economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照.doc

Whopper to go至尊汉堡，打包带走Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK SHARES in Burger King (BK) soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it. How much beef was behind these stories was unclear. But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way. There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonalds serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。Recession has favoured McDonalds over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008. Shares in McDonalds have risen, reaching an all-time high in August. Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。Why has McDonalds been eating BKs lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession. McDonalds, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee. BK has struggled to follow suit. At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits. BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。 汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。BK is used to changes in ownership. It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant. In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs. They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing. They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants. In 2006 BK floated its shares again. Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonalds.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industrynow that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for dealsof gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply. TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006. However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it. If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as “flipping”. 私人股本行业如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。 本主题由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移动评分 收藏2 分享0 0 0 Down the slipway下水“Quantitative easing” is unloved and unappreciatedbut it is working “量化宽松”不受待见，但是有效Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc EVEN before the Federal Reserve unveiled its second round of quantitative easing (QE) on November 3rd, critics had already denounced it as ineffectual or an invitation to inflation. It cannot be both and it may not be either. 美联储的第二轮量化宽松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨击，有人说它不会起效，也有人说这样会导致通胀。这两者根本不可能同时发生，甚至一个都不会发生。The announcement of “QE2” was hardly breathtaking. The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be. That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE. Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused. Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should (see chart). 第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6 000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money. This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments. The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation. The yield on their five-year cousins is negative (see Buttonwood). Share prices are up by 14% in the same period. Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis. “You can declare QE to be a success already,” says one hedge-fund economist. “Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark. But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.”在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益率相对较平和预期通胀的双重作用下，10年期通胀指数化美国国债真实收益率从1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品种则已呈现负利率（见本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市场上涨了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元对日元下跌了5%，对欧元下跌了9%，从贸易加权角度看，则下跌了5%。一位对冲基金经济学家说：“可以说，量化宽松已经获得了成功。它能不能转化为实际行动还不好说。但其机制是否起作用已经毋庸置疑了。”With a bit of a lag, these easier financial conditions are supposed to boost growth through three channels. First, lower real yields spur borrowing and investment. This channel is bunged up: many households cannot borrow because their homes have fallen in value and because banks are less willing to lend. But the remaining two channels remain open. Higher share prices have raised household wealth by some $1.4 trillion, which will spur some spending. And the lower dollar should help trade. American factory purchasing managers reported a sharp jump in export orders in October and a drop in imports. 