国贸经济管理类毕业论文-浅析网络外部性与中国移动的市场竞争_第1页
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?CR4WFJ0JA1 ?vkgaa&v5k/1 3G Wg*k$;O5ag*DKB%iwJ4&NJzck|9ac| , -*aBo4g*D|6YCB RBBog*Da|6kBon ,5g*DGJog-itDYCB| , /1 3G|6WkgB|kxEkg*a|6eoKKdBL B g 3F |?CR4WFJ0JA2AbstractAs the market share of China mobile decreases year by year in recent yearscan China Mobile still control the market as before in the coming of 3G times ?The significant characteristics of mobile communication industry lie in itsnetwork externality. Its existence has changed the eternally immutable economylaw on certain degree. Its effect originates from the homogeneous effect ofconsumers in the market. The effect will finally lead to the market pattern that“winners take all.”The article analyses the competition of China Mobile communicationindustry and its network externality, from which, the paper explores the marketcompetition of China mobile communication industry. The results show that withthe development of China mobile communication industry, the breaking down ofthe monopoly advantages of mobile industry and the influence of networkexternality, Chine Mobile will, with the coming of 3G severe competition age,will make good use of network externality effect, increase its customers so as tostand firm in the competition of mobile communication market.K Key wordL Network externality consumer lock Positive feedbackNetwork effect?CR4WFJ0JA3- 1 ,A .41.1 LN,*.D0,?y .41.2 -F,.D0)( .42 -0+FJ2j,1lp)(6 .52.1 -0+FJ|JF .52.2 -0+FJ|J1(&6 .72.3 -0+FJ2j%XF65 .92.4-0+FJL(Md,LN .93 55FGWF .103.1 55FGW,y .103.2 55FGW,x .124 55FGW;-0+,2j1)16 .134.1 55FGWx;101-0+FJ2j,1 .134.2 55FGWx;-0+FJ2j, 3G&7F9 .154.3 55FGWx;-0+FJ2j,F95 .184.4 -0+FJL(,1)1 .195 5A .2169)d .228* BX .23?CR4WFJ0JA4#u55FGW-0+,2j11 ,A1.1 LN,*.D0,?yGp.X6FJF0+FJJ-0+0-$10 Qf?, TACS -p-0+FJ2j6-6FJjE1jf,(j.d0+FJ2j,pMW*A8!, GSM 554EKE,16FJ4=7-9-0+C,v_-0+,2j-NXF;L 94-0+Xgj 156.87+Xg2j-N 100% 95j 362.972j-N 99.2% 96j 694.572j-N 98.7% 2000-0+Xg 665272j9) 78% 2006-0+2j9);L 65.6% 1 WTOA-o)0+FJ2j,1fnn-0+FJJXA 3GEF,E0;6J9$J0+FJ(|,n , -5FJ-JFJ-+e6_B2j,%XF65-0+)FA,2j-N=ECG?0+FJJn:,(_55FGW55FGW,X00;:i=,4#Ix$2j#Ci65,C|J,1fF$nF:F.D0)0+FJJ,9j,7,?y60+FJJn1f,?WAjKO-;FJ|Jn1f_Cv_n-1,_9j9,)0,-1j)0,-1j)*1,)zaJd1*601yJMLN9j,)?y)B5,.D00+FJJ,8fWAj-0+FJ2j=7-u61(&_*MhWMh)ELuxFBM0?Q_,_,%D-(WMh7I-+eJj61f2j,o10 j#Ci65,C|JF -9A4:U0+FJ=J,9TF:Uv-0+-6FJ-0+FJL(;10 -0+ ”)_i-+efiM,G5 200082(|0, 1987-0+6:Uj-+e!?00+eBJ-0+X- 30Z-1j2A9Ct(Ct9-0+O$_L9L(B()-0+O$_9L(|665X- 30Z-12jA0Ct(XO$_44:2-0+, GSM54X 63Z-,116Z0+FJ50FJ-Lu%$hJZ8# 2006 128+XgF 30+FJ=|JXA-A4#9)(4o,QG?jA011)9x1lpoLv5N303+GM)0 1fo11-6FJL(;10 -6FJ ”)9?WF!jA-0+FJ=|J1WF:Uv(_-6FJ00-$XCtCio1fL0L$,8+aF9M9F:Uvp9,8ks2j9) 1999, 12%Q 2006,?CR4WFJ0JA634.4%+L-A-0+FJ=|J,2jlp_d-0+-6FJm1F0lp,&L$E.v1F$%&FL-p-0+Xg,E)KKTF:Uv,2j+Xgwx:w1vTF:Uv, ARPUl!8!gwBCiG-x)*;L,CF0+FJ=|J,Y0L$*)5Y?F)B WTOFv,F6,8$Fj1$,&F4D1656M)H7W#$,pM_rM2-;0+FJ_,82x)+OOF$5Y.,C5,?0+FJ_,MO, Q+eBEA, GSM55+eB0+FJ!4 QFJ?Ej10+FJ?L-p-0+ GPRS_-6FJ CDMA_,v+X0+FJ?!X! 3G_&Z0+FJ?6Aj0+ev*.p, 3G_EF 3G5,(&_NBaY+X)Q3+5GW=7-O%CZ0+(5J,M0r9x_1 IPM)0 J,F7-9x0+JQFOKN)Ct$3WP,.-. 3G_,.D0vJF_Z0+FJF:Uv2j91H,K0+FJ=JZ1G?M_1 Q TACS _X 80-+Xg,AL,100+FJ_ GSM 55-2j0+FJ_Fw4,KLf!-0+-6FJ6*, 2.5G, GPRSFJ_ 2G, CDMAFJ_! 20012002 M!?v+Xn+aMO,NCt,fx90,lH6LWa)?CR4WFJ0JA7-6FJMO,2jG9NOB$,.=7-E?(2)-0+G,_%D Q?_ :GSM55 GPRS3+5 3G_,ED4_,6,|jj12.2 -0+FJ|J1(&61_2j4#,*(&1)H7,Ct$HF)=7-0+FJ=|JE1jfa_j.dHF-9Ct$,H+WG5QCt$,+Xx)#L,X6|J,15+|J9Y#,04%?CR4WFJ0JA8i-LEF+eGF0!j+eJ2j1*6?,FJ.XCtCio1,fMk?7Wljk7,WljE-0+FJF:Uv 2002 :z,CtCio1N-CtCio1j-AJG?=F5Ci-AJG.l93$-1(pF+epqA1J#q 20%FJBCiJGvLu:1J#%$hCiJGvLu:1J#80CiJG4?-0+FJ=2j+eBCtCi,!QLE0;-;*Fl4;LF 10=2000-2004 -0+-6FJNN0.dCtCi/jF|lH, :(1)E-0+-6FJ,k?JG-_ GSM0+eB=JA_XFJ=JDLt=,F_:UK0!,G+Xl1+,F+X1yMw9j,-(lW_-6FJ-9M)0 o11,HXCtCi,fl,F9M90,8+a0L$wFJEL!F/0,0,:UK0E2j,-,|Q1+Xg,2jFJEN,B)6N+X#Ci,j5Z*,0+FJJ+r,Y#K&(3)2j:#Ci65,#Ci|j(&0+FJF:Uv,1?CR4WFJ0JA9+F9-#Ci65F90+FJF:Uv,k?63-6FJ55,#Ci65#Ci,F$XF90+FJF:Uv&$*6WFFJBCXGJW2&#Ci65F9F:Uvk?63|jid*6AXM8;+0?A)L6Z55F,lp6F0!nF!-,W+eF:Uvw-6FJT0+FJF:UvvL-pEf4AAn3P,9xN)Ct$,Lf-,0+FJ2j=7-KOXslpa-,2jlp6FCtF-0+FJ=2j2j11JsF Q?_fC 12.4-0+FJL(Md,LNL-p- WTOo)+eJ1f,=n-0+FJJEFO-0+,2j-NFA?#X6, 3G&W2j-N#Ci65F9,7NA-O.D08D,)10+FJJ_0/,55J6,55FGW+a55FGW)1J,4:Uo1fo1,fs8#Z4#,F|G-JFP$!k,!.D055FGW)-0+FJL(,11+691 LxM 2005-0+FJ1H+.D0G+e0L1 3O?CR4WFJ0JA10X191H63 55FGWF 3.1 55FGW,y3.1.1 !,55FGW|j!FGW!O_5Vf,FGWA7-O5Vf,0 j!FGW,9NFf,W,(&)F/,+X7-O+O=7-G9,f,8$!FGW,fFP65=7-G9f,Jk?_;G3P,8$NFf,0_#Ci,M1W9XF|#Ci&0Z),6=,8$B,+O:w_6+O#Ci,M)0 W,:w+J8#=7-_,C=fW904+O*PFB=f-()+OB$Mh?!0ZB,#Ci65G-7-jB565,1)Fa0+a+O659,f,9,a_F-(xM#y-+O4,/=!aB$FZLNFTZ3P50&W#CiZQf,=+a90G6!FGW,XQ/nJf,_X=LFGWfFP65x+Xd,|jCO,FGW_XKFP8!f,|j59M :0_7F/CC8f&06|j+O1J)CSsY3+9.6|jFX-91JjF+a-91Jp965|j?CR4WFJ0JA119_7+aCkL$,=)0 ECC,vJ!jPv4:UE0;,w!QuR-$*B;YF=N6|jG-_Y!Ij-,8?