国际财务管理课件全.ppt

InternationalFinancialManagement 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Textbook E F Brigham J F Houston FundamentalsofFinancialManagement 10thedition 沈洪涛 沈艺峰改编 高等教育出版社 2005 1 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Referencebook 中国注册会计师协会编 财务成本管理 中国财政经济出版社 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Aboutthecourse PerformanceEvaluationCourseAttendance15 Assignment15 FinalExam70 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview OverallrequirementsPrepareamathematiccalculator PreparesomeA4paperanddohomeworktimely TakingNotesinclassisnecessary Readfinancialnewsandthinklikeafinancialworker shareitwithclassmates 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Ch1Introduction 1 1WhatisFinanceandwhatisFinancialManagement 1 2GoalsofFinancialManagement1 3Summaryofthecourse 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 1 1WhatisFinance 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview WhatisFinance moneyresources income etc supplyorgetmoneyforaproject thescienceofmanaging privateorpublic money 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview ThreeinterrelatedareasofthescienceofFinance 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview WhatisFinancialManagement FinancialManagementisanareaoffinancedealingwiththefinancialdecisionseconomicsubjectsmakeandthetoolsandanalysisusedtomakethesedecisions Inthiscourse wemainlystudythefinancialmanagementofcorporations i e corporatefinance 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 1 Aboutcorporations FormsofBusinessOrganization SoleproprietorshipPartnershipCorporation 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Soleproprietorships Partnerships AdvantagesEaseofformationSubjecttofewregulationsNocorporateincometaxesDisadvantagesDifficulttoraisecapitalUnlimitedliabilityLimitedlife 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Corporations AdvantagesUnlimitedlifeEasytransferofownershipLimitedliabilityandeaseofraisingcapitalDisadvantagesDoubletaxationCostofset upandreportfiling 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Thecourseismainlyaboutfinancialmanagementofcorporations However itsbasicideasapplytosoleproprietorship partnershipaswellasindividualsorothersocialinstitutions 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 2 Corporatefinancialdecisionsinclude FinancingDecisionsCapitalBudgetingWorkingCapitalManagementDividendPolicy 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview AssetsLiabilities EquityCurrentassetsCurrentLiabilitiesLong termdebtLong termassetsPreferredStockCommonEquityRetainedEarnings BalanceSheet 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 3 Basictoolsandanalysis TimevalueofmoneyRiskandreturn Cashflowanalysisisstressed Incomingsandoutgoingsofcash 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview WhytostudyFinancialManagement careerconcerns personalfinancialplanning 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Inshort youwilllearnfromthiscourse Fundamentalprinciplesandpracticesofcorporatefinanceprevailingininternationalcontext 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 1 2Goalsoffinancialmanagement Goal1 ProfitMaximization or EPS earningspershare Maximization 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Easytouseandunderstand Basedonsomewhatstandardizedaccountingpractices Netincomemayreflectfirms potentialtoproducecashflowsovertime Re pp 24 Reasons 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview INCOMESHEETSalesLess SalesdiscountsandallowancesNetsalesLess SalestaxCostofsalesGrossprofitLess SellingexpenseGeneralandadministrativeexpenseFinancialexpenseIncomefrommainoperationAdd Incomefromotheroperations 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview OperatingincomeAdd InvestmentincomeNon operatingincomeLess Non operatingexpenseAdd Adjustmenttoprioryear sincomeandexpenseIncomebeforetaxLess IncometaxNetincome 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview somecriticism Cannotreflectriskinfuturecashflows cash Accountreceivable Cannotreflecttimevalueofmoney thisyear nextyear Cannotreflecttheefficiencyofinvestments input output Earningsmanipulation inventorycost Fixedassetdepreciation 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Goal2 