5G移动网络发展蓝图

Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 1 The Roadmap to 5G Mobile Networks 5G 移移动动网网络络发发展展蓝蓝图图 Academic research points the way towards the medium term future of the mobile industry 学学术术研研究究为为移移动动通通信信行行业业的的中中期期发发展展指指明明道道路路 Reference Code TE011 001214 Publication Date 14 Feb 2013 Author Jeremy Green Ovum is not liable for any perceived changes of meaning that may occur through translation and that for the avoidance of doubt the original English version should be referred to for any discrepancies Ovum不为任何翻译后可能造成的歧义负责 为避免疑义 任何意义分歧皆以英文原版为主 SUMMARY 摘摘要要 In a nutshell 核核心心概概念念 Forming a vision of the future and developing a roadmap on how to get there is a key task for the wireless industry Alongside vendors and operators academics and researchers play an important role in helping to define possible paths and alternative scenarios 无线通信行业的一项关键任务是建立未来的目标愿景以及实现这一目标的路线图 除了厂商和运营商 学者和研究人员在帮助确定可能的路径和替代方案方面亦发挥重要作用 Ovum view Ovum 观观点点 Managing the vision of the future is an important task for the mobile telecoms industry It is compelled to live in the present where contemporary issues sit alongside planning for future developments As William Gibson famously put it the future is already here it s just not evenly distributed 移动电信行业的一项重要任务是管理未来的愿景 它被迫顺应当前形势 既要面对当下的问题又要规划 未来的发展 正如 William Gibson 所言 未来已经来临 只是还没有大行其道 Even as the impact of recent networking standards and technologies continues to play out someone is already working on the next generation of standards and specifications While LTE which has been The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 2 positioned as 4G is only just becoming a commercial reality in many markets work is already underway on the underlying technology for 5G Late in 2012 the British media made light of a report that a 5G research center had been established at the Univers ity of Surrey The media s amusement derived precisely from the observation that 4G was still a new technology and that it was therefore premature to be even thinking about 5G 尽管最近的网络标准 技术的影响继续发挥作用 但业界已有人致力于发展下一代标准和规范 虽然被定 位为 4G 网络的 LTE 在很多市场上只是刚刚成为一个商业现实 但业界已经展开探索 5G 网络基础技术 的工作 在 2012 年底 英国媒体忽视了关于英国萨里大学已经建立 5G 技术研究中心的报道 这正是因 为媒体基于观察认为 4G 仍是一个新技术 因此考虑 5G 技术还为时过早 In truth the establishment of a 5G innovation center should not come as any great surprise Telecommunications has long since ceased to be a standalone industry and it now overlaps with the media consumer electronics and IT industries Each of these evolves at a rapid pace and in doing so place increasing demands on the infrastructure of connectivity Were telecoms technology not to make any attempt to anticipate the requirements of these complementary industries it would inevitably be a perpetual disappointment When work began on the specification that would eventually form the basis for UMTS few people had heard of the Internet and the World Wide Web did not exist Creating a mobile network that could handle data transmission rather than simply increasing the capacity to carry voice was a significant leap of faith 事实上 5G 技术创新中心的建立毫不奇怪 电信早已不再是一个独立的行业 它的业务现在与媒体 消 费电子产品和 IT 行业重叠 这些行业都在迅速发展 从而日益增加对连接基础设备的需求 如果不试图 预测这些互补性产业的需求 电信技术将不可避免地永久失败 在业界刚刚开始发展 UMTS 通用移动 通信系统 规范时 根本没有几个人听说过互联网和万维网的存在 创建一个能够处理数据传输的移动 网络 而不是简单增加传输语音的网络容量 是观念的一个重大飞跃 Indeed the time taken to move between generations seems to be shortening There was a 15 year gap between 2G and 3G but only a 10 year gap between 3G and 4G This suggests that 5G may be needed more quickly than many suspect 几代网络标准 技术之间实现迁移所需的时间似乎正在缩短 2G 向 3G 技术转移花费了 15 年 但 3G 向 4G 技术迁移只用了 10 年 这表明 5G 技术问世所需的时间可能比许多人猜想的更短 ANALYSIS 分分析析 5G is primarily about sustainability not performance 5G 技技术术主主要要关关注注可可持持续续发发展展 而而非非性性能能 The 5G research center which is established within the Centre for Communication Systems Research in the University of