HO3e_ch8哈伯德宏观经济学.ppt

CHAPTER 20 FernandoQuijano Preparedby UnemploymentandInflation Theproblemsinthenewspaperindustrywillultimatelyleavethousandsofpeopleoutofwork Shouldyouchangeyourcareerplansifyougraduateduringarecession YouroptionsCheckyouranswersagainstthetextbookviews ChapterOutlineandLearningObjectives CHAPTER 20 UnemploymentandInflation IntendedLearningOutcomes ILOs DefineUnemploymentrateandInflationrateIdentifythreetypesofunemploymentMeasuringofpricelevelUsepriceindexestoadjustfortheeffectsofinflationDistinguishthedifferencebetweennominalinterestrateandrealinterestrate TheMiseryIndex UnemploymentandInflation Unemploymentandinflationaretwoimportantmacroeconomicissuesconcernedbythepublic businessandgovernment Intheshortrun thesetwoindexes variables roughlyshowthestateoftheeconomy Inthelongrun realGDPperpersondeterminesthesuccessoftheeconomy EachmonthBLSreleasesdataonunemploymentrateandinflationrate MeasuringtheUnemploymentRate MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateintwoways HouseholdSurveyEstablishmentSurvey MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate TheHouseholdSurvey Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Employmentandunemploymentintheprevious4weeksEmployed workedandgetpaidduringtheweekbeforethesurveyortemporarilyawayfromjobsforillness onvacation onstrikeetc unemployed didn twork butavailableforworkandhadactivelylookedforajobduringtheprevious4weeksLaborforce employed unemployedworkersintheeconomy Therestoftheworking agepopulationisnotinthelaborforceDiscouragedworkers 就业意欲丧失者 Peoplewhoareavailableforworkbuthavenotlookedforajobduringthepreviousfourweeksbecausetheybelievenojobsareavailableforthem FIGURE20 1 TheEmploymentStatusoftheCivilianWorking AgePopulation July2009 MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate TheHouseholdSurvey InJuly2009 theworking agepopulationoftheUnitedStateswas235 9million Theworking agepopulationisdividedintothoseinthelaborforce 154 5million andthosenotinthelaborforce 81 4million Thelaborforceisdividedintotheemployed 140 0million andtheunemployed 14 5million Thosenotinthelaborforcearedividedintothosenotavailableforwork 75 0million andthoseavailableforworkbutnotcurrentlyworking 6 4million Finally thoseavailableforworkbutnotinthelaborforcearedividedintodiscouragedworkers 0 8million andthosenotcurrentlylookingforworkforotherreasons 5 6million Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate Theunemploymentratemeasuresthepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployed TheHouseholdSurvey Thelaborforceparticipationratemeasuresthepercentageoftheworking agepopulationinthelaborforce Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate ProblemswithMeasuringtheUnemploymentRate Theunemploymentrateisnotaperfectmeasureofthecurrentstateofjoblessnessintheeconomy Recession unemployedbecamediscouragedworkersCountingpeoplewithapart timejobasemployedInaccurateresponsestothesurveyTheunemploymentrateprovidessomeusefulinformationabouttheemploymentsituationinthecountry butitisfarfromanexactmeasureofjoblessnessintheeconomy Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE WhyWasMaleUnemploymentSoHighDuringtheRecentRecession YOURTURN Testyourunderstandingbydoingrelatedproblem1 8attheendofthischapter Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Employmentintheindustriesthatwerehitparticularlyhardbytherecessionof2007 2009 construction financialservices andmanufacturing isdisproportionatelymale whileemploymentinindustriesthatfaredrelativelywellduringtherecession suchasmedicalservicesandeducation isdisproportionatelyfemale Table20 1 DurationofUnemployment MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate HowLongArePeopleTypicallyUnemployed Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Table20 2 HouseholdandEstablishmentSurveyDataforJuneandJuly2009 MeasuringtheUnemploymentRateandtheLaborForceParticipationRate TheEstablishmentSurvey AnotherMeasureofEmployment Defineunemploymentrateandlaborforceparticipationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed 20 1LEARNINGOBJECTIVE FIGURE20 4 TheAnnualUnemploymentRateintheUnitedStates 1950 2008 20 2LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Identifythethreetypesofunemployment Theunemploymentraterisesduringrecessionsandfallsduringexpansion Shadedareasindicaterecessions TypesofUnemployment FrictionalUnemploymentandJobSearch Frictionalunemployment 摩擦性失业 Short termunemploymentthatarisesfromtheprocessofmatchingworkerswithjobs short term unavoidable TypesofUnemployment Structuralunemployment 结构性失业 Unemploymentarisingfromapersistentmismatchbetweentheskillsandattributesofworkersandtherequirementsofjobs long term unavoidable Cyclicalunemployment 周期性失业 Unemploymentcausedbyabusinesscyclerecession businesscycle CyclicalUnemployment StructuralUnemployment 20 2LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Identifythethreetypesofunemployment Naturalrateofunemployment 自然失业率 Thenormalrateofunemployment consistingoffrictionalunemploymentplusstructuralunemployment Theeconomyissaidtobeatfullemployment FullEmployment TypesofUnemployment 20 2LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Identifythethreetypesofunemployment UnemploymentInsuranceandOtherPaymentstotheUnemployed GovernmentPoliciesandtheUnemploymentRate ExplainingUnemployment IntheUnitedStatesandmostotherindustrialcountries theunemployedareeligibleforunemploymentinsurancepaymentsfromthegovernment