曼昆《经济学原理》(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件——30money_inflation.ppt

30 MoneyGrowthandInflation TheMeaningofMoney Moneyisthesetofassetsinaneconomythatpeopleregularlyusetobuygoodsandservicesfromotherpeople THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION Inflationisanincreaseintheoveralllevelofprices Hyperinflationisanextraordinarilyhighrateofinflation THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION Inflation HistoricalAspectsOverthepast60years priceshaverisenonaverageabout5percentperyear Deflation meaningdecreasingaverageprices occurredintheU S inthenineteenthcentury HyperinflationreferstohighratesofinflationsuchasGermanyexperiencedinthe1920s THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION Inflation HistoricalAspectsInthe1970spricesroseby7percentperyear Duringthe1990s pricesroseatanaveragerateof2percentperyear THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION Thequantitytheoryofmoneyisusedtoexplainthelong rundeterminantsofthepricelevelandtheinflationrate Inflationisaneconomy widephenomenonthatconcernsthevalueoftheeconomy smediumofexchange Whentheoverallpricelevelrises thevalueofmoneyfalls MoneySupply MoneyDemand andMonetaryEquilibrium ThemoneysupplyisapolicyvariablethatiscontrolledbytheFed Throughinstrumentssuchasopen marketoperations theFeddirectlycontrolsthequantityofmoneysupplied MoneySupply MoneyDemand andMonetaryEquilibrium Moneydemandhasseveraldeterminants includinginterestratesandtheaveragelevelofpricesintheeconomy MoneySupply MoneyDemand andMonetaryEquilibrium Peopleholdmoneybecauseitisthemediumofexchange Theamountofmoneypeoplechoosetoholddependsonthepricesofgoodsandservices MoneySupply MoneyDemand andMonetaryEquilibrium Inthelongrun theoveralllevelofpricesadjuststothelevelatwhichthedemandformoneyequalsthesupply Figure1MoneySupply MoneyDemand andtheEquilibriumPriceLevel Copyright 2004South Western Quantityof Money Valueof Money 1 P Price Level P 0 1 Low High High Low 1 2 1 4 3 4 1 1 33 2 4 Figure2TheEffectsofMonetaryInjection Copyright 2004South Western Quantityof Money Valueof Money 1 P Price Level P 0 1 Low High High Low 1 2 1 4 3 4 1 1 33 2 4 THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION TheQuantityTheoryofMoneyHowthepricelevelisdeterminedandwhyitmightchangeovertimeiscalledthequantitytheoryofmoney Thequantityofmoneyavailableintheeconomydeterminesthevalueofmoney Theprimarycauseofinflationisthegrowthinthequantityofmoney TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality Nominalvariablesarevariablesmeasuredinmonetaryunits Realvariablesarevariablesmeasuredinphysicalunits TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality AccordingtoHumeandothers realeconomicvariablesdonotchangewithchangesinthemoneysupply Accordingtotheclassicaldichotomy differentforcesinfluencerealandnominalvariables Changesinthemoneysupplyaffectnominalvariablesbutnotrealvariables TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality Theirrelevanceofmonetarychangesforrealvariablesiscalledmonetaryneutrality VelocityandtheQuantityEquation Thevelocityofmoneyreferstothespeedatwhichthetypicaldollarbilltravelsaroundtheeconomyfromwallettowallet VelocityandtheQuantityEquation V P Y MWhere V velocityP thepricelevelY thequantityofoutputM thequantityofmoney VelocityandtheQuantityEquation Rewritingtheequationgivesthequantityequation M V P Y VelocityandtheQuantityEquation Thequantityequationrelatesthequantityofmoney M tothenominalvalueofoutput P Y VelocityandtheQuantityEquation Thequantityequationshowsthatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneyinaneconomymustbereflectedinoneofthreeothervariables thepricelevelmustrise thequantityofoutputmustrise orthevelocityofmoneymustfall Figure3NominalGDP theQuantityofMoney andtheVelocityofMoney Copyright 2004South Western Indexes 1960 100 2 000 1 000 500 0 1 500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NominalGDP Velocity M2 VelocityandtheQuantityEquation TheEquilibriumPriceLevel InflationRate andtheQuantityTheoryofMoneyThevelocityofmoneyisrelativelystableovertime WhentheFedchangesthequantityofmoney