Surrey s Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences is looking to address the anticipated problems created by the shortcomings and the successes of 4G Its director Professor The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 3 Rahim Tofazolli states that the 5G development program is intended to secure the long term sustainability of the wireless industry in the face of two key challenges 建立在萨里大学工程和物理科学学院通信系统研究中心内的 5G 技术研究中心正在寻求解决 4G 技术缺点 和成就可能导致的问题 其主管 Rahim Tofazolli 教授指出 5G 开发计划旨在确保无线通信行业长期可持 续发展 即使需要面对如下两大挑战 the capacity and spectrum shortage caused by the continued growth of mobile data traffic particularly video 由移动数据流量 尤其是视频 持续增长所造成的网络容量和频谱短缺 the increased energy demands caused by the linear relationship between data usage and network electrical power 由数据使用量和电网之间的线性关系导致的日益增加的网络能源需求 The first of these challenges has been endlessly debated with much discussion about how mobile network operators can either hold back the data tsunami or at least ensure that it is properly monetized However Professor Tofazolli argues that the true scale of this has not yet been fully grasped In particular he suggests that there is not enough spectrum to support the current rate of growth At present he says network capacity takes 10 years to double but traffic is doubling every year Between 2015 and 2020 the center s model predicts a 20 fold increase in traffic demand 业界已对第一个挑战争论不休 话题涉及移动网络运营商如何能够控制猛增的数据流量 或至少保证它 能够适当创收 然而 Tofazolli 教授认为移动运营商尚未真正了解数据使用量的真正规模 他特别指出 没有足够的频谱来支持目前的增长速度 Tofazolli 表示目前网络容量需要 10 年的时间来实现翻倍 但流 量每年都在翻番 该中心的模型预测流量需求在 2015 2020 年间将增加 20 倍 The second challenge is less well understood Efforts to reduce the energy consumption of the network are usually presented as a way to reduce an operator s environmental impact and are positioned as part of its corporate social responsibility agenda Where energy usage is presented as a straightforward business issue it is often in the context of emerging market operators being forced to use expensive diesel generators to provide power in locations where grid electricity is not available Yet the relationship between data usage and power consumption is a linear one Without a more energy efficient network technology operators will not be able to afford their electricity bills 第二个挑战不太好理解 努力降低网络能源消耗通常是运营商减少对环境的影响的一种方式 并被定位 为运营商企业社会责任议程的一部分 在能源使用被当作一个简单商业问题的地方 新兴市场运营商往 往被迫在不具备地方电网电力的地方使用昂贵的柴油发电机来供电 然而 数据使用量和电力消耗之间 具备线性关系 因此倘若没有更节能的网络和技术 运营商将无法承受昂贵的电费 The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 4 Better support for data services is the most important challenge 更更好好地地支支持持数数 据据服服务务是是最最重重大大的的挑挑战战 Given the 5G research center s definition of the issues facing the industry it is unsurprising that its primary focus is on supporting data services particularly video Voice is seen as a relatively unproblematic legacy service that needs to supported but one for which the market is saturated and which does not present serious technical or commercial challenges 考虑到 5G 技术研究中心针对行业面临的问题所作出的定义 它的首要重点是支持数据业务 尤其是视频 也就不足为奇了 语音被视为一个相对不成问题的传统服务 它需要 5G 技术的支持 但该市场已经饱和 并且不存在技术或商业上的严峻挑战 The center s research activities focus on 该中心的研究活动主要集中在 wireless backhaul especially the links between base stations and the network 无线回传 特别是基站和网络之间的链接 small cells especially lamp post infrastructure that can be deployed easily 小型基站 特别是可实现轻松部署的 灯柱 基础设备 the use of new frequency bands especially in the 60 100GHz range 新频段的使用 特别是 60 100GHz 频段范围 This last point is particularly important As there isn t much more spectrum available in the bands that have already been used for familiar kinds of communications services opportunities for refarming and simple extensions to neighboring bands are coming to an end However using new spectrum bands will require some fundamental research Not only does the silicon not exist but