南加利福尼亚州规划模型应用PPT课件.ppt

DevelopmentandApplicationsofSouthernCaliforniaPlanningModel SCPM QishengPan Ph D AssociateProfessorandChairDepartmentofUrbanPlanningandEnvironmentalPolicySchoolofPublicAffairsTexasSouthernUniversityHouston Texas WuhanUniversity HuBei ChinaJune27 2011 1 1 INTRODUCTION SouthernCaliforniaPlanningModel SCPM isaregionalinput outputmodelthatreportsresultsinconsiderablespatialdetail ItwasinitiallydevelopedbyGordon RichardsonandtheircolleaguesatUniversityofSouthernCalifornia USC intheearlyof1990s Richardson etal 1993 Gordon RichardsonandDavis 1998 VariousversionsofSCPMhavebeendevelopedsincethen Thismodeladdressestheproblemofspatialeconomicimpactanalysiswithinthefive countyareaoftheLosAngelesMetropolitanarea IthasbeenwidelyappliedinLosAngelesandotherregionsandsteadilyupdatedovertheyearsasnewandreviseddatasourcesbecameavailable UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 2 GeneralMethodologyofSCPM SCPMincorporatesaregionaleconomicinput outputmodellinkedtoaspatialallocationmodel Theeconomicinput outputmodelisusedtoestimatetheindirectandinducedeffectsofaplan projectorpolicy Thedirecteffectsareallocatedtotheimpactedareas theindirecteffectsareallocatedtozonesaccordingtobase yearproportions andtheinducedeffects i e theeffectsresultingfromhouseholdexpenditurechanges aredistributedspatiallythroughouttheentireregionviathespatialallocationmodel TheresultsgeneratedbySCPMweredetailedeconomicimpactsintermsofjobsordollarvaluesofoutputbysectorandbysub regionalzone Thelatteraretypicallylocalcitiesandothercommunities UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 3 SCPM1 SCPM1isaSAS basedprogramdevelopedintheearlyof1990s Itwasusedtotracealleconomicimpacts includingthoseofintra andinterregionalshipments usuallyatacertainlevelofsectoralandgeographicaldisaggregation Likemostotherinter industrialmodels SCPM1wasdemanddriventoaccountforlossesprimarilyviabackwardandforwardlinkagesbetweeneconomicsectors Differentfrommanyotherinter industrialmodels however itallocatedregionaleconomicimpactstogeographiczonessuchaspoliticalboundaries seeRichardsonetal 1993 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China TheComponentsofSCPM1 ThefirstmodelcomponentwasbuiltupontheRegionalScienceResearchInstitute RSRI input output I O modelwithahighdegreeofsectoraldisaggregation 494sectors Directimpactscanincludetheconstructionofnewfacilitiesandreductionsinhouseholdexpendituresresultingfromincreasedtaxestopayforthesefacilities TheI Omodelscalculateallindirectandinducedimpactsaftersubtractingleakages i e expendituresthataccruetofirmsoutsidetheregion Indirectimpactsconsistofimpactsonvendorsfromwhomconstructorspurchasematerialsandservices Inducedimpactsconsistoftheimpactsspecifictothelaborsector Thesesector specificimpactscanbeexpressedintermsofdollarsorjobs UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China ThesecondbasicmodelcomponentinvolvedtheadaptationofaGarin Lowry typemodel Garin 1966 forspatiallyallocatingtheeconomicimpactsgeneratedbytheinput outputmodel whichisthekeyaspectofSCPMmodels Thedirectimpactsconsistofthefinaldemandchanges Theindirecteffectstracetheinterindustrylinkageswithothersectors eitherforwardsorbackwards Theinducedeffectsmeasurethesecondaryconsumptionimpactsassociatedwiththereducedspendingofworkersinboththedirectandindirectsectors Toestimatetheinducedeffects weuseajourney to workmatrixtotracewagesearnedbacktothehome andthenweuseajourney to servicesmatrixtotraceretailandpersonalservicepurchasesfromthehometoretailandserviceestablishments UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China ThebuildingblocksoftheSCPM1werethemetropolitaninput outputmodel ajourney to workmatrix andajourney to nonwork destinationsmatrix thatis ajourney to servicesmatrixormorerestrictivelydescribedasa journey to shop matrix Dataforthejourney to workmatrixandjourney to servicesmatrixcomefromtheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments SCAG TheapplicationsofSCPM1includetheestimateofthespatial sectoralimpactsoftheSouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrict sAirQualityManagementPlanandtheanalysisofotherLosAngelesmetropolitan areapolicyproblems UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Beginningwithavectoroffinaldemands V d totaloutputsfromtheopenandclosedinput output I O modelsarecalculatedasfollows V o I Ao F d 1 V c I Ac F d 2 whereAoandAcarematricesoftechnicalcoefficientsfortheopenandclosedI Omodels V o andV c arethecorrespondingvectorsoftotaloutputs Thenotationc indicatesthatthehouseholdsectorisincluded V c representsthevectoroftotaloutputfromtheclosedmodelforallbutthehouseholdsector ModelingStructureofSCPM1 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China V c maythenbere expressedasthesumofthreetypesofoutput direct d indirect i andinduced u V c V d V i V u 3 V i V o V d 4 V u V c V o 5 Equation 6 isthespatialcounterparttoequation 3 Z c Z d Z i Z u 6 whereineachcaseZ c isamatrixofimpactsbothbyspatialunit zone andbysector TheZ d Z i andZ u areallderivedorspecifiedindifferentways UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China TheSCPMallocatesindirectoutputsaccordingtotheproportionofemployeesineachsectorbyzone Specifically wehave Z i P diag F i 7 wherePisamatrixindicatingtheproportionofemployeesineachzoneandwheretheoperator diag diagonalizestheindicatedvector ThespatialallocationofinducedimpactsemployedJSH journeyfromservicestohome andJHW journeyfromhometowork Z u JSH JHW P diag F u 8 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Thedegreeofsectoraldisaggregationbyzoneswasnotasfineasthatoftheinput outputsectors theinitialversionofSCPM1aggregated494input outputsectorsinto12sectors ThetransportationflowsinSCPM1arerelativelyaggregatedcomparedwithtransportationmodels definedprimarilyatthelevelofpoliticaljurisdictions Withnoexplicitrepresentationofthetransportationnetwork SCPM1hasnomeanstoaccountfortheeconomicimpactofchangesintransportationsupply Itdoesnotaccountforthechangesintransportationcosts underestimatingthecostsofanyexogenousshock LimitationsofSCPM1 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 4 SCPM2 SCPM2isamuchmoreadvancedversionoftheSouthernCaliforniaPlanningModelthatendogenizestrafficflowsincludingfreightdeliveriesand therefore indirectinterindustryeffectsbyincludinganexplicitrepresentationofthetransportationnetwork SCPM2wasthefirstversionofSCPMmodeltomakeexplicitdistancedecay i e thedeclineinthenumberoftripswithincreasingdistance andcongestionfunctions thebuild upoftrafficcongestionanddelaycostsasparticularroutesattractmoretrafficasotherpartsofthenetworkaredisrupted TreatingthetransportationnetworkexplicitlyendogenizesotherwiseexogenousGarin Lowrystylematricesdescribingthetravelbehaviorofhouseholds achievingconsistencyacrossnetworkcostsandorigin destinationrequirements Thisalsobetterallocatesindirectandinducedeconomiclossesoverzonesinresponsetodirectlossesintrade employmentandtransportationcapacity UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Figure1 DataflowsandmodelcalculationsofSCPM2 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China SCPM2incorporatestransportationnetworkmodelwithgravitymodelstoallocateindirectandinducedimpactsgeneratedbyinput outputmodeltotheTAZs Whentrafficflowsareendogenous anychangeineconomicactivitythataffectsthetravelbehaviorofindividualsorthemovementoffreightwillinfluencehowthetransportationnetworkisused andtheseimpactswillworkthemselvesoutaschangefromonenetworkequilibriumtoanother Thisextensionalloweduseofthefreightdatabasefromaregionaltransportationmodel Themodelhasthecapabilitytoestimatelossesassociatedwithshipping infrastructureandproductivecapacity ThelimitationofSCPM2isthatthemodelonlyinvolvedtheestimatesoftrafficinthethree hourAM peakperiodusingstaticuser