一般认为，宽松的金融环境将通过三个渠道提振经济增长（可能存在时滞）。第一，真实收益率下降能够刺激借贷与投资。这一渠道目前已经失去了作用：许多家庭因为房价下跌和银行不愿意借贷而无法得到贷款。但剩下的两个渠道仍然畅通。股价上涨已使家庭财富增加了1.4万亿美元，这将刺激支出。美元下跌则应该有利于贸易。美国工厂采购经理报告显示，10月份出口订单出现了大幅增长，进口则有所下降。Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE. Thats not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a 4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs. The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congresss newly empowered Republicans. In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed. 咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers认为，美联储在第二轮量化宽松中将总共购买1.5万亿美元债务，使明年的经济增长率从3.3%（如果不实行量化宽松的话）提高到3.6%。这还不是最令人震惊的：该公司还认为，美国经济需要联邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要达到这一效果，美联储必须购买5.25万亿美元债券才行。要美联储抛出如此大手笔是不可能的，因为它害怕因此导致不可预料的后果，比如引起最近在国会中重掌大权的共和党人的激烈反应。彭博社（Bloomberg）的调查显示，60%自称茶党支持者的人赞成改组甚至取消美联储。Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? “The odds arent zero,” says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but theyre small. Theres more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates. That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded; it can then tighten policy.量化宽松会过犹不及、将通胀预期推高到危险水平吗？“并非不可能。”前美联储副主席邓?考恩（Don Kohn）说，但可能性很小。更大的风险是通胀预期在信贷放松和支出增速之后抬头。但这正是美联储成功的信号，届时它已经可以采取紧缩措施了。Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths. Both India and Australia raised interest rates this week despite rising currencies. 其他国家抱怨量化宽松的唯一作用是，将美国投资者驱向其他国家寻找高收益，是当地货币升值并产生资产泡沫。但这是无论如何都不能避免的事情，因为各个国家的增长路径各不同。印度和澳大利亚本周均在本国货币升值的情况下提高了利率。A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out. But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response. It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week. Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Feds move. If central banks all print money in unison, and dont mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip. QEs benefits should not be over-egged. Nor should they be dismissed. 不能排除发生一种危险情况，那就是各国竞相采取以邻为壑的货币市场干预手段。日本银行在9月就曾经直接干预外汇市场使日元贬值，但这一回，日本银行的反应较为温和。原定11月中旬政策例会上宣布的日本量化宽松计划将提前至本周。分析师认为日本央行此举是为了缓和美联储动作给日元带来的升值压力。如果各国央行一起开动印钞机，而不顾流动性过剩的后果，那么结果将是全球货币刺激。没有必要过分强调量化宽松的好处，但也不应该刻意贬低。Opening stand 登场Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的运气是成功职业开端的一半 Nov 18th 2010 IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings. Might that be true of cricketers careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test (international) match at home. 在板球比赛中，击球手通常需要点运气才能打出不错的击球局。所有板球选手都是这样吗？其他职业也是如此吗？在一篇IMF工作论文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（国际）对抗赛（Test）而言，能在主场上演职业生涯首秀对于板球选手来说是件幸事。Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd (just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th). Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%. 主场作战意为着更熟悉的场地和天气状况，以及更高的观众支持率（关于这一点，11月25日做客布里斯班与澳大利亚进行系列赛的英格兰板球队队员将有切身体会）。通过分析1950至1985年间790位板球手在对抗赛处子秀上的表现，两位作者发现，主场作战平均能将处子系列赛得分“跑”次数较客场提高33%，将被对方投手封杀的“跑”的次数降低18%。This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players. But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members. By using age as a proxy for ability (assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers ages is almost identical for home and away debuts. 当然，如果各队有意将主场处子秀的机会留给较为优秀的选手的话，那么出现上述结果就并非运气了。但处子秀本身是由一系列随机事件决定的：比如队友受伤或是状态低迷等。两位作者将年龄作为能力的一个代表因素（假设选手成功登上国际赛场的年龄越低，则其水平就越优秀），结果发现，板球选手主场处子秀年龄分布和客场没有区别。A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career. Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a players career average. The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers. One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance. A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad. 强势处子秀似乎意味着辉煌的职业生涯。系列赛处子秀上得分跑次数每增加10次，选手职业生涯平均得分跑次数就能增加5次。开门红效应对投手也适用。原因可能是成功的开端所带来的信心和经验能够刺激选手的未来表现。反之，如果处子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的阴影：首秀是在客场，又没能出彩，那么即使你很有潜质，在后来的比赛中也可能得不到出场机会。A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too. Thats especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performancea boom in financial markets for a trader, lets imagine. 良好的开端在其他领域也可能有持久的正面效应。特别是，当雇主只看表面结果而忽略其他可能带来良好表现的因素时，开门红效应就尤为显著。大牛市对于交易员的影响就是其中之一。A rock, not a hard place 选石的，不选硬的Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 资源饥渴地区的矿业繁荣Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain. First they moved from manufacturing to property. Now its the turn of rocks.