英语学习7937351042.doc

欧洲用杠杆撬动灾难 How Europe is now leveraging for a catastropheIt is time to prepare for the unthinkable: there is now a significant probability the euro will not survive in its current form. This is not because I am predicting the failure by European leaders to agree a deal. In fact, I believe they will. My concern is not about failure to agree, but the consequences of an agreement. I am writing this column before the results of Sundays European summit were known. It appeared that a final agreement would not be reached until Wednesday. Under consideration has been a leveraged European financial stability facility, perhaps accompanied by new instruments from the International Monetary Fund.眼下已到了做最坏打算的时候：欧元很可能无法以目前的形式存续下来。这并不是因为我预言欧洲领导人将无法达成某种协议。实际上，我认为他们会达成协议。我担心的并不是达不成协议，而是协议所带来的后果。在写这篇专栏文章时，我并不知道周日欧盟峰会的结果。看起来，最终协议要到周三才能达成。考虑之中的方案是一种杠杆化的欧洲金融稳定安排(European Financial Stability Facility，简称EFSF)，或许再辅之以国际货币基金组织(IMF)的某种新工具。A leveraged EFSF is attractive to politicians for the same reason that subprime mortgages once appeared attractive to borrowers. Leverage can have different economic functions, but in these cases it simply disguises a lack of money. The idea is to turn the EFSF into a monoline insurer for sovereign bonds. It is worth recalling that the role of those monolines during the bubble was to insure toxic credit products. They ended up as a crisis amplifier.杠杆化的EFSF之所以对政治家们颇具吸引力，其原因与当初次级抵押贷款对借款人具有吸引力如出一辙。杠杆有一些不同的经济功能，但在这些例子中，它都只不过在掩盖资金匮乏的事实。其想法是，把EFSF变成主权债券的单一险种保险人。值得回忆的是，在泡沫时期，这种单一险种保险人的作用是为有毒信贷产品提供保险。而它们最终成为了危机的放大器。Technically, the EFSF monoline insurer would provide a first-loss tranche insurance for government bonds up to an agreed percentage. It sounds like a neat idea, until the recipients of the insurance realise their sovereign bonds have turned into hard-to-value structured products. One of the factors that will make them hard to value is the incalculable probability that France might lose its triple A rating. In that case, the EFSF would automatically lose its own triple A rating which is derived from that of its guarantors. The EFSFs yields would then rise, and the value of the insurance would be greatly reduced. The construction could ultimately collapse.从技术角度讲，EFSF作为单一险种保险人，能够在协议比例的范围内，为政府债券提供一种最初亏损额度保险。这听起来像是个不错的主意，但接下来就不是那么回事了：被保险国将发现，他们的主权债务变成了难以估值的结构性产品。估值变得困难的一个原因是，无法估算法国丧失3A评级的可能性。在这种情况下，EFSF也会自动失去3A评级，因为这一评级是由它的担保人带来的。于是，EFSF保险的收益率将上升，保险的估值也会大大降低。整个方案可能最终崩盘。Leveraging also massively increases the probability of a loss for the triple A-rated member states, who ultimately provide the insurance. If a recipient of the guarantee were to impose a relatively small haircut say 20 per cent the EFSF and its guarantors would take the entire hit. Under current arrangements, they would only lose their share of the haircut.杠杆化还会极大增加3A成员国蒙受损失的可能性，保险最终是由它们提供的。如果某个被保险的国家出现幅度相对较小的债务减值比如说20%EFSF及其担保国将承担全部损失。而按照目前的安排，它们只需要承担自己那一部分损失。The simple reason why there can be no technical quick fix is that the crisis is, at its heart, political. The triple A-rated countries have left no doubt that they are willing to support the system, but only up to a certain point. And we are well beyond that point now. If Germany continued to reject an increase in its own liabilities, debt monetisation through the European Central Bank and eurobonds, the crisis would logically end in a break-up. There is no way the member states of the eurozones periphery can sustainably service their private and public debts, and adjust their economies at the same time.在技术上不可能有快速解决方案，原因很简单：从本质上来讲，此次危机是一场政治危机。3A国家无疑愿意为欧元体系提供支持，但这只是在一定范围之内。