阻滞增长模型.doc

阻滞增长模型Y=84779 86727 88761 90409 92420 93267 94774 96259 97542 98705 100072 101654 103008 104357 105851 107507 109300 111026 112704 114333 115823 117171 118517 119850 121121 122389 123626 124761 125786 126743;T=1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30;for t=1:30 x(t)=exp(-t); y(t)=1/Y(t);endc=zeros(30,1)+1;X=c,x;B=inv(X*X)*X*yfor i=1:30, z(i)=B(1,1)+B(2,1)*x(i); s(i)=y(i)-sum(y)/30; w(i)=z(i)-y(i);endS=s*s; Q=w*w; U=S-Q; F=28*U/Q for j=1:30, Y(j)=1/(B(1,1)+B(2,1)*exp(-j); endplot(T,Y)B = 1.0e-005 * 0.9315 0.8670F = 10.7066x=1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000;y=84779 86727 88761 90409 92420 93267 94774 96259 97542 98705 100072 101654 103008 104357 105851 107507 109300 111026 112704 114333 115823 117171 118517 119850 121121 122389 123626 124761 125786 126743;plot(x,y,r.)xlabel(年份)ylabel(人口)clearsyms a b;c=a,b;A=125786 126743 127627 128453 129227 129988 130756 131448 132129 132802;B=cumsum(A);n=length(A);for i=1:(n-1) C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1)/2;endD=A;D(1)=;D=D;E=-C;ones(1,n-1);c=inv(E*E)*E*D;c=c;a=c(1);b=c(2);F=;F(1)=A(1);for i=2:(n+10) F(i)=(A(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1)+b/a;endG=;G(1)=A(1);for i=2:(n+10) G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1);endt1=1999:2008;t2=1999:2018;Gplot(t1,A,*,t2,G) G = 1.0e+005 * Columns 1 through 6 1.2579 1.2691 1.2765 1.2839 1.2914 1.2989 Columns 7 through 12 1.3065 1.3141 1.3217 1.3294 1.3372 1.3450 Columns 13 through 18