外文翻译-人口老龄化-完整.doc

中国的人口老龄化摘 要：由于下降的生育率和上升的寿命率的协同效应，使人口老龄化成为“人口过渡”过程中不可避免的结果。在老龄化进程中，农村和城市人口有不同程度的老龄化趋势。人口老龄化也引起社会群体对老人生活安排的注意。由于传统观念的改变，子女的赡养不再是老人唯一的依靠，更多的是政府和另外一些社会机构对老年人作出的扶助政策。关键词：人口过渡 老龄化趋势 生活安排一、 引 言中国的人口老龄化的直接决定因素基本上也如另外一些国家一样。由于下降的生育率和上升的寿命率的协同效应，使人口老龄化成为“人口过渡”过程中不可避免的结果。然而，由于不同的历史，文化，经济和政治背景，所以中国的老龄化明显是特殊的。随着21世纪前五十年，老年人口比例从6.8%增长到23.6%，使得老龄化的增长趋势本身就无法匹敌。作为世界上人口最多的国家，老龄化的人口增长达到了惊人的24，2000，000。本论文的写作目的是在社会主义的前提下来检测中国老龄化中的诸多方面。首先我们探索人口决定因素和老龄化趋势，强调国家政策促进了低水平的人口生育率和死亡率。为了解决老年人的赡养问题，我们调查了传统的家庭照顾体系以及在1987年改革开放政策启动以来所面对的挑战。然后我们回顾了政府为满足老龄化人口需求所倡导的退休和医疗计划。然后我们总结了政府在面对平衡经济发展和老龄化扶助安排中的两难窘境。最后我们将回顾一些政策方案和潜在的机遇来解决二十一世纪的全球人口问题。二、 急剧下降的生育和死亡率模式作为世界上现存最古老的人类社会，中国的人口历史到了二十世纪符合典型的人口过渡模式中的前过渡阶段的描述。在十七世纪前的一千年中，高生育率和高死亡率的人口体制使人口波动在37,000,000-60,000,000之间，在清朝时首度经历了迅速增长，达到了400,000,000。然而在1851年至1949年由于内战和帝国主义的侵略造成了社会动乱，使得一口再一度下降。1949年中华人民共和国的成立标志着人口过渡的开端，这个过程使得中国与其他国家在急剧下降的生育率和死亡率中区分开来，两者都离不开政府的干预。三、 城市和乡村的老龄化趋势低死亡率和低生育率的成功使得人口老龄化加剧。运用1982年的人口普查中的城市/农村定义，马森认为到2017年15%的城市人口将能达到65岁，然而在农村20年后才会出现该状况。然而20世纪80年代以来的农村人口迁到城市的行为可能改变这一调查报告。根据2000年的人口审查表，可作出保守的估计人口会达到79，000，000，把净迁出人口计算在内，马森发现农村老龄化将会越来越多，65岁以上的人口将会达到2009年目前城市的人口状况。四、 生活安排的趋势研究老年人的生活安排有必要去理解亲属是否可以提供赡养。因为同居于一个屋檐下更可能去提供赡养，即使实际复杂的生活安排和健康，生活安排仍可视为一种幸福指标。据2000年曾等人收集到的人口普查和调查数据宏观模拟了老年人生活安排的趋势根据平均的生育率、死亡率、农村/城市迁移，结婚和离婚的假设。即使是保守的估计，他们的计划显示平均人口数量将会从2000年的3.46%锐减到2020年的2.86%和2050年的2.69%。年龄超过65岁的空巢家庭将会达到2000年的三倍。五、 政府和协会的相关扶助如上诉述的，传统的家庭结构和家庭赡养制度在中国已经历了一些变化。面对如此已毁坏的非正式的老年支持体系，政府有必要加强其扶助的角色。我们可以得出三个不同阶段的政策体系，分别是协会帮助，医疗保障和保险和老年社会保障。六、 结 论目前正如三十年前一样，人口过多仍是主要问题。矛盾的是计划生育已经成功地控制人口的增长，另一方面却急剧加速了老龄化进程。关注点从太多孩子去赡养变成太少孩子去赡养迅速老化的人口。由于下降的依靠比率和上升的健康医疗和社会保障计划，中国正处于满足老龄化需求的巨大压力中。这是一个极具挑战性的问题，因为中国人均收入水平是同样面对人口老龄化的发达国家四分之一而已。因此中国将同时面临经济发展和人口老龄化处理的双重难题。中国将怎样解决在致富之前先治老龄化，又是谁将会照顾这些老人呢？在中国已经延续了几个世纪的孝道深植于文化传统中。尽管最近几年有所毁损，但仍难以置信它将在不久后瓦解消亡。有许多证据表明中国的父母和子女间有着紧密的联系和两代间的凝聚力。而且政府也在努力来保护传统价值和巩固家庭义务。在未来的几十年里，家庭赡养体系仍然是一个不可或缺的角色来承担照顾老人的责任。政府和家庭的联手努力或许是解决长期老龄化问题的最好方案。Population Aging in China1 IntroductionThe proximate determinants of population aging in China are fundamentally the same as those in any other country. It is an inevitable consequence of the process known as the “demographic transition” in which declining fertility together with a rise in life expectancy leads to a shift towards an older age structure of the population. Yet, the story of population aging in China is unmistakably unique, shaped by its distinct historical, cultural, economic and political contexts. The pace of its aging trend is by itself unparalleled, with the proportion of older adults projected to grow from 6.8 per cent to 23.6 per cent over the first half of the twenty-first century (United Nations 2005). As the most populous country in the world, this increase in the population of elderly translates to an astounding growth of 242 million people, which would qualify itIt is the purpose of this chapter to examine the multifaceted process of population aging in China, with particular attention to its socialist/communist background. We begin by exploring the demographic determinants and trends of population aging, highlighting the role of state policies in facilitating the fertility and mortality declines. To address the issue of elderly caregiving, we examine the traditional family support system and the challenges it faces since the launch of the economic reform policies in 1978. We then review the on-going pension and health care reforms initiated by the government as strategies to meet the demands of an aging population. In the conclusion, we discuss the dilemma that the government faces in balancing economic development and providing adequate old-age support. Lastly, we review some alternative policy options and potential opportunities China may have in addressing this global population problem of the 21 st century.2 An Accelerated Model of Mortality and Fertility DeclineAs one of the oldest human societies in existence, Chinas population history up to the twentieth century fits the description of the pre-transitional stage of the classic model of demographic transition. Under a high fertility and high mortality regime, the population fluctuated between 37 and 60 million