有时候，银行家在亚洲的一举一动让人感到他们是在逆经济食物链而动。他们先是将注意力从制造业转向房地产。现在则轮到了矿石。In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion ($4.6 billion) in the process. Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before. A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger than before, thanks to Asias appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices.光是在香港，今年以来便已有7家矿产和自然资源公司上市，总融资额高达360亿港币。2009年全年共有13家矿产类公司在香港上市，融资580亿港币，较清淡的2008年有所增长。明年还有1015家公司等着上市。由于亚洲对原材料的巨大需求和不断上涨的商品价格，总融资额达到空前高度已是板上钉钉。One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company. It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in Chinas north-eastern tip. The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m. Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all. Sino Prospers valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms.矿产类股票中火速蹿升，其中中盈国金控股有限公司的表现尤其耀眼。这家香港上司公司一年前还是个皮包公司，手里握有一张协议，内容据说是关于收购内蒙古一家小型金矿和黑龙江省边远地区五块未开发地皮的，去年的市值为4亿港币。从那儿以后，金价开始飙涨，于是小金矿摇身一变成了大宝库，中盈国金的市值目前已高达35亿港币，成了矿业股中的明星。Hong Kongs Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining. It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing (difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange) or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm. Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian governments intervention to block BHP Billitons hostile takeover of Potash Corporation. 上周，众多加拿大公司出席了一个由香港加拿大商会（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）举办的凭柬入场矿业会议，或是争取直接上市（这比较困难，因为香港股票交易所对上市公司盈利能力要求较高），或是寻求手握重金又急切需要资源的中国企业作为部分投资人，以获得资本。投资者们似乎不太担心挖矿风险，而是更加顾忌潜在的政治障碍加拿大政府干预叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）对Potash公司的敌意收购。Enthusiasm for minerals firms is not found just in Hong Kong. There are stirrings in less likely places, too. The Mongolian stock exchange, located in a lovely old cinema in Ulan Bator, has been transformed into a meeting place for international bankers. Locally listed miners are booming. A tie-up between the Mongolian bourse and the London Stock Exchange is expected to be announced by the end of the month.并非只有香港出现了矿业公司狂热。在某些意想不到的地方，矿业股也是热火朝天。位于乌兰巴托一座漂亮的老剧院内蒙古证券交易所最近成了国际银行家的聚会之地。本地的上市矿业公司非常火爆。蒙古证券交易所与伦敦证券交易所（London Stock Exchange）的合作预计将于本月末公布。Only two large mines are currently being developedgold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoibut there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company. Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too. Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager. Just like the bankers.目前蒙古只有两个较大的矿处于开发中Oyu Tolgoi的金铜伴生矿和Tavan Tolgoi的煤矿。但是，TenGer银行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有传言说蒙古政府正在就全国众多小型矿和15个主要大矿与全球矿业巨头进行重要谈判。除了矿产企业之外，金融家也在蒙古寻求着其他业务机会。Hutagt用“狼”来形容蒙古经济，认为它又饥饿又迫切。这倒是与银行家颇为相似。Americas budget deficit美国的预算赤字Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw轻声细语的德州电锯Sorting out Americas fiscal mess is relatively simple. Whats needed is political courage欲解美国财政乱局何其简单，政治勇气足以Nov 18th 2010LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections. With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad. Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy. He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle Americas ominous fiscal arithmetic.自从奥巴马领军的民主党在中期选举中身受重创后，他两周内接连出访欧亚两洲；因此频繁出席境外峰会也就不稀奇了。既然国内前景仍是一片僵局，那么总统先生转战国外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奥巴马目前急需证明自己仍有能力引领国内政局；鉴于目前美国的“预算数学题”非常难解，他不妨从这里开始，但需要拉拢国会以便达成共识。Conventional wisdom says such an agreement is impossible: the problem is too big, the politics too difficult. But it is wrong to suppose that the deficit is unfixable, as two proposals for fixing it have shown this month (see article). And even the politics may not be totally intractable.公众的态度是这种共识无法形成：问题太严重，政见太复杂。不过认为赤字问题无药可救也是片面的，因为仅本月就已经出现了两个应对提案。甚至掌控政治问题也非难事。A trillion-dollar trove上万亿的聚宝盆The scale of Americas fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look. Todays deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge. Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years. But that is largely thanks to the economys woes. If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015. But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care. Such “entitlements” will double the f