宏观经济学课件及习题第4章.ppt

EconomicGrowth Productivity andLivingStandards ImportantConcepts Compoundinterest复利Diminishingreturnstocapital资本收益递减Entrepreneur企业家 Chapteroutline ThesourcesofeconomicgrowthandrisinglivingstandardsinthemodernworldAnalyzeeachoftherefactorsanddiscussitsimplicationsforgovernmentpoliciestopromotegrowth Introduction Whichwouldyouratherbe Anordinary middleclassAmericanlivingtoday ortherichestpersoninAmericaatthetimeofGeorgeWashington YoucanthinkofenormouschangeinthewayaveragepeopleliveThesechangesaredueinlargeparttoscientificadvances Newscientificknowledgeleadstowidespreadimprovementsinlivingstandardsonlywhenitiscommerciallyapplied theremarkableriseinlivingstandards therecord CompoundinterestWhynationsbecomerich thecrucialroleofaveragelaborproductivity RealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries 1870 2003 in2000U S Dollars Country Australia5 5127 2369 36917 67028 3121 22 1Canada2 3285 5098 90619 88229 2011 92 3France2 2914 4846 16418 13826 1761 82 8Germany1 1522 2184 78517 22225 2712 33 2Italy2 8524 0185 12816 91225 4581 73 1Japan9311 7632 14116 32926 6362 64 9UnitedKingdom3 8925 9768 70916 55726 8521 52 1UnitedStates2 8876 85212 11022 83535 4881 92 0 Annual change1950 2003 Annual change1870 2003 1870 1913 1950 1979 2003 RealGDPperPersoninFiveIndustrializedCountries 1870 2003 ObservationThevariety quality andquantityofgoodsandservicesincreasedenormouslyduringthe19thand20thcenturies asreflectedinrealpercapitaGDP RealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries 1870 2000 in1995U S Dollars Country Australia5 6267 3859 56118 03324 7081 11 9Canada2 4475 7919 36220 89926 6041 82 1France2 2494 4016 04917 80122 4471 82 6Germany1 2052 3205 00518 01423 2472 33 1Italy2 2483 1674 04213 33121 9301 83 4Japan9631 8252 21616 89924 7722 54 8UnitedKingdom3 5005 3747 83214 88921 1421 42 0UnitedStates2 8436 74511 92122 48032 6291 92 0 Annual change1950 2000 Annual change1870 2000 1870 1913 1950 1979 2000 Observations1870 AustraliahadthehighestpercapitalrealGDPandJapanthelowest2000realpercapitaGDPinJapanexceededAustraliaNotethedifferenceinthegrowthrateof1 1 forAustraliaand2 5 forJapan RealGDPperPersonInSelectedCountries 1870 2003 in2000U S Dollars Country Australia5 5127 2369 36917 67028 3121 22 1Canada2 3285 5098 90619 88229 2011 92 3France2 2914 4846 16418 13826 1761 82 8Germany1 1522 2184 78517 22225 2712 33 2Italy2 8524 0185 12816 91225 4581 73 1Japan9311 7632 14116 32926 6362 64 9UnitedKingdom3 8925 9768 70916 55726 8521 52 1UnitedStates2 8876 85212 11022 83535 4881 92 0 Annual change1950 2003 Annual change1870 2003 1870 1913 1950 1979 2003 Observations2000RealPerCapitalGDPinJapanwasgreaterthanAustralia2003Australia sRealPerCapitaGDPwasgreaterthanJapanSmallchangesingrowthratesmakeabigdifference CompoundInterestThepaymentofinterestnotonlyontheoriginaldepositbutonallpreviouslyaccumulatedinterest Why Small DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatter Why Small DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatter CompoundInterestSuppose In1800 10deposited 4 interestIn2005theaccountisworth 25 507 50 10 x 1 04 205 31 033 77 Why Small DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatter Interestrate Valueof 10after205years 2 579 484 31 033 776 1 540 644 29 ObservationsAsmallsumcompoundedoverlongperiodscangreatlyincreaseinvalueSmalldifferencesininteresthaveaverylargeimpactonvalue CompoundInterestEconomicgrowthratesaresimilartocompoundinterestrates Governmentpoliciesthataffectthelong termgrowthratebyasmallamountwillhaveamajoreconomicimpact WhyNationsBecomeRich TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivity QuestionWhatdeterminesanation seconomicgrowthrate Somedefinitions