall of economic activity eased. There are three open questions now on the outlook. When will the global recession be over? What will be the shape of the economic recovery? Are there risks of a relapse?关于第一个问题，看起来全球经济将在2009年下半年见底回升。由于萌芽仍与莠草混杂丛生，许多发达经济体（美国、英国、西班牙、意大利及其它欧元区成员国）和一些新兴市场经济体（多数在欧洲）的经济衰退不会在年底之前正式终结。而在其它一些发达经济体（澳大利亚、德国、法国和日本）及多数新兴市场（中国、印度、巴西、以及亚洲及拉美其它地区），复苏已经开始。On the first question it looks like the global economy will bottom out in the second half of 2009. In many advanced economies (the US, UK, Spain, Italy and other eurozone members) and some emerging market economies (mostly in Europe) the recession will not be formally over before the end of the year, as green shoots are still mixed with weeds. In some other advanced economies (Australia, Germany, France and Japan) and most emerging markets (China, India, Brazil and other parts of Asia and Latin America) the recovery has already started.在第二个问题上，辩论的一方预计，经济将出现V型复苏，迅速恢复增长这也是经济界大多数人的共识；而另一方（例如我本人）则认为，最初几个季度，经济会在重新补充库存和产出从接近大萧条水平回升的拉动下快速增长，之后，经济将出现U型复苏，至少在几年内活力不足，增长低于趋势水平。On the second issue the debate is between those most of the economic consensus who expect a V-shaped recovery with a rapid return to growth and those like myself who believe it will be U-shaped, anaemic and below trend for at least a couple of years, after a couple of quarters of rapid growth driven by the restocking of inventories and a recovery of production from near Depression levels.说经济将出现疲弱的U型复苏，有以下几个理由。美国及其它地区的就业率仍在急剧下降到2010年，发达经济体的失业率将突破10%。这不仅对于需求和银行亏损来说是个坏消息，对于劳动者技能而言亦是如此劳动者技能是长期劳动生产率增长的一个关键因素。There are several arguments for a weak U-shaped recovery. Employment is still falling sharply in the US and elsewhere in advanced economies, unemployment will be above 10 per cent by 2010. This is bad news for demand and bank losses, but also for workers skills, a key factor behind long-term labour productivity growth.其次，本轮危机不仅是一场流动性危机，也是偿付能力危机，但由于金融机构的损失已经由整个社会承担，并被纳入了政府的资产负债表，真正的去杠杆化过程尚未开始。这将限制银行放贷、家庭消费和企业投资的能力。Second, this is a crisis of solvency, not just liquidity, but true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of financial institutions have been socialised and put on government balance sheets. This limits the ability of banks to lend, households to spend and companies to invest.第三，在经常账户赤字国家，消费者必须削减支出、增加储蓄，但由于房价和股价不断下跌，收入下降，就业市场日渐萎缩，债台高筑的消费者面临着财富大幅缩水的境地。Third, in countries running current account deficits, consumers need to cut spending and save much more, yet debt-burdened consumers face a wealth shock from falling home prices and stock markets and shrinking incomes and employment.第四，尽管得到了政策扶持，金融体系仍严重受损。影子银行业体系大部分业已消失，传统银行背负着数万亿美元的贷款及证券业务预期亏损，同时资本仍严重不足。Fourth, the financial system despite the policy support is still severely damaged. Most of the shadow banking system has disappeared, and traditional banks are saddled with trillions of dollars in expected losses on loans and securities while still being seriously undercapitalised.第五，由于债务和违约风险高企、增长率低下，以及企业利润面临持续的通缩压力，疲弱的盈利能力将抑制企业生产、雇佣员工和投资的意愿。Fifth, weak profitability owing to high debts and default risks, low growth and persistent deflationary pressures on corporate margins will constrain companies willingness to produce, hire workers and invest.第六，公共部门通过累积巨额财政赤字进行再杠杆化，有可能会挤占掉私营部门的支出复苏。此外，政策的刺激效用将在明年年初消失，要支撑经济持续增长，就需要进一步推升私人需求。Sixth, the releveraging of the public sector through its build-up of large fiscal deficits risks crowding out a recovery in private sector spending. The effects of the policy stimulus, moreover, will fizzle out by early next year, requiring greater private demand to support continued growth.第七，全球失衡状况有所改善，意味着美国等大肆挥霍的经济体的经常账户赤字，将使得那些过度储蓄国家（中国及其它新兴市场、德国和日本）的盈余收窄。但如果盈余国家国内需求的增长不够迅速，将导致全球增长复苏更加乏力。