the propagation characteristics of the radio waves at these frequencies are imperfectly understood The center wants to take the lead in this area by building a four square kilometer physical network on the University of Surrey campus rather than merely a simulation model to act as a test bed 最后这一点尤为重要 由于适用于人们所熟悉的通信服务的频段已经没有太多可用的频谱 频率重用和 简单扩展到邻近频段的机会即将结束 然而 使用新频段需要一些基本研究 不仅硅不存在 人们亦尚未 完全了解无线电波在这些频率上的传播特性 该中心希望在这方面带头 它在萨里大学校园建设了一个 4 平方公里的物理网络 而不是仅仅是一个仿真模型 作为一个测试平台 It is not possible to know exactly what 5G will look like The research program is starting with existing technologies notably LTE Advanced and seeking to enhance and optimize them without the constraints imposed by existing standards From here it will venture further into uncharted waters considering technologies outside of the standards frameworks and disregarding the need for backwards compatibility with existing network deployments This is an approach that makes sense in a blue sky research context as those deploying actual networks can rarely afford to ignore backwards compatibility The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 5 我们还无法确切了解什么是 5G 技术 该研究项目从现有技术 尤其是 LTE A 技术 开始 寻求加强和 优化这些技术 不受现有标准的限制 然后进一步探索未知领域 考虑标准框架以外的技术并忽略与现 有网络部署反向兼容的需要 鉴于那些部署实际网络的运营商很少能够忽略反向兼容性 这种方法在 蓝天研究 的背景下是颇具意义的 Industrial partners will take the research into standards 行行业业合合作作伙伙伴伴将将把把研研究究成成 果果纳纳入入标标准准主主体体 The 5G research center was established through a combination of funding from the UK government and international private investment The UK government s Higher Education Funding Council for England contributed 11 6m while a consortium of mobile operators and infrastructure providers including Huawei Samsung Telefonica Europe O2 Fujitsu Laboratories Europe Rohde Schwarz and AIRCOM International added a further 24m bringing the total funds available to 35m Two other industrial partners have insisted on remaining anonymous for the time being There will be approximately 80 people involved with the project with approximately half of them employed by the Centre for Communication Systems Research The industrial partners will share the intellectual property developed by the venture 英国政府和国际私人投资团体共同出资建立了 5G 技术研究中心 英国政府的英格兰高等教育拨款委员会 贡献了 1160 万英镑 而移动运营商和基础设备供应商组成的财团 包括华为 三星 Telefonica Europe O2 Fujitsu Laboratories Europe Rohde Schwarz 和 AIRCOM International 进一步投资了 2400 万英镑 这使得资金总额达到 3500 万英镑 另外两个行业合作伙伴坚持暂且保持匿名 大约有 80 人将参与该项目 其中约一半为通信系统研究中心所雇用 行业合作伙伴将共享该研究中心开发的知识 产权 The creation of the 5G research center is partly intended to address a perceived decline in the influence of the UK in the creation of standards and specifications Professor Tofazolli argues that the UK has taken a back seat in setting standards since the advent of 2G which is a trend that is partly reinforced by the increasing role of manufacturers rather than operators in the process He hopes that the center will help to make the requirements of operators the key drivers However the industrial partners will take the work done at the center into the standards bodies themselves as they have the manpower and the detailed knowledge of how they work 5G 技术研究中心建立的部分动因旨在应对英国在制定网络标准和规范方面的影响力日渐下降的局面 Tofazolli 教授认为英国自 2G 技术问世后在制定网络标准方面已经退居次要地位 这是一个趋势 制造商 而不是运营商 在这个过程中扮演日益重要的角色是加剧这一趋势的部分原因 Tofazolli 希望该中心 帮助运营商的需求成为网络标准 规范制定的关键驱动因素 但是 鉴于行业合作伙伴有人力且对研究中 心的工作有深刻了解 因此他们自己将把研究中心的工作成果纳入标准主体 The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 6 New business models and network technologies are a likely future requirement 未未来来可可能能需需要要新新的的商商业业模模式式和和网网络络技技术术 The 5G innovation center sits in the engineering dominated Physical Sciences faculty of the University of Surrey Therefore business models are arguably outside of its remit Yet engineers working on new networking technologies need to anticipate future business models as much as they must plan for future