中国近代土地利用变化对区域气候影响的数值模拟

第 64 卷 第 3 期目次论 文中国近代土地利用变化对区域气候影响的数值模拟 李巧萍 丁一汇 董文杰 (257)大气红外探测器(AIRS)温、湿度反演产品的有效性检验及在数值模式中的应用研究高文华 赵凤生 盖长松 (271) 区域化学输送模式中 NOx 和 O3 源示踪法的引入 江文华 马建中 (281) 雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时预报影响的数值对比试验盛春岩 薛德强 雷 霆 等 (293) 水汽空间分布对大气船舶重力波影响的数值试验 李子良(308)在动力相似预报中引入多个参考态的更新任宏利 丑纪范 (315)不同下垫面空气动力学参数的研究茅宇豪 刘树华 李 婧(325)南海西南季风爆发前后海-气通量交换系数研究闫俊岳 唐志毅 姚华栋 等(335) 西北太平洋夏季风的变化对台风生成的影响王慧 丁一汇 何金海(345)热带气旋强度资料的差异性分析余 晖 胡春梅 蒋乐贻 (357) TRMM 卫星对一次冰雹降水过程的观测分析研究何文英 陈洪滨(364)观测仪器和百叶箱的变化对地面气温观测值的影响熊安元 朱燕君 任芝花 等(377)短论华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆 梁平德 段丽瑶 周鸣盛 等(385)高原低涡移出高原的观测事实分析郁淑华 高文良 (392) 学术论坛地-气耦合动力系统的研究 莫嘉琪 王辉 林万涛(400) ARTICLESA numerical simulation on impact of historical land-use changes on regional climate inChina since 1700Li Qiaoping Ding Yihui Dong Wenjie （257）Validation of AIRS retrieval temperature and moisture products and their application in numericalmodelsGao Wenhua Zhao Fengsheng Gai Changsong(271)Implementation of NOx and O3 key source tracing method in a regional chemical transportmodelJiang Wenhua Ma Jianzhong（281）Comparative experiments between effects of Doppler radar data assimilation and increasinghorizontal resolution on short range prediction Sheng Chunyan Xue Deqiang Lei Ting et al（293）Effects of moisture on atmospheric ship waves Li Ziliang（308）Introducing the updating of multi reference states into dynamical analogue predictionRen Hongli Chou Jifan（315）Study of aerodynamic parameters for different underling surfaces Mao Yuhao Liu Shuhua Li Jing （325）A study on the air-sea fluxes exchange coefficients over the South China Sea (SCS) during the onset of southwest monsoonYan Junyue Tang Zhiyi Yao Huadong et al（335）Influence of western North Pacific summer monsoon changes on typhoon genesisWang HuiDing Yihui He Jinhai（345）Comparison of three tropical cyclone strength datasetsYu Hui Hu Chunmei Jiang Leyi（357）Analyses of evolutional characteristics of a hailstorm precipitation from TRMM observations He Wenying Chen Hongbin（364）Analysis of the differences and its causes between temperature observations recorded bydifferent sensors and different shelterXiong Anyuan Zhu Yanjun Ren Zhihua et al （377）SHORT CONTRIBUTIONSCirculation patterns for midsummer drought/flood in North China and their earlysummer precursersLiang Pingde Duan Liyao Zhou Mingshen et al（385）Observational analysis on the movement of vortices before/after moving out the Tibetan Plateau Yu Shuhau Gao Wenliang（392）DISCUSSIONSStudy for earth-atmosphere coupled dynamical systemMo Jiaqi Wang Hui Lin Wantao（400）中国近代土地利用变化对区域气候影响的数值模拟李巧萍 1，2 丁一汇 2 董文杰 21 中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京，1000292 国家气候中心，北京，100081摘要利用国家气候中心改进的高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM-NCC）模拟研究了中国近代历史时期土地利用/覆盖变化对中国区域气候的影响，模拟结果显示，1700年以来，以森林砍伐、草地退化及相应耕地面积扩大为主的土地利用变化可能对中国区域降水、温度产生了显著影响。17001900年期间，由于土地利用的变化使华北、西南等地区降水呈减少趋势，其他区域变化不明显，但近50年来却使长江中下游地区、西北、东北部分地区降水有所增加。17001800年间的土地利用变化使得除东北及长江流域地区外的大部分地区温度呈下降趋势，1900年以后有所升高，特别是近50年来中国大部分区域平均气温升高，与这一时期由于大气中温室气体排放浓度增加造成的温度升高相一致。另外，土地利用变化不仅使大气温度、湿度发生变化，还可引起基本流场的变化，使东亚冬、夏季风气流有所增强，这主要是由于植被变化改变了地面温度，使海、陆温差进一步增大的结果。因此，土地利用变化对区域尺 度气候变化的影响是不容忽视的。关键词：近代土地利用变化，区域气候，数值模拟。初稿时间：2005年9月11日；修改稿时间：2005年11月22日。资助课题：国家重点发展基础研究项目(2006CB400503)和国家自然科学基金资助项目(40231004)。作者简介：李巧萍，女，1970年生，博士，主要从事气候变化及数值模拟研究。A NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON IMPACT OF HISTORICAL LANDUSECHANGES ON REGIONAL CLIMATE IN CHINA SINCE 1700Li Qiaoping1,2Ding Yihui2 Dong Wenjie 21 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081AbstractBy using the improved regional climate model of National Climate Center (NCC_Reg CM), a series of modeling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impacts of historical landuse changes (LUCs) on the regional climate in China. Simulat i ons are conducted for 2 years using estimated landuse for 1700, 1800, 1900, 1950 and 1990. The conversion of land cover from forests to either grass or crops, or from grasslands to crops in these periods was extensive over China. Simulatio n results show that since 1700, historical LUCs, such as deforestation, degradat ion of grasslands, expansion of cultivated land etc, have significant impacted on regional climate change, with rainfall increasing in the lowmid Yangtze River basin, Northwest China and part of Northeast China, but decreasing to different extent in other regions. The simulated temperatures show that significant warming occurred over most areas in China in the recent hu ndred years, especially from 1950 to 1990, which is consistent with the warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases. On the other hand, historical LUCs have o bviously affected the mean circulation, with the East Asian winter and summer mo nsoon becoming more intensive, which mainly results from the amplified temperatu re difference between ocean and land due to the vegetation change over lands. Key words: Historical land-use change, Regional climate, Numerical simulation.大气红外探测器(AIRS)温、湿度反演产品的有效性检验及在数值模式中的应用研究高文华 1,2 赵凤生 2 盖长松 31 山西省运城市气象局，运城，0440002 国家卫星气象中心，北京，1000813 重庆市气象局，重庆，401147摘要利用中国540个地面气象观测站点资料，对1和7月大气红外探测器(AIRS)的反演中国区域地面气温精 度做了详细评估，分析了产生误差的原因。同时把AIRS的反演温、湿度廓线产品与T213数值预报产品进行比较，分析了它们之间的差异。为进一步考察AIRS温、湿度产品的有效性，我们把经过订正的AIRS地面气温以及温、湿度廓线产品分析同化到中尺度模式MM5中，用于华北降雪天气过程的对比模拟试验，分析AIRS反演产品对降雪量、水汽场、垂直速度场、散度场以及云物理过程等的影响。关键词： AIRS，卫星资料，数值模拟，降雪。初稿时间：2005年6月13日；修改稿时间：2006年2月9日。资助课题：国家自然科学基金项目（40271079）。作者简介：高文华，男，1971年生，中国科学院安徽光学精密机械研究所在读博士，主要从事卫星遥感和数值模拟方面的研究。Email:VALIDATION OF AIRS RETRIEVAL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PRODUCTSAND THEIR APPLICATION IN NUMERICAL MODELSGao Wenhua1,2Zhao Fengsheng2 Gai Changsong31 Yuncheng Meteorological Office of Shanxi Province， Yuncheng 0440002 National Satellite Meteorological Center， Beijing 1000813 Chongqing Meteorological Bureau， Chongqing 401147AbstractTo estimate the accuracy of AIRS retrieval products in the region of China, the surface air temperature derived from AIRS are compared with those obtained from 540 meteorological stations in the period of July 2004 and January 2005. The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles derived from AIRS are also compared with T213 numerical forecasting products. Then the errors in AIRS atmospheric pro ducts are analyzed. Furthermore, the surface air temperature and atmospheric tem perature and humidity profiles derived from AIRS are assimilated into the MM5 nu merical model by analysis nudging, to investigate their effects on snowfall, and water vapor, vertical velocity and divergence fields as well as microphysical processes. The preliminary results are as following: (1) The errors in the surface air temperature retrieved from AIRS are systematic errors. The influence of terrain altitude can cause a negative deviation of 10 K. Also, the effects of land surface are significant, for the snow cover in winter can bring about a positive deviation of 5 K. (2) By comparing the atmospheric profiles derived from AIRS with those from T213 numerical products, it is found that the difference in temperature can reach 2 K, and the difference in relative humidity can reach 25%. (3) The numerical experiment results show that the use of AIRS atmospheric produ cts in the initial assimilation is able to improve the initial moisture field an d thus the snowfall prediction to some extent.Key words: AIRS, Satellite data, Numerical simulation, Snowfall.