欧债危机中英文稿.doc

欧债的开始December 2009 the three largest credit rating companies downgraded Greeces sovereign rating, then the Greek debt crisis intensified, but the financial community that the Greek economy is small, the debt crisis will not expand. December 8, 2009 Fitch credit rating of Greece lowered from A-to BBB +, outlook negative. December 15, 2009 the Greek government bonds sold 2 billion euros.December 16, 2009 Standard & Poors will be Greeces long-term sovereign credit rating from A- down to BBB +. December 22, 2009 Moodys December 22, 2009 announced that it would cut Greeces sovereign rating from A1 to A2, the rating outlook to negative欧债的发展Other European countries are also in crisis, including Belgium, the outside world that the more stable countries, and strong economic strength of the euro area, Spain, the high budget deficits are forecast the next three years, Greece has been the protagonist of non-crisis, the European Union have been debt-crisis. January 11, 2010 Moodys warned Portugal failure to take effective measures to control the deficit will cut the national debt credit rating. February 4, 2010 the Spanish Ministry of Finance pointed out that Spain in 2010 will account for fear of the overall public budget deficit of 9.8% of GDP. February 5, 2010 debt crisis sparked fears of 6% of Spains stock market plunge the day, record the largest decline in 15 months. 欧债的升级Greek Finance Minister said that Greece is required before May 19 of about 90 billion euros to weather the crisis. EU finance ministers reached an 10 am up to 750 billion euros of the total stabilization mechanism to prevent the crisis from spreading. April 23, 2010 Greece formally applied to the EU and IMF assistance May 3, 2010 German cabinet approved 22.4 billion aid plan 10 May the EU approved 750 billion euros Greek aid program, IMF may provide 250 billion euros to aid Greece欧债危机的影响Faced by countries such as Greeces sovereign debt problems, the euro exchange rate from December 2009 onwards all the way down, to April 27, 2010, the euro-dollar exchange rate closed at its lowest point over the past year, compared with early December 2009 fell by 12.8 %. If you can not effectively solve the debt problems of countries such as Greece, difficult to restore market confidence, would further suppress the euro exchange rate. The international community generally believes that the euro has been the debt problems of Greece and other countries drag from the most difficult period since the birth.Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries to take the radical austerity, might make the economy back into recession. According to the latest IMF forecast, in 2010, Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal, the four countries real GDP growth rate of -2%, -0.4%, -1.5% and 0.3%, the worst performance in the euro area member countries . At present, although concentrated in the Greek sovereign debt of a country, but there continues to spread the risk to other euro area countries, Standard & Poors on April 27, 28, a series of lower Greece, Portugal and Spains sovereign credit rating is fueling such a panic.As the single currency area, economic imbalances within the euro area monetary policy to the implementation of a uniform manufacturing obstacles, economic recovery in the euro area member states of step with the European Central Bank relaxed monetary policy in the implementation of exit strategy is difficult to determine a suitable for all members of the timetable. The euro-zone countries, Greece and other debt problems exposed, dragged down the pace of economic recovery in the euro area, the ECB may also have a longer period of time the benchmark interest rate at historic lows.Since its launch the euro, with strong economic strength, has quickly become the second largest after the U.S. dollar the international currency, the euro financial crisis provides an opportunity to enhance its international status. But the debt problems of Greece and other countries undermined confidence in the euro market, if not effectively addressed as soon as possible, will seriously affect the international status of the euro and the overall stability of the euro area, euro area monetary union model will also be severely tested.IMF on April 20 and 21, has released Global Financial Stability Report and World Economic Outlook, the developed countries have expressed concerns about sovereign debt risk. The IMF World Economic Outlook report, said the short term, the main risk is that if left unchecked, the Greek sovereign debt market liquidity and solvency concerns, may evolve into a fully sovereign debt crisis, and the formation of