解决问题的方法与假设咨询英文(ppt 34页).ppt

StructuredProblemSolving HypothesisGeneration 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 2 Goalsofthismodule Layoutasystematicapproachtosolvingbusinessproblems StructuredProblemSolving Establishacommon modusoperandus forConsultingteamsPracticethesuggestedprocessonareal lifeexample 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 3 Strategyisaboutthrivinginachangingworld Thepicture sprettybleak gentlemen Theworld sclimatesarechanging themammalsaretakingover andweallhaveabrainaboutthesizeofawalnut 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 4 whichisallabout decisionmaking Strategyisaboutmakingdecisions Thebeststrategy makers areabletoblendanalytictechniqueswithanunderstandingofthefutureuncertaintiesandsimplegoodluckBasedonoftenimperfectinformationtheymakedecisionsandthendriveimplementation 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 5 Therearetwobasicapproachestoproblemsolving butbothcanwork The there saponyinheresomewhere approach Thestructuredanalyticapproach Potentialforrichpowerfulsolutions Scurryaroundanalyzingtonsofdatatoseeifyoucanfindsomethinguseful Getthedata Potentialforgood andmixed solutions Defineproblemandhypotheses 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 6 Definingtheissueisthefirststepinthejourneytofinalrecommendations DevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplement FindInsights AnalyseData GatherData FormHypotheses Sowhat aha newthought Whatyoushoulddo andhow DefinetheIssues Whatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight Factualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypotheses Analysewhatthedatatellsus Statementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 7 Hypothesisformationensuresthatouranalysisisfocusedonourclient sproblem FormHypotheses DefinetheIssues GatherData AnalyseData FindInsights DevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplement Sowhat aha newthought Whatyoushoulddo andhow Whatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight Factualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypotheses Analysewhatthedatatellsus Statementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 8 Hypothesesaredevelopedinthreesteps Whataretherealstrategicissues Whatistheimpactontheorganisation Whatarethepriorities Wethink Itlookslike Therightanswermaybe Theoptionscouldbe Webelievethistobetrue Aseriesofstatements notyetbackedbydataBasedoninitialdatasearchorexpertopinions Anumberofassertionsneedtobetrueforahypothesistobevalid Isthereamarketforwhitelabelinsuranceproducts DirectchannelsaregrowingRetailershaveastrongchannelandbrandThereareexistingproducts ChubbInsurancecanaccessnewbusinessbyusingthebrandstrengthofTescoresultingIslowcostofacquisitionandprofitablebusiness Definethequestion ReviewandDescribeMultipleAssertions Formthehypothesis 1 2 3 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 9 Ahypothesisshouldidentifynotonlytheissuebutalsothecauseandtheimpact Thinkthroughthesethreestagesasyoucreateahypothesistohelpyouplanouthowyouwilltestit Whatistheissue Whatistheunderlyingopportunity Whereistheadvantage Whatdoyouthinkcausestheissue Whatarethekeydriversoftheprocess Whatistheimpactoftheissue Howcanwetellthereisanopportunity Whydowecare xisanopportunity dueto resultingin 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 10 TheStructuredProblemSolvingProcesscoversthelifecycleofaconsultingengagement DefinetheProblemStructuretheProblemDevelopaHypothesisExecutetheAnalysisDevelopaRecommendationCreatetheCommunicationDeliverCommunicationFollowUpwithClient Coveredincurrentmodule Coveredlaterintheweek 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 11 TheBasics ProblemSolvingApproach 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 12 DEFINETHEPROBLEM STRUCTURETHEANALYSIS FINDTHESOLUTION Ourproblemsolvingapproachproducesresultsthroughansweringasimpleseriesofquestions Isthereaproblemoropportunity Ifsowheredoesitlie Whydoesitexist Whatcouldwedoaboutit Whatshouldwedoaboutit Fine butIWIKH2dothis 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 13 Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple Alwaysask AretheyMutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive MECE