经济学人双语.doc

CORRUPTION conjures up images of shadowy deals among lobbyists, corporations and crooked government officials. But it is often more mundane, as officials demand bribes even to deliver routine public services. Figures from Gallup, a pollster, reveal just how widespread such corruption is (see chart). 腐败总是让人想起院外活动分子、企业和腐化政府官员之间的肮脏交易。但通常腐败远没有这么复杂，比如，有的官员即使在提供日常公共服务时也会索贿。盖洛普调查公司的数据揭示了这类腐败有多么普遍（见图）。Economists argue that such small-scale graft does great damage. Official extortion erodes trust. As authorities in countries like Greece are discovering, fighting tax evasion is hard if people have little trust in the honesty of tax officials themselves.经济学家指出，这样的小规模行贿受贿危害很大。官员索贿会破坏信任。希腊等国的当局正在发现，如果人民不信任税务官员的诚信的话，与逃税的斗争是非常艰难的。An Indian website, , set up last summer by anti-corruption activists, reveals just how grasping officials can be. It has documented over 8,500 instances of bribery adding up to nearly 375m rupees ($8.4m) in backhanders. These include 100 rupees to get a policeman to register a complaint about a stolen mobile phone and 500 rupees for a clerk to hand over a marriage certificate. The amounts are much larger to facilitate income-tax refunds, where the standard “charge” is 10%; sums between 5,000 and 50,000 rupees change hands. 去年，印度反腐败活跃分子成立了一个名叫的网站，专门揭露官员的贪婪能达到什么程度。该网站已公布了8500桩行贿案，总额近3.75亿卢比（840万美元）。这些案子包括：100卢比行贿一名警察登记一起手机被盗案；500卢比行贿一位工作人员提交结婚证。为了获得返还所得税便利而行贿的数量则要大得多，标准“费用”是10%，总数多在5000到50000卢比之间。But such initiatives can do little beyond allowing people to vent their anger about corruption. Kaushik Basu, the chief economic adviser to Indias finance ministry, suggests that this may be partly because the law treats both bribe-giving and bribe-taking as crimes. This makes it hard to blow the whistle on corrupt officials, because the bribe-giver has also broken the law. If he complains, he risks prosecution or, more likely, being asked for another bribe by the police. In a provocative paper based on game theory, Mr Basu argues for the legalisation of some kinds of bribe-giving. His proposal has instigated a furious debate in India, with television channels even assembling panels to discuss it.但这样的做法充其量也就是宣泄一下人们对腐败的愤怒。印度财政部长首席经济顾问巴苏（Kaushik Basu）指出，这部分是因为法律将行贿和受贿均视为犯罪。这样做会加大告发受贿行为的难度，因为行贿者也触犯了法律。如果他起诉的话，他也可能受到审判，或者（更有可能的是）被警察询问其他贿赂案件。在一篇颇具争议的基于博弈论的论文中，巴苏呼吁让几种行贿合法化。他的建议在印度激起了激烈的争论，甚至有电视太组织了专家组来讨论这个问题。 Some thunder that the economist is condoning corruption. But Mr Basu makes clear that paying an official to bend the rules in ones favour should continue to be illegal. The category of payments he would like to legalise are “harassment bribes”, made by a person to get things to which he is legally entitled. In such cases, Mr Basu argues, the giver should be granted immunity from prosecution and a proven complaint should result not only in punishment for the corrupt official but also in a “refund” for the bribe-giver. These steps, he believes, will align the incentives of those asked for bribes and law-enforcement agencies which seek to prosecute corrupt officials by giving their victims the confidence to lodge complaints and encouraging them to hang on to evidence of bribery. Fear of being caught should make officials more wary of asking for bribes in the first place.有人怒称这位经济学家在纵容腐败。但巴苏清楚地指出，付钱给官员让他为某人的利益而践踏法律将继续被认定为非法。他建议合法化的贿赂是“骚扰贿赂”，即某人为了获得应依法获得之物而行贿。巴苏指出，在这些情形中，行贿者应该免于起诉，而受贿投诉一旦被证实，就应该不光惩罚腐败官员，还要向行贿者“返金”。他认为，这些举措能够校正索贿者和试图通过给予受害者投诉信心和鼓励他们上交贿赂证据来起诉腐败官员的执法机构的激励。