America’s Next President Must Embrace(拥抱) the Brics(金砖四国,巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国).docx

Americas Next President Must Embrace（拥抱） the Brics（金砖四国，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）美国下任总统须重视金砖四国Whoever moves into the Oval Office（白宫椭圆形办公室） in January 2009 will have to deal with a significantly different global economy from the one George W. Bush inherited（遗传的，通过继承得到的） just eight years earlier and will need to forge a very different set of policies to address it. The most dramatic changes are that the emerging（新兴的） economies most notably Brazil, Russia, India and China (the Brics) and the leading oil exporters now play a far greater role in the world economy than they did then, and that the US is now a great deal more dependent on their financial decisions, economic policies, capital and markets.明年1月，无论是谁入主白宫，都将面对与8年前乔治布什(George W. Bush)上台时截然不同的全球经济形势也将需要制定一套截然不同的应对政策。最显著的变化是新兴经济体尤其是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国（即“金砖四国”）以及主要的石油出口国如今在世界经济中发挥着比那时大得多的作用，美国对新兴经济体金融决策、经济政策、资本和市场的依赖也大为提高。Since 2001, the US share of world gross domestic（国内的） product has fallen from 34 percent to 28 percent; the Brics has risen from 8 percent to 16 percent. Chinas reserves have rocketed from $200bn (127bn, 101bn) to $1,800bn, Brazils from $35bn to $200bn, Russias from $35bn to $500bn and Indias from $50bn to $300bn. Because of Americas very low savings rate, US consumers, companies, financial institutions（制度，建立） and the federal government must borrow heavily from these countries.从2001年至今，美国在全球国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的比重已从34%下降到28%，金砖四国的比重则从8%上升到16%。中国的外汇储备从2000亿美元猛增至1.8万亿美元；巴西的外汇储备从350亿美元增至2000亿美元；俄罗斯从350亿美元增至5000亿美元；印度从500亿美元增至3000亿美元。由于美国储蓄率极低，美国的消费者、企业、金融机构和联邦政府均必须向这些国家大举借债。The incoming US administration will need to make significant changes in domestic policy and adopt a more collaborative approach to the global economy to take advantage of new opportunities and meet new challenges. 美国下届政府必须在国内政策上作出重大转变，对全球经济采取更合作的态度，以抓住新机遇，迎接新挑战。 First, Americas political leaders must recognise that unless recent improvements in the countrys trade balance can be sustained and accelerated, and domestic savings rise sharply, the US will remain heavily dependent on foreign capital in the form of purchases of government or corporate bonds, stocks and direct investment. US policymakers will need to find ways to increase domestic savings, shrink the federal deficit（赤字，不足额）, reduce the heavy reliance（信心，信赖） of American consumers on credit and curb oil imports. Without these measures, massive amounts of foreign capital will be needed for years to come.首先，美国的政治领导人必须承认，除非近期美国贸易余额改善的势头能够得以维系并加速，国内储蓄大幅增加，否则美国将继续严重依赖于以购买政府或企业债券、股票和直接投资等形式进入的外国资本。美国的政策制定者必须设法增加国内储蓄，缩小联邦赤字，降低美国消费者对信贷的高度倚赖，约束石油进口。如果不采取这些措施，美国在未来的许多年内都将需要大量的外国资本。 In such circumstances（环境，情况）, the US must remain attractive to foreign capital. Sound finances, enabling（授权的） the US to borrow on reasonable terms, will remain an important factor in national strength. Frequent financial crises, large trade imbalances, a series of outsized（特大的，特大号的） budget deficits and failure to put social security and Medicare（美国，国家老年人医疗保险制度） on a more sound financial footing could undermine（不民主的） investor confidence. That would discourage overseas（海外的，国外的） investments and the willingness of central banks to hold dollar reserves, causing a plunge in US financial markets and the dollar, thereby（从此，因而） jeopardising（危及，使.受危险） Americas growth.在这种形势下，美国必须保持对外国资本的吸引力。健全的金融体系，是美国能够以合理条款举债的前提，今后仍将是国家实力中的一个重要因素。如果金融危机频发，贸易严重失衡，预算赤字连年超标，社会保障和医疗保险没有更健全的财政基础，就有可能削弱投资者信心。这将阻碍外国投资，降低外国央行持有美元储备的意愿，导致美国金融市场和美元暴跌，从而危及美国的经济增长。 Second, the US needs to boost its own competitiveness and further open foreign markets for its goods and services.其次，美国必须提高自身竞争力，进一步打开外国的商品和服务市场。 A robust（强健的，健康的） response requires improved training, especially in maths, engineering, physics and science. Critical（鉴定的，批评的） also is acceleration of investment in research and development to create competitive new jobs, products and industries. This is especially true in energy, where new sources and new technologies are urgently needed. 要做出有力的回应，就需要加强培训，尤其是在数学、工程、物理和科学等方面。加快研发投资，以创造出有竞争力的新职位、新产品和新产业，尤其是在急需新来源和新技术的能源行业。 Washington should also offer incentives（动机，刺激，激励的） for the private sector（部门，扇形） to invest in physical infrastructure and provide more reliable assistance, and wage, pension and health insurance security for individuals displaced from jobs. 美国政府还应激励私人部门投资于有形基础设施，为失业者提供更可靠的帮助以及工资、养老和医疗保险等保障。 Last, the new president must lead the world to a more representative global economic policy architecture（建筑学） to reflect the ongoing（不间断的，进行的） shifts in financial wealth, commodity（商品，货物） power and trade flows. This must give the Brics and other dynamic emerging economies a greater say in shaping the rules of the system while ensuring that they take greater responsibility for it as large stakeholders（利益相关者）. This means increasing their role in the International Monetary(货币的，财政的) Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organisation, as well as enlarging participation in the Group of Eight leading industrialised（使工业化） nations. 最后，美国下任总统必须领导世界打造一个更具代表性的全球经济政策体系，以反映当前在金融财富、商品实力和贸易流等方面的变化。在制定全球体系的规则时，必须给予金砖四国及其他蓬勃发展的新兴经济体更大的话语权，并确保它们在享有更大权益的同时，相应地承担起更大的责任。这意味着提高它们在国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行(WB)和世界贸易组织(WTO)中的作用，扩大它们对八国集团(G8)的参与。 The worlds economies have reached a new level of interdependence（互相依赖）. The new president should reflect this fact by pursuing policies that sustain investor confidence, increase trade opportunities and the number of Americans who benefit from them, more effectively mobilise（动员，调动） Americas human and financial capital to boost competitiveness（竞争力，好竞争）, and engage（吸引，占用，使参加） in a collaborative（合作的，协作的） effort to restructure the global policy architecture. Globalisation（全球化） is unlikely