区域化学输送模式中NO x和O 3源示踪法的引入江文华 ， 马建中 中国气象科学研究院，北京，100081重庆市气象台，重庆，401147摘要发展了化学输送模式中氮氧化合物（NOx）和臭氧（O 3）的一种源示踪方法，对这种示踪法及其应用模式作了详细介绍，并结合臭氧光化学反应机理的分析描述了NOx和O 3示踪物浓度方程的推导过程。将这种示踪法引用到区域化学输送模式中，并以太原和石家庄地表NOx人为排放产生的活性氮化物和臭氧为例，演示了污染物向北京的输送过程，模拟的O 3，NO x和NOz示踪物浓度时空分布与O 3，NO x和NOz在大气中的衰减尺度分析一致，表明该示踪法是一种有效的研究区域氮氧化物以及臭氧来源和输送转化过程的方法。个例模拟分析结果显示：太原和石家庄的地表人为排放产生的NOx本身并不能输送到北京，但通过它们产生的O 3和HNO 3可以输送到北京，对北京地表附近大气污染造成影响。关键词：臭氧，氮氧化物，示踪法，化学输送模式，光化学污染。初稿时间：2005年6月15日;修改稿时间:2005年9月27日。资助课题：科技部国家重大基础研究规划项目(973)(G1999045700）和国家自然科学基金项目(40375040)。通讯作者：马建中，E_mail：IMPLEMENTATION OF NOx AND O3 KEY SOURCE TRACING METHOD IN A REGIONAL CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELJiang Wenhua， Ma Jianzhong Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147Abstract NOx and O3 key source tracing method was implemented in a regional chemical transport model with meteorological fields provided by the mesoscale model MM5. In t his paper we introduce this tracing method as well as the model to which it is a pplied in detail. The concentration equations for the traced species are describ ed in combination with an analysis of the ozone photochemical mechanism. This source tracing method was applied to a chemical transport model to investigate th e impacts of near by key pollution sources on the photochemical pollution in Be i jing. As a case study, the temporal and spatial distributions and variations of NOx and O3 due to the surface emission from Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang were si mula ted for a summertime period. It turns out that the distribution patterns of traced NOx, NOz and O3 are in agreement with the analyses of their atmospheric lifetime scales, indicating that this tracing method is a powerful method for studyin g the source and transform of nitrogen oxides and ozone on the regional scale. It is found from the case study that NOx originated from Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang itself cannot be transported into Beijing, however, its derivatives ozone and HNO3 can be transported into Beijing, polluting the urban atmosphere of the city.Key words: Ozone，Nitrogen oxides，Tracing method，Chemical transport model，Photochemical pollution.雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时预报影响的数值对比试验盛春岩 ， 薛德强 雷 霆 1 高守亭 1中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室，北京,100029 山东省气象台，济南， 250031 中国科学院研究生院，北京， 100049摘 要为对比雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时数值预报的影响，利用美国Oklahoma 大学风暴分析和预测中心开发的ARPS（The Advanced Regional Prediction System）模式 及其资料分析系统ADAS（ARPS Data Analysis System），对一次华北暴雨过程进行了18,15 ,9,6,3 km 5种不同水平分辨率的数值对比试验，并对比了使用雷达资料进行云分析时5种 分辨率的模拟结果，结果表明，仅使用常规观测资料的情况下，通过提高模式水平分辨率， 可以改进6 h内的短时预报，模拟的锋面结构更为细致，降水尤其是强降水预报评分提高了 。而使用雷达资料改进模式初始场后，能明显改进模式6 h内的预报尤其是降水强度和落区 预报，使得18 km上使用雷达资料同化的预报结果好于3 km不使用雷达资料同化的结果，表 明雷达资料同化比单纯提高模式水平分辨率更为有效。不同分辨率上使用雷达资料同化的对 比发现，对于40 mm以下的一般性降水，从183 km的模拟结果差别不大，而对于强降水，仍然需要提高模式的水平分辨率。但无论初始场是否使用雷达资料同化，但当分辨率由6 km 提高到3 km时，模拟结果无明显改进，因此，提高模式分辨率有一定的限度，而在适当提高 模式分辨率的同时使用雷达资料同化改进模式初始场，则是提高模式短时预报的一个非常有 效的途径。