战略分析工具+分析方法-Penetration+Curve.ppt

Author NancyGreene PenetrationCurve S Curve March1998 Copyright 1998Bain Company Inc 2 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology Copyright 1998Bain Company Inc 3 Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases earlyadoption trialmassadoptionsaturation substitutiondeclineTheproductlife cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern calledanS curve orpenetrationcurve Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproducts WhatisaPenetrationCurve S Curve 4 ProductLife Cycle Time Volume Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases Earlyadoption trial Massadoption Saturation substitution Decline Drivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct sinitialgrowth Theproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket characterizedbyrapidproductgrowth Theproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycle Thedeclineoftheproduct drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct 5 CharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate orsaturationpoint ofaproduct duration speedofproductlife cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture society Whenconsideringpenetrationcurves thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind 6 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 7 ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves Validating determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase out giventhespeedofnewproducts adoption Penetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket 8 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 9 In1994 theNationalInstitutesofHealth NIH issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria H Pylori Whilepreviously doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti secretorydrugs NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease In1997 anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU S PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH PyloriabloodtestforH PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtests Situation HowlargeisthemarketforH Pyloritestsovertime KeyQuestion ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange DisguisedCaseSituation 1of2 10 Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995 only5 ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH Pyloriin1991 thefigurewascloseto1 InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors behavior ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997 60 saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH Pylori15 saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics withoutfirsttestingforH Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda ceiling ontesting 15 ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH Pyloriwithouttestingforit Research Historicpenetration 1991 1 1995 5 1997 60 Saturationpoint 85 PenetrationCurveData Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint DisguisedCaseSituation 2of2 11 H PyloriTestingMarket Saturationpoint 85 PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH Pyloritests 12 Agenda ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology 13 GatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheetPicksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct spenetration i e noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios saturationpoint 100 inthisexampleCalculatepenetrationratio historicpercent saturationpoint historicpercent 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio Methodology 1of3 14 1989199019911992 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio 7 5957 5967 5977 597 ln years 1 099 0 895 0 561 0 301 ln penetrationratio 198919901991199219931994etc 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080 5710 740 PenetrationRatio 7 5957 5967 5967 5977 5977 598etc ln years 1 099 0 895 0 561 0 301 ln penetrationratio 0 9661 268etc TakethenaturallogoftheyearsandthepenetrationratioRegressthelogofyearsvs thelogofthepenetrationratioUseresultstocalculatepredictedpenetrationratiouseformulaforaline andtakeanti logantilogof ln year xx coefficient b Methodology 2of3 15 Calculatepredictedpenetrationusingthepredictedpenetrationratioandsaturationpoint predictedpenetrationratioxsaturationpoint 1 predictedpenetrationratio 198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 25 0 29 0 36 3 42 5 Years HistoricPenetration 0 3330 4080