公司理财第十版PPTChap004PPT.ppt

Chapter4Long TermFinancialPlanningandGrowth McGraw Hill Irwin Copyright 2013byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 交流学习PPT KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandthefinancialplanningprocessandhowdecisionsareinterrelatedBeabletodevelopafinancialplanusingthepercentageofsalesapproachBeabletocomputeexternalfinancingneededandidentifythedeterminantsofafirm sgrowthUnderstandthefourmajordecisionareasinvolvedinlong termfinancialplanningUnderstandhowcapitalstructurepolicyanddividendpolicyaffectafirm sabilitytogrow 4 2 交流学习PPT ChapterOutline WhatIsFinancialPlanning FinancialPlanningModels AFirstLookThePercentageofSalesApproachExternalFinancingandGrowthSomeCaveatsRegardingFinancialPlanningModels 4 3 交流学习PPT ElementsofFinancialPlanning Investmentinnewassets determinedbycapitalbudgetingdecisionsDegreeoffinancialleverage determinedbycapitalstructuredecisionsCashpaidtoshareholders determinedbydividendpolicydecisionsLiquidityrequirements determinedbynetworkingcapitaldecisions 4 4 交流学习PPT FinancialPlanningProcess PlanningHorizon dividedecisionsintoshort rundecisions usuallynext12months andlong rundecisions usually2 5years Aggregation combinecapitalbudgetingdecisionsintoonelargeprojectAssumptionsandScenariosMakerealisticassumptionsaboutimportantvariablesRunseveralscenarioswhereyouvarytheassumptionsbyreasonableamountsDetermine ataminimum worstcase normalcase andbestcasescenarios 4 5 交流学习PPT RoleofFinancialPlanning Examineinteractions helpmanagementseetheinteractionsbetweendecisionsExploreoptions givemanagementasystematicframeworkforexploringitsopportunitiesAvoidsurprises helpmanagementidentifypossibleoutcomesandplanaccordinglyEnsurefeasibilityandinternalconsistency helpmanagementdetermineifgoalscanbeaccomplishedandifthevariousstated andunstated goalsofthefirmareconsistentwithoneanother 4 6 交流学习PPT FinancialPlanningModelIngredients SalesForecast manycashflowsdependdirectlyonthelevelofsales oftenestimatedusingsalesgrowthrate ProFormaStatements settinguptheplanusingprojectedfinancialstatementsallowsforconsistencyandeaseofinterpretationAssetRequirements theadditionalassetsthatwillberequiredtomeetsalesprojectionsFinancialRequirements theamountoffinancingneededtopayfortherequiredassetsPlugVariable determinedbymanagementdecidingwhattypeoffinancingwillbeusedtomakethebalancesheetbalanceEconomicAssumptions explicitassumptionsaboutthecomingeconomicenvironment 4 7 交流学习PPT Example HistoricalFinancialStatements 4 8 交流学习PPT Example ProFormaIncomeStatement InitialAssumptionsRevenueswillgrowat15 2 000 1 15 Allitemsaretieddirectlytosales andthecurrentrelationshipsareoptimalConsequently allotheritemswillalsogrowat15 4 9 交流学习PPT Example ProFormaBalanceSheet CaseIDividendsaretheplugvariable soequityincreasesat15 Dividends 460 NI 370 increaseinequity 90dividendspaidCaseIIDebtistheplugvariableandnodividendsarepaidDebt 1 150 600 460 90Repay400 90 310indebt 4 10 交流学习PPT PercentageofSalesApproach Someitemsvarydirectlywithsales whileothersdonotIncomeStatementCostsmayvarydirectlywithsales ifthisisthecase thentheprofitmarginisconstantDepreciationandinterestexpensemaynotvarydirectlywithsales ifthisisthecase thentheprofitmarginisnotconstantDividendsareamanagementdecisionandgenerallydonotvarydirectlywithsales thisinfluencesadditionstoretainedearningsBalanceSheetInitiallyassumeallassets includingfixed varydirectlywithsalesAccountspayablewillalsonormallyvarydirectlywithsalesNotespayable long termdebtandequitygenerallydonotvarydirectlywithsalesbecausetheydependonmanagementdecisionsaboutcapitalstructureThechangeintheretainedearningsportionofequitywillcomefromthedividenddecision 4 11 交流学习PPT Example IncomeStatement AssumeSalesgrowat10 DividendPayoutRate 50 4 12 交流学习PPT Example BalanceSheet 4 13 交流学习PPT Example ExternalFinancingNeeded Thefirmneedstocomeupwithanadditional 200indebtorequitytomakethebalancesheetbalanceTA TL OE 10 450 10 250 200Chooseplugvariable 200EFN Borrowmoreshort term NotesPayable Borrowmorelong term LTDebt Sellmorecommonstock CS APIC Decreasedividendpayout whichincreasestheAdditionsToRetainedEarnings 4 14 交流学习PPT Example OperatingatLessthanFullCapacity Supposethatthecompanyiscurrentlyoperatingat80 capacity FullCapacitysales 5000 8 6 250Estimatedsales 5 500 sowewouldstillonlybeoperatingat88 Therefore noadditionalfixedassetswouldberequired ProformaTotalAssets 6 050 4 000 10 050TotalLiabilitiesandOwners Equity 10 250Chooseplugvariable for 200EXCESSfinancing Repaysomeshort termdebt decreaseNotesPayable Repaysomelong termdebt decreaseLTDebt Buybackstock decreaseCS APIC Paymoreindividends reduceAdditionsToRetainedEarnings Increasecashaccount 4 15 交流学习PPT WorktheWebExample Lookingforestimatesofcompanygrowthrates Whatdotheanalystshavetosay CheckoutYahooFinance clickthewebsurfer enteracompanytickerandfollowthe AnalystEstimates link 4 16 交流学习PPT GrowthandExternalFinancing Atlowgrowthlevels internalfinancing retainedearnings mayexceedtherequiredinvestmentinassetsAsthegrowthrateincreases theinternalfinancingwillnotbeenough andthefirmwillhavetogotothecapitalmarketsformoneyExaminingtherelationshipbetweengrowthandexternalfinancingrequiredisausefultoolinlong rangeplanning 4 17 交流学习PPT TheInternalGrowthRate Theinternalgrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmcangrowassetsusingretainedearningsastheonlysourceoffinancing UsingtheinformationfromTasha sToyEmporiumROA 1200 9500 1263B 5 4 18 交流学习PPT TheSustainableGrowthRate Thesustainablegrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmcangrowbyusinginternallygeneratedfundsandissuingdebttomaintainaconstantdebtratio UsingTasha sToyEmporiumROE 1200 4100 2927b 5 4 19 交流学习PPT DeterminantsofGrowth Profitmargin operatingefficiencyTotalassetturnover assetuseefficiencyFinancialleverage choiceofoptimaldebtratioDividendpolicy choiceofhowmuchtopaytoshareholdersversusreinvestinginthefirm 4 20 交流学习PPT ImportantQuestions Itisimportanttorememberthatweareworkingwithaccountingnumbers therefore wemustaskourselvessomeimportantquestionsaswegothroughtheplanningprocess Howdoesourplanaffectthetimingandriskofourcashflows Doestheplanpointoutinconsistenciesinourgoals Ifwefollowthisplan willwemaximizeowners wealth 4 21 交流学习PPT QuickQuiz Whatisthepurposeoflong rangeplanning Whatarethemajordecisionareasinvolvedindevelopingaplan Whatisthepercentageofsalesapp