美国银行业压力测试“压力”不够大

U S Banks Not So Stressful Test 美国银行业压力测试美国银行业压力测试 压力压力 不够大不够大 The government s bank stress tests deserve a B minus 美国政府的银行压力测试应当得到 B 的打分 To give a sustained boost to investor confidence the tests needed demonstrable rigor They achieved that up to a point While worst case loss rates look tough certain loan portfolios in particular commercial real estate at some banks seem to have gotten off lightly Meanwhile the tests numbers for underlying earnings which are needed to offset soaring credit losses could turn out to be optimistic in some cases 为了给投资者的信心带来持续提振 压力测试需要非常严苛 他们在某 种程度上做到了这点 尽管最坏情 况损失率标准看来定得很严厉 但 对一些银行某些贷款组合 尤其是 商业地产方面的贷款组合 的质量 似乎要求低了点 与此同时 对不 包括特殊项目的收益 银行需要这 些收益来抵消不断飙升的信贷损失 的测试结果可能显得有些乐观了 It is hard to quibble with most of the government s worst case loss rates which are calculated for this year and next For example an 8 8 loss rate for first lien mortgages seems suitably tough even when taking into account the aggressive underwriting during the housing bubble The government s 13 8 worst case loss rate forecast for second lien mortgages seems fair But it is a stretch to think Wells Fargo with its large home equity book focused on stressed housing markets will have a lower than sector loss rate of 13 2 the government s worst case expectation 政府的最坏情况损失率是针对今明 两年计算的 很难对其中大部分数 据吹毛求疵 举例来说 即便考虑 到住房泡沫时期的大举放贷 第一 顺位抵押贷款 8 8 的损失率看起来 也很严厉 13 8 这一政府为次顺 位抵押贷款预估的最坏情况损失率 似乎也还合理 但富国银行 Wells Fargo 的大笔房屋净值贷款都是在 陷入困境的住房市场发放的 政府 预计该行这类贷款的最坏情况损失 率为 13 2 低于行业水平 这就 说不通了 The government may have been too optimistic in setting an 8 5 commercial real estate loss rate This sector is just starting to fall apart and defaults may move sharply higher as borrowers find it hard to refinance their loans The government expects a higher 12 6 for BB T s commercial real estate but its portfolio may arguably show higher losses 美国政府将商业地产贷款的损失率 定为 8 5 可能过于乐观 这类贷 款只是刚刚开始大规模出现问题 由于借款人难以对他们的贷款进行 再融资 违约事件可能会加速上升 政府将 BB T 的商业地产贷款损失 率定为较高的 12 6 但该行的这 类贷款可能还会遭受更高的损失 The government s earnings projections also need to be taken with a pinch of salt It is optimistic to assume banks can repeat their first quarter revenue generation for instance Given the Fed has unleashed a tidal wave of liquidity into the system interest rates are going to be extremely volatile for several quarters making bank revenue very hard to predict 政府的收益预期也值得商榷 例如 政府预计银行能够延续第一财季的 收入势头 这有些乐观 鉴于美联 储 Fed 已经向银行体系注入了大量 流动性 未来几个季度的利率水平 将极为波动 这会使得银行收入非 常难以预测 Another reason to be skeptical is very few of the banks have to increase their overall level of Tier 1 capital which includes common and preferred 另一个让人怀疑的地方是 测试认 定很少有银行需要提高它们第一级 shares The government is effectively saying that most large banks are solidly capitalized and were even when investors fled bank stocks earlier this year 资本的整体水平 第一级资本包括 普通股和优先股 政府实际上是说 大多数大型银行的资本状况都很好 即便今年早些时候投资者纷纷撤离 银行类股的时候也是这样 Instead of raising overall capital levels most banks are just increasing the share of capital that is made up of common stock the highest quality capital Lenders that seem to be raising fresh money