担心被抓应该能够让官员在首次伸手前三思而后行。This sounds promising in theory. But Indias courts are notoriously slow. Jean Drze, an Indian development economist, reckons that the difficulty of pursuing a legal case against a corrupt official may mean that few will complain. If so, Mr Basus idea may inadvertently result in an increase in the incidence of corruption. At least some people who would earlier have refused when asked for a bribe, Mr Drze reckons, would now pay up. 这在理论上看来颇有些道理。但印度的法律程序向来以慢著称。印度发展经济学家德莱兹（Jean Dreze）认为，向腐败官员提起法律诉讼太难，因此很少有人会起诉。如果这样的的话，巴苏的办法可能会好心办坏事，反而增加腐败的发案率。德莱兹认为，至少一部分先前断然对索贿说不的人现在会乖乖就范。Yet when the bribes are for things that are their due, refusal to pay is unrealistic for most people. The tone of those posting on the bribe-reporting website suggest that people are keen to strike back at corrupt officials. Because Mr Basus idea should make this easier, it is worth considering. So are steps such as moving more transactions online, to reduce contact with officials. Fighting corruption will need more than one clever idea.不过，多于大部分人来说，当行贿是为了得到应得之物时，要他们对索贿说不有些强人所难。在贿赂曝光网站上的发帖语气表明，人们对倒腐败官员的期望颇为迫切。巴苏的办法可以让这一点变得更容易，因此值得考虑。其他措施将更多的交易拿到网上进行、减少和官员的联系等。和腐败作斗争，光有明智的想法是不够的。from the print edition | Finance and EconomicsFew woes in Warsaw华沙没有悲哀The third in our series looks at Poland, an emerging market that remained insulated from shocks on its doorstep关于波兰的第三篇系列报道，一个始终将冲击隔绝于门外的新兴市场。Apr 28th 2011 | from the print edition POLAND is the only economy in the European Union that kept growing all the way through the crisis. Its ability to insulate itself from external shocks stems partly from history and geography. It is by far the biggest economy in central Europe (making up 40% of the GDP of the EUs ten new ex-communist members), and gets lots of oomph from domestic demand. Expansion in neighbouring countries, mainly Germany, is now stoking Polish growth, forecast at around 4% this year and next波兰是欧盟中唯一一个在金融危机中保持经济增长的经济体，其有效的阻隔外部冲击的能力部分得益于其历史和地理因素。目前为止，波兰是中欧最大的经济体（占据了欧盟十个前共产主义国家成员GDP的40%），并且其国内市场也欣欣向荣。在邻国的投资（主要是德国）将为波兰的发展推波助澜，据估计在今明两年将会达到4%左右。But Poland also entered the crisis in sound shape. Its banks were stodgy in their lending. The property market stayed unbubbly in most of the country. Monetary policy had been overly tight in the early years of the last decade. That slowed growth then, but proved a blessing later.但是波兰在管理的有效性上却陷入过危机。银行任然惜贷，众多国家房产市场依然冷清。在前十年的早些时候，其货币政策过于谨慎。这滞后了波兰经济的发展，但却在后来有效的抵御了金融危机。Another advantage was a floating exchange rate: the Polish zloty plunged during the downturn, helping exporters and the tourism industry. In the Baltic states (which had currency boards) and Slovakia (which adopted the euro in 2009) the burden of adjustment went uncushioned, meaning cuts in nominal wages.另一个优势是浮动汇率制度：波兰兹洛特在经济不景气的时候曾贬值趋势，有效地帮助了出口商和观光业。波罗地海国家（有共同的通货委员会）和斯洛伐克（其在2009年加入欧盟），压力调整未能得到缓冲，致使名义工资下降。Protection against external shocks gave Polands policymakers plenty of room for manoeuvre. They did not need to hike interest rates to save the currency and soothe investors. They did not need a pro-cyclical fiscal policy to stave off default or devaluation. Instead Poland could afford a classic Keynesian response to the downturn. The government ran big budget deficits (7.3% in 2009 and 7.9% last year), a hefty fiscal stimulus that kept domestic consumption purring along while it collapsed elsewhere. For many of Polands peers the crisis exposed the narrow base of their economies. When construction, exports and investment plunged, nothing could take up the slack. In Poland, the consumer kept spending.