PopulationBurden详细介绍.doc

Population BurdenMany countries will experience aging populations in the next century because of declining birth and mortality rates. China will soon join their ranks.As for the issue of aging, its situation has been growing increasingly severe in spite of the fact most people are still ignorant of the problems it brings about. Firstly, with families becoming smaller and living pace escalating, it is even graver for families to care for aged members adequately. Secondly, aging causes a relative decline in working force in that fewer people have to support the increasing aged people. Consequently, the productivity of the whole society is affected to some extent. Thirdly and most importantly, the aging of population in China resulted from the successful implementation of family planning has not been synchronized with national economic progress.The rapidity of the populations aging has made it more urgent for the adoption of countermeasures. No doubt they key is to build a solid economic foundation. Meanwhile, importance shall be attached to overall social progress by changing the backward situation in social security, welfare and service. Whats more, family care and community services shall also be encouraged.White House Summit Addresses Challenges of Global Aging United Nations records show people the world over are getting older. This is due to better medicine and more food, even in developing countries. Another global statistic: there are fewer younger people able to provide health care and other services for the elderly. Other U.N. statistics show that by the year 2050, people 60 years or older will account for half of the increase in the worlds population. The United States is already experiencing nursing shortages and expects other staffing shortages in health care in the coming years. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described this trend as one of the greatest challenges that most nations will face this century. Nations around the world are taking notice of the challenges of aging, but too many are still wrestling with them independent of one another, when we all stand to benefit from sharing our common solutions to these common problems.Secretary Rice said one of the key goals of the summit was to open international discussions on this trend and to encourage research to provide the answers to the challenges posed by global aging.OverviewPopulation ageing is a shift in the distribution of a countrys population towards older ages. This is usually reflected in an increase in the populations mean and median ages, a decline in the proportion of the population composed of children, and a rise in the proportion of the population that is elderly. Population ageing is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However research by the Oxford Institute of Ageing, one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia, especially as Asia is in stage five of the demographic transition model.Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a total population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the overall median age rose from 29.0 in 1950 to 37.3 in 2000, and is forecast to rise to 45.5 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 23.9 in 1950, 26.8 in 2000, and 37.8 in 2050. In Japan, one of the fastest ageing countries in the world, in 1950 there were 9.3 people under 20 for every person over 65. By 2025 this ratio is forecast to be 0.59 people under 20 for every person older than 65.3Population ageing arises from two (possibly related) demographic effects: increasing longevity and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by increasing the numbers of surviving older people. A decline in fertility reduces the number of babies, and as the effect continues, the numbers of younger people in general also reduce. A possible third factor is migration.Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the largest contributor to population ageing in the world today4. More specifically, it is the large decline in the overall fertility rate over the last half century that is primarily responsible for the population ageing in the worlds most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently developed countries in the future.The speed of population ageing is likely to increase over the next 3 decades (Lutz, 2008), yet only a few countries in the world have the evidence to determine if their growing older populations are living the extra years of life in good or poor health. A compression of morbidity (Fries, 1980) would mean reducing disability in older ages, whereas an expansion would see an increase in poor health with increased longevity. Another option has been posed for a situation of dynamic equilibrium (Manton, 1982). This is crucial information for governments if the limits of lifespan continue to increase indefinitely (Oeppen, 2002). The World Health Organizations suite of household health studies is working to provide the needed health and well-being evidence, including, for example the World Health Survey and Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). These surveys cover 308,000 respondents aged 18+ years and 81,000 aged 50+ years from 70 countries.The Global Ageing Survey, exploring attitudes, expectations and behaviours towards later life and retirement, directed by George Leeson, and covering 44,000 people aged 4080 in 24 countries from across the globe has revealed that many people are now fully aware of the ageing of the worlds population and the implications which this will have for their lives and the lives of their children and grandchildren.Canada has the highest per capita immigration rate in the world, based largely on the rationale of countering population ageing. The C. D. Howe Institute, a conservative think tank, has suggested that immigration cannot be used a viable means of countering population ageing.5 This conclusion is also seen in the work of other scholars. Demographers Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen comment, as fertility sinks further below replacement level, increasingly higher levels of annual net migration will be required to maintain a target of even zero population growth.6Aging around the worldSee also: Aging of Europeand Aging of JapanAsia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population ageing in the near future. In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50. The Oxford Institute of Ageing2 is an institution looking at global population ageing. Its research reveals that many of the views of global ageing are based on myths and that there will be considerable opportunities for the world as its population matures. The Institutes Director, Professor Sarah Harper 3 highlights in her book Ageing Societies 7 the implications for work, families, health, education and technology of the agieng of the worlds population.Most of the developed world (with the notable exception of the United States) now has sub-replacement fertility levels, and population growth now depends largely on immigration together with population momentum which arises from previous large generations now enjoying longer life expectancy.edit Ageing, well-being and social policyMain articles: Dependency ratio, Generational accounting, & Pensions crisisThe economic effects of an ageing population are considerable. Older people often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may be spending less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Some economists (Japan) see advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity to progress automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a shift from GDP to personal well-being.However population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, whose cost is likely to increase dramatically as the population ages. This would present governments w