include GMAC General Motors lending arm which appears to need to boost capital by a lot Also Wells Fargo s offering of common stock announced Thursday suggests it also is planning to raise its capital 目前大多数银行并没有增加整体资 本水平 只是在增加普通股这一最 高质量资本在银行资本中的占比 貌似即将筹集新资本的银行包括了 通用汽车 General Motors 旗下的通 用汽车金融服务公司 GMAC 该 公司需要大举增资 此外 富国银 行周四宣布将发行普通股 这意味 着该行也计划筹集资本 Finally the government has effectively said that it wants banks to have Tier 1 common stock equivalent to 4 of risk weighted assets First investors have to decide whether they have confidence in the risk weightings Then they must decide whether 4 which still translates into 25 to 1 leverage is safe for the unpredictable environment we are in 最后 政府已经表示 希望银行的 第一级普通股相当于风险性资产的 4 首先 投资者必须决定他们是 否对风险性资产有信心 其次 他 们必须确定在我们所处的这个不可 预知环境中 4 的比例是否安全 这个比例仍然相当于 25 倍的杠杆 Toyota In Lapse Sputters In China 反应迟缓令丰田在华业绩受挫反应迟缓令丰田在华业绩受挫 Toyota Motor Corp has hit a pothole in China where its failure to anticipate booming demand for small cars is depressing sales as rivals like General Motors Corp report sharp gains 丰田汽车 Motor Corp 在中国遭遇 挫折 由于未能预见到小型车需求 旺盛 其销售业绩受到抑制 而通 用汽车 General Motors 等竞争对手 同期销量却大幅上升 The sales slump is a blow to the world s biggest auto maker because China is the only major global auto market still growing The problem adds to weakness in other markets for Toyota which is expected Friday to report big losses for the year through March 31 销售下滑对这家世界最大的汽车制 造商来说是一个打击 因为中国是 全球目前唯一一个还在增长的主要 汽车市场 在中国市场遭遇的问题 加剧了丰田在其他市场的疲软 预 计该公司周五将公布 在截至 3 月 31 日的财政年度发生重大亏损 Toyota s China sales in the first quarter of 2009 fell 17 from a year earlier to 125 743 vehicles even as the total Chinese market fueled by rising demand for small cars grew 4 to 2 7 million vehicles GM s sales gained 17 to 363 317 vehicles including commercial microminivans made by SAIC GM Wuling Automobile Co in which GM holds a minority stake Other big producers like Japanese 丰田今年一季度在中国市场的销售 量较上年同期下降 17 为 125 743 辆 而同期中国汽车市场总 销量在小型车需求上升的带动下增 长 4 达到 270 万辆 该季度通 rival Nissan Motor Co also reported strong first quarter sales GM on Tuesday said its China sales rose an even faster 50 in April Toyota is expected to report April sales for China early next week 用汽车 GM 销量增长 17 至 363 317 辆 其中包括上汽通用五菱 SAIC GM Wuling Automobile Co 生产的微型商用车 通用在该公司 持有少数股份 其他大型汽车制造 商同样也宣布一季度在华销售业绩 强劲 比如日本的日产汽车 Nissan 通用汽车周二称 其 4 月份在华销 量升幅高达 50 预计丰田将于下 周初公布 4 月份在华销量 The root of Toyota s China problem is a slow response to increasing demand outside China s biggest cities for small affordable cars an unexpected lapse by a company known for its fuel efficient vehicles and generally seen as adept at grasping changes in customer desires 丰田在中国的根本问题是 对中小 城市小型经济型轿车需求上升的形 势反应迟缓 对于丰田这样一家以 节能型车而闻名 而且通常被认为 很善于抓住客户需求变化的企业来 说 这实在是一个意想不到的失误 Chinese consumers have been snapping up such cars especially after the government in January announced stimulus measures that cut sales taxes on cars with engines of 1 6 liters or smaller and offered rebates for rural residents buying new cars Meanwhile the sweet spot of China s market has been shifting inland a trend that