商务英语课件ch03 d.ppt

4 1 IntroductionToBusiness4thEdition Chapter3AssessingEconomicConditions管理学院市场学系吴德亮 Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 2 BusinessEnvironment Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 3 LearningObjectives Identifymacroeconomicfactorsthataffectbusinessperformance Explainhowmarketpricesaredetermined Explainhowthegovernmentinfluenceseconomicconditions 4 4 AssessingEconomicConditions Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 5 EconomicConditions Reflectthelevelofproductionandconsumptionforaparticularcountry area orindustryMacroeconomicconditionsOveralleconomicstateofacountryMicroeconomicconditionsFocusonconditionsinaparticularbusinessorindustry Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 6 ImpactofEconomicConditions Economicconditionscanaffect RevenuesofabusinessExpensesofabusinessTotalvalueofabusiness Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 7 ImpactofEconomicConditions Somefirmsaremoresensitivetochangesineconomicconditionsthanothers Demandforfastfooddemandisnotverysensitivetodecliningeconomicconditions Demandfornewautomobilesismoresensitivetoweakeconomicconditionsthanfoodproducts 4 8 HarleyDavidsonExample Demandformotorcyclesisstrongerwhen Theeconomyisstrong Customershavemoreincometobuymotorcycles HighdemandforHarleyDavidson smotorcycles Generatesgreaterrevenue Improvescompanyperformance 4 9 HarleyDavidsonExample Demandformotorcyclesisweakerwhen Theeconomyisweak Customershavelessincometobuymotorcycles LowerdemandforHarleyDavidson smotorcycles Generateslessrevenue Weakenscompanyperformance 4 10 HarleyDavidsonExample HarleyDavidsontriestopredictdemandsoitwillhaveasufficientsupplyofmotorcyclestomeetfuturedemand Demandformotorcyclesdependsoneconomicconditions Numberofmotorcyclesproducedalsodependsoneconomicconditions Governmentpoliciesalsoaffecteconomicconditions 4 11 HarleyDavidsonExample HarleyDavidsonmustdetermine Howprevailingeconomicconditionswillaffectthedemandforthemotorcyclesitproduces Howprevailinggovernmentpolicieswillaffectthedemandforitsmotorcycles 4 12 IMacroeconomicEffects Theperformanceofmostfirmsdependsonthreemacroeconomicfactors EconomicgrowthChangesinthegenerallevelofeconomicactivityInflationIncreasesingenerallevelofpricesoverspecificperiodoftimeInterestratesChangesinthecostofborrowedmoney 4 13 1 EconomicGrowth Whenthechangeinthegenerallevelofeconomicactivityishigherthannormal TotalincomelevelofallU S workersisrelativelyhigh Thereisahighervolumeofspendingonproductsandservices Firmsthatsellproductsandservicesshouldgeneratehigherrevenues 4 14 Recession OccurswheneconomicgrowthisnegativefortwoconsecutivequartersLowersdemandforproductsandservicesReducestherevenueoffirmsthatsellproductsandservices Cancausefirmstoshutdownfactoriesinresponsetoloweconomicgrowth GeneralMotorsFord 4 15 IndicatorsofEconomicGrowth GrossDomesticProduct GDP TheleveloftotalproductionofproductsandservicesintheeconomyTotalmarketvalueofallfinalproductsandservicesproducedintheU S AggregateExpendituresTotalamountofexpenditures 4 16 IndicatorsofEconomicGrowth IntheU S theseindicatorsarecloselyrelated Highlevelofconsumerspendingreflectsalargedemandforproductsandservices Totalproductionleveldependsontotaldemandforproductsandservices 4 17 AlternativeIndicatorsofEconomicGrowth UnemploymentlevelIndustrialproductionlevelNewhousingstartsPersonalincomelevel 4 18 UnemploymentLevels FrictionalunemploymentPeoplewhoarebetweenjobs SeasonalunemploymentPeoplewhoseservicesarenotneededduringsomeseasons CyclicalunemploymentPeopleunemployedduetopooreconomicconditions Bestindicatorofeconomicconditions