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2011 WORD 2011 PDFWORD WOED WOED 2011 879cca pdf 2011 PDF WROD PDF 2011 1 2 7 40 Sales of previously owned homes in the US rose for the first time in seven months in February while sale prices fell by their most in at least 40 years National Association of Realtors 503 Figures from the National Association of Realtors showed that existing home sales rose by per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of units last month still per cent lower than a year ago 1 489 1999 2 485 The rise comes after sales fell in January to a level of C the lowest since records began in 1999 Sales had been expected to fall modestly again this month to a level of Economists said that the rise was a positive indication for housing and the financial markets but that it was not clear evidence that residential real estate was about to improve Lehman Brothers Zach Pandl The rise in sales is an important first step said Zach Pandl an economist at Lehman Brothers But I wouldn t call it the end of the problems in housing 2 1968 House prices fell per cent C the biggest one month drop since the NAR began keeping records in 1968 C to a median price of 195 900 2011 2 Dear Economist Tarquin 9 3 6 There is a legend about the last king of the Romans Tarquin An old witch came to Tarquin and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price Tarquin laughed at the offer The witch burned three of the books and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price Tarquin refused again 3 9 3 3 The witch burned three more books and offered to sell Tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine This time Tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked What sort of demand curve is that Chris McMahon Chris McMahon by e mail Dear Mr McMahon Forget the demand curve this is a two player negotiation over the division of economic surplus Tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain The sibyl witch is such an uncouth label responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price 3 3 Tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy that would be a supply glut Once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers Tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre emptive offer 3 3 6 6 Another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so called durable monopoly problem Tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy and then come back later with a cut price offer to buy a second or third By destroying two trilogies the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible take it or leave it offer Forward thinking stuff but then she was flogging prophecies 2011 3 2005 The number of US students going to graduate school for science and engineering hit an all time high in 2005 offering a glimmer of hope to policymakers and business chiefs who have lamented that Americans are not interested in science National Science Foundation 2 A new survey conducted by the National Science Foundation shows that enrolment of US citizens and permanent residents in science and engineering graduate programmes increased 2 per cent to a record 339 550 3 4 3 The survey also showed a 4 per cent rise in first time enrolments by foreign students following three years of decline However total enrolment of foreign students in those subjects dropped 3 per cent the second year in a row with a decline American Association for the Advancement of Science Kei Koizumi Kei Koizumi the director of the R o Susan Athey 4 o o John Bates Clark o Paul Samuelson o Joseph Stiglitz o Steven Levitt Nobel You might think that if there s one thing an economist should be able to tell you how to do it s successfully list an item on the auction website eBay Auction theorists are after all celebrated in the profession one of them Susan Athey won the John Bates Clark medal in April Clark medallists who include Paul Samuelson Joseph Stiglitz and Steven Levitt are scarcer than Nobel laureates Yet although the theory of auctions is well developed its predictions are sensitive to wrinkles in reality For example the standard economic assumption that people are rational is usually a good one when the price of beer rises most people drink less beer But auctions require if he thinks that she thinks that I think that he thinks chains of reasoning that tend to have weak links Those links can easily break if any bidder has any reason to suspect that any other bidder is irrational eBay Another theoretical conundrum is entry to the auction Most auction theorists assume a fixed number of bidders all poised and ready to bid But while economists can assume bidders into existence eBay sellers have to go out and hook them 3G o Paul Klemperer This is no minor oversight of auction theory Paul Klemperer one of the economists behind the massive 3G auctions for mobile phone operators has shown that trivial seeming features of an auction can have big and disastrous effects by repelling bidders For these reasons and others wise auction theorists would avoid predicting how a specific auction design will work without knowing much more about the context 2011 5 eBay Fortunately for economists eBay offers solutions as well as problems With hundreds of thousands of auctions starting every day the auction site provides masses of data And if the publicly available data isn t enough it s also easy to conduct an experiment in the field studying bidders in their natural habitat University of Arizona David Reiley eBay Rama Katkar eBay David Reiley an economist at the University of Arizona has been studying online auctions since before eBay existed In a recent paper with Rama Katkar he investigated whether reserve prices in eBay auctions should be open or secret eBay Auction theory offers an argument that a secret reserve price is better A secret reserve price allows bidders to see each others gradually ascending bids and thus draw confidence that they are not alone in prizing the item Even though the bids are too low to beat the reserve they serve an important purpose of reassuring bidders that others are also interested An open reserve price on eBay makes that reassurance impossible nobody can submit a bid below the open reserve and lacking any signs of confidence from other bidders there is a danger that nobody may submit a bid above it either 50 There are too many imponderables to tell whether this theoretical argument is what really counts in practice So Katkar and Reiley put the theory to the test by simply selling 50 matched pairs of collectible cards half with an open reserve price and half with a secret reserve price of the same level Their conclusion contrary to the theoretic argument is that secret reserve prices are counterproductive Far from stimulating interest they seem to put off bidders who perhaps fear that a secret reserve is secret because it is far too high Not wishing to waste their time many of them just click back on their browsers and find somewhere else to bid eBay Amazon eBay The conclusion may not shake the world but the method is important David