a kinds of spreading.Solution The first pillar: Bank capital increaseBanks need additional capital, so that it could withstand the loss and subsequent bankruptcy absorbing Greek influence. In contrast, bank capital increase is three pillars in the easier one. The key is to determine the banks core tier one capital ratio. The second pillar: Relief FundOn how to locate EFSF function divergence. France, the European Union and the United States can hope EFSF additional capital in the bank in the process, play a more central and active role. Germany believes that, should act as lender of last resort to EFSF role only in the bank itself and the national government can not provide the necessary support to problem banks, only need to come forward EFSF. In addition to the planned funding for the bank and the second round of the Greek aid measures but also to prevent the debt crisis turned into a banking crisis. The third pillar: the Greek debt restructuringRestructuring of the Greek debt hinges on Greek government bonds held by creditors appropriate by design, so that Greeces debt sustainability, and economic growth through fiscal restraint and to make up. In the July 21 bailout program, the bank holding the bond reduction of 21%, the nominal value equivalent to the Greek debt decreased by 5%. But now is not enough. France initially objected to significantly reduce the total debt of Greece, because France is the largest of the Greek debt holders. Germany recommends a substantial reduction of the Greek debt. 对中国的影响：TheEUisChinaslargestexportmarket.ThecurrentstageoftheEuropeancrisiswillhaveasignificantimpactonChinasexporttradeandtherearesignsthatthisisalreadyhappening.WhenthefinancialcrisisfirststrucktheUSandEuropein2008,ChinasexportstotheEUremainedunaffected.Itwasonlyin2009thatexportstotheEUsufferedalargefall.Thiswasfollowedbyastrongrecoveryin2010,whichbroughtexportstotheEUbackupclosetotheirpre-crisislevels.ItappearedthattheEUandChineseexportstherehadreturnedtonormal.Thishasturnedouttobeanillusion.ThefailureoftheEUtodealwiththeproblemsitfacedmerelydelayedthedayofreckoning.ThisstronggrowthinimportsfromChinawassustainedinthefirstfewmonthsofthisyear,butmorerecentlyithasslowedsharply.AccordingtoEUstatistics,importsfromChinagrewbyonly8.4percentinMay.ThisfigurehidessharpdifferencesacrossthememberstatesoftheEU.ChinasexportstoseveralEUcountrieshaveexperiencedfallsinrecentmonths.ImportsfromChinabyPortugalfell11.6percentinMay.InMarchandAprilimportsbySpainfell,althoughtheymanagedasmallincreaseinMay.ThecountriesworsthitbythecrisisarerelativelysmallimportersofChinesegoods.OfgreatersignificanceistheUK,oneofthebiggestmarketsforChina,whoseimportsalsowentintoadeclineinMay.Itisnotonlythecrisis-hitcountrieswhereimportgrowthhasbeenweakening.ImportsfromChinabyDenmarkalsofellinMay.ImportgrowthinFranceandtheNetherlandshasalsoslowedsharply.EvenmoresignificantisthatthegrowthinimportsbyGermanyhasalsodeceleratedrapidly,andinMarchexperiencedadeclineforthefirsttimesinceJanuary2010,althoughthiswasfollowedbytwomonthsofweakgrowth.WhilesomecountriesinEurope,likeItaly,havemaintainedstrongimportgrowthfromChina,thismaynotlastmuchlongerandthesignsaremultiplyingthatChinasexportstotheEUarefacingseveredifficulties.ChinasexportstotheEUarehighlycyclical.Thereisnormallyatroughinmonthlyexportsearlyintheyear,followedbyasteadyrisetoapeakinaboutOctober.Themainexportingseasonof2011isstillaheadofus,butthemostrecentsignsarenotpositive,especiallyinthosecountriesinsevereeconomicdifficulties.Evenifitmanagestofinallyadoptpoliciestosolvethecrisis,manymarketsintheEUwillnotreturntostronggrowthanytimesoon.Thepoliciesrequiredtosolvethecrisiswillimposesevereeconomichardshipoveranumberofyears.Thiswillhavealong-termeffectonChinasexportstotheEU.Chineseexportersmayhavetofacetheprospectthatunlikein2008,theremaybenoquickreturntostronggrowthacrossmanymarketsintheEU.TheauthorisaseniorresearcherwithBrusselsInstituteofContemporaryChinaStudies.翻译：影响方面：对照上文的影响 受希腊等国家面临的主权债务问题影响，欧元汇率从2009年12月起一路下跌，至2010年4月27日，欧元兑美元汇率报收一年来的最低点，较2009年12月初下跌了12.8。如果不能够有效解决希腊等国家的债务问题，市场信心难以恢复，会进一步打压欧元汇率。国际社会普遍认为，欧元已经被希腊等国的债务问题拖入自诞生以来的最困难时期。 希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙等国采取的激进财政紧缩政策，可能使其经济重新陷入衰退。根据IMF最新预估，2010年，希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰和葡萄牙四国实际GDP增长率为-2、-0.4、-1.5和0.3，是欧元区成员国中表现最差的几个国家。目前，尽管主权债务问题集中在希腊一国，但也存在继续扩散至其他欧元区国家的风险，标普公司在4月27日、28日接连降低希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的主权信用评级更是助长了这种恐慌。 作为单一货币区，欧元区内部经济失衡给执行统一货币政策制造了障碍，欧元区各成员国经济复苏的步调不一致，使欧央行在实施宽松货币政策“退出”策略时很难确定一份适合所有成员的时间表。而希腊和其他一些欧元区国家暴露出来的债务问题，拖累了欧元区经济复苏的步伐，也使欧洲央行可能不得不在更长的时间内把基准利率维持在历史低点。 欧元自启动以来，凭借雄厚的经济实力，已迅速成为仅次于美元的第二大国际货币，金融危机为欧元提升国际地位提供了机遇。但希腊等国的债务问题损害了市场对欧