itcausesproportionatechangesinthenominalvalueofoutput P Y Becausemoneyisneutral moneydoesnotaffectoutput CASESTUDY MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflations Hyperinflationisinflationthatexceeds50percentpermonth Hyperinflationoccursinsomecountriesbecausethegovernmentprintstoomuchmoneytopayforitsspending Figure4MoneyandPricesDuringFourHyperinflations Copyright 2004South Western a Austria b Hungary Moneysupply Pricelevel Index Jan 1921 100 Index July1921 100 Pricelevel 100 000 10 000 1 000 100 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921 Moneysupply 100 000 10 000 1 000 100 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921 Figure4MoneyandPricesDuringFourHyperinflations Copyright 2004South Western c Germany 1 Index Jan 1921 100 d Poland 100 000 000 000 000 1 000 000 10 000 000 000 1 000 000 000 000 100 000 000 10 000 100 Pricelevel 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921 Pricelevel Index Jan 1921 100 100 10 000 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 1 000 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921 TheInflationTax Whenthegovernmentraisesrevenuebyprintingmoney itissaidtolevyaninflationtax Aninflationtaxislikeataxoneveryonewhoholdsmoney Theinflationendswhenthegovernmentinstitutesfiscalreformssuchascutsingovernmentspending TheFisherEffect TheFishereffectreferstoaone to oneadjustmentofthenominalinterestratetotheinflationrate AccordingtotheFishereffect whentherateofinflationrises thenominalinterestraterisesbythesameamount Therealinterestratestaysthesame Figure5TheNominalInterestRateandtheInflationRate Copyright 2004South Western Percent peryear 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0 3 6 9 12 15 THECOSTSOFINFLATION AFallinPurchasingPower Inflationdoesnotinitselfreducepeople srealpurchasingpower THECOSTSOFINFLATION ShoeleathercostsMenucostsRelativepricevariabilityTaxdistortionsConfusionandinconvenienceArbitraryredistributionofwealth ShoeleatherCosts Shoeleathercostsaretheresourceswastedwheninflationencouragespeopletoreducetheirmoneyholdings Inflationreducestherealvalueofmoney sopeoplehaveanincentivetominimizetheircashholdings ShoeleatherCosts Lesscashrequiresmorefrequenttripstothebanktowithdrawmoneyfrominterest bearingaccounts Theactualcostofreducingyourmoneyholdingsisthetimeandconvenienceyoumustsacrificetokeeplessmoneyonhand Also extratripstothebanktaketimeawayfromproductiveactivities MenuCosts Menucostsarethecostsofadjustingprices Duringinflationarytimes itisnecessarytoupdatepricelistsandotherpostedprices Thisisaresource consumingprocessthattakesawayfromotherproductiveactivities Relative PriceVariabilityandtheMisallocationofResources Inflationdistortsrelativeprices Consumerdecisionsaredistorted andmarketsarelessabletoallocateresourcestotheirbestuse Inflation InducedTaxDistortion Inflationexaggeratesthesizeofcapitalgainsandincreasesthetaxburdenonthistypeofincome Withprogressivetaxation capitalgainsaretaxedmoreheavily Inflation InducedTaxDistortion Theincometaxtreatsthenominalinterestearnedonsavingsasincome eventhoughpartofthenominalinterestratemerelycompensatesforinflation Theafter taxrealinterestratefalls makingsavinglessattractive Table1HowInflationRaisestheTaxBurdenonSaving Copyright 2004South Western ConfusionandInconvenience WhentheFedincreasesthemoneysupplyandcreatesinflation iterodestherealvalueoftheunitofaccount Inflationcausesdollarsatdifferenttimestohavedifferentrealvalues Therefore withrisingprices itismoredifficulttocomparerealrevenues costs andprofitsovertime ASpecialCostofUnexpectedInflation ArbitraryRedistributionofWealth Unexpectedinflationredistributeswealthamongthepopulationinawaythathasnothingtodowitheithermeritorneed Theseredistributionsoccurbecausemanyloansintheeconomyarespecifiedintermsoftheunitofaccount money Summary Theoveralllevelofpricesinaneconomyadjuststobringmoneysupplyandmoneydemandintobalance Whenthecentralbankincreasesthesupplyofmoney itcausesthepriceleveltorise Persistentgrowthinthequantityofmoneysuppliedleadstocontinuinginflation Summary Theprincipleofmoneyneutralityassertsthatchangesinthequantityofm