Y realGDPN numberofemployedworkersPOP totalpopulation RealGDPPerPerson RealGDPPerPerson ObservationsRealoutput persondependson Howmucheachworkercanproduce Thepercentofthepopulationthatisworking RealGDPperPersonandAverageLaborProductivityintheU S 1960 2004 RealGDPperpersongrewby166 between1960and2004 ShareoftheU S PopulationEmployed 1960 2004 Increasesinbothlaborproductivityandtheworkingpeoplecontributetothisriseinlivingstandard WhyNationsBecomeRich TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivity Whatdeterminesanation seconomicgrowthrate Inthelongrun increasesinoutputperpersonariseprimarilyfromincreasesinaveragelaborproductivity TheDeterminantsofAverageLaborProductivity A HumanCapitalThetalents education training andskillsofworkers ExampleLucyandEthelontheassemblylineLucyandEthelwrapandboxchocolatecandies Lucy anovice wraps100candies hror4 000 weekEthel receivedon the jobtraining wraps300 hror12 000 weekAveragelaborproductivity week 16 000 2 8 000 weekor16 000 80hrs 200candies hrEthel withtraining ismoreproductivethanLucy B PhysicalCapitalWorkerproductivitydependsnotonlyontheirskills humancapital butonthetools physicalcapital theyhavetoworkwith ExampleLucyandEthelgetautomatedCandyCobuysacandy wrappingmachineoperatedbyoneworkerAnuntrainedworkerusingthemachinecanwrap500candies hrLucyusesthemachineandEthelwrapsbyhand ExampleLucy sweeklyoutput 40hrsx500 20 000candiesEthel sweeklyoutput 40hrsx300 12 000candiesTotaloutput 32 000candies weekoraveragelaborproductivity 16 000candies weekor32 000 80hrs 400candies hr Doubletheaverageproductivitywiththemachine AverageLaborProductivityandCapitalperWorkerin15Countries 1990 Capital Output andProductivityintheCandy WrappingFactory 1 Numberofmachines capital 016 00080200132 00080400240 00080500340 00080500 2 Totalnumberofcandieswrappedeachweek output 3 Totalhoursworkedperweek 4 Candieswrappedperhourworked productivity ObservationsForagivennumberofworkers addingcapitalwillgenerallyincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivityThemorecapitalthatisalreadyinplace thesmallerthebenefitsofaddingextracapital DiminishingReturnstoCapitalIftheamountoflaborandotherinputsemployedisheldconstant thenthegreatertheamountofcapitalalreadyinuse thelessanadditionalunitofcapitaladdstoproduction PhysicalCapitalPublicpolicydesignedtostimulategrowthshouldconsiderthat Increasingtheamountofcapitalavailabletotheworkforcewilltendtoincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivity Thedegreetowhichproductivitycanbeincreasedbyanexpandingstockofcapitalislimited C LandandOtherNaturalResourcesGenerally anabundanceofnaturalresourcesincreasestheproductivityofworkers Resourcescanbeobtainedthroughinternationalmarkets D TechnologyNewtechnologiesarethesinglemostimportantsourceofproductivityimprovement Anewtechnologywillexpandtheproductivityinmanysectorsbystimulatinggreaterspecialization E EntrepreneurshipandManagementEntrepreneursPeoplewhocreateneweconomicenterprises EntrepreneurshipandManagementFactorsinfluencingentrepreneurshipTaxationRegulationSocialCustoms EntrepreneurshipandManagementManagement Influenceproductivitybyimplementingmoreefficientmethodsofproduction F ThePoliticalandLegalEnvironmentEstablish Well definedpropertyrightsMaintainpoliticalstabilityPromotefreeandopenexchangeofideas TheCostsofEconomicGrowth Theopportunitycostofincreasingtheproductionofcapitalgoodsis Lessconsumergoods Reducedleisuretime worker ssafety andhealth ThecostofR D Thecostofeducation humancapital WhatDoYouThink Dothebenefitsofeconomicgrowthexceedthecosts PromotingEconomicGrowth PoliciestoincreasehumancapitalPoliciesthatpromotesavingandinvestmentPoliciesthatsupportresearchanddevelopmentThelegalandpoliticalframework Why