关键词： 雷达资料同化，提高模式分辨率，对比试验，短时预报。 初稿时间：2005年8月2日；修改稿时间：2005年9月9日。资助课题： 国家自然科学基金重点项目(40433007)，山东省气象局2005年一期重点 项目(2005sdqxzl9)，中国科学院海外杰出学者基金(2004-2-7)。 作者简介：盛春岩，女，博士生，研究方向为中小尺度动力及数值模拟。Email:scy9186 COMPARATIVE EXPERIMENTS BETWEEN EFFECTS OF DOPPLER RADARDATA ASSIMILATION AND INCEASING HORIZONTAL RESOLUTIONON SHORTRANGE PREDICTIONSheng Chunyan1,2,3 Xue Deqiang2 Lei Ting1 Gao Shouting11 Laboratory of Cloudprecipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292 Meteorological Center of Shandong Province, Jinan 2500313 Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049AbstractTo examine effects of radar data assimilation and increasing horizontal re solution on the shortrange numerical weather prediction of precipitation, comp a rative numerical experiments are conducted for a Huabei torrential rainfall even t using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and its Data Analysis Sys tem (ADAS). The experiments differ in five different horizontal gridspacings o f 18, 15, 9, 6 and 3 km and two initial fields with/without initial radar data as similation. Results show that, when the radar data are not used in the initial f ields (i.e., using the conventional observation data only), increasing horizonta l resolution can improve the shortrange prediction within six hours with bette r representation of the frontal structure and higher scores of rainfall predictio n, especially heavy rain prediction. The initial radar data assimilation is abl e to significantly improve the precipitation location and intensity prediction w ithin the first six hours such that the 6 h precipitation prediction of the ARPS at 18 km resolution with initial radar data assimilation is better than that of the APRS at 3 km resolution without initial radar data assimilation. This sugge sts that the radar data assimilation is more effective in improving the shortrange precipitation prediction than increasing the horizontal resolution al one. Un der the condition of initial radar data assimilation, experimental results of di fferent resolutions show that differences of prediction results among among diff erent resolution schemes are not evident for ordinary precipitation (40 mm/( 6 h) ,but prediction of higher resolution experiment scheme for extraordinary precip itation (40 mm/(6 h)is better than other schemes. However, when the resolution increases from 6 km to 3 km, there is no evident improvement in precipita tion pr ediction whether the initial radar data assimilation is performed or not. Therefore, the effect of increasing resolution is limited, and combining an adequate h igher resolution with the initial radar data assimilation might be an eff ective way to improve the shortrange prediction of precipitation.Key words:Radar data assimilation, Increasing horizontal resolution, Comparativ e experiments, Shortrange prediction.水汽空间分布对大气船舶重力波影响的数值试验李子良 1，21 北京大学物理学院大气科学系，北京，1008712 中国海洋大学海洋环境学院物理海洋试验室，海洋气象系，青岛，266003摘 要利用中尺度数值模式ARPS模拟研究了水汽在山脉重力波和大气船波的产生和演变中的作用。研究发现水汽和非绝热效应对大气船波的影响与水汽的空间分布有关，大气船波的产生和演 变对水汽的空间分布具有极端的敏感性，在一定条件下水汽的引入有可能减少大气船波的活动。对于3层模式结构的气流过山而言，如果初始的水汽分布在中层大气，则水汽和非绝热效应对大气船波的影响较小，而如果初始的水汽分布在中下层大气，则引入水汽后减少了大气船波的强度，但是如果初始的水汽分布在整个模式大气层，则水汽的引入减少了大气船波的活动。关键词：大气船波，多层模式，水汽分布，横波模态，发散波模态。初稿时间：2005年8月23日；修改稿时间：2006年1月11日。