希拉里对华施展“后院”外交.doc

Hillary Clinton slipped across the border between Hong Kong and Shenzhen this week for a meeting with Dai Bingguo, her Chinese counterpart. One can make too much of these things. But there was something almost symbolic about the US secretary of states back-door entrance into the worlds second most important country.美国国务卿希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)本周跨越香港和深圳的边境，与中国国务委员戴秉国会晤。人们对此的解读可能过多。但这位美国国务卿通过“后门”进入这个全球第二重要的国家，似乎具有某种象征意义。Washington is seeking to re-establish a stronger presence in the Asia Pacific region, a part of the world relatively neglected by the former administration of George W. Bush. The US wants the regions trade and diplomatic relations to be run along international the cynic might say American lines. But times have changed. Business is increasingly conducted on Chinas terms. When, for example, Mrs Clinton told an Asian security gathering in Vietnam last year that the US was happy to mediate in disputes between China and its neighbours in the South China Sea, Beijing pushed back angrily. The US, though still a huge military, diplomatic and economic presence in the region, cannot assert its interests as forthrightly as it once could.美国正寻求在亚太地区重建更为强大的影响力，这一地区在乔治?W布什(George W. Bush)主政时期遭到相对忽视。美国希望该地区的贸易和外交关系符合国际准则（爱挖苦的人可能会说是美国准则）。但时代已变。该地区事务在越来越大程度上正按照中国的条件开展。例如，希拉里去年在越南的一次亚洲安全会议上表示，美国乐于在中国及其南海邻国之间的争议中担任调停角色，对此中国政府作出愤怒反弹。尽管美国在亚太地区的军事、外交和经济方面仍具有重大影响力，但美国无法像以前那样直截了当地维护其利益。Washingtons strategy is to try to slip back stealthily into the heart of Asia Pacific without ruffling Chinese feathers. It is a tall order. A hint of this delicate policy objective was on display in a speech Mrs Clinton gave in Hong Kong this week just before she poked her toe gingerly into mainland China. Entitled “Principles for Prosperity in the Asia-Pacific”, the address masterfully avoided almost any mention of Beijing even though China lurked in the shadows. In apparent deference to Beijing, she even trod carefully in her remarks about Hong Kong, avoiding any reference to its frustrated progress towards a more genuine democracy.美国的战略是，在不惹恼中国的情况下悄悄返回亚太地区的核心。这是一个难以实现的目标。在希拉里战战兢兢地踏上中国内地之前，她本周在香港的一篇演讲暴露了美国这一微妙的政策目标。题为“亚太繁荣的原则”(Principles for Prosperity in the Asia-Pacific)的这篇演讲，巧妙地避免提及中国，即使字里行间说的都是中国。出于对北京方面的尊重，她甚至在谈及香港时都用词谨慎，避免提及香港在走向更真正民主过程中受挫的进展。Much of the speech focused on trade policy. Economics was, she said, “a priority of our foreign policy”. But more strategic themes bristled beneath. The US had “underwritten” Asias rising prosperity since the second world war with its strong commitment to regional security and trade. “We helped Japan and South Korea rebuild, patrolled Asias sea lanes to preserve freedom of navigation, promoted global shipping and supported Chinas membership in the World Trade Organisation,” she said. In case anyone thought she was talking only about the past, she made it clear America intended to pursue similar policies in the future. “We are a resident power in Asia not only a diplomatic or military power, but a resident economic power, and we are here to stay.”这篇演讲的很多内容都聚焦于贸易政策。她表示，经济是“我国外交政策的一个重点”，但潜台词中有不少更具战略性的主题。二战后，美国对亚洲安全和贸易做出坚定承诺，“保障”了亚洲的日趋繁荣。她表示：“我们曾帮助日本和韩国重建，我们曾巡逻于亚洲的海上航道，以保护航行自由，我们曾推动全球航运，还支持中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)。”