accelerated last year when coastal manufacturing hubs were hit by slumping demand for Chinese 中国消费者一直在踊跃购买这样的 车 特别是今年 1 月份之后 政府 当时宣布了刺激汽车消费政策 对 发动机排量在 1 6 升以下的车下调 购置税 并对农村居民购买新车提 供折扣 与此同时 中国市场的 甜 exports 蜜点 一直在向内陆地区转移 去年 随着沿海制造业基地受到中国出口 商品需求下滑的冲击 这一趋势开 始加速 Nissan whose first quarter China sales rose 29 and GM have been opening showrooms in smaller cities and rural areas rolling out no frills small cars for farmers and other less well off residents 日产汽车一季度在中国的销量上升 29 该公司及通用一直在中国中 小城市和农村地区设立车辆销售展 示厅 面向农村人口和其他不太富 裕的居民推出基本配置的小型车 Toyota s lineup in China is short on affordable fuel efficient small cars The company found themselves without appropriate products and enough retail outlets in inland markets to meet the shift says Yale Zhang a Shanghai based analyst at U S consulting firm CSM Worldwide Toyota s product mix is skewed and more focused on larger cars like its Camry and Crown models he says They re paying a high price for that 而丰田在中国推出的车型中缺乏既 经济又节油的小型车 美国咨询公 司 CSM Worldwide 驻上海分析师张 豫 Yale Zhang 说 丰田发现 他们 没有适当的产品 在内地城市也没 有足够的销售点以适应这一市场变 化 他说 丰田的产品组合不够均 衡 更侧重于大排量车 比如凯美 瑞和皇冠 张豫说 他们为这一点 付出了高昂的代价 Toyota s stumble in China follows a banner 2008 when its sales rose 17 to 585 000 vehicles 丰田发言人 Hitoshi Yokoyama 说 小型车需求在迅速上升 但从较长 时期来看 我们相信在中国汽车市 场上 各种类型的车都将继续实现 需求增长 不论是运动型多用途车 家用轿车 还是豪华车 我们打算 继续执行我们的全系列产品战略 To prevent further declines Toyota is scrambling to boost output of 1 6 liter engines for the Corolla lineup by about 65 at its plant in Tianjin China people familiar with the matter say But they say it may take three months or more to achieve the target 丰田在中国其实有一款小型车 雅 力士微型轿车 但从去年 5 月登陆 中国市场以来 这款车一直销售缓 慢 原因是其售价相对其车型大小 来说显得太昂贵 同为微型轿车的 通用雪佛兰乐骋基本款售价大约 10 500 美元 而雅力士起价在 13 500 美元左右 Toyota also has a commercialmicrominivan affiliate But it only started selling the vehicles in 2007 and sold just 1 400 or so in the first quarter of this year GM s Wuling affiliate sold 230 000 microminivans in the quarter nearly two thirds of the company s total sales in China 丰田同样也有微型商用车 但该公 司从 2007 年才开始销售这类车 今 一季度只售出 1 400 辆左右 而该 季度通用五菱的微型车销量为 23 万 辆 占该公司在华总销量近三分之 二 Only about 25 of all passenger cars Toyota sold in the first quarter in China came equipped with engines of 1 6 liters or smaller the cars that benefit from the tax cut Nearly 60 of GM s passenger cars fit that bill and including the Wuling microminivans GM s figure was 80 今年一季度 丰田在中国售出的全 部乘用车中 只有大约 25 的车发 动机排量在享受购置税优惠所要求 的 1 6 升或 1 6 升以下 而通用有接 For Nissan such vehicles accounted for 64 of first quarter sales 近 60 的乘用车满足税收优惠条件 如果把通用五菱微型车也计算在内 则这个比例是 80 日产汽车一季 度的这个数字是 64 People are coming in to take advantage of the government incentives to buy 1 6 liter cars but we don t have much to offer says a Toyota dealer in the southern city of Shenzhen The problem is Toyota isn t ramping up production of 1 6 liter engines fast enough 位于广东深圳的一家丰田经销商说 消费者想来买 1 6 升的车型 以便 能享受政府的优惠政策 但我们没 有多少可以提供给他们的 问题在 于 丰田没能足够迅速地开始增产 1 6 升发动机车型 Toyota aims to increase the share of Corollas its most popular model in China that have 1 6 liter engines to 50 from about 30 Toyota executives