applications and usage characteristics From a technology perspective it is important that engineering solutions do not prevent the implementation of alternative business models and they should even facilitate them if possible 5G 创新中心坐落在英国萨里大学工程和物理科学学院 商业模式可以说不在其职权范围之内 然而 由 于从事新网络技术开发的工程师必须为未来的应用和使用特征进行规划 因此他们需要尽可能地预见未 来的商业模式 工程解决方案从技术上讲不会阻止替代性商业模式的实施是十分重要的一点 如果可能 的话 它们甚至应该协助新的商业模式 It is therefore interesting to note that the center is considering some radically different models Foremost among these is a model that has been discussed extensively by Ovum and is gaining increasing traction in the industry the idea of a single neutral host network on which separate commercial entities provide network services and differentiate in terms of their customer facing offerings 因此值得注意的是该中心正在考虑一些完全不同的模式 其中最重要的一个是 Ovum 公司已广泛讨论过 并日益赢得业界关注的一个模式 单独的商业实体在一个中立的托管网络上提供网络服务并突显其面向 客户的产品的差异性优势 Under this model any networking technology that is deployed needs to support infrastructure and spectrum sharing Even more radical perhaps is the idea of customer sharing Evidence has emerged that the long established relationship between network identity and permission accounting and charging models via a billing relationship and communications service addresses for example via a telephone number may be beginning to break down We have previously discussed the declining role of the network operator assigned telephone number as a primary address for communications services and the subsequent rise of over the top addresses 在这种模式下 任何被部署的网络技术都必须支持基础设备和频谱共享 甚至可能是 客户共享 的理 念 已有证据显示网络身份和权限 记账和收费模式 通过计费关系 以及通信服务地址 例如通过 一个电话号码 之间建立的长期关系可能开始解体 我们先前已经讨论过网络运营商指定电话号码作为 通信服务主地址的作用已经下降 且 OTT 通信地址已随后崛起 The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 7 New network architectures could support radically different business models 新新网网络络架架构构可可以以支支持持完完全全不不同同的的商商业业模模式式 The advent of alternative network architectures is equally important as the exploration of new business models So far discussions about heterogeneous networks have emphasized the deployment of multiple radio technologies for example small cells and Wi Fi within the domain of a single operator Debates about the neutral host are similarly premised on the idea that technological evolution and network rollout costs are restoring the natural monopoly in the telecoms industry However this is by no means a foregone conclusion Smarter devices that are able to take a more active role in network selection flatter core networks with fewer elements and self healing and self configuring networks might actually point in the opposite direction Under this scenario it could be possible for local mobile networks to proliferate and for customers mobile devices to make use of them on an ad hoc basis as they currently do with Wi Fi 替代性网络架构的问世与探索新商业模式同样重要 到目前为止 围绕异构网络的讨论都强调在一个单 一运营商领域内部署多种无线技术 例如小型基站和 Wi Fi 关于中立的托管网络的争论也同样基于这 样一个前提想法 技术演进和网络部署成本正在重建电信业的 自然垄断 然而这绝非已成定局 能够 在网络选择方面发挥积极作用的更加智能的终端 只需较少元素的扁平化核心网络 以及自我修复和配 置的网络事实上可能引领相反的发展方向 在这种情况下 本地移动网络可能得到普及 客户的移动终 端亦能暂时利用本地移动网络 如同它们目前利用 Wi Fi 网络一样 Some of the research at the Centre for Communication Systems Research is focusing on technology that could ultimately be used in this sort of context Among the topics being considered are 通信系统研究中心的部分研究重点关注最终适用于这种情况的技术 其中正在考虑的课题是 the opportunistic use of spectrum 频谱的利用机会 device based network selection including sub millisecond finding of available networks 基于终端的网络选择 包括亚毫秒级查找可用网络 using licensed and unlicensed spectrum together 同时使用持牌频谱和无牌频谱 the use of 3GPP standards in unlicensed bands 3GPP 标准在无牌频段中的使用 The Roadmap to 5G Mobi le Networks TE011 0012 14 14 Feb 2013 Ov um Unauthorized repr oduction prohibitedPage 8 APPENDIX Methodology Interview with Professor Rahim Tofazolli of the Centre for Communication Systems Research Faculty of Engineering and Phys