现金流量与财务分析.ppt

Chapter3 CashFlowsandFinancialAnalysis 現金流量與財務分析 天马行空官方博客 A FinancialInformation 財務資訊 p 57 FinancialinformationistheresponsibilityofmanagementCreatedbywithin firmaccountants 由公司內的會計師編製 andreviewedbyauditors 公司外的稽查員來檢閱 CreatesaconflictofinterestbecausemanagementwantstoportrayfirminapositivelightPublishedtoavarietyofaudiences A 1 UsersofFinancialInformation InvestorsandFinancialAnalystsMajorpartofanalyst sjobistomakeacarefulstudyofrecentfinancialstatementsVendors CreditorsUsefinancialinformationtodetermineifthefirmisexpectedtomakegoodonloansManagementpinpointstrengthsandweaknessesinoperations A 2 SourcesofFinancialInformation 財務資訊的來源 p 59 AnnualReport 主要的資訊來源 RequiredofallpubliclytradedfirmsTendtoportrayfirminapositivelight sotendtobiasedinfavorofmanagement sperformanceBrokeragefirmsandinvestmentadvisoryservicesprovidereportsonmostlargefirms Example ValueLine 價值線 Moody s S P A 3 TheOrientationofFinancialAnalysis 財務分析的導向 p 62 AccountingisconcernedwithfinancialstatementsFinanceisconcernedwithusingthedatacontainedwithinfinancialstatementstomakedecisions 使用財報上的資料去作決策 B TheStatementofCashFlows p 63 ConstructedfromtheBalanceSheetandIncomeStatement需要2個連續年度的資產負債表及當年的損益表來形成現金流量表編表的方式有2種依據3個不同的活動 operating investing andfinancingactivities 依據現金的來源與使用 B 2 BusinessCashFlows p 66 CashFlowsRulesAssetincrease useofcashAssetdecrease sourceofcashLiabilityincrease sourceofcashLiabilitydecrease useofcash B 3 ConstructingtheStatementofCashFlows Example p 69 1 B 3 ConstructingtheStatementofCashFlows Example p 69 1 Alsoassumefirmpaida 500dividendandsoldstockfor 800duringtheyear B 3 ConstructingtheStatementofCashFlows Example p 69 2 Whilethefirmwasprofitable itstillhadtoborrowmoneyandsellstocktofinancetheincreaseinFixedAssets B 4 FreeCashFlows 1 p 73 UndernormalconditionsmostfirmsgeneratepositivecashflowfromoperationsSomeofthesefundsareusedtomaintainlong runcompetitivepositionReplaceworn outfixedassetsPaydividendsonPreferredStock B 4 FreeCashFlows 2 p 73 Freecashflow 自由現金流量 isthecashgeneratedbeyondreinvestmentneeds 所產生的現金超過再投資所需的資金 FreeCFs NetCF non operatingcashrequirements tomaintainalong runcompetitionposition Freecashflowisthecashavailablefordistributiontocommonstockholders C RatioAnalysis 財務比率分析 p 73 90 ComparisonsHistory examinetrends howthevaluehaschangedovertime Competition comparewithotherfirmsinthesameindustryBudget compareactualvalueswithexpectedordesiredvalues C RatioAnalysis 1 CommonSizeStatements 共同比報表 同基財務報表 是將報表中的數字利用一個共同的基準轉換成百分比 除了能規避規模不一的影響外 也可以 分解 出各會計科目所占的重要性 呈現出結構性的資訊 故稱結構性分析 CommonsizeincomestatementPresentseachlineasapercentofrevenueCommonsizebalancesheetPresentseachlineasapercentoftotalassets C RatioAnalysis 2 CommonSizeStatements 共同比報表 Thecommonsizeanalysisleadsustoasktherightquestions Itdoesn tgiveustheanswers butitgetsourinvestigationofproblemsstartedintherightdirection Commonsizeanalysisisparticularlyusefulincomparingafirm sperformancewithitsownhistory Example p 74 75 C RatioAnalysis 3 TrendanalysisbyCommon base yearstatements 同基年財務報表 趨勢分析是指選定某一會計年度為基年 baseyear 將所欲分析的各年度財務報表數額以此基年數額為相同分母平減 化為指數的型態 以觀察公司資產 負債及損益狀況的消長情形 趨勢分析適合進行長期性的分析 多樣本的分析 而轉化成指數值的報表稱為同基年財務報表 CommonSizeStatements C 3 Ratios 1 p 76 CategoriesofRatios Table3 1 Liquidity indicatefirm sabilitytopayitsbillsintheshortrunAssetManagement showhowthecompanyusesitsresourcestogeneraterevenue profitandtoavoidcost C 3 Ratios 2 CategoriesofRatios Table3 1 DebtManagement showhoweffectivelythefirmhasusedborrowedfundsandwhetherornotithasahighamountofleverageProfitability allowassessmentofthecompany sabilitytomakemoneyMarketValue giveanindicationofhowinvestorsfeelaboutthecompany sfinancialfuture C 3 Ratios 3 1 Liquidityratios流動比率 hastoexceed1 0 速動比率 酸性測驗比率 不考慮存貨的比率 C 3 Ratios 4 2 Assetmanagementratios 資產管理 利用比率 平均收款期間 days 太高的ACP可能是存在有收不回來的應收帳款之暗示 存貨週轉率 times ahigherturnoverisbetter 固定資產週轉率 times 次 衡量長期績效 總資產週轉率 times 次 衡量長期績效 C 3 Ratios 5 3 DebtManagementRatios 債務管理比率 財務槓桿比率 長期償債能力 Debt是指長期債務與流動負債的總和負債比率 比率越高則被投資人視為高風險 負債對權益比率 fixedfinancialcharge比率越高隱含安全性越高 現金涵蓋比率固定費用涵蓋比率 C 3 Ratios 6 ProfitabilityRatios 獲利能力比率 一般以百分比的方式表示銷貨報酬率 ROS profitmargin netprofitmargin資產報酬率 ROA 權益報酬率 ROE C 3 Ratios 7 MarketValueRatios 市價比率 價盈比 P Eratio 越高越好 市價對帳面價值比 穩健的公司會產生股票市價高於帳面價值 C 3 Ratios 8a DuPontEquations 杜邦恆等式 利用比率之間的關係以洞悉營運之成功與否 C 3 Ratios 8b ExtendedDuPontequationstatesthattheoperationofabusinessisreflectedinitsROEHowever thisresult goodorbad canbemultipliedbyborrowingThewayyoufinanceabusin