而我们现在已远远超出了这个范围。如果德国继续拒绝提高自身债务，即通过欧洲央行(ECB)和欧元债券进行债务货币化，危机自然而然会以（欧元区）解体告终。欧元区外围国家不可能在调整自身经济的同时，还能够持续地履行私人及公共债务。Each of Germanys red lines has some justification on its own. But together they are toxic for the eurozone. The politics is not getting any easier. The behaviour of the Bundestag underlines the political nature of the crisis. Last months ruling of the Germanys constitutional court strengthened the role of parliament. But it also reduced the autonomy of the German chancellor, who now has to seek prior approval by the Bundestags budget committee before negotiating in Brussels. This power shift will not prevent agreements, such as the one currently negotiated, but it will make it harder to co-ordinate policy in the European Council on an ongoing basis.德国的每一条“红线”都有其合理性。但合在一起则对欧元区构成危害。政治上一点没有松动。德国联邦议院(Bundestag)的行为，凸显出了此次危机的政治本质。德国立宪法院上月的裁定加强了议会的权力。但它同时削弱了德国总理的自主权，如今，德国总理在布鲁塞尔谈判之前，必须事先获得联邦议院预算委员会的批准。这种权力的转移不会阻止协议的达成，就如目前谈判中的协议，但它会加大欧洲理事会(European Council)连续进行政策协调的难度。The way eurozone leaders have been handling the crisis ultimately vindicates the German constitutional courts conservatism in its definition of what constitutes a functioning democracy. Policy co-ordination among heads of state is both undemocratic and ineffective. A monetary union may require more than just a eurobond and a small fiscal union. It may require a formal, if partial, transfer of sovereignty to the centre that includes the rights to levy certain taxes, impose regulation in product, labour and financial markets, and to set fiscal rules for member states.欧元区领导人一直以来应对此次危机的方式最终证明：德国立宪法院在定义什么构成有效民主时奉行保守主义是正确的。国家领导人之间的政策协调既是不民主的，也是无效的。一个货币联盟所要求的，可能不仅仅是欧元债券和小规模的财政联盟。它可能要求主权向中央的正式移交即使是部分的，这包括征收某些税种，对产品、劳动力和金融市场进行监管，以及为成员国制定财政规则的权利。Under normal circumstances, European electorates would not accept such a massive transfer of sovereignty. I would not completely exclude the possibility that they might accept it if the alternative was a breakdown of the euro. Even then, I would not bet on such an outcome. Current policy is leading us straight towards this bifurcation point, which may only be a few weeks or months away.正常情况下，欧洲选民不会接受主权如此大规模的转移。我不会完全排除一种可能：即如果他们面临的另一种选择是欧元区解体， 他们或许会接受。即使在那种情况下，我也不会押注于这样一个结果。当前的政策正把我们直接带向这个分界点，或许只须再过几周或几个月，它就会到来。The biggest danger now is the large number of politicians drawing red lines in the sand, and the lack of even a single EU authority willing and capable of cutting through them. Given the multiple uncertainties, there is no way to attach any precise probabilities to any scenarios. But clearly, the chance of a catastrophic accident is bigger than merely non-trivial. The main consequences of leverage will be to increase that probability.当前最大的危险是，众多政治家纷纷划定自己的“红线”，而欧盟甚至没有一个统一的当局愿意（也有能力）突破这些局限。由于存在多重不确定性，根本不可能对所有可能的情况，分别赋予准确的可能性。但很明显，发生灾难性后果的可能性，比发生一般严重后果的可能性更大。而杠杆化带来的主要后果，将是加大这一可能性。译者/方舟乔布斯大吃创新蛋糕 Innovation works in mysterious ways最大 较大 默认 较小 最小 Was it salesmanship or engineering? Creativity or ruthlessness? Or was Steve Jobs simply gifted with vision and impeccable taste? Whatever the true source of his success, there was more than a touch of genius about Jobs. Even his side project, Pixar, was an astounding achievement. His first love, Apple, he built from nothing and then dragged back from the brink to make it the most valuable company in the world. No wonder so many of us felt sad at the news of his passing: surely he had more to offer.是推销艺术还是工程实力？是天才创意抑或冷酷无情？又或者仅仅因为史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)天生就具有远见卓识和无可挑剔的品味？无论乔布斯取得成功的真正原因是什么，他的天才能力可不止一点。甚至他的“副业”皮克斯(Pixar)都取得了令人瞩目的成就。