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精选全国职称英语英汉对照上百例(第四十九篇)29. Iran is unlikely to use its oil weapon first. But if the U.S. were to impose punitive measureseither through the United Nations Security Council or with a smaller coalition of nationsIran would probably retaliate. And if a limited supply cut failed to ease international pressure, Iran could up the ante by cutting off supplies to a U.S ally. One possible target: resource-poor Japan, which imports percent of its crude from Iran. 9伊朗不大可能率先使用其石油武器。但如果美国强行施加惩罚性措施一一无论是通过联合国安理会还是通过规模小一些的国家联盟伊朗很可能进行报复。进而,如果有限的石油供应减少不能缓解国际压力,伊朗可能提叶赌注,切断对美国的某个盟友的石油供应。一个可能的目标是资源匮乏的日本。日本%的原油从伊朗进口。 . Then there is Irans trump card. If Tehran believes that a U.S. or Israeli air strike against one of its nuclear facilities is likely, it might well stage military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf to remind the world that it can obstruct the flow of 20 percent of the planets oil supply at the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Such a threat was recently made by Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammade and, it followed through, could interrupt the global supply chain and trigger a sharp and immediate spike in oil prices. 另外,伊朗手中握有王牌。如果德黑兰认为,美国或以色列可能空袭其某一核设施,伊朗很可能在波斯湾举行军事演习,让世界明白它能在极具战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡阻断全球20%的石油供应。内政部长穆斯塔法保尔穆罕默德最近就发出了这样的威胁。如果真这么做,可能打断全球石油供应链,并引发油价骤然剧烈地上涨。 . Some analysts argue that it is less dangerous for Washington to simply accept a nuclear Iran than to risk the damage that sharp Iranian production cutsor Iranian retaliation against a U.S. or Israeli military strikemight do to U.S. interests. 一些分析家认为,对华盛顿来说,较之冒伊朗石油急剧减产、伊朗对美国或以色列的军事打击进行报复的危险对美国利益可能造成的破坏,索性接乏一个核伊朗危险要小一些。 . But the Bush administration fears that Iran might use its nuclear program to assert political dominance in the region and sell nuclear material and expertise to other states, and possibly to terrorist groups. 但布什政府担心,伊朗可能利用其核项目在该地区确保政治上的主导地位,向其他国家出售核材料及技术,而且可能出售给恐怖主义组织。 . The U.S. will continue over the next several months to try to push sanctions through the Security Council. But the council is increasingly unlikely to impose them. 在未来的几个月里,美国将继续试图使安理会通过制裁决议。但安理会越来越不大可能实施制裁。 . If the Bush administration decides it cannot use the UN process to compel Iran to back down, it will probably look for other levers of political and economic coercion, including attempts to recruit a coalition of the willing that is prepared to temporarily cut energy and other commercial ties with Tehran. The success of such a coalition strategy would depend on the number of countries willing to join. 如果布什政府判定,它不能利用联合国程序迫使伊朗放弃铀浓缩计划它可能会寻求其他政治和经济的高压手段,包括努力招募一个“自愿联盟”,准备暂时中断与德黑兰的能源及其他商业关系。这样一种联盟战略的成功与否取决于自愿加入国家的数量。 . Iran and the U.S. have agreed to face-to-face talks on the situation in Iraq. Although Iran says its nuclear program will not be on the agenda, the U.S. is sure to broach the subject and to search for any slack in Tehrans bargaining position. 伊朗和美国已经同意就伊拉克境内局势进行面对面的对话。尽管伊朗称核计划将不列入对话议程,但美国必定要提出这个话题,并从德黑兰讨价还价立场中寻找任何有懈可击的环节。 . It is unlikely to find any. Irans willingness to talk has more to do with efforts to convince a domestic audience that it has become the go-to power on regional issues and to show that U.S. attempts to stabilize Iraq arent going well. 美国不大可能找到任何有懈可击的环节。伊朗愿意对话,更多地是因为它想极力让国内民众相信,在地区问题上它已变成可以依靠的强国,并想让世人明白美国稳定伊拉克局势的努力进展不畅。 . When the nuclear subject is raised, the two sides are likely to reiterate their mutually exclusive positions, raising the danger that the meeting could end up hardening mutual mistrust. Though they agree that oil makes for an effective weapon, Tehran and Washington dont see eye to eye on anything else. And thats bad news for those w
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