2011年对外贸易形势及相关政策分析报告.doc

The current trade environment analysis and new policy adjustment in 2011 Topic Chinese English商务部当前外贸形势分析及政策调整 the current trade environment analysis( by MOC )目前外贸环境分析：1 有利因素：a. 外需保持适度增长。 b. 我国出口总体竞争力仍然较强。 c. 十二五规划为外贸发展注入新活力。2 不利因素 ：a. 全球贸易复苏势头明显放缓。 b. 国际环境不确定、不稳定因素增多。 c. 出口面临国内五大压力 ： 1)原材料上涨 2)劳动力成本上升，用工短缺 3)人民币升值压力大 4) 节能、减排压力大 5) 融资成本压力大2011年欧盟市场分析：27个国家，5亿人口，2010年欧元区经济增长1.7%，个人消费增长1.2%。2010年欧盟区失业率为10% 。高债务，高赤字。特点：（1）失业率高起，抑制欧盟消费回暖。 （2）信贷紧缩，制约贸易融资、投资。（3）财政赤字，拖累欧盟经济增长。 （4） 外需下降。（5）主权债务危机进一步恶化，影响金融稳定。执行更严厉的反倾销政策欧盟将要长达10年的经济低迷时期The current foreign trade environment analysis :Advantage : a. the oversea requirement sustains proper growth .b. We still own the strong exportation Competitive advantages .c. The twelfth five years plan inject the new energy to the foreign trades development .Disadvantage :a. The international trade recovery become slower .b. The uncertain factors increases for the international trade environment .c. The exporter is facing following five pressure :1) The price of the raw material is growing up .2) The labor cost is growing up .3) CNY is appreciating 4) The energy conservation cost is growing up .5) Financing difficulties 2010 - 2011 European Union market analysis Total 27 countries , 0.5 billion population . 2010 : The economic growth is 1.7% , the private spending growth is 1.2% , the unemployment rate is 10% High debts , high deficit 。(1) the high unemployment will block the private spendings recovery .(2) The tightened credit will block the trade financing and the trade investment.(3) The finance deficit will block the economics growth .(4) The international market requirement is decreasing .(5) The sovereignty debt crisis will further worsen ，the financing situation will become unstable .出口退税政策调整趋势 The VAT policy adjustment & trend（by SAT）1 保持稳定，国家财政状况良好，不会下调2 海关特殊监管区域（保税区、保税物流园区等）税务政策将整合3 加工贸易税务政策将作调整。4 增值税转型，部分营业税范围改为增值税，分部实施，最终实现取消营业税。5 进口税收政策调整，如来料加工进口设备增值税的退税。1. Sustain the policy stability . the financing status is very good , the VAT rebate rate will not down .2. Reconcile and unify the VAT policy for Free Trade Zone , Bonded Logistic zone .3. There are some change for the processing trade policy.4. VAT innovation , part of the business tax scope will be merged by VAT , step by step , the finally all of the business tax scope will be merged by VAT .5. The importation policy will be changed , for example the VAT refund for the imported equipment of the enterprise who deal with processing trade ( lailiao) .对OXYLANEs影响The impact to Oxylane( comments by Eliza )1 出口退税率不会下调，对生产成本没有影响。2 密切关注保税区政策调整，很可能影响在保税区注册的DPPs 目前的运作流程。3 加工贸易政策调整将直接影响在作关本的供应商，也将间接影响DPPS的生产成本。4 增值税、营业税合并问题，短期内对我司没有影响。（至少1-3年内没影响）1. No change or down for the VAT refund rate , no impact to our production cost 2. Pay close attention to the change of the free trade zone , probably there will be some impact to our current operating flow .3. The change of the processing trade policy will indirectly impact to our production cost .4. The merge of VAT/business tax innovation , no impact to our business in short and middle terms ( at least no impact within 1-3 years )海关监管的措施调整 The new policy of custom control in 2011( by GAC ）近期政策：1） 署令（2010）197号文，对AA/A类企业适用相应的通关便利措施，对B类企业适用常规管理措施，对C类企业适用严厉管理措施。