科技论文(二十国集团和世界经济)the G20

The G20 and the world economy Some recent statistics it is true offer glimmers of hope The latest manufacturing figures particularly in Asia hint at an end to the implosion of global industrial production In America consumer spending is no longer in free fall and the housing market where the trouble first broke out shows some signs of stabilising In Britain mortgage lending may have hit the bottom consumers are a little less gloomy and manufacturing looks a little less terrible These slivers of good news have helped stockmarkets recover from their recent nadirs But they should not be exaggerated Plainly the risks lie on the downside as rising unemployment leads to a new round of spending weakness and corporate defaults create new problems in the credit markets Worse the recovery when it comes will be feeble as the overindebted rebuild their balance sheets and export dependent countries reorient their economies towards domestic spending The OECD expects growth to stay well below its trend rate in 2010 widening the rich world s output gap the distance between the economy s actual and potential performance to an extraordinary 8 5 of GDP That would push jobless rates into double digits in much of the rich world and leave many countries perilously close to deflation Faced with this cataclysm policymakers have been fighting back with the biggest and most synchronised macroeconomic stimulus since the second world war Virtually every rich country and many emerging ones have put together fiscal stimulus packages Add in the automatic impact of lower tax revenues and higher jobless payments and the rich world budget deficits will jump by about six percentage points of GDP The firepower of international financial institutions especially the IMF is being boosted to help those emerging economies with no room to help themselves Governments have vowed to resist a descent into protectionism Threr has been some backsliding but no sign of a repeat of the beggar thy neighbour lunacy of the 1930s Two questions spring to the fore Are these responses however extraordinary adequate And if in doubt should prudent policy makers errtowards doing too much or too little At a global level the answer is surely that boldness beats timidity Of course there are risks in soaring government debt and swelling central bank balance sheets But scaling back monetary and fiscal stimulus will be easier than digging the world economy out of a deflationary hole which if the OECD s forecast is right remains an uncomfortably large risk The lesson of every big banking crisis in recent history is that rapid and decisive government action to clean up balance sheets results in a quicker recovery and smaller long term damage to the public purse That is all the more pertinent this time because the usual route out of big banking busts recovery on the back of strong global growth seems closed For individual countries however the calculus is often different particularly on fiscal policy From widening spreads on many countries sovereign bonds to Britain s failure to sell all the gilts it wanted to at a recent auction there are signs that stimulus has its limits for some Gordon Brown has run out of room Ireland is having to tighten fiscal policy For all the efforts to bolster the IMF some emerging market borrowers look even worse off Today s situation is grim but currency crisessand sovereign defaults would only make the mess worse What is needed therefore is a calibrated boldness America s stimulus package is appropriate to its fiscal position and economic outlook Countries with scope for more stimulus especially Germany should use it Laggards in other areas must step up as well America s plan to clean up its banks for instance is still inadequate It is important too that governments do not just spend today but have credible explicit plans for scaling back tomorrow Perhaps most important calibrated boldness implies not that one solution fits all but that different countries should do different things for the common good as well as their own It is a state of mind one that the G20 leaders must maintain long after this week s meeting 二十国集团和世界经济二十国集团和世界经济 最近的数据让人们看到隐约的希望 最新制造业数据 尤其是亚洲地区的 数据 显示全球工业生产内缩已经结束 在美国 消费者消费迅速下滑的趋势 已经得到遏制 引爆金融危机的房地产市场也出现稳定的迹象 在英国 抵押 贷款市场也许已经见底 消费者信心有所恢复 制造业景气有所回升 在这些 利好的刺激下 最近股市开始触底反弹 利好虽有 但也不能夸大它们的功效 毋庸置疑 失业率的上升导致新一轮的消费疲软 企业拖欠贷款引发信贷市场 上新的问题 这些都使得风险仍在蔓延 更糟的是 即便经济复苏真的到来 这种复苏也是虚弱的 因为过度借贷 者要重建他们的资产负债表 出口倚赖型国家要调整经济方向 扩大国内消费 世界经合组织预计 20 1 0 年经济增长将大大慢于当前的经济增长速度 由此拉 大发达国家的产出差距 实际经济指标与潜在经济指标之间的差距 占 GDP8 5 大大超乎寻常 这个比例会将发达国家的失业率推向两位数 并令多 国经济滑向危险的通货紧缩的边缘 面对这次金融灾难 各国的决策者们几乎同时出台了自二战以来最庞大的 宏观经济刺激方案 几乎所有富裕国家和众多新兴国家合作出台财政刺激一揽 子计划 由于税收减少和失业补偿金增加 富裕国家的财政赤字将攀升至大约 GDP 的 6 个百分点 国际金融机构 特别是国际货币基金 正在充实弹药以帮 助那些新兴经济体渡过难关 各国政府都承诺抵制贸易保护主义 经济是倒退 了 但不会再出现 20 世纪 30 年代 吃光邻居 的那样极端现象 眼前有两个问题有待回答 各国应对经济危机的反应虽然超出平常 但是 否足以解决问题 如果不能确定 那么谨慎的决策者们是否会因做得太少或做 得太多而犯错 从全球角度来说 答案肯定是宁可大胆犯错也不能胆小无为 诚然 政府 债台高筑 央行资产负债严重是有风险的 但是 缩减金融财政刺激力度容易 把世界经济从通缩的深坑里拽出来可就不容易了 如果世界经合组织预测准确 的话 通缩的危险仍然很大 近代历史上每一次大的金融危机都给我们留下了 这样的教训 只要政府行动迅速 果断 经济复苏就会更快 对公民财产的长 期损害就会更小 此次金融危机更加体现了这一点 因为拯救大银行企业破产 的常规路子 借助全球经济的有力增长来提振金融 似乎走不通了 但是对于单个的国家来说 微积分的作用经常是不同的 这在财政政策上 尤为明显 许多国家的主权基金发行越来越多 英国在最近一次拍卖会未能如 愿将所有债券销售出去 这些都表明经济刺激并非是万灵药 戈登 布朗已经 无牌可打 爱尔兰不得不紧缩财政 虽然货币基金组织得到注资 一些得到贷 款的新兴国家