Seventh, the reduction of global imbalances implies that the current account deficits of profligate economies, such as the US, will narrow the surpluses of countries that over-save (China and other emerging markets, Germany and Japan). But if domestic demand does not grow fast enough in surplus countries, this will lead to a weaker recovery in global growth.目前，还有两点原因能够说明，为何出现双底W型衰退的可能性正逐渐加大。首先，大规模货币及财政宽松政策的退出战略会引发风险：无论政策制定者是否决定退出，都会遭到指责。如果他们马上认真对待高额财政赤字，提高税收，削减支出，消除过剩的流动性，他们会破坏复苏，将经济拖回到“滞缩”（stag-deflation，衰退和通缩交织在一起）状态。There are also now two reasons why there is a rising risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession. For a start, there are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing: policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they dont. If they take large fiscal deficits seriously and raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity soon, they would undermine recovery and tip the economy back into stag- deflation (recession and deflation).但如果政策制定者维持庞大的预算赤字，债券市场的“义务警察”（指在通胀担忧出现时通过出售债券推高债券收益率的投资者译者注）将对其予以惩罚。接下来，通胀预期将增强，长期政府债券收益率将上升，借款利率将急遽攀高，最终导致滞胀局面。But if they maintain large budget deficits, bond market vigilantes will punish policymakers. Then, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields would rise and borrowing rates will go up sharply, leading to stagflation.担心出现双底型衰退的另一个原因在于，目前石油、能源和食品价格的上涨速度，要快于经济基本面所支持的合理水平，而且，在追逐资产的过剩流动性及投机性需求的推动下，还可能进一步上涨。去年，每桶145美元的油价正是全球经济的引爆点，因为这给石油进口经济体造成了贸易负项，令它们可支配收入骤减。如果类似的投机行为推动油价迅速冲向每桶100美元，全球经济将无法承受另一次紧缩冲击。Another reason to fear a double-dip recession is that oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created negative terms of trade and a disposable income shock for oil importing economies. The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.总而言之，发达经济体的复苏很可能疲弱乏力，并低于趋势水平，全球经济面临遭遇双底型衰退的巨大风险。In summary, the recovery is likely to be anemic and below trend in advanced economies and there is a big risk of a double-dip recession.希腊债务危机恶化 银行流动性吃紧Concern over a potential liquidity shortage at Greeces private-sector banks fueled a sharp selloff in Greek debt and equity markets Thursday, suggesting that the European Unions efforts to defuse the crisis with a vague promise for an International Monetary Fund-backed rescue have all but failed.周四，由于市场担心希腊私营银行可能存在流动性短缺，希腊债市和股市大幅下挫。这说明，欧盟通过含糊承诺将在国际货币基金组织（IMF）支持下提供救援、以此化解危机的努力，差不多已经失败。Markets signaled fresh worries that Greek banks are having trouble meeting immediate funding needs, after the countrys top four banks on Wednesday asked Athens for access to an emergency government liquidity facility. Greeces banks have been widely viewed as one of the few bright spots in the countrys financial infrastructure.市场走势说明，投资者又在担心希腊银行业难以应付短期融资需求。周三，希腊四大银行请求雅典方面允许它们使用政府的一项应急流动性工具。希腊的银行被普遍视为该国金融体系中为数不多的几个亮点之一。This is clearly a sign that the Greek authorities have reached the end of the line and need to make a phone call to the IMF, BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note Thursday morning.巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师在周四上午的一份简报中表示，这明显说明，希腊当局已经走到穷途末路，需要给IMF打电话了。Greek bonds fell for the seventh straight session on Thursday and the Greeces benchmark stock index tumbled. The yield on Greeces 10-year bond, a reflection of both the countrys borrowing costs and the risk investors associate with its debt, hit its highest level since the introduction of the euro.周四，希腊债市连续第七个交易日走低，基准股指也大幅下跌。10年期希腊国债收益率达到了欧元问世以来的最高水平。这反映了希腊的借款成本，也反映了投资者眼中希腊债务的风险。More alarmingly, in a sign Greece may have difficulty finding money in the nearer term, investors drove the interest rate of the Greek two-year bond to 7.45% Thursday, 6.51 percentage points more than what Germany pays. That gap was 5.68 percentage points just a day earlier.更让人警醒的是，希腊更近期的融资可能会出现困难：两年期希腊国债收益率在周四已经达到7.45%，较德国国债收益率多出6.51个百分点。一天以前，这一息差仅为5.68个百分点。The euro slumped early in the day, though it rose after Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, said Greece wouldnt default.