Logicalpyramidsarebasictoolsforthisapproach helpingyoutodefine structureandsolvetheclient sproblem 1 Ideasatanylevelinthepyramidmustalwaysbesummariesoftheideasgroupedbelowthem2 Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbethesamekindofidea andtheymustanswerthesamequestionimpliedbytheirsummary3 Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbeinalogicalorder MainAssertion KeyLine DeductivelyorinductivelyTracecourseortimeorderDivideorstructuralorder e g Sales Marketing Manufacturing etc Classifyordegreeorder e g mostimportant 2ndmostimportant etc 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 14 Logicalpyramidsincreasetheeffectivenessofproblemsolving resultsdeliveryandcommunication VerticalstructureHorizontalstructureKeyline narrative buthelpensurethoroughanalysis whiledecreasingcomplexity andincreasingthepowerofpresentations Logicalpyramidshavesimplerules Theeffectivenessofourworkdependsheavilyonhowcompellinglywecanarguethatthesolutionweputforwardservestheclientbest Thereasoningwehavetoapplytocometooursolutioniscomplexanddifficulttosummarizeforbriefclientinteractions Tobuildsuccinctandcompellingpresentationsofourwork weuselogicalpyramidsasthepreferredcommunicationstyle PyramidsmakeinformationmorememorableandmeaningfulTheyleadtoaclearerdefinitionoftheproblemswesolveTheystructureoursolutionstotheseproblemsandmakethemmorecompelling Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple whichwillmakeyourwork lifemucheasiertohandle 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 15 DefineandStructuretheProblem 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 16 Ifyoudon tknowwhereyouaregoing anyroadwilltakeyouthere Anonymous Whyproblemdefinitionmatters 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 17 Instructuringaproblem breakitintosmaller easier to handlecomponentsANDstartwiththerightdefinitions USCarMarket LightTrucks PassengerCars Big3 MiniVans SportUtilityVehicles Ford GM Chrysler Butbecareful whydoesthisnotwork 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 18 MutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive Themostimportantruleforanystructureyouimpose 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 19 Divide Clarify DiagnosticFramework CauseEffectFramework StructuralFramework ProblemStructure Tohelpyousolveaproblem yourstructuremust DisaggregatetheproblemintosmallerandeasiertosolvecomponentsBea MECE descriptionoftheproblemanditspossiblesolutions TraceCause Therearethreewaystostructureabusinessproblem Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 20 HeadHurts Physical Mental External Internal Stress Tension Hypochondria Bumped BruisedHead Allergies BadWeather SinusHeadache Flu Cold BrainTumor WaterontheBrain Example1 disaggregatetheproblemintoadiagnosticsolutiontree SCooP Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 21 Storeiswithinshoppingradius donotknowaboutthestore knowaboutthestore nevervisitthestore enterthestore donotbuy makeapurchase donotcomeback makerepeatpurchases Location Advertising Signage CI Conversion CustomerValue RootCause Example2 tracecause disaggregatetheproblemintoacause effectframework HowcanTESCOimproveitssalesproductivity sales sq ft 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 22 Accounttype Packsize REPURCHASETargetmarketpersuadedtorepurchase DISTRIBUTIONBrandmadeavailable TRIALTargetmarketinducedtotry AWARENESSTargetmarketaware Productrejection Price valuerejection Frequencyofuse Occasionofuse Consumerprofile Pack Display Promotiontype Promotiontuning Sell ineffectiveness Feedback Ifalllinesofinquiryfailtorevealaproblemsource gobacktoconsiderwhethertargetmarketandconsumerbenefithavebeenaccuratelydefined Attributeawareness Advertisingrecall Advertisingspendingrate Mediamix Regionalweight Advertisingcommunication Targetmarket Consumerbenefit Region Salesforcecoverage Salesforcedirection Tradeterms Example3 disaggregatetheproblemintoanintrinsicstructure WhydoesWimpy snotshowtheanticipatedfinancialperformance Channel Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple Productspec Sellingprice Brandname Packaging POSITIONINGBrandproperlypositionedforthemarket 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 23 Exercise1 Kmartvs Wal Mart