ShareholderWealthMaximization or StockPrice Maximization 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Thisgoalisnowpreferredbecauseofthefollowingreasons Firstly thepurposeofsettingupabusinessistomaximizetheowners wealth 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Secondly stockpricemaximizationisbetterthanprofitmaximizationforthefollowingreasons 1 Currentstockpricereliesuponcurrentearnings aswellasfutureearningsandcashflow 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 穗恒运A中报预增2 2倍股价累计上涨超一倍天和财富网2012年07月11日09 14导读 新快报讯记者陈庆麟报道电价上调对企业业绩刺激仍在继续 昨晚 穗恒运A 000531 发布业绩预告显示 预计今年上半年公司净利润1 26元至1 45亿元 同比增长2 2倍至2 7倍 每股收益约在0 37元 0 42元 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Basicfactorsthataffectstockprice p 24 ProjectedcashflowstoshareholdersTimingofthecashflowstreamRiskofthecashflows 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Tobespecific thefactorsinclude DecisionsmadebymanagementTheexternalconstraintsLevelofeconomicactivityandcorporatetaxesStockmarketconditionsp 24Fig 1 2 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 2 Itreflectsthecapitalinput outputrelationship 3 ItmayreflectriskandtimingofEPS 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Relationshipbetweenthe2goals Profitmaximization stockpricemaximization despiteagenerallyhighcorrelation 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Nowitiswidelyacknowledgedthattheprimaryfinancialgoalis shareholderwealthmaximization or stockpricemaximization 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview But still managementcannotignoreaccountingprofit EPS WHY Otherthingstothinkaboutinfinancialmanagement Dofirmshaveanyresponsibilitiestosocietyatlarge Isstockpricemaximizationgoodorbadforsociety Shouldfirmsbehaveethically p 17Agencyrelationship p 19 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview 1 3Summaryofthecourse OneGoalTwoToolsFourBlocks ShareholderWealthMaximization TimeValueofMoneyRiskandReturn FinancingDecisionCapitalBudgetingDividendPolicyWorkingCapitalManagement 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview OneGoal Twotools Fourblocks 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview Assignment1 Readtextbook pp 14 17 Thegoalsofthecorporation pp 23 25 Managerialactionstomaximizeshareholderwealth DoesitmakesensetotrytomaximizeEPS Lookforanexampletoshowthestockpriceisaffectedbyacertainevent SetupaPersonalCashFlowRecord andimproveyourownfinancialplanning 2020 4 8 Ch1AnOverview PersonalCashFlowRecord CHAPTER2RiskandRatesofReturn Returnandrisk conceptsandmeasuresRisk Stand aloneriskVS PortfolioriskRiskpricing CAPM SML 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 1Returnandrisk conceptsandmeasures Rateofreturn Amountreceived Amountinvested Return AmountinvestedForexample if 1 000isinvestedand 1 100isreturnedafteroneyear therateofreturnforthisinvestmentis 1 100 1 000 1 000 10 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Theaboveistheso calledrealizedrateofreturn Forstocksyouhavenotsoldyet itismoremeaningfultotalkabouttheExpectedrateofreturn 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Returndistribution continuous Investmentreturnpossibilitydistribution 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Returndistribution dispersed riskless cyclical countercyclical 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Return Calculatingtheexpectedreturnforeachalternative 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Summaryofexpectedreturnsforallalternatives ExpreturnHT17 4 MP15 0 USR13 8 T bill8 0 Coll 1 7 HThasthehighestexpectedreturn andappearstobethebestinvestmentalternative butisitreally Havewefailedtoaccountforrisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Investmentrisk Risk 1 Uncertainty 2 Thechancethatsomeunfavorableeventwilloccur Investmentrisk Uncertaintyofthesecurities ratesofreturn prices theprobabilityofearningalowornegativeactualreturn 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Investmentreturnpossibilitydistribution 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Howtodescriberisk StandarddeviationCoefficientofvariance 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Riskmeasure1 standarddeviation 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Example