say They hope to reach that target by summer Most Corollas now are built with 1 8 liter engines But even with the change the portion of tax cut eligible Toyotas would only rise to about 30 from 25 The Corolla s first quarter sales fell 10 from a year earlier 丰田汽车管理人士透露 公司计划 将花冠车中 1 6 以下排量的比例从 30 左右提高到 50 花冠是该公 司在中国最畅销的车型 他们希望 这个夏天能达到这一目标 目前大 部分花冠车都是 1 8 升排量 但即 使作出上述调整后 符合优惠条件 的丰田车比例也只是从 25 上升到 30 花冠一季度的销量较上年同 期下降了 10 The Toyota executives admit they were caught off guard We didn t expect demand for small cars and the overall market to recover so fast one 丰田管理人士承认 他们的确是疏 忽了 一位管理人士称 我们没有 says 预见到小型车需求和总体市场复苏 得这么快 Millionaires No Longer Feel Wealthy 百万富翁没了富有的感觉百万富翁没了富有的感觉 A new study by Fidelity Investments finds that millionaires don t feel wealthy anymore largely because of the global financial crisis 富达投资 Fidelity Investments 的一 项新研究发现 百万富翁不再感觉 到富有 这主要是受全球经济危机 影响 The study an online poll of more than 1 000 people with investible assets of at least 1 million excluding workplace retirement accounts and any real estate holdings found that 46 of millionaires didn t feel wealthy That is a huge jump from last year when only 19 of millionaires said they didn t feel wealthy 这项研究在网上调查了 1 000 多名 百万富翁 他们的可投资资产都至 少有 100 万美元 不包括退休金帐 户和房产投资 研究发现 46 的 百万富翁不再觉得富有 这个比例 较去年明显上升 去年只有 19 的 百万富翁说他们不再觉得富有 Why at a time when most people feel lucky to have a job would millionaires feel unwealthy 这是为什么 在大多数人都为有份 工作而庆幸的时候 这帮百万富翁 反而会不觉得富有 Mainly it reflects their investment losses More than 40 said the reason they no longer felt wealthy was because of stock market losses The millionaires reported an average household income drop of 19 along with investment losses of 19 and real estate losses of 28 他们的投资损失是其中主要原因 超过四成的受访者表示 股市损失 是他们不再觉得富有的原因 这些 百万富翁的家庭平均收入下滑了 19 投资损失和房产损失分别达 到了 19 和 28 Not surprisingly wealthier millionaires felt well more wealthy Those with at least 1 8 million in investible assets were more inclined to call themselves wealthy 毫不奇怪 更富有的百万富翁会觉 得自己更有钱 那些拥有至少 180 万美元投资资产的人更倾向于以富 人自居 Asked what made them feel wealthy most said to live within means with little or no debt and with spending under control 在被问到什么让他们觉得富有时 大多数人的回答是 简约生活 避免 负债以及量入为出 While many millionaires recognize they are doing better than the average investor last year s market volatility and loss of assets have forced them to reassess what the term wealthy means to them said Gail Graham executive vice president of Fidelity Investments 富达投资执行副总裁格拉汗姆 Gail Graham 说 尽管很多百万富翁知道 他们比普通投资者的状况要好 但 去年的市场动荡和资产缩水还是迫 使他们重新评估 富有 一词对他们 的含义 What do you think is feeling wealthy based more on your own gains and losses than on the finances of those around you 读者们 你们是否觉得 富有 的感 觉主要来自于自己的收益与亏损 而不是取决于周围人的财务状况 Ads In Australia Oppose Rio Chinalco Deal 澳大利亚议员拍广告反对中铝力拓澳大利亚议员拍广告反对中铝力拓 交易交易 Australian political opposition to a proposed US 19 5 billion investment by Aluminum Corp of China Ltd in Anglo Australian mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd was raised to a new level Saturday as two prominent members of the upper legislative house launched a joint