StructuralunemploymentPeoplewhodonothaveadequateskills Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 19 2 Inflation Anincreaseinthegenerallevelofpricesofproductsandservicesoveraspecifiedperiodoftime Estimatedbymeasuringpercentagechangesintheconsumerpriceindex CPI CPIisamarketbasketofpricesonawidevarietyofconsumerproducts Groceryproducts housing gasoline medicalservices electricity etc Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 20 ImpactofInflation Canaffectacompany soperatingexpensesCanincreasecostofsuppliesandmaterials Canimpactindexedwages laborcost Higherinflationcancauselargeincreasesinoperatingexpenses Canaffectacompany srevenuesCompaniesmaychargehigherpricestocompensatefortheirhigherexpenses Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 21 Cost PushInflation Occurswhenfirmsmustchargehigherpricesbecausetheirproduction input costsarehigher Changeinpriceofoilimpactsgasolinepricesandtransportationcosts Changeinaluminumpricesimpactspackagingcostofbeerproduction Changeinpulppricesimpactsthecostofpapertowelproduction Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 22 Demand PullInflation Occurswhenproductandservicespricesarepulledupbyconsumerdemand Strongconsumerdemandcancauseshortagesintheproductionofproducts Firmsthatanticipateshortagesmayincreasepricesfortheirproducts Strongconsumerdemandmayputpressureonwagesandreduceunemployment Firmsmayincreasepricestorecoverhigheroperatingexpenses Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 23 3 InterestRates RepresentthecostofborrowingmoneyFirm sinterestexpenseisbasedonmarketinterestratesandcanhavesignificantimpactonafirm sprofitability Firmsmaypostponeexpansionandotherprojectswheninterestratesaretoohigh Interestratesalsoimpactafirm srevenueTheincreasedcostoffinancingnewhomesreducesdemandfornewhomes Revenuesforconstructionfirmsandequipmentmanufacturersalsodecline 4 24 businessonline Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 25 IIMarketPriceDetermination Marketpriceofaproductisinfluencedby ThetotaldemandforthatproductbyallcustomersSupplyofthatproductproducedbyfirmsTheinteractionbetweendemandandsupplydeterminesthemarketprice 4 26 DemandandSupply Demandschedule需求曲线Indicatesthequantityoftheproductthatwouldbedemandedbycustomersateachpossibleprice Quantitydemandedishigherwhenthepriceislower QuantityDemanded Qd 有效需求 4 27 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisDeterminedbySupplyandDemand Exhibit4 6a 4 28 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisDeterminedbySupplyandDemand Exhibit4 6b Copyright 2004South Western Allrightsreserved 4 29 DemandandSupply cont d Supplyschedule供给曲线Indicatesthequantityoftheproductthatwouldbesupplied produced bymanufacturersateachpossibleprice Quantitysupplied produced ishigherwhenthepriceishigher Quantitysupplied Qs 有效供给 4 30 InteractionofSupplyandDemand InteractionofdemandandsupplyschedulesdeterminesthemarketpriceSurplus 过剩 thequantitysuppliedbyfirmsismorethanthequantitydemandedbycustomers Shortage 短缺 thequantitysuppliedbyfirmsislessthanthequantitydemandedbycustomers Equilibriumprice 均衡价格 occurswhenquantitiessuppliedanddemandedareequal 4 31 ImpactofShiftsinDemand Changingconditionscancauseademandscheduleorsupplyscheduleforaspecificproducttochange Changestheequilibriumpriceofaproduct Increasedproductpopularity demand resultsinashortageoftheproduct Theshortageiscorrectedwhenthepriceisincreasedtothelevelatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded 4 32 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinDemand Exhibit4 7 4 33 