欧元在周四上午急跌，不过后来出现回升，原因是欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)表示希腊不会违约。The latest turmoil comes despite the EUs much-touted promise late last month to team with the IMF to intervene to save Greece from default if market financing is insufficient.欧盟上月下旬还信誓旦旦地承诺，如果希腊不能从市场获得足够融资，欧盟将同IMF一起出手救援，使之免于违约。Germany and France believed that the assurance would be enough to persuade jittery markets that the EU wouldnt allow Greece to default.德国和法国曾经认为这一保证将足以使不安的市场相信欧盟将不会允许希腊违约。Yet many investors expressed disappointment that the EU didnt offer a more detail on terms of the potential loans. Greeces equity and bond markets have been in a steady decline ever since.但欧盟未就其可能提供贷款的条件提供更多细节，许多投资者对此表示失望，希腊的股票和债券市场从那时到现在一直稳步下滑。In a sign of crisiss vicious-cycle nature, Thursdays bank worries helped sink the price of Greek government debt, which means the interest rate Greece must pay to attract borrowers was knocked higher. The yield on Greeces 10-year bond hit 7.38%. Bank stocks slumped 6% in Athens, dragging down the broader market 3%.危机已出现恶性循环的迹象，周四外界对银行的担忧导致希腊政府债券价格下滑，意味着希腊必须支付更高的利率以吸引借款人。希腊10年期债券的收益率达到7.38%。雅典的银行股暴跌6%，受其拖累，整体市场下跌3%。That reality may lead the EU to either offer Athens a bailout or force Greece to restructure its debt. The latter step would mean debt investors would have to accept painful losses on their investments, an outcome many in Europe have hoped to avoid for fear that it would undermine confidence in the euro.这一现实情况或许将致使欧盟要么向希腊提供紧急援助，要么迫使希腊进行债务重组。后者意味着债券投资者将不得不承受痛苦的损失。欧洲的许多人一直希望避免出现这一结果，担心这将损害人们对欧元的信心。ECB president Mr. Trichet offered a mix of verbal and concrete support Thursday for Greece and its banks. A Greek default is not an issue, he said at his monthly news conference. He also confirmed the ECB would maintain its relaxed collateral rules into next year, removing a source of uncertainty for Greek banks that rely heavily on government bonds as backing for cheap ECB loans.欧洲央行(ECB)行长特里谢(Trichet)周四向希腊及其银行提供了口头且实质性的支持。他在月度新闻发布会上说，希腊不会有违约的问题。他还证实欧洲央行在明年仍将保持其宽松的担保制度，这在一定程度上降低了希腊银行的不确定性。希腊银行高度依赖政府债券作为其获得欧洲央行低息贷款的后盾。Doubts over when the EU could come in to help, and at what terms, have hammered Greek bonds for days. April is a crucial month, with a sequence of Greek treasury bills maturing beginning next week, and then an 8 billion euro bond coming due the week after. Greek officials insist they have enough cash to pay those bills.外界对欧盟何时出手援助及以什么条件出手援助仍心存疑问，多日来这已对希腊债券造成重创。四月是一个关键的月份，一系列希腊短期国债从下周起开始陆续到期，再下周又有80亿欧元债券需要支付。希腊官员坚持称希腊有足够的现金支付这些债券。May is another matter. The biggest redemption that month comes on May 19, for 8.5 billion euros. Greece is all but certain to have to borrow or seek aid before then.五月则有另外的问题。5月19日有85亿欧元的债务到期，这是当月最大的额度。希腊在此之前几乎肯定将不得不寻求贷款或援助。Dispensing aid to Greece would require approval of all euro-zone leaders, which means German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reluctant to bail out a free-spending peer, has an effective veto. EU officials remain wide apart on what should trigger a bailout.向希腊提供援助需要得到所有欧元区领导人的批准，这意味着不愿对一个开支无度的国家伸出援手的德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)手中有一张有效的否决票。在应于何种情况下提供援助的问题上，欧盟官员分歧巨大。Despite the danger signs in the financial markets, many investors find it hard to believe that the EU will let Greece fail.尽管金融市场已出现危险的迹象，许多投资者仍觉得难以相信欧盟会允许希腊破产。亚洲的最新出口产品：经济复苏The global recession was made in America. The recovery is being made in Asia.本次全球经济衰退产生于美国。当前经济复苏正形成于亚洲。This weeks headlines well illustrate the striking contrasts: Thailand said its economy expanded at a 15.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and Taiwan said its grew at an 18% pace. But Germany said its economy didnt grow at all in the quarter, and the only reason it didnt contract was that German industry managed to boost exports to healthier economies.