针对外部影响的保护措施，给予波兰的决策们足够的空间来进行调整。他们不需要提高利率来对货币保值和稳定投资者的情绪。他们也不需要一个周期性的金融政策来规避偿还违约和货币贬值。取而代之，波兰采取的是经典的凯恩斯主义来应对经济下滑。政府维持着较高的预算赤字（2009年为7.3%，2010年为7.9%），一个强有力的财政刺激使得当别处经济纷纷凋敝的时候，唯独波兰国内消费一直曾上升趋势。对于众多波兰议员来说金融危机拓宽了他们原本狭隘的经济模式。当建造业、出口和投资纷纷萧条是，没有什么可以阻止衰退。但在波兰，消费者却在持续消费。For the stimulus to work, outsiders had to be willing to lend. Poland was well served by its finance minister, Jacek Rostowski, a sardonic English-born economics professor, who adeptly managed the borrowing splurge. Polands credit rating barely budged as that of some other ex-communist countries plunged. It helped that Poland in 2009 gained, and did not need to use, a $20 billion credit line from the International Monetary Fund.Wider worries about the euro zone and currencies on its periphery may have helped Poland, too. They kept away the hot money that has sent exchange rates soaring in other emerging-market stars. Even when the zloty hardened, demand from Germany kept exports booming (keen prices and flexible workers make Polish subcontractors a vital part of the Teutonic trade machine). “Germany helped save Mitteleuropa,” says Marcin Piatkowski, a Warsaw-based World Bank economist. Poland has replaced Russia as Germanys main eastern trading partner, even including energy.为使经济刺激计划运转，需要外部借款。波兰财政部长Jacek Rostowski， 一个在英国出生的经济学家很好的打理着波兰的经济，他精通于管理贷款项的使用。在其他前社会主义国家信贷评级被下调的时候，波兰的信贷评级丝毫没有影响，这使得波兰在2009年有盈余，并且不需要使用IMF提供的200亿美元的信贷额度。更广泛的关切是欧元区和周边区域的货币也将帮助了波兰的经济。他们把让其他的新兴市场的汇率发生剧烈波动的热钱拒之门外。甚至在兹洛特坚挺的时候，来自德国的需求仍使出口业猛增（有诱惑力的价格和灵活的劳动力让波兰的承销商成为了日耳曼市场的一个重要组成部分）。世界银行驻华沙的经济学家，Marcin Piatkowski认为“德国的帮助拯救了中欧地区”。包括能源在内，波兰取代俄罗斯成为德国在东欧的主要贸易伙伴。Another boon has been money from abroad. A million or more emigrants send home remittances (worth $9 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank). Poland was also allocated 67 billion ($92 billion) in EU funds for 2007-13. That is paying for new roads, faster railways and lavish training programmes. After a slow start, the Polish bureaucracy has proved one of the most effective spenders of this bonanza (efficiency is another story).另一个颇有裨益的是来自于境外的资金。超过百万的波兰裔移民往波兰汇款（据世界银行统计，在2010年约有9百万美元）。根据2007-13号议案，波兰从欧盟基金组织获得了670万欧元（约合920万美元）。这将用于新道路、高铁及大型运输项目的建设。经历了缓慢的起步期之后，波兰政府证明了其是一个对于所拥有资源利用最有效益的政府(效率那是另一回事情)。The result is a superficially happy picture: broad-based growth, falling unemployment, affordable borrowing and rising investment. But the current account and inflation are worries; so is the budget deficit, which the government said on April 26th it would cut to 2.9% in 2012.从表面上看是一个令人高兴的结果：经济全面发展、失业率下降、贷款的可偿付和投资的不断增长。但是国家的经常项账户和通货膨胀仍令人担忧；介于财政预算的赤字，政府在4月26号声明将在2012年消减至2.9%。Yet if Poland still wants to join the euro (perhaps in 2015), it will do so in better shape than many existing members. Mr Piatkowski speaks of a “New Golden Age”, with Poland converging on west European levels of well-being soon after 2020. That is a fine goal. But first Poland must master its public finances, stoke innovation, widen labour-market participation and deal with the red tape that drags it down international rankings. Poles grumble about such things. They should fix them, too.然而，如果波兰想要加入到欧元区（或许在2015年），其将要比现有的成员做的更好。Piatkowski所说的“新的黄金时代”，指的是波兰在2020年后追赶上西欧国家的福利水平。这是个良好的目标。但波兰首先要良好的国家财政、源源不断的创新、广泛的劳工市场和政府内官僚作风的处理，这将降低其国际地位。波兰人对于这些事情颇有微词，但还是需要处理这些事情。American banks美国本土银行Wheres the growth?增长何在？