defineandstructureKmart sbusinessproblem SituationKmartandWal MartoperatesimilarchainsofFulllineDiscountstoresDifferentpricingstrategies Kmartfollowsapromotionalpricingstrategyofweeklysales offeringdiscountsonselecteditems Wal MartfollowsanEDLPstrategy EDLP EveryDayLowPrices Kmart sregularpricesarehigherthanWal Mart s itssalespricesarelowerWal MarthasabetterpriceperceptionthanKmartKmarthasahigherGMthanWal Mart 23 vs 21 KmarthassignificantlyhigherSG Aaspercentofsales whicheliminateKmart sGrossMarginadvantageoverWal MartWal Mart sscaleadvantageisnotdrivenbythenumberofstores butbyitssalesperstore bettersalespersquarefoot KmarthassignificantlylowersalespersquarefootsalesthanWal Mart 170vs 250 WithWal Mart ssalesproductivity KmartwouldbeaboutasprofitableasWal MartComplicationKmartisoperatingatbreak even andWal Mart saggressiveexpansionputsmoreandmoreofKmart sstoresintodirectcompetitionwithWal Mart decreasingtheirstorecontributionandKmart soverallprofitabilityQuestion StructureKmart sproblemtohelpitsmanagementdeviseasolution includingidentifyingthekeyquestionthatourstudymustanswer 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 24 Exercise1 defineandstructureKmart sproblem firststepistologicallyorganizethefacts Company Competitor Customer HigherGMthanWalMart HigherSG AexpensesthanWalMart Agingstores Hi Lopricingstrategy LowernetincomethanWalMart Erodingsame storesalesvs WalMart Sales sq ft higherthanKmart AggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritories EDLPpricingstrategy CustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmart 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 25 Exercise1 defineandstructureKmart sproblem secondstepistoiteratetodriveinsightcreation AlthoughKmart sHi LopricingstrategyleadstohighGM highSG Ahasledtoerodingsalesproductivity HigherGMthanWalMart HigherSG AexpensesthanWalMart Agingstores Hi Lopricingstrategy LowernetincomethanWalMart Erodingsame storesalesvs WalMart Sales sq ft higherthanKmart AggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritories EDLPpricingstrategy CustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmart WalMartisaggressivelyexpanding withhighlyproductivestoresandadifferentpricingstrategythanKMart CustomersperceiveWalMartdelivershighervalueinsomeareas HowcanKmartimproveitssalesproductivity sales sq ft 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 26 Exercise4 summaryperformancedataforacreditcardissuer what stheproblem Note Allfiguresin1000s Assumenopriceinflationandthatinterestrateshaveremainedconstant The80 20Rule 80 oftheanswerisin20 ofthedataOftenwemissthegoldminebecausewearebusytryingtovaluetheshackbuiltontopofitThisdata takenfromarealclient butrebased tellsthewholesorrystoryoftheirstrategicprobleminonepicture 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 27 Exercise5 usinga quickanddirty approachcanproducesurprisinglyaccurateresults 30million 300million 3billion 30billion 300billion HowMany Retail LitresofPetrolAreSoldinFrancePerYear Data FrenchPopulation 60million 1Gallon 3 8Litres 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 28 DevelopaHypothesis 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 29 Explicitlytiesyouranalysistoyourproblemdefinition Whyhypothesesmatter Theykeepyoureffort Helpsdefinethelevelofaccuracythatmatters Ensuresyouanalyzenomorethanisneededtodisprovehypotheseswithinareasonabledoubt Allowsquickcheckbeforemassivedatacollectionandcrunching Ifweconfirmourbeliefinthehypothesis willwebeabletoactonit Keepsyouefficient 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 30 Source BarbaraMinto ThePyramidPrinciple RuleCaseResult Ifweputthepricetoohigh saleswillgodownWehaveputpricestoohighTherefore saleswillgodown CaseResultRule WehaveputpricesupSaleshavegonedownSaleshavegonedownbecausethepriceistoohigh SaleshavegonedownSalesgodownwhenpricesaretoohighProbablywehaveputpricestoohigh Hypothesis ResultRuleCase Abductionisavariationondeductiveandinductivereasoningandapowerfultooltodevelophypotheses 2004Capgemini AllrightsreservedXxx yymmdd StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration Author 31 DEVELOPAHYPOTHESIS Whatdifferentiatesagoodhypothesisfromabadone Ontarget Answersthecorequestionontheclients mindAccurat