Reiley was one of the first economists to realise that the internet was generating vast amounts of researchable data Now that data from sites ranging from eBay and Amazon to is enriching the study of economics It may enrich a few eBay sellers too The Undercover Economist Little Brown Tim Harford s book The Undercover Economist Little Brown is out now in paperback 2011 6 OPEC Opec is to study further the effect of the falling US dollar on its economies following calls for it to price oil in currencies other than the greenback The move which emerged at the summit of cartel leaders in Riyadh was an attempt to bridge the divide within the group over how to respond to the dollar s decline Iran and Venezuela had pushed for Opec to move away from the dollar in the face of strong opposition from the summit s host Saudi Arabia Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad Iran s president said after the leaders meeting that the falling dollar meant oil producers were subsidising the US government and people They get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper he said We all know that the US dollar has no economic value 16 2000 44 63 2006 2 The dollar has dropped 16 per cent this year against a basket of major currencies and 44 per cent against the euro since the last Opec summit in Caracas Venezuela in 2000 Iranian officials have said that the average price of a barrel of their oil so far this year is at 63 only 2 higher than for the same period of 2006 Priced in euros oil has been cheaper this year than last year Finance and foreign ministers from Opec countries are to meet in Abu Dhabi in the next few weeks to discuss the effect of the dollar a move hinted at in an oblique reference in the summit s closing declaration Prince Saud Al Faisal On Friday Prince Saud Al Faisal Saudi Arabia s foreign minister warned that the dollar could collapse if the US currency was mentioned in the declaration His remarks C made in what was supposed to be a closed ministerial meeting C were accidentally broadcast to reporters After the summit Prince Saud played down the significance of the ministers further examination of the dollar problem saying it did not have any hidden implications and reflected Opec members duty to maximise the return from their resources 2011 7 Some while ago I read a newspaper story saying male cyclists who rode a lot risked impotence because of the damaging effect of the saddle on their reproductive organs It quite made my day In my opinion anything that stops cyclists breeding is to be welcomed as an unmitigated good I hate cyclists At least I hate the ones I see in London every day Outwardly they may appear to be nice respectable law abiding middle class people and perhaps they normally are But the moment they straddle their bikes something snaps It is not just the self righteousness that gets to them It is a deep seated sense of injustice On the one hand they feel smug and superior yet on the other they are constantly humiliated by the knowledge of their acute vulnerability The unfairness of it all fills them with such outrage that they turn into complete nutters gripped by a desire for vengeance on a world that has wronged them so cruelly Their contempt for the law is breathtaking They routinely ignore red traffic lights menacing pedestrians crossing the road when it ought to be safe They cycle the wrong way along one way streets notably outside our local primary school where they play dodge em with the parents and children every morning They race over pedestrian crossings and along the pavements whenever it suits them the more aggressive of them screaming abuse at anyone who gets in their way Yet heaven help anyone car driver or pedestrian who strays even momentarily into a cycle lane Does it matter Yes very much Obviously cyclists flagrant disrespect for the law is a threat to public safety It also affects the quality of life in London not just by making walking unpleasant and sometimes even frightening but by contributing to a sense of lawlessness and disorder More important it is bad enough that a particular group of road users should regard themselves as above the law it is much worse that the government and police should connive in it Why should cyclists be allowed to commit dangerous traffic offences at will while vast numbers of police traffic wardens and private sector contractors assisted by spy cameras and other technology are ready to pounce on car drivers for even the most trivial violations and punish them with heavy fines the confiscation of their vehicles or worse It is time London cracked down on cyclists behaviour I do not want to stop people cycling but I do want them to realise that the green halo hovering over their helmets does not put them in a special category of road users to whom no laws apply any more than cycling to the supermarket gives them the right to shoplift with impunity I realise the difficulty At present it is difficult to punish cyclists for breaking the law The police stop a cyclist for jumping a red light she gives them a false name and address and off she goes the wrong way up a one way street There is nothing much anyone can do 16 Except there is It is time to introduce cyclist licensing All cyclists over the age of 16 using public roads should be required to hold a licence They would not need to pass a test to obtain one but the system would have to be self financing requiring applicants to pay a fee This is not asking much when you consider that cyclists are otherwise freeloaders on road infrastructure that is overwhelmingly paid for by motorists Licensing would transform enforcement Cyclists would be required to carry their licences with them at all times providing proof of their identity Those stopped for an offence who failed to produce one would have their cycles confiscated until they did so As with motorists cyclists endangering pedestrians or other road users would have their licences endorsed with three offences leading to a ban 30 Today s piffling fines C 30 for riding on the pavement C should also be drastically raised Then enforcement could become self financing As with motorists local authorities could employ teams of wardens to hunt down and penalise errant cyclists or else turn the job over to private contractors I realise not all cyclists are bad just a few months ago I saw one stop at a red light But the good ones will benefit from these measures if the rest of us hate cyclists less So that is what I would change I would introduce cyclist licensing now for a safer fairer and altogether more civil society 2011 8 Thomson Financial 40 Citigroup 11 2002 Bank of America CCB 42 It s not all grim in investment banking at least not out east Asia Pacific ex Japan deal sizes are up 40 per cent year to date according to Thomson Financial Resurgent markets are benefiting securities trading In an otherwise ugly third quarter Citigroup generated net earnings of in the region not far short of the entire 2002 contribution Bank of America s stake in China Construction
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