EFFECTS OF MOISTURE ON ATMOSPHERIC SHIP WAVESLi Ziliang 1, 21 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Bei jing 1008712 Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Department of Marine Meteorology,Ocean Uni versity ofChina, Qingdao 266003AbstractEffects of moisture on the genesis and evolution of mountain gravity waves and a tmospheric ship waves in the threedimensional multilayer moisture flow over to pography are numerically investigated using the Advanced Regional Prediction Sys tem (ARPSIHOP5). The results show that the moisttrapped lee wave (the second diverging wave mode) in three dimensional three layer moisture flow over mo untain is apparent in the downstream of the mountain lee side, and it consists o f two diverging wave modes and a transverse wave mode. The genesis and evolution of atmospheric ship waves are extremely sensitive to the initial spatial distri bution of moisture in the atmosphere, and under certain condition, the introduct ion of moisture might reduce the activities of ship waves in the atmosphere.For the three-dimensional threelayer flow over a isolated mountain, if the initial moisture is distributed on the middle layer, the impact of moisture and diab atic heating on atmospheric ship waves is minor; if the initial moisture is dist ributed on the middle and lower layers, then effects of moisture and diabatic he ating reduce the intensity of atmospheric ship waves; and if the initial moistur e is distributed on the all layers of the model, then the introduction of moistu re into the model atmosphere will reduce the activities of atmospheric ship wave s in the whole atmosphere.Key words: Spatial distribution of moisture，Atmospheric ship wave activity, Multi layer flow, Isolatedmountain.在动力相似预报中引入多个参考态的更新任宏利 1,2 丑纪范 21 中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室， 北京，1000812 兰州大学大气科学学院， 兰州， 730000摘要针对如何更有效地利用历史资料中的相似信息提高预报水平的问题，在已有相似动力模式研究基础上，进一步探讨了相似误差订正方法(ACE)的若干理论和技术问题，分析表明，ACE是对以相似离差方程和相似误差订正方程为理论依据的方法的再发展。在此基础上，提出了相似的更新问题和多个参考态的引入，并进而发展出一种考虑多参考态更新的动力相似预报新方法(MRSU)。这一方法通过引入相似更新周期的新概念，在预报进行到相似更新周期时重新选取多个参考态，并采用超平面近似法将相似 动力模式产生的多个预报估计成最佳预报向量，这样的“选取-估计”过程循环往复，从而完成整个时段的预报。Lorenz模式试验显示，相比于以往的相似 动力模式预报，MRSU能更有效减小预报误差，提高预报技巧，并且，ACE的理 论 优势应用前景也被初步证实。综合诸多研究结果，给出了MRSU的概念流程，这里针对复杂数值模式采用了ACE，能够等价实现相似动力模式预报过程，无需重建模式，更易于推广。关键词：相似-动力模式，参考态，相似更新周期，动力相似预报。初稿时间：2005年9月29日；修改稿时间：2006年3月31日。资助课题：国家自然科学基金项目（40575036，40233031和40375025）。作者简介：任宏利，男，1979年生，博士，主要从事气候动力学和短期气候预测研究。Email：INTRODUCING THE UPDATING OF MULTIREFERENCE STATES INTO DYNAMICAL ANALOGUE PREDICTIONRen Hongli1,2Chou Jifan21 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 1000812 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000AbstractIn order to effectively utilize the analogue information of historical observati ons, some theoretical and technical problems of the analogue correction of error s (ACE) are further explored in this paper based on the previous studies on anal oguedynamical models. Analyses show that the ACE is the redevelopment of metho d s based on the analoguedeviation equation and analoguecorrection equation of e rrors. On the basis of such idea, a new scheme of dynamical analogue prediction allowing for multireferencestate updating (MRSU) has been developed. In this s cheme, when model integration proceeds to the period of analogue updating (PAU), multiple reference states are reselected and optimal forecast vectors are est i mated from multiforecasts produced by the analoguedynamical model using the hy perplane approximation method. Such a “selectionestimation procedure is peri od ically repeated until the entire forecast is completed. The MRSU experiments of Lorenz model have shown that the MRSU is effective