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COPYRIGHT ZHULI 1 Chapter7 Netpresentvalueandotherinvestmentcriteria 2 Objectives CalculatethenetpresentvalueofaninvestmentCalculatetheinternalrateofreturnofaprojectandknowwhattolookoutforwhenusingtheinternalrateofreturnruleExplainwhythepaybackruledoesn talwaysmakeshareholdersbetteroffUsethenetpresentvalueruletoanalyzethreecommonproblemsthatinvolvecompetingprojects a whentopostponeaninvestmentexpenditure b howtochoosebetweenprojectswithunequallives and c whentoreplaceequipmentCalculatetheprofitabilityindexanduseittochoosebetweenprojectswhenfundsarelimited 3 Content NetpresentvalueOtherinvestmentcriteriaMoreexamplesofmutuallyexclusiveprojectsCapitalrationingAlastlook 4 Netpresentvalue 净现值Opportunitycostofcapital 资金的机会成本Mutuallyexclusiveprojects 互斥项目 5 Netpresentvalue NPV presentvalueofcashflowsminusinvestmentThenetpresentvaluerulestatesthatmanagersincreaseshareholders wealthbyacceptingallprojectsthatareworthmorethantheycost Therefore theyshouldacceptallprojectswithapositivenetpresentvalueThefirsttwostepsincalculatingNPVs forecastingthecashflowsandestimatingtheopportunitycostofcapital Netpresentvalue 6 Supposethatyouhaveidentifiedapossibletenantwhowouldbepreparedtorentyourofficeblockfor3yearsatafixedannualrentof 16000 Youforecastthatafteryouhavecollectedthethirdyear srentthebuildingcouldbesoldfor 450000 Assumethattheopportunitycostofcapitalisr 7 7 Afactorycosts 400 000 Youreckonthatitwillproduceaninflowafteroperatingcostsof 100 000inyear1 200 000inyear2 and 300 000inyear3 Theopportunitycostofcapitalis12percent DrawupaworksheetandusetablestocalculatetheNPV 8 Whenyouneedtochooseamongmutuallyexclusiveprojects thedecisionruleissimple calculatetheNPVofeachalternative andchoosethehighestpositive NPVproject Mutuallyexclusiveprojects twoormoreprojectsthatcannotbepursuedsimultaneously 9 UsingtheNPVruletochooseamongprojects Reinvestmentassumption theNPVruleassumesthatallcashflowscanbereinvestedatthediscountrate MinimumAcceptanceCriteria AcceptifNPV 0RankingCriteria ChoosethehighestNPV 10 Content NetpresentvalueOtherinvestmentcriteriaMoreexamplesofmutuallyexclusiveprojectsCapitalrationingAlastlook 11 Paybackperiod 投资回收期Internalrateofreturn IRR 内含报酬率 12 Payback Paybackperiod timeuntilcashflowsrecovertheinitialinvestmentintheprojectThepaybackrulestatesthataprojectshouldbeacceptedifitspaybackperiodislessthanaspecifiedcutoffperiodTousethepaybackrule afirmhastodecideonanappropriatecutoffperiod基准期 13 AdvantagesSimplicityDisadvantagesPaybackdoesnotconsideranycashflowsthatarriveafterthepaybackperiodPaybackdoesnotconsiderthetimevalueofmoney 14 Internalrateofreturn Tworulesfordecidingwhethertogoaheadwithaninvestmentproject1 TheNPVrule InvestinanyprojectthathasapositiveNPVwhenitscashflowsarediscountedattheopportunitycostofcapital2 Therateofreturnrule InvestinanyprojectofferingarateofreturnthatishigherthantheopportunitycostofcapitalTherateofreturnorinternalrateofreturn IRR isthediscountrateatwhichNPVequalszeroTherateorreturnrulewillgivethesameanswerastheNPVruleaslongastheNPVofaprojectdeclinessmoothlyasthediscountrateincrease 15 Supposeyourentouttheofficeblockfor3years thecashflowsareasfollows Trialanderror 16 IRR 12 96 Youcanacceptaprojectiftherateofreturnexceedstheopportunitycostofcapital 17 Remember TheprojectIRRmeasurestheprofitabilityoftheproject Itisaninternalrateofreturninthesensethatitdependsonlyontheproject sowncashflows Theopportunitycostofcapitalisthestandardfordecidingwhethertoaccepttheproject Itisequaltothereturnofferedbyequivalent riskinvestmentsinthecapitalmarket 18 SomepitfallswiththeinternalrateofreturnruleWhenNPVishigherasthediscountrateincreases aprojectisacceptableonlyifitsinternalrateofreturnislessthantheopportunitycostofcapital 19 Whentherearemultiplechangesinthesignofthecashflows theIRRruledoesnotwork buttheNPVrulealwaysdoes 20 AhighIRRisnotanendinitself Youwantprojectsthatincreasethevalueofthefirm ProjectsthatearnagoodrateofreturnforalongtimeoftenhavehigherNPVsthanthosethatofferhighpercentageratesofreturnbutdieyoung 21 Content NetpresentvalueOtherinvestmentcriteriaMoreexamplesofmutuallyexclusiveprojectsCapitalrationingAlastlook 22 Content NetpresentvalueOtherinvestmentcriteriaMoreexamplesofmutuallyexclusiveprojectsCapitalrationingAlastlook 23 Capitalrationing 资本限额 资本约束Softrationing 资本的软约束Hardrationing 资本的硬约束profitabilityindex 盈利能力指数 24 Capitalrationing limitsetontheamountoffundsavailableforinvestmentSoftrationingisnotimposedbyinvestors butimposedbytopmanagementHardrationingmeansthatthefirmactuallycannotraisethemoneyitneedsThesolutionistopicktheprojectsthatgivethehighestNPVperdoll
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