苹果(Apple)是乔布斯的初恋，他白手起家创立了这家公司，后来又从悬崖边上把它拉了回来并打造成为全球最有价值的公司。也难怪我们许多人对乔布斯的去世感到难过他要活着，准能给我们带来更多惊喜。I spend my life in front of a computer, and that life is better because of what Steve Jobs created. But heres the strange thing: Ive never owned an Apple product for longer than the two weeks it took to give up and send it back. (Apples customer returns department is impeccable, by the way.) My Macbook Air? Glorious hardware, but fussy software and a counterintuitive interface. My iPad? Beautiful but also heavy, not too fond of wireless, and refused even to turn on until I did some most impertinent things to my Windows laptop.我每天的生活都是在电脑前度过的，是乔布斯的诸多创造让我的生活更美好。但奇怪之处在于：我拥有苹果产品的时间从没有超过两周，两周时间已足以让我放弃，并把它退还给苹果公司了。（顺便说一下，苹果公司的顾客退货部也是让人无可挑剔！）我的Macbook Air？硬件炫极了，可软件有些花里胡哨，界面也不够直观。我的iPad？华丽得很，可它太重了，不太喜欢无线网络，而且直到我在Windows笔记本电脑上进行了一些极其荒谬的操作之后，它才可以开机。Apple never made a penny from me. Why, then, do I say that Steve Jobs improved my life? Its because I am surrounded by technology that looks good and works well because others followed where Apple led. Without Apples refinement and popularisation of the WIMP environment (window, icon, menu and pointer), how long would we have waited for a graphic interface from Microsoft and how awful might it have been? Its hard to imagine Bill Gates would have shown much interest in fonts without Apples beautiful typography. Beyond desktop computers, theres a similar story to tell: I own an Android phone that owes more than a passing debt to the iPhone; Im still waiting to own a Windows machine to rival the Mac Air; and every tablet in the world bows to the iPad.苹果从来没有从我身上赚到过一分钱。那么，为什么我要说史蒂夫乔布斯改善了我的生活呢？理由是，我被各种外观出色效率出众的技术所围绕，正是因为其它公司都在追随苹果的脚步。若不是苹果对WIMP（窗口、图标、菜单和光标）环境的改进和推广，我们不知要多久才能等到微软(Microsoft)的图形界面那会是多么可怕的一种情形啊！很难想象，要不是因为苹果的漂亮字体，比尔盖茨(Bill Gates)会对字体产生多大的兴趣。除了台式机以外，我还有类似的经历告诉大家：我有一部Android手机，它欠iPhone的可不止一星半点；我还在期待可以拥有一台能与Mac Air相媲美的Windows笔记本；还有，世界上的每一台平板电脑都应该向iPad致以敬意。To an economist the lesson is obvious: innovative profits are imperfectly appropriable. In more user-friendly language: when an entrepreneur bakes a cake, he only gets to keep a thin slice for himself. This is worrying if it discourages innovation, and in some industries innovators may be discouraged by the prospect that they must take big risks and sink big costs while society sits back and hopes to reap the benefits. Yet in the computer industry, plenty of entrepreneurs seem happy to take risks for the prospect of a thin slice of the social benefits.对于经济学家而言，其中的教训是显而易见的：创新收益的分配不尽合理。换成更通俗的话讲，一位企业家烤熟了蛋糕之后，自己只能保住薄薄的一块。不由让人担忧这是否会阻碍创新；在某些行业，创新者想到自己必须承担巨大的风险并投入巨大的成本，而全社会坐享其成，希望凭空分得收益，可能会感觉灰心丧气。但在计算机行业，似乎还有数不清的企业家乐于为了那微小的一份社会收益而冒险。A discussion paper published in 2004 by the economist William Nordhaus attempts to establish exactly how thin that slice is. Nordhaus reckons that innovators capture a “minuscule” 2.2 per cent of the total social benefit of their innovations. The other 97.8 per cent goes to consumers, partly because competitors soon catch on, and partly because no company, even a monopolist, can charge each consumer a price reflecting her individual willingness to pay.经济学家威廉诺德豪斯(William Nordhaus)于2004年发表的一篇论文，试图准确地计算出这一薄片到底有多薄。诺德豪斯认为，创新者在其发明所产生的社会总收益中仅能收获“微不足道的”2.2%。其它97.8%则造福了消费者，部分原因是竞争对手们很快就赶了上来，还有部分原因是没有一家公司、哪怕是垄断企业，向每位消费者收取的价格能够与其个人愿意付出的数额相符。Professor Nordhauss estimate can be regarded as, at best, an educated guess, partly because Nordhaus is only able to focus on innovations which lead to lower production costs and thus lower prices. If thats the metric, developments such as the world wide web or penicillin barely register. Still, I think its safe to say that both Tim Berners-Lee (the web) and Alexander Fleming (penicillin) reaped far less than 2.2 per cent of the total value to society of their insights.