advertising campaign calling for the ruling Labor government to block the deal 澳大利亚政界对中国铝业公司 Aluminum Corp of China 简称 中铝公司 拟斥资 195 亿美元投资英 国 澳大利亚矿业巨头力拓 Rio Tinto Ltd 交易的反对声势上周六达到了 一个新高度 澳大利亚参议院两位 重要议员联合发起了一场广告攻势 呼吁执政的工党政府否决这一交易 The move will have little influence on whether the proposed tie up gets approval from the Australian government because that decision lies solely with Treasurer Wayne Swan But it could signal wider discontent among politicians about a wave of proposed Chinese investments in Australian companies 此举对澳大利亚政府是否批准这一 交易没有什么影响 因为是否批准 交易只取决于澳大利亚国库部长斯 万 Wayne Swan 但此事却可能表 明 中国对澳大利亚公司的投资浪 潮引发了澳大利亚政坛更为广泛的 不满 Nick Xenophon nonparty senator from South Australia and Barnaby Joyce the leader of the National Party in the Senate jointly filmed a television commercial calling on the Australian government to block iron ore asset sales to what they describe as foreign governments 来自南澳大利亚州的无党派参议员 色诺芬 Nick Xenophon 以及国家党 National Party 参议院领袖乔伊斯 Barnaby Joyce 联合拍摄了一部电 视商业广告 呼吁澳大利亚政府否 决将铁矿石资产出售给他们所谓的 外国政府 This isn t about stopping a takeover by a foreign company this is about a takeover by a foreign government As a nation we must protect our key strategic resources Mr Xenophon said in a statement 色诺芬发表声明称 这不是在阻止 一家外国公司的收购交易 这是由 一个外国政府进行的收购案 作为 一个国家 我们必须保护自己的重 要战略资源 Businessman Ian Melrose is funding the publicity campaign 商人梅尔若斯 Ian Melrose 资助了这 一公关活动 The ads come just over a week after the official opposition called on the government to block Chinalco s proposed investment in Rio citing national interest grounds 就在这则广告播出一周前 澳大利 亚最大在野党以国家利益为由呼吁 政府否决中铝公司对力拓的投资交 易 The Rio deal would give Chinalco as much as an 18 stake in the Anglo Australian miner as well as direct stakes in a number of its mines 根据交易条款 中铝公司将获得力 拓至多 18 的股权 并直接入股力 拓的数个矿业资产 Friday the treasurer approved an application by China s Anshan Iron 上周五 澳大利亚国库部长斯万批 Steel Group Corp to buy a stake of as much as 36 28 in Australia s Gindalbie Metals Ltd subject to certain conditions 准中国鞍山钢铁集团公司 Anshan Iron Steel Group Co 简称 鞍钢 集团 收购澳大利亚 Gindalbie Metals Ltd 不超过 36 28 的股份 但需遵 守一些先决条件 Top China Executive Leaves BofA Merrill 中国银行家任克英已从美林离职中国银行家任克英已从美林离职 Veteran China banker Margaret Ren has left Bank of America Merrill Lynch people familiar with the situation said Friday 知情人士上周五透露 中国资深银 行家任克英 Margaret Ren 已经离开 美林 Merrill Lynch The bank has lost several senior staff since Bank of America Corp completed its acquisition of Merrill Lynch on Jan 1 Wall Street banks that have been bailed out by the U S government have lost staff to rivals because of the stringent oversight and restrictions on pay and bonuses that came with government help 自 1 月 1 日美国银行 Bank of America 完成了对美林的收购以来 该行已经失去了数位高级员工 由 于随政府救助而来的严格监管和对 薪酬和奖金的限制 获得美国政府 救助的华尔街银行的员工纷纷跳槽 到竞争对手公司 The people familiar with the matter didn t disclose the reason for Ms Ren s departure from the investment 上述知情人士没有透露任克英上周 bank last week nor did they say whether she will be moving to another company Ms Ren couldn t be reached for comment 离开这家投资银行的原因 也没有 透露她是否会加入另外一家公司 记者无法联系到任克英发表置评 Ms Ren was hired as c