公司理财第九章ppt课件.ppt

StockValuation Chapter9 Copyright 2010bytheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved McGraw Hill Irwin KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowgrowthopportunitiesaffectstockvaluesUnderstandthePEratioUnderstandhowstockmarketswork ChapterOutline 9 1ThePresentValueofCommonStocks9 2EstimatesofParametersintheDividendDiscountModel9 3GrowthOpportunities9 4Price EarningsRatio9 5TheStockMarkets 9 1ThePVofCommonStocks Thevalueofanyassetisthepresentvalueofitsexpectedfuturecashflows Stockownershipproducescashflowsfrom DividendsCapitalGainsValuationofDifferentTypesofStocksZeroGrowthConstantGrowthDifferentialGrowth Case1 ZeroGrowth Assumethatdividendswillremainatthesamelevelforever Sincefuturecashflowsareconstant thevalueofazerogrowthstockisthepresentvalueofaperpetuity Case2 ConstantGrowth Sincefuturecashflowsgrowataconstantrateforever thevalueofaconstantgrowthstockisthepresentvalueofagrowingperpetuity Assumethatdividendswillgrowataconstantrate g forever i e ConstantGrowthExample SupposeBigD Inc justpaidadividendof 50 Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2 peryear Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15 onassetsofthisrisklevel howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor P0 50 1 02 15 02 3 92 Case3 DifferentialGrowth Assumethatdividendswillgrowatdifferentratesintheforeseeablefutureandthenwillgrowataconstantratethereafter TovalueaDifferentialGrowthStock weneedto Estimatefuturedividendsintheforeseeablefuture EstimatethefuturestockpricewhenthestockbecomesaConstantGrowthStock case2 Computethetotalpresentvalueoftheestimatedfuturedividendsandfuturestockpriceattheappropriatediscountrate Case3 DifferentialGrowth Assumethatdividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter Case3 DifferentialGrowth Dividendswillgrowatrateg1forNyearsandgrowatrateg2thereafter 012 NN 1 Case3 DifferentialGrowth Wecanvaluethisasthesumof aT yearannuitygrowingatrateg1 plusthediscountedvalueofaperpetuitygrowingatrateg2thatstartsinyearT 1 Case3 DifferentialGrowth Consolidatinggives Or wecan cashflow itout ADifferentialGrowthExample Acommonstockjustpaidadividendof 2 Thedividendisexpectedtogrowat8 for3years thenitwillgrowat4 inperpetuity Whatisthestockworth Thediscountrateis12 WiththeFormula WithCashFlows 01234 0123 Theconstantgrowthphasebeginninginyear4canbevaluedasagrowingperpetuityattime3 9 2EstimatesofParameters Thevalueofafirmdependsuponitsgrowthrate g anditsdiscountrate R Wheredoesgcomefrom g Retentionratio Returnonretainedearnings WhereDoesRComeFrom Thediscountratecanbebrokenintotwoparts ThedividendyieldThegrowthrate individends Inpractice thereisagreatdealofestimationerrorinvolvedinestimatingR UsingtheDGMtoFindR StartwiththeDGM RearrangeandsolveforR 9 3GrowthOpportunities GrowthopportunitiesareopportunitiestoinvestinpositiveNPVprojects Thevalueofafirmcanbeconceptualizedasthesumofthevalueofafirmthatpaysout100 ofitsearningsasdividendsplusthenetpresentvalueofthegrowthopportunities NPVGOModel Example ConsiderafirmthathasforecastedEPSof 5 adiscountrateof16 andiscurrentlypricedat 75pershare Wecancalculatethevalueofthefirmasacashcow So NPVGOmustbe 75 31 25 43 75 RetentionRateandFirmValue Anincreaseintheretentionratewill ReducethedividendpaidtoshareholdersIncreasethefirm sgrowthrateThesehaveoffsettinginfluencesonstockpriceWhichonedominates IfROE R thenincreasedretentionincreasesfirmvaluesincereinvestedcapitalearnsmorethanthecostofcapital 9 4Price EarningsRatio Manyanalystsfrequentlyrelateearningspersharetoprice Theprice earningsratioiscalculatedasthecurrentstockpricedividedbyannualEPS TheWallStreetJournaluseslast4quarter searnings PEandNPVGO Recall DividingeverytermbyEPSprovidesthefollowingdescriptionofthePEratio So afirm sPEratioispositivelyrelatedtogrowthopportunitiesandnegativelyrelatedtorisk R 9 5TheStockMarkets Dealersvs BrokersNewYorkStockExchange NYSE LargeststockmarketintheworldLicenseHolders formerly Members EntitledtobuyorsellontheexchangefloorCommissionbrokersSpecialistsFloorbrokersFloortradersOperationsFlooractivity NASDAQ Notaphysicalexchange computer basedquotationsystemMultiplemarketmakersElectronicCommunicationsNetworksThreelevelsofinformationLevel1 medianquotes registeredrepresentativesLevel2 viewquotes brokers dealersLevel3 viewandupdatequotes dealersonlyLargeportionoftechnologystocks StockMarketReporting QuickQuiz Whatdeter