2） 署令（2010）195号关于加工贸易，未经海关批准，加工贸易货物不得抵押，保税货物外发加工有如下情况，应缴纳税款金额的保证金或银行保函：A/ 外发加工业务跨关区的B/ 全部工序外发加工的C/ 外发加工后货物不运回直接出口的Up-dated policy 1) GAC (2010) No.197 : the custom control will implement different custom declaration procedure according the different class of the enterprises , for class AA/A enterprises , they will get VIP procedures , for the class B enterprise , they will get normal procedure , and for the class C enterprise , they will get more strict procedures .2) GAC(2010)No.195 about the processing trading , without the custom authoritys approval, the bonded stock can not be mortgage ， and for the sub-sub contracting bonded stock , the subcontractor need to pay cash deposit or bank guarantee in the following case : A/ Sub sub-contracting transaction between different custom inspection areas . B/ Full production process sub sub- contracting C/ Direct export after sub sub-contracting , no products return back . 对OXYLANEs影响The impact to Oxylane( comments by Eliza ) 1) 对迅力这样的A类企业，将享受VIP 待遇，通关速度将提高 ，建议斯博汀申请加入A类企业。2) 对于JBO/ SP 来料加工业务，如果涉及外发加工跨关区的（如外发料到湖北、广西等地的），加工厂需交纳税款保证金，这势必将间接增加生产成本。1) It will be profit for calss A company like Xunli , it accelerate the speed of the export declaration process .suggest SP to apply for class A company .2) For the custom book business of JBO/SP , if the bonded stock need to be sub subcontracting within different custom areas , ( for example transfer the bonded stock to Hubei province or other province) , the cash deposit need to be paid by the subcontractor . this will indirectly increase our products cost .专家对2011年人民币升值 预测The forecast of CNY appreciation( by the university expert) 2011年人民币汇率预测： 从现在起，未来半年内升值超过3%，全年上升将超过7%，上半年比下半年快。 The forecast of the exchange rate CNY/ USDFrom now on , the CNY will appreciate 3% in the future 6 months , it will appreciate 7% for the whole year , it will be go more fast in the first semester than the second semester .对OXYLANEs影响The impact to Oxylane( comments by Eliza)1. 对那些与我司美元结算的供应商将有较大影响，很可能他们要提出新的付款条款2. 对于有自营出口业务的DPP将有较大影响，年度税收贡献将大大减少。如迅力，斯博汀1. It will be big impact to the suppliers who receives USD from DPPS , probably they will raise to change the payment term with us .2. It will be big impact to the DPP who have direct export business ,like XL ,SP , the profit will be decreased and the income tax will be less than previous year .外汇管理政策趋势 New SAFE policy trendby SAFE ）2011年成为中国再通胀之年，CPI 超5.3%，外汇收支净流入压力大。新政策：1 进口核销改革，将逐笔核销改为总量核销。2，简化外贸企业退税申报程序，外汇核销与退税申报脱钩 3 出口收汇留存境外 The year 2011 will become the “inflation year”, the CPI will over 5.3% ， the net foreign currency cash flow in is growing .New policy :1/ Simplify the Importation SAFE declaration procedure .2/ Disconnect the CAV documents from VAT refund declaration for the export of I/E company .3/ The cash produced from the export transaction can be allowed to deposit in oversea bank account . 对OXYLANEs影响The impact to Oxylane( comments by Eliza) 1 对于有自营进口业务的DPP ， 外汇核销程序将大大简化 （如莘威、迅力）2 对外贸退税企业出口退税申报文件减化了，DPP如斯博汀1. For the DPPs who have direct import business , the SAFE declaration procedure will be simplified .（XUNLI / XINWEI）2. For the I/E company , the DPP like SP , the VAT refund declaration procedure will be simplified .纺织品行业目前状况The current situation of the textiles Industries( by the main I/E textiles corp.) 2010年总体情况：全国纺织品出口企业70000家，出口以外资、民营企业为主，外资占53%，民营占31%，一般贸易方式出口74% ，加工贸易方式出口占19%。内销占80%份额，外销占20%份额。2010 - 2011年纺织业企业面临的困难 ：1 订单多，生产产能不够，工厂不够，生产规模下降 ，企业缩小 。纺织业为低利润行业，有资金实力的企业转行做房地产高利润行业。很多进出口公司是有订单，找不到工厂做货。2 劳动力不足 ， 工人成本上升，有些地区半年内已涨30% ，如今农民工不愿当工人，一则国家农民政策好，致富容易，二则农民通过卖地可实现一夜暴富 ，工人是地道的无产阶级。河南省、内蒙古等地工人月工资1200 - 1500 元包吃包住，仍然招不到工人。3 大宗原材料价格上涨，如棉花、化纤、喷胶棉、摇粒绒等，一天内几个价格，出现有些省份的供应商是先收货款 后报价 ，因为价格难控制 ，由此造成质量难控制 。“有的用就不错了”成为原材料供应商的常用语了 。4 只做内销单，不愿