IntheUnitedStates thesepaymentsaregenerallyequaltoabouthalftheaveragewage Unemploymentinsurancehelpstheunemployedmaintaintheirincomeandspending whichlessensthepersonalhardshipofbeingunemployedandalsohelpsreducetheseverityofrecessions Explainwhatfactorsdeterminetheunemploymentrate 20 3LEARNINGOBJECTIVE MinimumWageLaws GovernmentPoliciesandtheUnemploymentRate ExplainingUnemployment In1938 thefederalgovernmentenactedanationalminimumwagelaw Iftheminimumwageissetabovethemarketwagedeterminedbythedemandandsupplyoflabor thequantityoflaborsuppliedwillbegreaterthanthequantityoflabordemanded Economistsagreethatthecurrentminimumwageisabovethemarketwageforsomeworkers buttheydisagreeontheamountofunemploymentthathasresulted Explainwhatfactorsdeterminetheunemploymentrate 20 3LEARNINGOBJECTIVE EfficiencyWages EfficiencywageAhigher than marketwagethatafirmpaystoincreaseworkerproductivity LaborUnions ExplainingUnemployment Laborunionsareorganizationsofworkersthatbargainwithemployersforhigherwagesandbetterworkingconditionsfortheirmembers Explainwhatfactorsdeterminetheunemploymentrate 20 3LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Doyouagreewiththeauthors viewsaboutthedeterminantsofunemploymentrate Inflation MeasuringInflation PricelevelAmeasureoftheaveragepricesofgoodsandservicesintheeconomy InflationrateThepercentageincreaseinthepricelevelfromoneyeartothenext adirectmeasureofpricelevel GDPdeflator CPIandPPIarebothmeasuresofpricelevel GDPdeflator thebroadestmeasure includingallfinalgoodsandservices CPI onlyincludinggoodsandservicespurchasedbythetypicalhousehold anindexofcost of living PPI includingintermediategoodsbyproducers anindexofcost of production 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed MeasuringInflation Consumerpriceindex CPI 消费者价格指数 Anaverageofthepricesofthegoodsandservicespurchasedbythetypicalurbanfamilyoffour TheConsumerPriceIndex 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed MeasuringInflation TheConsumerPriceIndex FIGURE20 6 TheCPIMarketBasket December2008 TheBureauofLaborStatisticssurveys30 000householdsontheirspendinghabits Theresultsareusedtoconstructamarketbasketofgoodsandservicespurchasedbythetypicalurbanfamilyoffour Thechartshowsthesegoodsandservices groupedintoeightbroadcategories Thepercentagesrepresenttheexpendituresharesofthecategorieswithinthemarketbasket Thecategoriesofhousing transportation andfoodmakeupaboutthree quartersofthemarketbasket 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed TheCPIMarketBasket Jan 2011 PRC MeasuringInflation TheConsumerPriceIndex CPI Don tLetThisHappentoYOU Don tMiscalculatetheInflationRate YOURTURN Testyourunderstandingbydoingrelatedproblem4 3attheendofthischapter 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed MeasuringInflation IstheCPIAccurate Substitutionbias Increaseinqualitybias Outletbias Newproductbias ItisimportantthattheCPIbeasaccurateaspossible buttherearefourbiasesthatcausechangesintheCPItooverstatethetrueinflationrate 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed MeasuringInflation TheProducerPriceIndex Producerpriceindex PPI Anaverageofthepricesreceivedbyproducersofgoodsandservicesatallstagesoftheproductionprocess PPIusuallyservesastheleadingindicatorofCPI 20 4LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Definepricelevelandinflationrateandunderstandhowtheyarecomputed Allpriceindexes GDPdeflator CPIandPPI areusedtocomputeinflationrate Owingtothevarieditemscontainedinvariedpriceindexes theresultinginflationrateshavedifferentmeaning InflationDeflationDisinflation UsingPriceIndexestoAdjustfortheEffectsofInflation 20 5LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Usepriceindexestoadjustfortheeffectsofinflation RealvariableandNominalvariable 20 5LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Usepriceindexestoadjustfortheeffectsofinflation UsingPriceIndexestoAdjustfortheEffectsofInflation Forsomepurposes weareinterestedintrackingchangesinaneconomicvariableovertimeratherthaninseeingwhatitsvaluewouldbeintoday sdollars Inthatcase tocorrectfortheeffectsofinflation wecandividethenominalvariablebyapriceindexandmultiplyby100toobtainarealvariable 20 5LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Usepriceindexestoadjustfortheeffectsofinflation Realvariable nominalvariable priceindex 100 CalculatingRealAverageHourlyEarnings YOURTURN Formorepractice dorelatedproblems5 3 5 4 5 5and5 6attheendofthischapter 20 5LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Usepriceindexestoadjustfortheeffectsofinflation RealversusNominalInterestRates NominalinterestrateThestatedinterestrateonaloan RealinterestrateThenominalinterestrateminustheinflationrate RealInterestRate NominalInterestRate InflationRate 20 6LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Distinguishbetweenthenominalinterestrateandtherealinterestrate RealversusNominalInterestRates FIGURE20 7 NominalandRealInterestRates 1970 2008 Therealinterestrateisequaltothenominalinterestrateminustheinflationrate Therealinterestrateprovidesabettermeasureofthetruecostofborrowingandthetruereturnonlendingthandoesthenominalinterestrate Thenominalinterestrateinthefigureistheinterestrateonthree monthU S Treasurybills TheinflationrateismeasuredbythepercentagechangeintheCPIfromthesamequarterduringthepreviousyear 20 6LEARNINGOBJECTIVE Distinguishbetweenthenominalinterestrateandtherealinterestrate DoesInflationImposeCostsontheEconomy InflationAffectstheDistributionofIncom