in size for over a thousand years prior to the 17 th century; then for the first time experienced rapid growth and reached a size of over 400 million during the reign of the Qing Dynasty (17491851); but then had its growth slowed again between 1851 and 1949 as a consequence of the social turmoil caused by civil wars and imperialist invasions (Banister 1992). The establishment of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949 marked the beginning of its demographic transition, a process that distinguished China from the rest of world due to its extraordinarily rapid declines of mortality and fertility (see Fig. 8.1), neither of which would have been possible without strong government intervention.3 The Trend of Population Aging in Urban and Rural ChinaThe very success of Chinas mortality and fertility decline has accelerated the process of population aging in China. Using the urban/rural definition from the 1982 population census, Wang and Mason (2007) projected that 15 per cent of the urban population would be 65 years and older in 2017, while the same figure would not be achieved in rural China until twenty years later. However, massive rural to urban migration that started in the 1980s may very well change the scenario. It was conservatively estimated that the size of the “floating population” (“temporary” migrants) reached nearly 79 million, according to the 2000 census tabulation (Liang and Ma 2004). Taking net out-migration into account, Wang and Mason (Forthcoming) found that aging in rural China would occur much faster and sooner, with the proportion of the population aged 65+ reaching the level of the current urban population as early as 2009.4 Trend of Living ArrangementsStudies on living arrangements of the elderly population are essential to understand the structure of kin availability for support. Because coresidence with family members often means they are more likely to receive support, living arrangements were often viewed as an indicator for well-being, despite mixed empirical findings on the relationship between living arrangements and health (Lawton et al. 1984; Sarwari et al. 1998; Zunzunegui et al. 2001).Using census and survey data collected around2000, Zeng et al. (Forthcoming) macro-simulated thetrend in elderly living arrangements under the mediumassumptions on fertility, mortality, rural-urban migration,marriage and divorce. Despite being a conservativeestimate (given that it does not take changingpreference into account), their projection showed thatthe average household size would decrease from 3.46persons per household in 2000 to 2.86 in 2020 and 2.69in 2050 and that the proportion of the elderly aged 65+ living in “empty-nest” households would triple that of the 2000 level.5 Government and Institutional Support for ElderlyAs described above, the traditional family structureand family support system has undergone some major shifts in China. Facing the possibility of an undermined informal old age support system, it is imperative for the government to strengthen its role in public support. In the following section we outline three systems at different stages of policy development, including institutionalized care, health care and health insurance and old age social security.6 ConclusionAs recently as three decades ago, Chinas primary population problem was overpopulation. Paradoxically, successful implementation of the family planning policy has effectively controlled the population size but drastically speeded up the aging process, thereby shifting the concern from “too many children to support” to “too few children to support a rapidly aging population” (Kaneda 2006). With a falling dependency ratio and an increasing burden on the health care and social security programs, China is under enormous pressure to meet the demands of an aging society. This is a particularly challenging issue because its per capita income level is less than that of a quarter of the other aging but more developed nations (Population Reference Bureau 2006). China is thus confronting the concurrent tasks of economic development and dealing with