诺德豪斯教授的估算充其量可以被看作一种推测，部分原因是他只能够集中研究那些促进生产成本下降、进而降低价格的发明创造。如果那就是衡量标准，万维网(World Wide Web)和盘尼西林(penicillin)等发明勉强说来也算符合。不过，我觉得可以有把握地说，万维网创造者蒂姆伯纳斯-李(Tim Berners-Lee)和盘尼西林的发现者亚历山大弗莱明(Alexander Fleming)从他们的创意想法给社会带来的总价值中收获的份额远远低于2.2%。Was Jobs an exception? Chris Dillow of the Investors Chronicle, who called my attention to the Nordhaus paper, reckons that Jobss gift for branding and design helped Apple retain an unusually large slice of the innovators cake. Perhaps thats true. Apples shareholders have certainly enjoyed a profitable few years. But the greater benefit has flowed to customers and not only the customers of Apple.乔布斯是一个例外吗？使我注意到诺德豪斯论文的是投资者年鉴(Investors Chronicle)的克里斯迪洛(Chris Dillow)。他认为，乔布斯在品牌塑造和设计方面的天分帮助苹果公司从创新者的蛋糕上分得了出奇大的一片。或许他说的对。苹果的股东们近几年无疑赚得盆满钵盈。但更多的收益还是流向了顾客而且不仅仅是苹果的顾客。Tim Harfords latest book is Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure (Little, Brown)蒂姆哈福德的新书名为适者生存：为何失败是成功之母(Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure)，由利特尔-布朗公司(Little, Brown)出版。译者/邢嵬中国房价“几潘” Out of fire, into Pan for Chinese property buyers最大 较大 默认 较小 最小 Chinese real estate developers have discovered an alternative to the renminbi, Chinas currency, as they begin to advertise properties priced in “Pan”.中国房地产开发商发现了一个可以替代人民币的货币单位，他们开始在楼盘广告中用“潘币”标价。The new denomination is in fact a reference to Pan Shiyi, chairman of Soho China and one of the countrys most prominent property tycoons, used in a marketing trick that plays on public frustration with high housing prices.这个新计价单位实际上暗指中国最知名的地产大亨之一SOHO中国(Soho China)董事长潘石屹。这种营销手法利用了民众对高房价的不满。In a microblog post this month, Mr Pan jokingly proposed that Apple should start offering its mobile phones for Rmb1,000 (US$157) each. Such an offer, he said, would endear millions of Chinese to Apple and its recently deceased chairman, Steve Jobs.本月早些时候，在苹果(Apple)董事长史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世后，潘石屹在一条微博中调侃说，苹果应该开始大量生产售价在1000元人民币（合157美元）的iPhone，让更多人用上苹果，这是对乔布斯最好的纪念。Mr Pans call drew an unexpected response from Tang Ruoding, a photojournalist. “When chairman Pan dies one day, could Soho China please also offer houses for Rmb1,000 per square metre, then more than a billion people will remember you,” he said on his own microblog.潘石屹此言激起了摄影师唐若丁出人意料的反应。唐若丁在自己的微博中说：“潘总哪天要也去世了，也请贵公司推出一千一平米的房子吧，十几亿人民都会纪念您。”After both posts went viral, Chinese netizens came up with the idea of the new currency, with one Pan shorthand for Rmb1,000 per square metre.两条微博都广为流传，于是网民们想出了以“一潘”代指“1平方米售价1000元人民币”的主意。“This ridiculing of me is clearly a reflection of peoples dissatisfaction about the high property prices,” said Mr Pan.潘石屹表示：“大家对我的调侃背后是对商品住宅房价太高不满的表现。”This week, the craze spread to the real world. One Beijing developer, Tianjin Jinpu Weiye Realty, began marketing flats in one of its developments priced in Pan.本周，这股狂热开始蔓延到实体世界，北京房地产开发商天津津浦伟业地产有限公司在推广一个楼盘时就以“潘币”标价。Soaring property prices, along with food inflation, have soured the mood of Chinas young, and previously politically disinterested urban middle class.房价飞涨和食品通胀已经激起了中国年轻人、以及过去对政治没什么兴趣的城市中产阶层的强烈不满。“Our governments economic policies are no longer good enough to help us improve our lives. It looks like I will never be able to buy a flat of my own,” said Lei Jin, a young Beijing woman.“政府的经济政策不再足以帮助我们改善生活，看来我是永远也买不起房子了。”北京一位年轻的女子雷瑾（音译）表示。