=8?,=F|j1JFG|jX0)#-,_1J=F|j1J44,?X9+OFGW,LkyM,uC*6+aFG|jTj)F1J,FB7|j-+#Ci65,|j6|j,)0M+ON,FGW=n,6W+a#Ci|j,6WZ#Ci)+O1+O,=CF6Fa_?)pBC?|j,|3.1.3 0Z1,FGW QCX:FGWa_4#k,/Y#k,6|+XB0EpBCFGxa_4#k,/Y-,8G5,|j6 : 3.1.3FG, i k7=/j j,/Y- (i=1, 2,.n, m)_7 i,1 iN4#k /j k,1 mN4#kF0-Z4#k J ,/YL8!pf,4#k,F/j k )4#k i +OFG!x90 jFG4#09,FGW1y : ? I/j k )4#k i +OFGCOx0 FG=4#F#9,FGW:F 6F-;FGW,#y93$_Mh#,=54# ,54/M4#X)4#FGW_0Z*)EvCCG?,%)?93$+XG-CC$!,.D0v)B%#,+|X-pAJ/=F 1D65,-;#_FGW_4#,0Z908W,%#AJ0ND5J/#)?-LB$40/,0 :FGW*6A,*6A3+ ;6B-(,#Ci65G,6*.p ( in stalled base) CW , %X,FJB)BaCJ , B55)+Xg,laCQF/#Ci65|jL$,-(a!,#CiFGW3.2.2 (55,l1y558&,FB$55+OV,x,6L-p55+Xg,6EL$_:,W ,?CR4WFJ0JA13F/W,8$M0r:,-(CW4 55FGW;-0+,2j1)164.1 55FGWx;101-0+FJ2j,1-0+FJJ_0Z9,55FGWx,2jX101 (1G/2G)0+FJ&O-0+L-+eDj 1G 2j,04:U65-0+B2j 1994-ojXBN.dE1jf6|55*A1)*55FGWx;,x,(MA66F0&O,J5(+a0+FJJ,55FGW(!Z0+FJ+Xg,x+X5TG60G6_)0,l (autarky value),B#Ci65=+XgFJB&p9,lA+X+/jF|Ah#BYDN1yp9,l (2G 2j+aPEFOG,Lf , FG6l?0G6_55x (network value) ,l , %X,gFJB,lA+X Ane/jFG6l , $GB2j,55FGWj ( network strength ),D$ (0, 1) , ne _#Ci65)2j?Q,NO , F/NOCW , B55,#Ci65,x+XaCQFg0+FJ2j,W#Ci65x+Xj U = H + Ane,% n = neFgX552j8A)NO,M0r4j.,4?CR4WFJ0JA14. 4-1 X55FGW, 2G/1G 2jM0r4+a. 4-1?552j,lM0riWMhWl,+;L6,8$2jM0r-N,UPXF02j-0+jX1J55,*A+Xg,G-6FJ!T65XF0&OF|,_D_l (Stachelberg) 1FGA+X$-0+ ,B-6FJ+a-0+-+e*B!-0+,-6FJ CA Ox-6FJ,-7-_ :MaxPB/nB= Max (p - cB ) nB 5PB/5nB=0, 6FJ,2j-j :RB(nA)=1-cB2/(1- A) -nA/2!Q-0+,-7-j :MaxPA/nA= 1- (1- A) R B (nA ) + nA -cA nA6FJ,-0+,w+XgGj : nA =1+ cB- 2cA/2 (1- A) ,j2j,F656FJ,2j-Nj nB =1+ 2cA - 3cB/4(1- A) ,2j,k+XgGj nA +nB =3- 2cA - cB4 (1- A),T652j-N,Nj nA -nB=1+ 5cB - 6cA/4 (1- A) 0?-0+FJJ,55FGWj$CWIBJ,+XgGCJ6FJ,2j-NL$,2JCWXF0&O-6FJ-0+0KE,1vA-;6FJxY=CX0+,14F-L65,+Xg-N9 22% ,0+78% ,-N-(+JF-,0+FJJ9NO,d1?CR4WFJ0JA15,2j5f4k,lp;n/jF/2jG,)3+7= 4-1 19952000u6xd*=1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20006d362.9 685.3 1323 2356 3803 6652d2.8 9.2 42.6 142 521 1874Ct$-5AH 15A : X-0+FJJ,MO , j0+FJ2j,F65 ,6FJ=7*5Ct$,H , DP54#,k,65F-L651Q?6X,17-u2j,G-0+-(6FJL6/l,L-p0+FJJ, , 21 F4M,-0+FJ2jMd-p,1) , )XOxB2j4EJ,)6 ,4KOX 2000,+XgG40.d 8000 7!QL-p-+eJiM,$!-0+-+e6*6*.p (installed base) ,5569$W,55x+X! 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