交通出租车定价论文：基于系统动力学的城市客运交通出租车定价分析.doc

出租车定价论文：基于系统动力学的城市客运出租车定价研究【中文摘要】出租车是城市客运交通系统不可缺少的部分,在城市客运交通市场的经营、发展和稳定中发挥着重要作用。出租车定价涉及政府、企业、驾驶员与乘客的切身利益,如何协调好不同利益主体间的关系,分析城市客运出租车定价的动态性、复杂性,是一个需要迫切解决的问题。本文在分析出租车行业不同利益主体间关系的基础上,基于系统动力学的理论构建了城市客运出租车定价模型,为出租车行业的健康发展提供有效的定价方案。论文分析了城市客运出租车定价影响因素,结合经济学理论阐述了出租车定价的组成和基本原理,调查了国内22个城市的出租车价格;对城市客运出租行业利益主体地位进行了重点阐述,剖析了政府管理部门、出租车公司、驾驶员和乘客等不同利益主体间的关系。基于系统动力学理论构建了城市客运出租车定价模型,以出租车服务水平和价格作为影响潜在出租车需求的因素,考虑了出租车行业各利益主体之间关系。通过分析出租车定价中各个系统模块结构、模块因素间的因果关系,建立了出租车定价的因果关系图和系统流图,构建了出租车定价系统动力学模型,并对所建模型进行了参数估计与有效性检验,验证了模型的有效性。结合对哈尔滨市出租车行业运营数据的调查,具体分析了起步价变化、里程价变化、燃油附加费变化、驾驶员工资变化等多种情景,发现出租车价格的变化对潜在需求影响呈上升趋势。并为哈尔滨市出租车发展提出了相关的政策建议,如采用电话叫车、实施信息化、调整价格、增加驾驶员工资等。【英文摘要】Taxi is an indispensable part of urban passenger transport system, which plays an important role in the management, development and stability of urban passenger traffic market. Taxi pricing involves the vital interests of the government, enterprises, driver and passenger, how to coordinate the relationship between different stakeholders, and analyze the dynamic, complexity influence of urban passenger taxi pricing, is an urgent problem to solve. Based on the analysis of different stakeholder relation in taxi industry, this paper constructs the model of city passenger taxi pricing by the theory of system dynamics, providing effective pricing schemes for the healthy development of the taxi industry.This paper analyzes the influence factors of urban passenger taxi pricing, then combining economics theory expounds the composition and basic principle, and investigates 22 cities taxi pricing in China. Emphasis on the status of main benefit body in urban passenger rental industry, analyze the different stakeholders relationship between government management department, taxi company, drivers and passengers, etc.Based on system dynamics theory, taking the taxi service level and prices as potential influence factors of taxi demand, and considering the relations between the interest subjects of taxi industry, this paper constructs the model of city passenger taxi pricing. Through the analysis of causal relationship of system module structure and module factors of taxi pricing, establish the taxi pricing causality diagram system and flow diagram, not only construct the dynamics model of taxi pricing system, but also take parameter estimation and validity check of the model.Combing the operation data of taxi industry in Harbin, this paper specifically analyzes the change of starting fare, fuel surcharge, driver wage changes and other scenarios, and find that the change of taxi pricing showed a rising trend on influence of potential demand, this paper also puts forward relevant policy suggestions for the taxi development of Harbin, such as dial-a-ride, implementation of information, price adjustment, and the increase of drivers salary, etc.【关键词】出租车定价 利益主体 系统动力学 交通供需【英文关键词】system dynamics taxi pricing stakeholders transport supply and demand【目录】基于系统动力学的城市客运出租车定价研究摘要4-5ABSTRACT5第1章 绪论8-161.1 研究的背景和意义8-91.2 国内外研究现状9-131.2.1 国外研究现状9-111.2.2 国内研究现状11-131.2.3 国内外研究现状分析131.3 本文主要研究内容13-141.4 研究技术路线14-16第2章 城市客运出租车定价基础理论分析16-292.1 城市客运出租车定价影响因素分析16-192.1.1 出租车市场供求关系16-172.1.2 出租车经营成本172.1.3 燃油价格17-182.1.4 居民支付能力182.1.5 外部成本的影响182.1.6 与其他客运交通的竞争18-192.2 城市客运出租车价格基础理论19-232.2.1 出租车价格基本构成19-202.2.2 出租车定价基本方法20-212.2.3 出租车定价水平分析21-232.3 城市客运出租车行业利益主体关系分析23-282.3.1 国内外出租车主要经营模式现状23-242.3.2 我国出租车行业利益主体地位分析24-262.3.3 我国出租车行业利益主体关系分析26-282.4 本章小结28-29第3章 城市客运出租车定价的系统动力学模型29-433.1 基于系统动力学的出租车定价基本步骤29-313.1.1 出租车定价与系统动力学适用性分析293.1.2 出租车定价系统动力学分析主要步骤29-313.2 城市客运出租车系统分析31-333.2.1 系统建模目标31-323.2.2 系统边界与模型要素32-333.3 城市客运出租车定价系统动力学模型结构分析33-383.3.1 系统模块结构33-343.3.2 模块要素因果关系34-363.3.3 城市客运出租车定价因果关系图36-383.3.4 城市客运出租车定价模型系统流图383.4 模型参数估计与检验38-423.4.1 模型参数估计38-413.4.2 模型有效性检验41-423.5 本章小结42-43第4章 哈尔滨市客运出租车定价实例分析43-564.1 哈尔滨市出租车发展调查43-464.1.1 哈尔滨市出租车拥有量434.1.2 哈尔滨市出租车价格发展历程43