公司理财06投资决策的其他方法ppt课件.ppt

第6章投资决策的其他方法 6 1为什么要使用净现值6 2回收期法6 3折现回收期法6 4平均会计收益率法6 5内部收益率法6 6内部收益率的缺陷6 7盈利指数6 8资本预算实务6 9小结 6 1为什么要使用净现值WhyUseNetPresentValue 接受净现值为正的项目符合股东的利益AcceptingpositiveNPVprojectsbenefitsshareholders NPV的特点 NPV使用了现金流量NPVusescashflowsNPV包含了项目的全部现金流量NPVusesallthecashflowsoftheprojectNPV对现流量进行了合理的折现NPVdiscountsthecashflowsproperly NetPresentValue NPV TotalPVoffutureCF s InitialInvestmentEstimatingNPV 1 Estimatefuturecashflows howmuch andwhen 2 Estimatediscountrate3 EstimateinitialcostsMinimumAcceptanceCriteria AcceptifNPV 0RankingCriteria ChoosethehighestNPVReinvestmentassumption theNPVruleassumesthatallcashflowscanbereinvestedatthediscountrate 6 2回收期法ThePaybackPeriodRule Howlongdoesittaketheprojectto payback itsinitialinvestment PaybackPeriod numberofyearstorecoverinitialcostsMinimumAcceptanceCriteria setbymanagementRankingCriteria setbymanagement 例 50000 0 30000 20000 10000 投资回收期 2年 Disadvantages IgnoresthetimevalueofmoneyIgnorescashflowsafterthepaybackperiodBiased 偏向 againstlong termprojectsRequiresanarbitrary 武断的 acceptancecriteriaAprojectacceptedbasedonthepaybackcriteriamaynothaveapositiveNPVAdvantages EasytounderstandBiasedtowardliquidity 流动性偏好 6 3折现回收期法TheDiscountedPaybackPeriodRule 现金流量贴后的初始投资额回收的时间Howlongdoesittaketheprojectto payback itsinitialinvestmenttakingthetimevalueofmoneyintoaccount Bythetimeyouhavediscountedthecashflows youmightaswellcalculatetheNPV 例 假设贴现率为10 项目的现金流量为 100 50 50 20 回收期法 回收期为2年折现回期 先计算每期现金流的贴现值 100 50 1 1 50 1 12 20 1 13 100 45 45 41 32 15 03 回收期略小于3年 6 4平均会计收益率法TheAverageAccountingReturnRule Anotherattractivebutfatallyflawedapproach RankingCriteriaandMinimumAcceptanceCriteriasetbymanagement 例 某项目投资50万元 5年期 直线折旧 残值为0 该项目每年产生的税后利润分别为 10万元 15万元 5万元 0和 5万元 求平均会计收益率 解 平均净收益 平均投资额 平均会计收益率 Disadvantages IgnoresthetimevalueofmoneyUsesanarbitrarybenchmarkcutoffrateBasedonbookvalues 账面数据 notcashflowsandmarketvaluesAdvantages TheaccountinginformationisusuallyavailableEasytocalculate 6 5内部收益率法TheInternalRateofReturn IRR Rule IRR thediscountthatsetsNPVtozeroMinimumAcceptanceCriteria AcceptiftheIRRexceedstherequiredreturn RankingCriteria SelectalternativewiththehighestIRRReinvestmentassumption AllfuturecashflowsassumedreinvestedattheIRR Disadvantages 不能辨别是投资还是借款Doesnotdistinguishbetweeninvestingandborrowing IRR可能不存在或存在多个值IRRmaynotexistortheremaybemultipleIRR对互斥投资的决策存在缺陷ProblemswithmutuallyexclusiveinvestmentsAdvantages 容易理解和沟通Easytounderstandandcommunicate 例 Considerthefollowingproject Theinternalrateofreturnforthisprojectis19 44 IfwegraphNPVversusdiscountrate wecanseetheIRRasthex axisintercept 60 00 40 00 20 00 0 00 20 00 40 00 60 00 80 00 100 00 120 00 1 9 19 29 39 Discountrate NPV 6 6内部收益率的缺陷ProblemswiththeIRRApproach 借还是贷AreWeBorrowingorLending 多重收益率MultipleIRRs 规模问题TheScaleProblem 时间序列问题TheTimingProblem 互斥项目与独立项目MutuallyExclusivevs IndependentProject MutuallyExclusiveProjects onlyONEofseveralpotentialprojectscanbechosen e g acquiringanaccountingsystem RANKallalternativesandselectthebestone IndependentProjects acceptingorrejectingoneprojectdoesnotaffectthedecisionoftheotherprojects MustexceedaMINIMUMacceptancecriteria 投资还是融资 0 1 100 130 项目A 0 1 100 130 项目B A方案为投资型方案 B方案为融资型方案 IRRA 30 IRRB 30 对方案A而言 当IRR大于贴现率时 方案可行 对方案B而言 当IRR小于贴现率时 方案可行 例如 某公司急需100元 可以选择 1 执行项目B 2 向银行借款 多重收益率MultipleIRRs TherearetwoIRRsforthisproject 100 IRR2 0 IRR1 Whichoneshouldweuse 150 00 100 00 50 00 0 00 50 00 100 00 50 0 50 100 150 200 Discountrate NPV 规模问题TheScaleProblem Wouldyourathermake100 or50 onyourinvestments Whatifthe100 returnisona 1investmentwhilethe50 returnisona 1 000investment 时间问题TheTimingProblem 0123 10 000 1 000 1 000 10 000 ProjectA 0123 1 000 1 000 12 000 10 000 ProjectB Thepreferredprojectinthiscasedependsonthediscountrate nottheIRR 计算增量现金流量的内部收益率CalculatingtheCrossoverRate ComputetheIRRforeitherproject A B or B A B A第一期非零现金流量为负 6 7盈利指数TheProfitabilityIndex PI Rule MinimumAcceptanceCriteria AcceptifPI 1RankingCriteria SelectalternativewithhighestPI Disadvantages 对于互斥投资 根据PI决策可能会舍弃NPV大的方案ProblemswithmutuallyexclusiveinvestmentsAdvantages MaybeusefulwhenavailableinvestmentfundsarelimitedEasytounderstandandcommunicateCorrectdecisionwhenevaluatingindependentprojects 6 8资本预算实务ThePracticeofCapitalBudgeting Variesbyindustry Somefirmsusepayback othersuseaccountingrateofreturn ThemostfrequentlyusedtechniqueforlargecorporationsisIRRorNPV 例 ComputetheIRR NPV PI andpaybackperiodforthefollowingtwoprojects Assumetherequiredreturnis10 YearProjectAProjectB0 200 1501 200 502 800 1003 800 150 ProjectAProjectBCF0 200 00 150 00PV0ofCF1 3 241 92 240 80NPV 41 92 90 80IRR 0 100 36 19 PI 1 20961 6053 PaybackPeriod ProjectAProjectBTimeCFCum CFCFCum CF0 200 200 150 1501200050 100280080010003 8000150150PaybackperiodforprojectB 2years PaybackperiodforprojectA 1or3years NPV和IRR的关系RelationshipBetweenNPVandIRR DiscountrateNPVforANPVforB 10 87 52234 770 0 00150 0020 59 2647 9240 59 48 8 6060 42 19 43 0780 20 85 65 64100 0 00 81 25120 18 93 92 52 ProjectA ProjectB 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 15 0 15 30 45 70 100 130 160 190 Discountrates NPV IRR1 A IRR B NPV与贴现率图NPVProfiles