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinDemand Exhibit4 7 4 34 ImpactofShiftsinSupply Changeinsupplycanimpacttheequilibriumpriceoftheproduct Technologicalimprovementscanleadtoreducedproductioncostscausingfirmstoproducealargersupplyatanygivenprice Thesupplyschedulechangesandyieldsasurpluswhichcanbesoldonlybyloweringtheprice Thesurplusiseliminatedwhenthepricedecreasestoalevelatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded 4 35 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinSupply Exhibit4 8 4 36 HowtheEquilibriumPriceisAffectedbyaChangeinSupply Exhibit4 8 4 37 FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices ConsumerincomeDeterminestheamountofproductsandservicesindividualscanpurchaseHighlevelsofeconomicgrowthresultinmoreincomeforconsumers Increaseddemandcausesdemandscheduleshiftsandpriceincreases Whenconsumerincomedeclines Demanddecreasesandcreatesasurplusasthedemandscheduleshiftsandpricesdecrease 4 38 FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices Changesinconsumertastesandpreferences ImpactthequantityofproductsandservicesdemandedbyconsumersIncreaseddemandleadstopriceincrease Decreaseddemandleadstopricedecrease 4 39 FactorsInfluencingMarketPrices ChangeinproductionexpensesAdecreaseinexpensescanleadtoincreaseinquantitysuppliedandcreateasurplus Firmsmustlowerpricesinordertoeliminatethesurplus Anincreaseinexpensescanleadtodecreaseinquantitysuppliedandcreateashortage Firmscanincreasepricesuntilshortageiscorrected 4 40 III owthegovernmentinfluenceseconomicconditions MonetarypolicyMadebytheFederalReserveSystem Fed isthecentralbankoftheU S DecisionsbyFedaboutthemoneysupply Impactinterestrates Impactfirms interestexpenses Impactdemandforproductspurchasedwithborrowedfunds 4 41 Fed sImpactonInterestRates MaintainsfundsoutsidethebankingsystemthatarenotloanabletofirmsorindividualsUsedtobuyTreasurysecuritiesheldbyindividualsandcompaniesProvideindividualsandfirmswithnewfundsfordepositincommercialbanksDepositsincreasethemoneysupplyandthesupplyofloanablefunds Shouldresultindecreasedinterestratesandstimulateeconomicgrowth 4 42 Fed sImpactonInterestRates Fedcanpullfundsoutofcommercialbanksandotherfinancialinstitutionstoreducethemoneysupply Reducesthesupplyoffundsavailabletolendtoborrowers shortage causing Interestratestoincrease Individualsandcompaniestoborrowless Spendinglevelstodecrease Thelevelofinflationtodecline 4 43 FiscalPolicy Howthefederalgovernmentsetstaxratesandspendsmoney PersonalincometaxratesReducedtaxratesproducehigherafter taxincomesthatstimulatespendingandincreasedemandforproductsandservices CorporatetaxesImpactsafter taxearningsExcisetaxesTaxesonparticularproductsthatincreasepricesconsumerspayfortheseproducts 4 44 FiscalPolicy SetstheamountsoffederaltaxrevenuegovernmentandfederalspendingFederalbudgetdeficitOccurswhenfederalspendingexceedsfederaltaxesandotherrevenuecollectedbythefederalgovernment Governmentborrowingtomakeupthedifferencecreateshigherdemandforloanablefundsandcandriveupinterestrates 4 45 ExampleofHowaBudgetDeficitOccurs Exhibit4 9 4 46 HowGovernmentPoliciesAffectBusinessPerformance Exhibit4 10 4 47 FederalGovernment sDilemma Arestrictivemonetaryorfiscalpolicycanbeusedto MaintainlowrateofeconomicgrowthPreventinflationarypressurecausedbyexcessivedemandCanalsocreateunemploymentAlsorequiresatrade off 4 48 ChapterSummary Firmperformancedependsonthreemacroeconomicfactors economicgrowth inflation andinterestrates Demandandsupplyconditionsdeterminemarketprices Federalgovernmentusesmonetaryandfiscalpoliciestoinfluencemacroeconomicconditions 4 49 ScanningMacroenvironmentalconditionsforTh