someinvestmentalternatives returns 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Standarddeviationcalculation 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Comparingstandarddeviations 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Commentsonstandarddeviationasameasureofrisk Standarddeviation i measurestotalrisk Thelarger iis themorelikelythatactualreturnsdeviatefromexpectedreturns Forinvestmentalternativeswiththesameexpectedreturn iisagoodmeasuretocomparestand alonerisk Butforalternativeswithdifferentexpectedreturns no 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Comparingriskandreturn Seemoutofplace 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Riskmeasure2 CoefficientofVariation CV Astandardizedmeasureofdispersionabouttheexpectedvalue thatshowstheriskperunitofreturn 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Example riskrankingsbycoefficientofvariation Collhasthehighestdegreeofriskperunitofreturn HT despitehavingthehigheststandarddeviationofreturns hasarelativelyaverageCV 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn WhethertochoosetheonewiththelowestCVdependsonourRiskattitude Riskpreference Riskneutral Riskaversion 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Investorattitudetowardsrisk Riskaversion assumesinvestorsdislikeriskandrequirehigherratesofreturntoencouragethemtoholdriskiersecurities P 60RequiredinvestmentreturnK KRF RP 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Riskpremium RP thedifferencebetweenthereturnonariskyassetandlessriskyasset whichservesascompensationforinvestorstoholdriskiersecurities P 61 Riskpremium Returnoverrisklessasset Returnoverriskyasset 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Howtoreducerisks Don tputyoureggsinonebasket Isitso 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 2Stand aloneriskandPortfoliorisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Stand alonerisk theriskofholdingjustoneasset P 52Portfoliorisk theriskofholdingagroupofassetsp 62 NobelPrizewinner HarryMarkovitz 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn AmixofdifferentsecuritiesiscalledAportfolioIsaportfoliogoodorbad Decideitsexpectedreturnandriskfirst but how 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Calculatingportfolioexpectedreturn Expectedreturnofaportfolio 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Example Assumeatwo stockportfolioiscreatedwith 50 000investedinbothHTandColl ExpectedreturnofHT ExpectedreturnofCOLL 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Analternativemethodfordeterminingportfolioexpectedreturnis 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn But theriskofaportfolio p isgenerallyNOTtheweightedaverageofthe ofthecomponentassets 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn CalculatingportfoliostandarddeviationandCV Expectedreturnofportfolio 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Commentsonportfolioriskmeasures p 3 3 ismuchlowerthanthe iofeitherstock HT 20 0 Coll 13 4 p 3 3 islowerthantheweightedaverageofHTandColl s 16 7 Portfolioprovidesaveragereturnofcomponentstocks butlowerriskthantheaverageofthecomponentstocks 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Generalcommentsaboutrisk Why Foratwo stockportfolio Combiningstocksnotperfectlycorrelatedinaportfoliogenerallylowersrisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Moststocksarepositivelycorrelatedwiththemarket k m 0 65 35 foranaveragestock 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Now let screateaportfoliobyaddingstocksonebyone Whatwillhappentotheportfolio srisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Creatingaportfolio 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Itmeans Diversificationmayreducerisk But itcannoteliminaterisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Breakingdownsourcesofrisk Risk Marketrisk Diversifiablerisk Thepartofasecurity sriskthatcannotbeeliminatedbydiversification p 68 Thepartofasecurity sriskassociatedwithrandomevents itcanbeeliminatedbyproperdiversification p 68 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Marketrisk suchas Unexpectedchangesininterestrates Unexpectedtaxratechanges foreigncompetition andtheoverallbusinesscycle 