ARGUMENT题库+提纲+频率.doc

图例：黑色：一题重复绿色：两题重复蓝色：三题重复红色：四题及以上1. Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a Palean basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.a. The authors conclusion in the passage is that the new finding in another ancient village implied that the Palean baskets were not uniquely produced in Palea. The logic behind this conclusion is that first, the Brim River is very deep and broad; the only way to cross the river is to by boat; and no Palean boats had been found, so the Palean could never have crossed the river; So the basket must be made in Lithos.b. Beyond the authors logic, there are few assumptions that could be inferred: firstly, the Brim River is very deep and broad at ancient time. There is no any hint of time when describing the river in the passage, so we dont know whether this is the present Brim River or the ancient river. Jordan River, the river that was cut off and stand up in a heap to let the Israel people cross leading by Joshua in the Old Testament and the river that once baptized Jesus Christ in the New Testament time is now facing running out of water. Similarly, who could say that a river that was broad and deep now had been a great river for thousands of years?c. Even if we assume that the Brim River was broad and deep at that time, the author proposed another unjustifiable statement that the only way to cross the river is by boat, and this is only because the river is broad and deep. The author clearly underestimates the intelligence of ancient people: could they have built any bridge or similar to bridge to help them cross the river? If there is no bridge like thing, will the river be frozen in winter so they can walk across the river on the ice? Or could they use other method like putting things in the basket and push it across the river while not cross the river by themselves to exchange products? The author seems need to rule out all these possibilities to announce that the “only way is by boat”.d. We know that archaeologists always came to their conclusions by the present findings regardless of the future possibilities to find new evidence which could change their previous assumptions, and this is especially true in this case. The author said that no boat have been found at present and at last came to his conclusion that the baskets were not uniquely Palean. Is there any possibilities that they can find Palean boat in the future? Or Lithos boat since if Lithos people could cross the river the conclusion would also be changed? e. In conclusion, the author made several mistakes in his argument. In order to make his assertion more convincing, he could better consider other possibilities of the baskets appearing in Lithos, and eliminate them, and put his conclusion under the present time until new findings be made in the future.2. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individuals levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence). The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.Is this a relevant event or cause-effect event in monkeys? Like age older problemHumans and monkeys are not the same species. First born human have more resources from their parentsIt is not birth order but the numbers of offspring that affect the cortisol (lies in the mother); There is no necessary link between the cortisol level of mother and offspring.3. The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. relevant does not equal to cause and effect relationship (first sentence); its possible a new and better shopping centre just opened at that time2. The litter and vandalism need not to be caused by the skateboard users; it might be the amount of cleaners are reduced3. Prohibit skate boarding is not the only way to ameliorate the situation, it is crucial to improve their management of the shop4. like said before, this might not be caused by skateboarding; so if they want their business level return to previously high level, more things need to be done far beyond simply prohibit the skateboarding activitiy同171题4. The following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend.Of the two leading real estate firms in our townAdams Realty and Fitch RealtyAdams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitchs $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty.Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. the statistics listed above only proved that Adams is a larger company than Fitch, and we only know larger in the amount of agents and the average revenue. We dont know the specific services provided by the two companies, maybe the Fitchs services provided is more suitable than Adam for his friends house.2. Using 10 years ago to prove the current problem3. Selling house have more to relate to the house, not only the selling company5. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the islands moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seavilles town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. 第二，该市的总体mopeds由租赁公司提供的能占多少比例呢？难道没有私人的mopeds吗？如果有的话，就绝对不会是降低50%的数量了2. 即使是降低了50%的数量，也不意味着会降低50%的事故啊，可能车少了开的就会更快，反而会增加事故的严重性呢3. 又拿Seaville说事儿，不想说这个逻辑错误了6. Arctic deer live on islands in Canadas arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deers being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 同时出现并不代表是因果关系，虽然可能是一个原因，但是还有其他很多原因没有排除。首先是猎人的报告得属实吧，文中并没有指出之前的鹿大概有多少头，之后的鹿有多少头，猎人的报告毕竟不太靠得住，可能仅仅是鹿迁移出了猎人住的区域。2. 也可能是因为什么原因导致当地的水污染啊，出现天敌啊，流行病啊之类的。我们可以看出这个deer的生活环境要求相当高的。3. 也可能是因为被捕猎的原因，然后猎人把数据修改归罪于全球气候变暖。4. 还有，而且没有证据表明冰川已经融化到无法迁移的程度，即使已经融化到无法迁移了，那么气候变暖也可能会导致岛上的植被增加，从而够鹿吃的，反而不用迁移了，无法迁移并不一定意味着鹿会减少。7. The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.We recommend that Monarch Books open a caf in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the caf would attract more customers. Space could be made for the caf by discontinuing the childrens book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a caf will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own caf.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. 既然Monarch Books是以其售书广泛而著称，就更不能减少儿童类的书籍，因为这样的话可能就失去了它的特色。2. 10岁以下儿童比例的减少，并不意味着儿童类书籍不受欢迎，随着收入增加、儿童减少，可能花在每个儿童身上的钱就会更多，两个孩子要买吃的，一个孩子就可以把省下来的那份钱拿去买书，可能儿童书籍的销量反而上升。而且全国的孩子减少根本不能说明这个地区的情况。3. Regal Books也开了咖啡屋，但是文中也没提及效果怎么样，而且Monarch和Regal也许书店的定位根本不同，同样开咖啡屋不仅不能保证更有竞争力，反而会被人笑话模仿别人！8. The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckinghams enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 目前的学生人数正在增加，但是并不意味着这种趋势会一直下去，而且，就目前的人口增长趋势和老龄化倾向，目前的增加很可能很难维持下去。2. 即使人数会一直增加而且在下个50年里面翻一番，但是我们并不知道目前的学校宿舍够住多少学生，也许还可以使用很多年都够用。另一方面，文中说最近租金上涨，所以学生更可能选择住宿舍，但是这个时间上的差异让这两个论据不仅不能够共同论证，反而会有这样的可能，最近租金上涨，说不定以后就会下跌呢？而且以后的学生更喜欢出去住呢？50年后的事情谁知到。3. 作者希望用新宿舍来吸引学生入校，如果说有钱建宿舍的话，也许花在其他一些方面可能会收到更好的效果，比如扩大图书馆、改善现有宿舍条件等等。4. 还有新建宿舍楼是否可行，学校有没有地方、资金多少等等，都是问题。9. Natures Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Natures Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsvilles schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.1. 文章说NW连锁店在那些健康生活的社区中销量更好，这个结论是如何得出来的呢？是否可靠？一个社区影响销量的因素有很多，也许健康生活恶化销量好只是相关关系，缺乏因果的必然联系。2. 文中列举了三条事实来说明P地区居民健康生活很好，但是这些证据并不一定能够证明，也许只是因为P地区之前生活方式都很不健康，所以才搞运动，导致现在这样的局面，并不知道是否会长久。3. 文中说P地区现在商品买的很好，说明NW可能会遇到很多竞争对手。健身俱乐部生意好，可能说明居民更喜欢去俱乐部健身，而不是到这类商店里面买东西。而且人数在增加，但是绝对人数有多少呢？并不知道。4. 最后一个儿童参与的项目中，项目可能已经有专门的合作商了，所以NW连锁店不会从中获取任何好处，而且也不知道这些项目未来会怎样。10. Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Fields conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.1. 首先两个研究相隔20年，20年间可能产生了一些风俗改变。2. 调查法是很容易误用的，不如观察法客观。首先是调查法可调查的范围有限，只能问一些可以用语言回答的东西，但是具体该岛民的生活方式最好还是通过细致的观察来完成。3. 调查法的问题可能有误导性，比如如果问题中问道更多关于父母的事情，回答者自然就会花更多的时间来讨论父母的事情4. 即使回答者话更多的时间讨论父母的事情，也不意味着是由父母带大的，可能只是因为他们和自己的父母的熟悉程度高于其他人的熟悉程度，但是仍然是由部落带大的。5. 最后就算是F错K对，也只能说明F的研究做的不好，不能说明方法的优劣。11. The council of Maple County, concerned about the countys becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.1. 不支持改革：M村是否真的过快发展以至于需要采取措施来限制发展？可能是当前整个经济发展的大环境比较好，即使当前的M村的经济发展确实比较高，也不能算是过热，政府没有必要去干预当前的经济发展。另外，政府的干预有可能挫伤人民发展经济的积极性。2. 是否真的不会导致房价的上升？10年前C村的情况和当前是否一样？可能当时C村的居民住房消费已经基本饱和，家家都有房，所以没有必要再买房子，所以房价没有大幅提高。3. 限制农村发展过热难道只有限制现存耕地发展这一种方法吗？可以用allowance的方式鼓励人民将更多的钱投入到其他收效慢的领域。这样既能保证土地的价格不至于因为限制经济而增加也能起到防止经济过热的情况。12. Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by 30 percent. Potential employers, looking at this dramatic rise in grades, believe that grades at Omega are inflated and do not accurately reflect student achievement; as a result, Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should terminate student evaluation of professors.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1. 学生成绩上涨和评价制实行并无必然联系。可能是因为其他的教学改革、评分变化之类的事情，而且已经是15年前了2. 雇佣者真的认为O大学是作假的吗？哪里来的证据？怎么得出来的结论呢？3. 即使雇佣者认为分数造假，也不说明是因为这个评价制导致的，可能是自己之前