equilibriumassignment seeChoetal 1999 Gordonetal 2005 2006 Richardson2008 Pan2008 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China SCPM2resultsarecomputedatthelevelofSCAG s3 217trafficanalysiszones andthenaggregatedtothelevelofthe308politicaljurisdictionsdefinedforSCPM1 SCPM2atfirstaggregatedto17the515sectorsrepresentedintheRegionalScienceResearchInstitute sPCI Omodel butmorerecentlyhasdisaggregatedto47sectorsandreplacedtheRSRIdatabasebyIMPLANI Omodelwith509sectors ThelaterupdatedofSCPM2in2005 wecalledSCPM05 usestheUSCsectorsandincludesmoreup to datedataandotherrefinementsbeyondSCPM2 theSCPM05modelmakesuseof2005FreightModelestimates Freightflowsaremoredifficulttoestimatethanpassengerflows butweobtainedexternalvalidationfortheaccuracyoftheseestimatesbycomparingour2005estimateswiththeSCAG2003AnnualAverageWeekdayTruckTrafficCounts SCAG LAMTA 2004 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China WehypotheticallyassumetheexplosionofoneortwoRDDs radiologicaldispersaldevices attheports whichresultsintheclosureofoneorbothportsonhealthevenmorethanonsecuritygrounds 4 1 CaseStudy1 DirtyBomb AttacksontheTwinPortsinLA UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 4 1 CaseStudy1 DirtyBomb AttacksontheTwinPortsinLA WehypotheticallyassumetheexplosionofoneortwoRDDs radiologicaldispersaldevices attheports whichresultsintheclosureofoneorbothportsonhealthevenmorethanonsecuritygrounds Localimpacttreatsportsclosedownasaneconomicshockdirectlyontheportareaswhileregionalandnationalimpactscomefromtheinterruptionoftradeflowstoandfromtheports 6scenariosforregionalandnationalimpacts 15 dayPortClosure NoBridgeDamage PortofLongBeach PortofLosAngeles orboth 120 dayPortClosurewithBridgeDamage PortofLongBeach PortofLosAngeles orboth UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Figure2 SpatialDistributionofJobLosses 120 DayPortClosure PortsofLongBeach LosAngeles BridgeDamage Scenario6 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 2020 2 7 19 Figure3 Theconvergeofnetworkassignmentforbothpassengerandfreighttrips scenario4 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Case2 HypotheticalHurricaneAttackonHouston Galveston HurricanesKatrinaandRitahavecausedtremendoussocio economiclossesontheGulfCoastregionaswellasthroughoutareasoftheUnitedStates FederalEmergencyManagementAgency FEMA hasdevelopedaHurricaneModelinitsHAZUSpackagetoestimatedirectlossesofhurricanes however thereisnomoduleinthehurricanemodeltocalculateindirectandinducedimpactsofhurricanesonindustrypurchasesandhouseholdconsumption AnSCPMstylemodelproposesasystematicapproachtoestimatedirect indirect andinducedeffectsofhurricanesandalsoallocatethemtosmallimpactanalysiszonesWecreateascenarioforahypotheticalmajorhurricaneeventintheHouston Galvestonarea UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China ThisstudyutilizesthestormtrackandthecorrespondingadvisorypointsfromtheHURREVAC2000databaseforHurricaneRitaatitslandfalltime ThestormtrackisshiftedtotheSouthwestbyabout85miles whichcausestheHurricanetomakelandfallatthecoastbytheCityofGalvestonandallowthetracktoroughlyfollowInterstate45tocrossHoustondowntown ScenarioDesign UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Figure4 StormTrackandAdvisoryPointsfortheHypotheticalHurricane Rita 23 ThefinaldirectimpactsarecalculatedbyutilizingtheinputsofbuildingdamagestatesandotherinformationfromtheHAZUSHurricaneModel Theinput outputmodelfromtheMinnesotaIMPLANGroupInc MIG isadoptedtoestimatetotalindirectandinducedeffects ThetotalindirectandinducedimpactsresultingfromtheIMPLANinput outputmodelareallocatedtospatialanalysiszones i e CensusTractinthiscase usingthefunctionsavailableinSCPM EconomicLossesEstimatedbyanSCPMStyleModel UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Figure5 TotalLossesofJobsfromtheHypotheticalHurricane Rita Event 25 OTHERAPPLICATIONSofSCPM2 