The worst is over for American banks. Shame about the recovery美国本土银行最艰难的日子已经过去，然而其复苏步伐之慢着实可耻。IN THE second world war Americas army developed a reputation for unsentimentally sacking divisional commanders who lost battles. The effect was to clear out the incompetents but also remove those who were merely unlucky. The policy may sound strangely familiar to the chief financial officers of Americas banks. 在第二次世界大战期间，人们都听说美军会无情地开除吃了败仗的师长。此种做法不仅是为了开除无能之辈，同时也清除了不走运的人。美国本土银行的首席财务官们或许会不可思议地发现这一政策特别耳熟。The door has revolved fastest at Bank of America (BofA). It is now on its sixth finance chief in seven years, having announced the appointment of Bruce Thompson when it released lacklustre first-quarter earnings on April 15th. The bank typifies many of the problems facing the industry. Almost all are still reporting steep falls in revenue from investment banking, and commercial banking is proving to be a lot less profitable than it was. 美国银行的首席财务官更替最为频繁。4月15日，美国银行发布了了无生气的第一季度财报，同时宣布任命布鲁斯汤普森为其七年来的第六任首席财务官。美国银行面临的诸多问题典型地代表了整个美国银行业的现状。几乎所有投资银行的收益仍在大幅下滑，商业银行的盈利能力也大不如前。A casual observer could be forgiven for thinking it was a decent quarter, with many banks posting higher year-on-year operating profits. Yet the numbers have been flattered by a steep fall in the provisions that banks have to set aside for loans that may not be repaid, continuing a trend set in 2010 (see chart). Pre-provision revenues look a lot less healthy.年初以来许多银行的同比经营利润都有所上升，乍看之下容易认为银行业第一季度复苏情况良好，这是可以理解的。然而，根据规定，银行必须为不良贷款留出一定部分的准备金，如此一来，银行的经营利润就大大下挫了。延续2010年的走势（见图示），提取坏账准备金前的银行收益亦不容乐观。The sharpest falls in income were in investment banking. At Goldman Sachs, BofA and Citigroup, revenues from fixed income, currency and commodity trading, the main contributors to investment-banking profits over the past decade, were up to a third lower than a year ago. JPMorgan Chase stood out by containing its decline to 4%. 投资银行收益下挫最为严重。对于高盛投资银行，美国银行及花旗集团来说，在过去几十年，银行收入主要来自于固定收益、货币及货物贸易，今年，上述领域收益比去年下降三分之一。摩根大通银行收益仅下跌百分之四，傲视投行群雄。Last year may have been one to forget for these businesses but analysts at Nomura believe that banks will be lucky if income from them scrapes the same level in 2011. Nervy clients have cut back on trading, and banks are under regulatory pressure to reduce their proprietary-trading activities. New rules on capital and liquidity are also likely to make these businesses less profitable. Reform of derivatives markets will probably push a lot of the trading of bespoke contracts out into the open, where standardised contracts will offer thinner margins. Legal risks have not gone away, either: the Securities and Exchange Commission is continuing to parlay with Wall Street banks to settle fraud allegations related to the sale of dodgy mortgage-backed securities.对于银行业来说，去年经营惨状是它们再也不愿回想的。但是野村证券的分析师则认为，在2011年各大银行若能保持它们以往的业绩就已经很幸运了。客户已减少贸易投入，银行面临减少所有权交易的规范压力，关于资本和流动资产的新规则也许会抑制银行的盈利。衍生产品市场的改革也极有可能将量身定制的合同贸易推向公开市场，而公开市场上的标准化合同贸易则收益甚微。同时，法律风险依然存在。美国证券交易委员会将继续与华尔街的银行合作，打击与按揭证券交易有关的欺诈。The quarter also points to worrying trends in retail banking. Earnings are being flattered by falling non-performing loans: in credit cards, early delinquencies are the lowest for a decade, according to Nomura. But demand for loans from consumers is weak, especially in areas such as credit cards and mortgages, although banks hope that these will soon start to rebound. Ultra-low interest rates also squeeze the profits that banks can usually make by paying below-mark