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Diversifiablerisk firm specificrisk Thepartofasecurity sriskassociatedwithrandomevents itcanbeeliminatedbyproperdiversification p 68 Suchas strike topmanagementchangelawsuitCEO shealthconditionchange 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Sincediversifiableriskmaybeeliminatedbyproperdiversification toportfolio holders itismarketrisksthatreallymatter 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Yes Forexample Interestratechangesaffectallfirms butwhichwouldbemoreaffected a Retailfoodchainb Commercialbank Dosomefirmshavemoremarketriskthanothers 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn So itismeaningfultomeasuremarketriskofdifferentfirms But HOW 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 3 Beta ameasureofmarketrisk Itmeasureshowanindividualstock sreturnsvarywithmarketreturns It sameasureofthe sensitivity ofanindividualstock sreturnstochangesinthemarket 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Betacoefficientsfordifferentfirms 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn beta 1 averagemarketrisk Thestockisnomoreorlessvolatilethanthemarket beta 1 morevolatilethanthemarket ex technologyfirms beta 1 lessvolatilethanthemarket ex utilities Moststockshavebetasintherangeof0 5to1 5 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Canthebetaofasecuritybenegative Yes ifthecorrelationbetweenStockiandthemarketisnegative i e i m 0 Ifthecorrelationisnegative theregressionlinewouldslopedownward andthebetawouldbenegative However anegativebetaisrare 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn BetacoefficientsforHT Coll andT Bills 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Comparingexpectedreturnandbetacoefficients SecurityExp Ret BetaHT17 4 1 30Market15 01 00USR13 80 89T Bills8 00 00Coll 1 7 0 87ItseemsthatRiskiersecuritieshavehigherreturns 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn WeknowhowtomeasureriskstandarddeviationorCVforoverallriskbetaformarketrisk Weknowhowtoreduceoverallrisktoonlymarketriskthroughdiversification Then howtopricerisk Let shaveabreak 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 3Riskpricing CapitalAssetPricingModel CAPM SML 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 3 1CAPM Forarisk averseinvestor whenheundertakeshigherrisk hewillrequirehigherratesofreturnasacompensation TB 3 isOK Stock 7 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn WhatistheRequiredRateofReturn Requiredrateofreturn Thereturnonaninvestmentrequiredbyaninvestorgivenmarketinterestratesandtheinvestment srisk 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Calculatingrequiredratesofreturn CAPM ki kRF kM kRF i kRF RPM i kM marketreturn orreturnofanaverage risksecurity kM kRF MarketRiskPremium 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Whatisthemarketriskpremium RPM Additionalreturnovertherisk freerateneededtocompensateinvestorsforassuminganaverageamountofrisk Itssizedependsontheperceivedriskofthestockmarketandinvestors degreeofriskaversion Variesfromyeartoyear butmostestimatessuggestthatitrangesbetween4 and8 peryear 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Anexample AssumekRF 8 andkM 15 Themarket orequity riskpremiumisRPM kM kRF 15 8 7 Giventhebetasofthefivesecuritiesasfollows SecurityExp Ret BetaHT17 4 1 30Market15 01 00USR13 80 89T Bills8 00 00Coll 1 7 0 87 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Calculatingrequiredratesofreturn kHT 8 0 15 0 8 0 1 30 8 0 7 0 1 30 8 0 9 1 17 10 kM 8 0 7 0 1 00 15 00 kUSR 8 0 7 0 0 89 14 23 kT bill 8 0 7 0 0 00 8 00 kColl 8 0 7 0 0 87 1 91 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Note TheabovearetherequiredrateofreturninvestorsdecidebythepricingmodelCAPM Whatwillyoufindifyoucomparethemwiththeexpectedrateofreturnwecalculatedbefore 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Expectedvs Requiredreturns 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Actuallyjustthesedifferencesprovideyouwiththeopportunityofarbitrage 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 3 2SML securitymarketline WhentheRPmandKRFarefixed basedontheCAPMmodel wemaydrawalinetoshowtherelationshipbetweenriskmeasuredbybetaandtherequiredrateofreturnforindividualsecurities