或许有人认为，她只是在谈论过去，但希拉里明确表示，美国有意在未来实行类似的政策。“我们是亚洲的一支常驻力量，不仅是一支外交或军事力量，还是一支常驻经济力量，我们会留在这里。”But how will Washington shape regional rules when China has emerged as the ascendant power? In a version of the “responsible stakeholder” notion developed by Robert Zoellick, former deputy secretary of state, part of her answer is to bind Asia in general and China in particular into a rules-based trading system. “We must reach agreement on the rules and principles that will anchor our economic relationships in the coming decades,” Mrs Clinton said.然而，在中国崛起成为一支新兴强国之际，美国将如何影响区域规则？参照美国前助理国务卿罗伯特?佐利克(Robert Zoellick)提出的“负责任的利益相关者”这一理念，她的部分答案是让整个亚洲尤其是中国融入一个基于规则的贸易体系。希拉里表示：“我们必须就规则和原则达成一致，为未来几十年我们的经济关系奠定基础。”Getting China into the WTO was part of that strategy. But there is much grit in the wheel. Part of the problem is the way in which Asias web of trade pacts has developed. Mrs Clinton called them a “hodgepodge”. They certainly do not look like the consistent, rules-based arrangement Washington advocates. The 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations is the most coherent trade bloc in a region that has signed no fewer than 100 bilateral trade deals in a decade. In January, Asean concluded a free-trade agreement with Beijing, giving Chinese companies preferential access to its market of 600m people. The US is outside looking in.让中国加入WTO是这一战略的一部分。但这方面存在很多问题。其中一些问题涉及亚洲贸易协定网络形成的方式。希拉里将这些贸易协定称为“大杂烩”。它们看上去肯定不像是美国所支持的那些一致且基于规则的协议。拥有10个成员国的东盟(ASEAN)是该地区最有凝聚力的贸易集团；10年来，亚太地区已签订不少于100项贸易协定。今年1月，东盟与中国达成一项自由贸易协定，这让中国企业以优惠条件进入这个规模达6亿人的市场。美国正作为局外人旁观。Washingtons own regional trade policy is in something of a shambles. The US signed a free trade agreement with South Korea in 2007, but Congress has yet to ratify it. The sprawling 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group, of which the US is a core member, is years away from concluding a free-trade deal. Mrs Clinton appears to be putting more hope in a nine-member sub-group of Apec including Australia, Chile, Singapore and the US to conclude a separate free-trade arrangement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But that mini-club wont have much sway without Japan. Even if Japan by which I mean Japanese farmers can be persuaded to join, the TPP is a pretty small acorn from which to grow a region-wide tree.美国自己的区域贸易政策有些混乱。美国曾在2007年与韩国签订自由贸易协定，但至今仍未获得美国国会的批准。由21个成员国组成的庞大的亚太经合组织(APEC)美国是APEC核心成员国距离达成自贸协定还有很多年。希拉里似乎把更多希望寄予APEC 9个成员国组成的一个小集团包括澳大利亚、智利、新加坡和美国达成单独的自由贸易协定，即泛太平洋伙伴关系协定(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)。但如果没有日本参加，这一小型俱乐部的影响力不会很大。即便日本（我这里的意思是指日本农民）被说服加入该组织，TPP也只是一粒小种子，难以长成一棵区域性的大树。In China, Washington often looks powerless to prevent practices it considers unfair. Without naming Beijing as the culprit, Mrs Clinton listed some of the difficulties: closed procurement policies, abuse of intellectual property and preferential treatment, including cheap funding, for state-owned enterprises. “Fairness sustains faith in the system,” she scolded. “That faith is difficult to sustain when companies are forced to trade away their intellectual property just to enter.”对于中国，美国往往看上去无力阻止它所认为的不公平做法。希拉里没有对中国指名道姓，但她列出了几个难题：封闭的采购政策、侵犯知识产权和对国企的优惠待遇，包括廉价融资。“公平会保持对体系的信任，”她带着训斥的口吻说，“如