TheSocialEconomicImpactsofCaltransI 5ExpansionPlanontheSCAG SouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments Region 2001 AnEconomicImpactEvaluationofProposedStormWaterTreatmentforLosAngelesCounty 2002 TheEconomicImpactsofATerroristAttackontheDowntownLosAngelesFinancialDistrict 2006RANDStudyontheWesternRiversideCountyMultipleSpeciesHabitatConservationPlan 2007 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China 5 SCPM3 SimilartoSCPM1andSCPM2 SCPM3isalsodesignedtoestimatespatiallydetailedeconomicimpactsthroughoutthefive countyLosAngelesmetropolitanarea TheinnovationofSCPM3istointroducetime of daychoice ThecurrentSCPM3inheritsallthecapabilitiesofSCPM2butaddstime of dayfunctionstomodelAMpeak 6 9AM PMpeak 3 7PM andoff peaktraffic 9AM 3PMand7PM 6AM ItshiftstheemphasisofSCPMmodelsevenmoretowardstransportationissues Itwasdevelopedtofacilitateanunderstandingoftheeffectsofpeak loadpricingonacomplexlanduse transportationsystem includingimpactsontransportationnetworkperformanceatthelinklevelandactivityeffectsattheTAZlevel ThemodelstructureisshowninFigure6 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Figure6 SCPM3ModelStructure UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China SimilartoSCPM2005 theinput outputmodelcomponentintheSCPM3modelisstillbasedontheIMPLANmodel IMPLANhasahighdegreeofsectoraldisaggregationwith509sectorscompressedinourmodeltothe47 USCSectors Thesecondimportantmodelcomponentspatiallyallocatessectoralimpactsincludingdirect indirect andinducedimpactsacross3 191trafficanalysiszones TAZs plus12 externalzones thatlocateshipmentstoandfromtheregion throughoutotherregions ThethirdbasicmodelcomponentisafreightmodelthatestimatesthefreightflowO Dmatrix ThefreightflowmatrixdevelopedinthefreightmodelhasbeenusedtoallocatestheindirecteffectstoTAZsorpoliticaljurisdictions TheComponentsofSCPM3 UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China UserEquilibriumwithVariableDemandinSCPM3 Wedevelopedauserequilibriumwithvariabledemandmodel UE VD fortimeofthedaychoice whichhasanobjectivefunctionformulatedasfollows Where xaisthetotalflowonlinka ta x isthecost flowfunctiontocalculateaveragetravelcostonlinka islink pathincidencevariable isflowonpathpconnectingODpairoandd Todispeak hourtripbetweenoriginnodeoanddestinationnoded isthetotaltripbetweenoriginnodeoanddestinationnoded pisanetworkpath oanddaretwoendnodesonthenetwork istheinverseofthedemandfunctionforO Dpair o d Min Subjectto UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Thepeak hourtripsarecalculatedusingademandfunctioninthelogitformulaasfollows Theinversedemandfunctionwouldbe Tosolvethevariabledemandproblemwithanefficientfixed demandformulation anexcessdemandfunctionisderivedasfollows Theobjectivefunctioncanbere formulatedasfollows UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China Thesolutionalgorithmissummarizedasfollows Step0 Initialization Performall or nothingapproachtoassigntripsusingfreeflowtravelcosts foreachlinkontheemptynetwork InitialfeasiblesolutionsoflinkflowsandO Dtripsinagivenpeakperiodareobtained Step1 Update Thetraveltimeonlinkisupdatedasandinversedemandfunctionvalueiscalculated Step2 Findafeasibledescentdirection Usetheupdatedtraveltime ta foranall or nothingassignmentforthetrips Ityieldsasetofauxiliarylinkflows Step3 Findoptimalparameter Alinearapproximationalgorithm LPA suchasGoldensectionmethodisappliedtoobtainoptimalparametersatisfyingtheUE VDequationStep4 Updatelinkflows LinkflowsandO Dflowsareupdated Step5 TestConvergence Theprocessstopswhenaconvergencecriterionissatisfiedandlinkflowsaretheoptimallinkflowsatequilibriumcondition Otherwise gobacktoStep1andcontinuetheprocess UrbanDevelopmentinthe21stCenturyWuhan China SCPM3wasutilizedtomodeltheimpactsofpeak loadpricingonthemajorthoroughfaresofamajormetropolitanarea inthiscase theFive CountyLosAngelesarea Cashtollswouldbefactoredintothegeneralizedtrav