Du Jinsong, an analyst at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, said: “Nationwide, the average price for a flat is now seven times the average annual household income, but in Beijing and Shanghai it is more than 17 times. That compares with about three times in the US.”瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)香港分析师杜劲松表示：“目前就全国而言，一套房子的平均价格是家庭平均年收入的7倍，但在北京和上海，这个比率超过了17倍。相比之下，美国的这个比率是3倍左右。”Mr Pan deleted his original blog post, but to no avail. “Little did I know that after that, people would re-tweet it even more crazily,” he said. “Now that it has come to this new currency, no explanation will make any difference, so I can only keep silent.”潘石屹删除了原微博帖子，但毫无作用。“没想到删了之后，传得更快，现在新的货币单位都出来了，我觉得做任何解释都没用了，只好保持沉默。”译者/何黎Chinas property boom fuels romantic revolutionIf everything had gone to plan Estelle would be about to embark on a flight from her Beijing home to England for her honeymoon. “We thought September was good because after that it gets really cold and rainy,” she says.But now the honeymoon is off. When Estelle and her boyfriend started arranging the wedding, her mother demanded as is common in China that the groom buy the couple an apartment first. With sky-high property prices , that was out of reach. “Now weve put everything on hold and are reviewing our options,” says Estelle. “Maybe we should just get married anyway you have to give love a chance.”The conundrum confronting the 28-year-old brand manager is one many young Chinese are now facing. The present-day interpretation of Confucian traditions, which treat marriage as a union of two families rather than individuals, may require parents to demand a price for their offspring. But with the price of entry rising beyond reach many young Chinese are starting to opt for “naked weddings” instead, embarking on a life of matrimonial bliss without the usual materialistic trappings.The phenomenon has even spawned a hit television soap opera, also called Naked Weddings, which follows a young couple who opt to marry despite parental opposition and without the usual financial accoutrements. It topped the ratings earlier this year when it ran on CCTV, the main state broadcaster, and is the most popular TV series ever on Youku, Chinas biggest online video site.For Estelle a naked wedding seems like a refreshingly simple option. “Chinese society is so materialistic and there is no trust between people,” she complains.Behind what looks like a romantic revolution are some very real social dynamics. “Increasing migration, higher education levels for women and, most importantly, soaring real estate prices have made marriage impossible for many if they want to conform with the requirements of tradition,” says Zhang Yi, a marriage expert at the Chinese academy of social sciences.After dropping in the late 1990s, in line with the typical trend in modernising societies, Chinas marriage rate has also started rising again. After bottoming at 6.1 couples per 1,000 citizens in 2002, it bounced back to 9.1 couples per 1,000 citizens in 2009.“The huge amount of labour migration across China means we have tens of millions of young people far away from home. They get used to making decisions without their parents and they fall in love,” says Professor Zhang. “In addition, people are choosing naked marriages in scores now because so many have waited for so long that they have reached an age where if they wait any longer, they will be left unmarried for life.”A recent supreme court ruling that a house bought by one spouse prior to the wedding remained that spouses personal property intended to clarify things in case of a di