本周的一系列重大财经消息很好阐释了这种鲜明对比：泰国称其去年第四季度折合成年率的经济增长率为15.3%，台湾说它去年第四季度的这一经济增长率为18%。但德国却表示，该国经济去年第四季度丝毫没有增长，免于陷入衰退的唯一原因是德国增加了对其他较健康经济体的出口。The slump was very synchronized. The recovery? Increasingly less so, says Olivier Blanchard, chief International Monetary Fund economist.国际货币基金组织(IMF)的首席经济学家布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)说，各国经济在陷入萧条时表现得很同步，但它们的复苏进程呢？越来越不同步。Take a quick tour of the world economic recovery room. First stop is the rich, mature economies - the U.S., Europe and Japan. None are healthy yet, but the U.S. is doing better than the others.让我们快速浏览一下世界经济的复苏情况。先来看看那些富裕的成熟经济体美国、欧洲和日本。它们的经济都尚未步入健康轨道，不过美国经济的表现要好些。The U.S. economy is growing, helped by a mix of insulin (fiscal and monetary stimulus) and sugar (the eagerness of businesses to rebuild depleted inventories). By the standards of past recoveries, though, it isnt growing very fast.美国经济正在增长，这得益于一系列胰岛素(财政和货币政策的刺激)和糖(企业重建被耗尽库存的急迫性)的摄入。但以过往经济复苏的标准来衡量，美国经济目前的增长速度不是很快。American consumers, turning thrifty, are reluctant to spend. Banks are reluctant to lend. Employers are reluctant to hire. Government is reluctant to administer more stimulus. Yet forecasters at J.P. Morgan Chase, more optimistic than some others, predict that U.S. output of goods and services, its gross domestic product, will be back at prerecession levels by mid-2010. Europe and Japan wont reach that point until well into 2012.正在变得节俭的美国消费者不愿意支出。银行不愿意放贷。雇主不愿意招人。政府不愿意出台更多经济刺激措施。但比其他一些人乐观的摩根大通公司(J.P. Morgan Chase)预测人士预计，到2010年中期时，美国国内生产总值将重新回到经济衰退前的水平。欧洲和日本则要在2012年开始很长一段时间后才能达到这一水平。Europe still looks ill. The recession was deeper there, and fiscal and monetary stimulus less aggressive than in the U.S. and China. Its businesses are more dependent on banks than U.S. firms, and European banks havent been - or havent been forced to be - as open about their losses or as quick to bolster capital cushions.欧洲看上去依然是病怏怏的。这里的衰退程度更深，而财政和货币刺激力度则不及美国和中国。欧洲企业比美国公司更依赖银行，而欧洲的银行一直未能(或一直未被迫)像美国的银行那样公开其损失情况或迅速补充资本金。And now the sinners of Europe, economies that were living and borrowing well above their means, are being forced to repent: Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal. Because they share a currency, the euro, and have surrendered interest-rate setting to the European Central Bank, they cant cut interest rates or let currencies fall to goose exports, and now their ability to keep borrowing cheaply to cushion weak economies is in doubt.现在欧洲那些寅吃卯粮和过度举债的国家正被迫追悔，它们是希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰和葡萄牙。由于它们是欧元区国家，都把利率决定权交给了欧洲央行(European Central Bank)，因此它们无法下调利率或让货币贬值以提振出口，而现在它们继续以低成本借入资金以支撑国内疲弱经济的能力也已令人怀疑。The only options are painful: austere government budgets and cuts in wages to make prices of exports more attractive. The U.K. has the luxury of allowing the pound to slide, but, as central banker Mervyn King noted this week, exporting its way out of its woes depends on the willingness of Europe to buy.唯一的可行选择是一条痛苦之路：紧缩政府预算并削减工资，以便使出口产品价格更有吸引力。虽然英国有权让英镑贬值，但正如英国央行行长默文金(Mervyn King)本周所指出的，英国能否靠增加出口使经济摆脱困境，要取决于欧洲其他国家是否愿意买英国的产品。Japan is harder to read. Like other export-dependent economies, it took a hit when the U.S. stopped buying. U.S. imports from Japan fell 31% in 2009 from 2008. But its now benefiting from its proximity to China. Japans exports to China, which surpassed the U.S. as its biggest market last year, were 80% higher in January than in the same month last year, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday. That was three times the increase in exports to the U.S. in the same period. Japans fourth-quarter performance was encouraging, but the persistent threats of deflation and political paralysis cloud its outlook.日本的经济形势则更加难以判断。与其他依赖出口的经济体一样，美国进口下降也使日本遭受打击。美国2009年从日本的进口额较2008年下降31%。但日本目前正因其地理上靠近中国而受益。中国去年取代美国成为日本的最大出口市场，日本财务省(Ministry of Finance)周三称，日本今年一月份的对华出口较上年同期增长80%，