p 76 ThislineiscalledSML 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn IllustratingtheSecurityMarketLine 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn SMLequationappliestoindividualassetaswellasaportforlio The coefficientofaportfolioIstheweightedaverageofthe softhecomponentassets P w1 1 w2 2 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Anexample Equally weightedtwo stockportfolio Createaportfoliowith50 investedinHTand50 investedinCollections Thebetaofaportfolioistheweightedaverageofeachofthestock sbetas P wHT HT wColl Coll P 0 5 1 30 0 5 0 87 P 0 215 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Calculatingportfoliorequiredreturns Therequiredreturnofaportfolioistheweightedaverageofeachofthestock srequiredreturns kP wHTkHT wCollkCollkP 0 5 17 1 0 5 1 9 kP 9 5 Or usingtheportfolio sbeta CAPMcanbeusedtosolveforexpectedreturn kP kRF kM kRF PkP 8 0 15 0 8 0 0 215 kP 9 5 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn FactorsthatchangetheSML Whatifinvestorsraiseinflationexpectationsby3 whatwouldhappentotheSML SML1 ki SML2 00 51 01 5 1815118 DI 3 Risk i 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn FactorsthatchangetheSML Whatifinvestors riskaversionincreased causingthemarketriskpremiumtoincreaseby3 whatwouldhappentotheSML SML1 ki SML2 00 51 01 5 1815118 DRPM 3 Risk i 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn VerifyingtheCAPMempirically TheCAPMhasnotbeenverifiedcompletely Statisticaltestshaveproblemsthatmakeverificationalmostimpossible Somearguethatthereareadditionalriskfactors otherthanthemarketriskpremium thatmustbeconsidered 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn MorethoughtsontheCAPM Investorsseemtobeconcernedwithbothmarketriskandtotalrisk Therefore theSMLmaynotproduceacorrectestimateofki ki kRF kM kRF i CAPM SMLconceptsarebaseduponexpectations butbetasarecalculatedusinghistoricaldata Acompany shistoricaldatamaynotreflectinvestors expectationsaboutfutureriskiness 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn TheseunsolvedproblemsmaybesolvedthroughYOUREFFORTS 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Summary Howtomeasurerisk standarddeviation CV beta Howtoreducerisk diversification Howtopricerisk securitymarketline CAPM 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Foraportfolio 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Assignment2 1 Keydefinitions p 81 DiversifiableriskMarketriskCapitalassetpricingmodelBetacoefficientSecuritymarketline 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn 2 TrueorFalseTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioistheweightedaverageoftheexpectedreturnsofthecomponentassets Theriskofaportfolioistheweightedaverageoftherisksofthecomponentassets Thebetacoefficientofaportfolioistheweightedaverageofthebetasofthecomponentassets 2020 4 8 Ch2RiskandReturn Therequiredreturnofaportfolioistheweightedaverageoftherequiredreturnsofthecomponentassets SMLequationshowstherelationshipbetweenasecurity smarketriskanditsrequiredrateofreturn 3 p 842 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 Doyouhavethesepuzzles Buyamobilebylump sumpaymentorbyinstallment Arrangesavingsforafutureexpenditure Whatkindofloanstoapplyfor Buyorsellabondyouareholding 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney CHAPTER3TimeValueofMoney CompoundingandDiscountingofSingleSumsAnnuitiesTypesofInterestRates 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney CH3TheTimeValueofMoney Tofindtheanswer you llhavetoknow 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney 3 1CompoundingandDiscountingSingleSums 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney Weknowthatreceiving 1todayisworthmorethan 1inthefuture Thisisduetoopportunitycosts Theopportunitycostofreceiving 1inthefutureistheinterestwecouldhaveearnedifwehadreceivedthe 1sooner 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney Ifwecanmeasurethisopportunitycost wecan Translate 1todayintoitsequivalentinthefuture compounding Translate 1inthefutureintoitsequivalenttoday discounting 2020 4 8 Ch3TimeValueofMoney Timelines Showthetimingofcashflows Tickmarksoccurattheendofperiods soTime0istoday Time1istheendofthefirstperiod year month etc ortheb